Virginia Politics

Washington Post staff writer Tim Craig was online Friday, Oct. 12 at 1 p.m. to discuss what the Saturday meeting of the Virginia Republican Central Committee could mean for the looming match-up between ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) and Rep. Tom Davis (R). He also took questions about the latest Washington Post poll, the overall political climate in Virginia and what it could mean for the 2007 General Assembly candidates and the 2008 presidential candidates.

A transcript follows.

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Tim Craig: Hello all. Welcome. I am ready to answer as many questions as I can about Virginia politics, including next years U.S. Senate race and the current battle for control of the Virginia General Assembly.

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Alexandria, Va.: About the political climate this year? Do you think the abusive driver fees issue will motivate voters to turnout next month? If so, are the Democrats doing enough to exploit it? Thanks

Tim Craig: The abuser driver fees certainly captivated voters interest during the late summer/early fall. As many know, over 165,000 people signed an online petition vowing to vote against any incumbent delegate or senator who supported the fees. The big question now is whether those people will show up to vote? If they do, a lot of incumbents - Democrat and Republican - could be in trouble. But my hunch is most of those people won't vote. It's hard to get people to vote in what amounts to a local election. In 2003, the last year both the Senate and House were up for election, only about 31 percent of voters showed up. With that said, even if 1/3 of the people who signed the petition follow through on their promise, you will see a lot of new faces in Richmond next year. Hows that for saying: I am not sure. The real thing the abuser fees did was undermine the GOP transportation package. It now becomes much harder for incumbents to run on, because they only remind voters of the fees. In that sense, the issue was a big gift to the Democrats.

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Washington, D.C.: If the GOP opts for a convention, does Davis run for re-election in the House?

Tim Craig: Lots of speculation about this. Davis supporters say he can win a covention or a primary. Others have their doubts. My bet is he is doesn't run if it is a convention, but I wouldn't bet much either way. If he decides against a Senate run, Davis could seek reelection for the House. But he will face a tough reelection in that district next year as well. He could just go into the private sector for a few years and make big bucks. He could then reemerge in 2012 to take on Sen. James Webb, who many Republicans believe will be vulnerable. He could also be a good GOP candidate for governor in 2009. A Northern Virginia Republican for that race has yet to emerge.

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Fairfax, Va.: Any chance the GOP convinces Gen. Peter Pace to jump into the fray?

Tim Craig: I have been unable to reach General Pace.. I have my doubts that Pace will run for the Senate. It's very hard for a newcomer to break into Virginia Republican Party politics. But General, if your reading, call me!

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Tyson's Corner, Va.: Gov. Warner certainly is popular. But so was George Allen, until he made a monumental gaffe. The political winds certainly favor a Democrat this year, but I'm hoping The Post gives Warner the kind of scrutiny a front-runner should get, and if he makes a gaffe, The Post puts it on a section front for several days in a row, like it did with Allen's "macaca" gaffe. (Though I'd bet that Warner won't do that, and he'd handle it smarter).

Tim Craig: Yes, in Virginia, no election is a forgone conclusion. Warner's reputation now rests on the fact many voters like his personality, and his ability to schmooze with folks from all walks of life. They also think he did a good job as governor. But running for a federal office is a lot different than running for a state office. As soon as Warner flushes out his positions on abortion, gay rights, illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, etc, etc, his numbers will start to drop. The challenge for Warner will be next summer or fall, when a poll will come out saying Warner is up only 10 points instead of 30. Then he could face a round of stories about a "tightening race" and questions about whether he is losing momentum. I think it is safe to assume that Warner's best day is today - a 30 point lead. He can only go down from here. But Warner has to happy with being in the 60s against either Gilmore or Davis. The problem for the GOP is that the national party doesn't have a lot of money, and they have a lot of Senate seats to defend next year. If Warner is still up significantly next summer, the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee could decide its money is better spent elsewhere.

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Fairfax, Va.: Tim,

Wasn't Jim Webb down by 30-some points to George Allen in December 2005? In other words, a lot can change between now and November 2008, right?

Tim Craig: Yes, a lot can happen. Yes, Allen was crushing Webb. Yes, Warner can have his own "macaca moment." Yes, Hillary Clinton or another Democratic presidential nominee could be a drag on Warner (though no evidence of that so far). Yes, some big scandal about Warner could emerge. Yes, Bush's approval rating could leap to 70 points in a year. Yes, there could be another terrorist attack that sends many voters back to the GOP. Yes,Warner could stumble in the debates. Yes, some well-funded, rock-star GOP candidate could emerge. It's early. Next year will be fun. My job will be interesting. So just stay tuned.

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Falls Church, Va.: Tim, good article this morning. Don't you believe this is actually good news for Tom Davis? It is clear people don't know him, and people know Gilmore...yet, they are still very similar in their head-to-head matchup with Warner. Doesn't this also imply that Gilmore is dead in the water while Tom has only upward to move?

Tim Craig: I do see several positives for Davis in the poll. As he said in today's story, he only has room to grow. He has not even really begun to broaden his name ID. And he will have money to do it. I also think it is interesting that Davis is down to Warner by only 20 points or so in Northern Virginia. That is not a bad place for him. Webb beat Allen by roughly the same margin in NOVA and still only eeked out a 9,000 vote win. In Prince William County, which Webb won narrowly, our poll has Warner with just a six point lead over Davis. Davis could arguably improve his numbers in Northern Virgina - its harder to see how Gilmore improves much up there. Davis's challenge will be getting George Allen-like numbers of ROVA. On the other hand, I see some possible warning signs for Davis in the GOP primary. In Northern Virginia, Davis is beating Gilmore by only 12 points. In a primary, Davis will have significantly broaden his lead on his home turf to make up for Gilmore's expected advantage in the Richmond suburbs and other places down state.

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Fairfax, Va.: Do you think that Gilmore's support for a primary in the late 90's makes him look hypocritical when he wants a convention now?

Tim Craig: No comment. But I will say the 1997 Richmond Times Dispatch article in which Gilmore advocates for a primary that year is being widely spread around to GOP activists who will decide tomorrow between a convention and a primary.

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Washington, D.C.: Where does Mark Warner stand on immigration issues? I can only assume that because he probably still harbors national ambitions that he tends to favor a more comprehensive approach that offers a guest worker program and even citizenship. Is that correct?

Tim Craig: I wrote a story last month about a speech Warner gave at the University of Virginia. I wrote the following based off his speech:

Warner said he wants to secure the borders but also would be sympathetic to allowing those already in the country illegally to stay.

"The notion we are going to be sweeping through with mass deportations in communities -- I just don't think it's realistic," said Warner, who later added, "I hate some of the feelings that our country is looking and feeling as if it's becoming anti-immigrant."

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Washington, D.C.: In your parade of possible but unlikely events, you suggest that a terrorist attack might drive folks back to the GOP. Is this your sense based on polling? It seems to me that, after trillions of dollars and six years, if we are still that vulnerable, the GOP might be held accountable.

Tim Craig: No, I didn't mean to imply I had any inside information. But I was talking to a GOP operative a few weeks ago. He said he didn't think Warner could be beaten, unless there was some major event, such as a terrorist attack. But you are right, its unclear how it would play politically, and lets all just hope and pray we never have to find out

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Vienna, Va.: I think the abusive driver fees are ridiculous and we should raise the gas tax and reform VDOT if we want to build more roads. But let's be fair -- if everyone who voted for the fees deserves to get booted, then Gov. Kaine needs to be punished too if he ever runs for anything else. He can't wash his hands completely.

Tim Craig: I will let the voters make that decision. Kaine will argue he tried to raise taxes to pay for roads in 2006, but GOP legislators blocked him. Kaine said last week he accepted the fees because he wanted a compromise that would put the transportation fight behind him.

I posted a entry on our Virginia politics blog - blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics - about Kaine's approval rating, which stands at 63 percent.

Of the respondents who oppose the fees, 60 percent also approve of Kaine's job performance. But Republican leaders are letting voters know that Kaine is the one who amended the fees so that they apply only to in-state motorists.

Kaine said he wasn't sure how to collect a fee from an out-of-state driver.

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Washington, D.C.: Any speculation on the political future of Gov. Tim Kaine? Does he have to wait around in private practice for an opening like George Allen did after his four years as governor?

Tim Craig: Kaine may not have many options when he leaves office in 2009. With Webb in the Senate, and not up for reelection till 2012, the governor appears headed to the private sector.He's also been mentioned as a possible VP, but six weeks ago the governor said he was interested in the job. But he could be a smart choice for a Democratic nominee who decided the road the White House runs through Virginia next year. (I have my doubts about Webb being selected, despite the conventional wisdom)

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Washington, D.C.: Do Republicans really expect that the flip-flopper charge will stick on Mark Warner because he raised taxes after promising not to? Doesn't the whole electing Tim Kaine to succeed him and like a close to 80 percent approval rating when he left office show that Virginians were okay with it, especially since Warner tried to cut as much fat from the budget before raising taxes?

Tim Craig: I have my doubts about this strategy. But I am a journalist, not a political consultant.

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Tim Craig: That is all the time I have today. Thanks. Sorry about not getting to all the questions. But you can email me at craigt@washpost.com. You can also follow state politics and next year's U.S. senate race through out blog, which is located at blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics

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Richmond, Va.: Can you explain the unease that conservatives have with Tom Davis? Are there specific issues where he and the base disagree? Are they still upset about him supporting Sen. Warner for renomination in 1996?

Tim Craig: There are any number of issues that may be problematic for Davis among conservatives. First, he got a D rating from the NRA last year. In parts of Virginia, that may be a fact many voters cannot ignore. Second, he has been inconsistent in his views on abortion. Third, he supported some past efforts at the state level to raise taxes, including the failed referendum in 2002 that would have raised the sales tax in NOVA to build roads. Davis also has earned a reputation for being willing to reach out across party lines, and in today's polarized political environment that offends some conservatives. But Davis is a good politician who has built up years of goodwill with GOP activists around the state. I hear from many arch conservatives who say they will give Davis a chance. He would have a real shot at winning a primary, especially if he can convince a few NOVA indepedents to vote in it.

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