Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Dan Balz
Washington Post Chief Political Reporter
Monday, October 22, 2007 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, Oct. 22 at 11 a.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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East Lansing, Mich.: Dan, suppose you and I were to assume that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. True, to date she has run a stellar campaign and has been effective at humanizing herself more than her past public image has portrayed (e.g. light-hearted, lots of laughs), but I still have a hard time imagining her carrying states that Democratic candidates have a difficult time winning generally(Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, West Virginia). If you put the generic poll numbers aside and view states such as these, what are your impressions?

Dan Balz: Good morning. We'll get right to your questions.

This the argument that John Edwards and Barack Obama are trying to make in their effort to block Sen. Clinton from winning the nomination. Edwards says he's the candidate who can run best throughout the country and would be a nominee that Southern and Western Democrats running for lower office wouldn't shy away from in the general election.

That said, a number of the states that you mention are likely to be up for grabs next year, whether or not Clinton is the nominee. Ohio is a more difficult state for Republicans now than it was in 2004, given the GOP losses there in 2006. Virginia looks like a real swing state at this point, thanks to Democratic successes (consecutive Democratic governors elected, a Democratic senator elected and former governor Mark Warner well ahead of potential GOP rivals for the seat being vacated by Republican John Warner). West Virginia may still be tough, but there are Democrats who believe Clinton would have at least a chance of winning Arkansas. Florida could be a real battleground. Having been down there this past the weekend, even some Republicans worry that Clinton would make the state competitive for the Democrats.

We'll know a lot more once we get well into the general election, but the 2008 electoral map has a number of fresh opportunities for the Democrats and some potential new opportunities for the Republicans, depending on who the nominee is.

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Fairfax, Va.: The Republican candidates debated Sunday night who among them is the most conservative. What do the Democratic candidates debate about, who is the most liberal or who is the most centrist? The Republicans also compared their anti-Democrat pitches. Do any of the Democratic candidates give a preview of what they would be saying to rebut the Republican charges of defeatism in Iraq, tax-and-spendism, love of big government, etc.? Aren't the Democrats guaranteeing their defeat by ignoring the charges against them the Republicans used effectively before and already are using against them now, and in 2008?

Dan Balz: Republicans are focused on the question of who is most conservative because they're trying to consolidate their base. That's the first order of business in any presidential campaign. Dissatisfaction with the field of candidates forces them to emphasize their conservative credentials. Democratic voters are much happier with their field of candidates, so none of them has to spend as much time talking about who is liberal or centrist or whatever.

Republicans also spend a lot of time attacking the Democrats -- and Sen. Clinton in particular -- in an effort to persuade their rank-and-file that they would be the strongest general election candidate. Democrats don't have a particular target yet among the GOP field because the outcome of their nomination battle is less predictable. But Democrats have spent years making the case against President Bush and they will continue to do that in a general election.

Both sides know their lines and to some extent they are very well-known.

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World Series Boston: I heard there was a Republican debate last night. How did it go (we had some other things going on here in town last night)? It sounds like some blood in the water (Brownback pulling out) sharpened the focus and tone for the candidates finally. Go Sox and thanks for letting Kevin Millar cheer us on!

washingtonpost.com: Attacks Sharpen Among Party's Principal Rivals (Post, Oct. 22)

Dan Balz: Thanks, Boston, and congratulations. Yes there was a debate last night -- very lively in fact. Almost as many fireworks as in the eighth and ninth innings up there. You should go enjoy your victory for another day or so. You can catch up with the GOP race later.

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New York: Hey, Dan: In looking at the Republican field, I could see Romney carrying Iowa, New Hampshire and maybe South Carolina (with Bob Jones III's recent endorsement). I then see Giuliani doing very well in various delegate-rich states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, maybe even California. I also see McCain possibly having some strength out West and Huckabee grabbing a few Southern states. Is it possible that we're looking at a brokered convention? If no candidate gets enough delegates to sew up the nomination by March, what do the candidates do for the remaining five or six months until the convention?

Dan Balz: I suspect that if Gov. Romney were to carry Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (I don't know whether you would give him Michigan under those circumstances) that he would be tough to beat in the states that come after that. There is some chance for an extended battle for the nomination, but that is less likely if one of the candidates gets on a roll early.

What you are seeing now is real competition in New Hampshire among Romney, Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain, all of whom see it as a critical test. At the same time, Gov. Huckabee may surprise people in Iowa. A strong second there would give him some bragging rights as well.

As a Republican strategist told me last week, there are scenarios for several of the candidates that would give them the nomination -- and most of them are still plausible.

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Elmira, N.Y.: I am so tired of hearing Sen. Clinton's campaign claiming her success in Senate campaigns in upstate New York means she will have no trouble in red states. Other than one suburban Buffalo district, upstate New York is decidedly purple. Unlike the South, union activity is encouraged. The evangelical movement is small, at best. While upstate citizens have a culture that is more in tune with Alabama or Arkansas, campaigning against the government here will get you nowhere. Bill Clinton could frame his issues and had an aura that could appeal to red state citizens. Hillary Clinton has had upstate New York success, but isn't it laughable to claim that success will translate into a general election?

Dan Balz: My colleague Alec MacGillis had a piece in the Sunday paper about this topic and makes some of the same points. The Clinton camp makes much of her record in winning over voters in upstate New York, as you suggest. For some of the reasons you cite, it's an imperfect model for predicting how she would do in Southern and Western states. The Clinton team argues that she proved that, as voters get to know her better, they warm to her. If she is the nominee, they'll have to pick their spots carefully to test their thesis.

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washingtonpost.com: Some Say Clinton Model Is Flawed (Post, Oct. 21)

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Troy, New York: I saw on the news that Mike Huckabee did very well in the straw poll of values voters on-site for the event (better than 50 percent). Do you think they will coalesce around him as a candidate?

Dan Balz: Gov. Huckabee had a very good day at the Values Voters summit in Washington on Saturday. I attended the Saturday morning session, when both Huckabee and Mayor Giuliani spoke. Giuliani spoke as an outsider addressing a slightly hostile nation. Huckabee spoke as a member of the family, and it clearly paid off when the straw poll results came in. He did get just over 50 percent of the votes cast by those in attendance. A poll that included online votes produced a razor-thin victory for Mitt Romney over Huckabee, but I believe those results are more suspect.

The tougher question to answer is whether social and religious conservatives will coalesce around Huckabee. I think many still have doubts about his potential to win the nomination, even if they agree with him on many issues. Republicans are very focused on winning and are measuring candidates not just by how much they agree with them but by their potential strength in a general election.

Having said that, Huckabee continues to make himself a factor in the race, and as noted earlier he could embarrass some better-known candidates in Iowa.

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Philadelphia: John McCain polls very low and his fundraising is dismal. Why is he still on at least one of the Sunday morning shows every Sunday?

Dan Balz: I would guess the reason is that he's willing to go on those shows and some of the other candidates are more reluctant to go on them. He has been doing Sunday shows for years.

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Pittsburgh: You just said/implied that the parties have skillfully determined how to move us off the couch -- Republicans dangle Clinton in front of us; Democrats dangle Bush. Are we all just boobs and nincompoops swallowing whatever red meat is thrown in front of us? If so, maybe we should say thanks and just watch sports 24/7 on television. By the way: Here last night, Fox had the Red Sox/Tribe. FOX News had the debate. That Murdoch guy must have some brain cells left. Good session today.

Dan Balz: Yes, Mr. Murdoch had the market pretty much cornered last night. Of course, I assume everyone there was tuned into the Steelers game.

I'm not sure I was trying to imply what you say I implied. Let me put it differently: Right now the candidates are talking mostly to their most partisan loyalists -- the folks who vote in every primary or who attend those Iowa caucuses on cold winter nights or show up for party fundraising dinners. As the campaign moves forward the candidates will be talking as well to the swing voters and their rhetoric will change somewhat. So don't tune into Sports Center permanently at this point -- there's a lot of campaigning ahead. After all, the country won't elect a new president until we've gone through the World Series twice more.

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Alexandria, Va.: I didn't see the Republican debate last night but I understand from Post coverage this morning that McCain was outstanding. I have to say that, though I am a Democrat, and though I strongly disagree with McCain on some of the issues, he is the only Republican I could imagine voting for -- primarily because he is the only one who uniformly treats Democratic colleagues and citizens with true respect. I saw him interviewed by Jim Lehrer the other night. He is a class act in a very unclassy business. I think that if McCain goes up against Sen. Clinton we will have a very interesting, entirely substantive fight on our hands and I would welcome it. This country needs it. (With McCain at the helm on one end, hopefully it will be interesting, substantive and civil.) Do you agree with my take on Sen. McCain?

Dan Balz: McCain had a strong night (I'll be writing more about that for my daily "take" on The Trail, which will be on our Web site early this afternoon) but he still faces some serious obstacles before he can think about taking on Sen. Clinton.

Incidentally, he talked to a few of us after doing a town hall meeting in Kissimmee, Fla., on Sunday afternoon, and we talked about what a McCain-Clinton general election might be like. He knows her quite well -- they've traveled together overseas and even knocked back a considerable amount of vodka on one trip, according to legend -- and respects her. They are ideologically poles apart on most issues, but he indicated that he thought they would have a vigorous but respectful debate if they ended up opposing one another.

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Washington: Hi, Mr. Balz! Thanks for chatting today, it's a real treat. What's going on down in the bayou? I've just seen small AP-type stories on the new Republican governor of Louisiana. Is his election out of that crowded field a bellwether for things in that state? Is it a result of Katrina fatigue? Do you think his election will affect the 2008 presidential race in any appreciable way? That just seemed like an interesting story and surprised me a bit. Thanks!

washingtonpost.com: The Fix: Is Jindal's Win a Sign of GOP Turnaround Nationally? (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 21)

Dan Balz: Governor-elect Jindal is a very attractive candidate with a resume that would be impressive for anyone, let alone someone who is as young as he is. I don't think there are significant 2008 implications in his election, other than to remind Democrats that they probably will have a hard time winning Louisiana. Louisiana politics are always more homegrown than in some other states. What a rich political culture down there -- and with Katrina, even more so right now.

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Dan Balz: We've run out of time. Thanks to everyone for sending in questions. Have a great week.

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