Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Military Reporter
Tuesday, October 23, 2007; 12:00 PM

Readers joined Washington Post military reporter Thomas E. Ricks on Tuesday, Oct. 23 at noon ET to discuss the debate in Washington among government, military and intelligence officials over what course to follow in Iraq, and whether people are sick of hearing about the war.

The transcript follows.

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Tom Ricks' Inbox

Ricks has covered the U.S. military for The Washington Post since 2000. Until the end of 1999 he had the same beat at the Wall Street Journal, where he was a reporter for 17 years. His book, " Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq" was published in July 2006.

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Thomas E. Ricks: Okay, let's get going. The first couple of questions are about books.

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Los Angeles: Hello and thank you so much for providing this forum -- it's a great service to your readers, in my humble opinion. I'd like your honest assessment of Jeremy Scahill's book about Blackwater, if you've read it.

Thomas E. Ricks: I haven't read it. I try to read everything published on Iraq, but lately have noticed that big stacks are building up in my home office. So I've started focusing on military memoirs. Indeed, I did an interview recently on NPR with Steve Inskeep about some of them, by Nathaniel Fick, David Bellavia and Kayla Williams.

Books about private security contractors, aka mercenaries, I have tended to put aside. I think the subject is important, but we have a bunch of great Post reporters, led by Steve Fainaru, Karen DeYoung and Dana Hedgpeth, looking at this.

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New York: I recently purchased your book "Fiasco" and, against expectations, find it to be very readable (originally expecting a military history of the occupation). I am halfway through the book. I found your portrait of L. Paul Bremer III to be chilling -- a reclusive and detached individual. If, as has been reported, he may have exceeded his authority in ordering the disbandment of the Iraqi Army, was there any thought or attempt to overrule him, particularly from the White House? The president recently has been quoted as saying it was his understanding that the Iraqi Army was to be maintained. Given the consequences of his action, it is amazing it went unchallenged.

Thomas E. Ricks: Thanks for reading it!

I am of two minds about Ambassador Bremer. Yes, on the one hand he did seem detached. Yet I also think he was put in the extraordinarily difficult situation of trying to implement a hugely ambitious plan (turn Iraq into a democracy that would become a beacon of change for the Middle East and so "drain the swamp" of terrorism).

But he wasn't put in charge of the whole effort--the U.S. military, the major form of U.S. strength in the country--had a different chain of command. What's more, when Bremer tried to implement the kind of revolutionary change the Bush Administration seemed to want, such as dissolving the Iraqi military and banning senior members of the Baathist Party from public life, he found the U.S. military very resistant. The military's attitude was we don't do revolutionary operations, we do stability. But remember that the American mission in Iraq as defined by the White House wasn't stability, it was radical change. (On the other hand, from the military point of view, transforming Iraq was a far larger mission than the resources being devoted to the job.)

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Austin, Texas: "Fiasco" -- fantastic book! Thanks for your time and great reporting. Question: Other than Northern Iraq, what areas in Iraq validate the model that as the coalition forces stand down, peace and prosperity break out? From my perspective, the results from the Brits withdrawing -- and of our withdrawal from Diyala in 2005 -- were sectarian and civil war between the militias breaking out. Our press is reporting lower causalities -- both in the American military and the civilian population -- and the crippling of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Is the next step withdrawal and greater civil war?

washingtonpost.com: Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled (Post, Oct. 15)

Thomas E. Ricks: Never make predictions, especially about Iraq. I don't know what the next step is.

Casualties do indeed seem to be lower. We just had the first Ramadan in years in which violence was lower than the previous year's Ramadan. That is good news. But there is lots to worry about. The lack of political reconciliation makes it seem like Iraq is adrift, and probably drifting toward some sort of loose breakup. Indeed, you cite Northern Iraq, but even there there are serious worries. Kirkuk seems to be on a low boil, and now the Turks and Kurdish elements are mixing it up on the Turkish-Iraqi border.

Thanks for the comment on "Fiasco."

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Washington: Tom -- could you please decode this effort by Iraq to prevent the Kurds from fighting with the Turks? Isn't this opening another front in the civil war, as it amounts to the government's Shiites fighting with its own Iraqi Kurds. Does this mean Iraq is on the side of American allies rather than its own people? What am I not understanding?

Thomas E. Ricks: No, I think you are understanding this all too well!

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Boston: This is "Islamo-Fascism Awareness Week" and The Washington Post has yet to really take up the cause. Are you really so insensitive to the mortal danger this country is in? These guys are far worse than Hitler in '38 -- after all, while Germany was the world's largest military power, it was only the second largest economy. The Soviet Union only had thousands of nuclear warheads pointed at U.S. cities, plus thousands of tanks and millions of soldiers aimed right at the Fulda Gap. As anyone can see the threat we face today is exceptionally higher.

These Islamo-fascists are cunning and would like nothing more than world domination. They are very well organized too ... so competent that in the nearly 30 years they have been on Jihad, they have one very symbolic strike against us and thousands of deadly but strategically insignificant attacks that have destroyed the psyche of an American president, vice president and thousands of walking-wounded right-wingers. The Washington Post must step up to the challenge and call the Islamo-fascist attack on America exactly what it is: the gravest danger this country ever has faced!

Thomas E. Ricks: I am not sure whether you are joking or not.

My own personal feeling is that this country probably overreacted to Sept. 11. Yes, it was a horrible attack. And I think invading Afghanistan was exactly the right response, done pretty much the right way, at least until we let Osama bin Laden escape at Tora Bora. But since then ... ai yi yi. The other day I heard retired Marine Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, who was director of the Joint Staff before the invasion of Iraq, say that most of the generals he knew thought invading Iraq was the wrong move. I remember many officers saying to me that they thought an Iraq war would be a distraction from the response to al Qaeda.

Also, many of the steps we have taken have hurt America's standing in the world. I never thought I would live in a country where our government quibbled about defining torture. As one colonel who was a prisoner of war in the 1991 Gulf War recently commented in an e-mail, when he was being beaten, he bolstered his spirit by telling himself, 'I'm from the good guys, we don't do this.'

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Fort Bragg, N.C.: It appears the price of war, like the price of gas, is going up slightly, in light of the president's new funding request. Is there any realistic expectation on the part of the military rank-and-file that there will be a significant peace effort in Iraq, and that we won't continue to have a sizeable portion of the military in Iraq (5 percent to 10 percent of our Army and Marines, as well as a sizeable portion in the immediate area or directly supporting Iraq) in, say, five years, still making sure there's no civil war (or that the civil war doesn't expand further)?

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, you're at Fort Bragg, so I bet you have a better sense of what the rank-and-file are thinking today than I do. What do you think?

My sense is that yes, we will have about that portion of our military in Iraq in five years. The wild card is what happens elsewhere. If Pakistan founders then we almost certainly will have to put more troops in Afghanistan. And if Pakistan somehow comes into the hands of Islamic extremists . . . well then, Iraq will look easy by comparison.

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Freising, Germany: It's funny that bin Laden's newest message tells Muslim al-Qaeda members to avoid extremism (ta'assub in Arabic). I've read about growing disarray among Iraq's Sunni insurgents, but I'd always thought that the Shiites were experiencing more infighting and intertribal conflicts than their Sunni counterparts. And, from your Inbox, if elephants equal colonels, and rule the jungle, what are generals?

washingtonpost.com: Tom Ricks's Inbox (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 21)

Thomas E. Ricks: I agree with you on the state of Sunnis vs. Shias. But remember that one reason for more factionalization among Shias is that they broadly think they have won control of (most of) Iraq. So they are fighting among themselves over who gets to run the country. The Sunnis, by contrast, tend to be pushed together by their minority status.

As for the Inbox, I don't know what sort of animals generals would be. (I didn't write the PowerPoint, I just passed it along.) Any suggestions? I do remember a few years ago a guy gave a speech at the Naval War College that said that admirals were golden retrievers, Marine generals were terriers and bulldogs, and Army generals were Labador retrievers. (Please note: I didn't say this!)

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Free Union, Va.: Fareed Zakaria yesterday described how the rhetoric about Iran has become unhinged from reality. Seems to me that the administration has an outcome in mind and are groping for reasons to use the military. Sound familiar?

washingtonpost.com: Stalin, Mao And Ahmadinejad? (Newsweek, Oct. 29 issue)

Thomas E. Ricks: Fareed Zakaria is a very smart guy.

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Re: Islamo-Fascism Awareness Week: The overwhelming view from this Army office is "we should have finished off Afghanistan first."

Thomas E. Ricks: Interesting comment. Can you share with us which Army office you are in?

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Logan, Utah: Hi. I haven't read your book, but it definitely is on the top of my list. Perhaps you answered this question in it, but here goes: With regard to disbanding the Iraqi army, I well remember the numerous times that Rumsfeld said they simply disappeared on their own; was he being disingenuous/lying?

Thomas E. Ricks: Hey, Logan! Are you the same one who wrote in during my last chat? If so, have you gotten the Utah Dept of Transportation to fix the sign up at Ricks Spring, at the top of the canyon? I actually was in Utah last weekend, speaking at the Sundance Resort. What a beautiful area! It snowed on Saturday, and we made a big fire.

Anyway, on the Iraqi army. We dropped leaflets for months before the war telling them not to fight to fight us, and that we would take care of them. Even when officials inside the Green Zone were saying that the Iraqi army had disappeared, officers were lined up outside the Green Zone for their pension payments, and Col. Paul Hughes had compiled a list of thousands of officers who were available. Some American officials have said that the Iraqi bases were destroyed, but we got those bases running fairly quickly for American troops and could have done the same for Iraqi troops.

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New York: Tom, this might be a minefield question, but what do you think will happen with our Iraq policy if a Democrat becomes president (seeing as how practically all the Republicans seem to be supporting Bush's strategy). How might our mission change, and would it be gradual or immediate? Thanks.

Thomas E. Ricks: I did an article on this a few weeks ago.

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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Any real possibility that Iran will join Turkey and together completely wipe out the PKK? After all, the enemy of my enemy. ... If so, do we join the coalition? Fight it? Have NATO allies ever fired on one another? Either way, do we risk alienating our allies, the Kurds, for not protecting the PKK? By raising this question in a public forum, have I joined Dick Cheney's Axis of Evil? Should I care? Thanks much.

Thomas E. Ricks: A bunch of good questions.

As for NATO allies: Greek and Turkey have gotten pretty frisky with each other at various times.

I am not sure that alienating the Kurds is a huge risk. I mean, where are they gonna go?

I'd be surprised if Iran joined in, but then the Middle East is a surprising place.

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Seattle: How much of Turkey's eastern lands are part of "Greater Kurdistan"? I'm asking basically if we're talking about a few dozen miles in, a few hundred miles into Turkey, or say, the eastern third of the territory.

washingtonpost.com: Map showing Kurdish-inhabited area (Wikipedia)

Thomas E. Ricks: Here's a handy map. It is pretty big. But it is also very mountainous. I've traveled by train and bus across the Lake Van area a couple of times, and also spent time in a U.S. Air Force refueler circling over the entire area as U.S. fighters came out of Iraqi airspace to tank up.

By the way, speaking of books, which seems to be today's theme, "Xenophon's Anabasis" (aka "The Ten Thousand") gives a very good account of Greek forces fighting their way through this area on their retreat from the Baghdad area to the Black Sea.

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Atlanta: What is your take on Ricardo Sanchez's recent criticism of those higher up? It seems the furor of his remarks has been short-lived, but the question remains of whether he was pawn or a key player. Is everyone now looking for a better place in history? "Fiasco," fabuloso!

washingtonpost.com: Ex-Commander In Iraq Faults War Strategy (Post, Oct. 13)

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, there is no question he was a key player--the was the top U.S. military commander in Iraq from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2004. That's the period when the insurgency erupted. It's when American commanders first failed to recognize it. And then, when they did see it, they generally employed counterproductive tactics that enflamed the insurgency and turned Iraqi public opinion against the American presence. These tactics also stuffed Abu Ghraib and other detention facilities, swamping poorly trained troops running those prisons. And that led to the Abu Ghraib detainee abuse scandal.

Of course, back then, General Sanchez was talking about all the good news that the media wasn't covering.

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Chicago: Tom, thanks for doing these chats. I suppose Gen. Lute, the War Czar, has barely had time to stick labels on all his file folders, but how's the job going for him? Is he meeting with success? What the heck is he doing, anyway?

Thomas E. Ricks: I think he simply is trying to coordinate the U.S. government response to Iraq.

But your question does make me wonder why we haven't followed the dictum of David Galula, the great theorist of counterinsurgency. We still have a divided command structure in Iraq, with General Petraeus overseeing the military and Ambassador Ryan Crocker overseeing the civilians. But Galula, in his terrific little book, says that your national effort must have one person in charge, and that that person almost always should be a civilian, because ultimately the decisions he or she makes are political.

Oh well. Maybe the next president will fix that.

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Anonymous: Quoting David Kilcullen on what actions the current or next president should take in Iraq is akin to asking your real estate agent if now is a good time to buy. Bush-Petraeus-Kilcullen are Siamese triplets relating to the recent "surge tactic" in Iraq. Kilcullen pre-dated Bush and Petraeus in calling for the surge.

Thomas E. Ricks: David Kilcullen is a smart guy and he can defend himself.

But your question makes me uneasy. I think that all too often, instead of addressing the policy points people make, we simply attack them personally, seeking to undermine their credibility and so dismiss whatever they say. I am seeing this on the right and left. I wish we all would knock it off. Iraq is too difficult a problem for us simply to trash each other, rather than discuss it.

And that's my Rodney King moment for today.

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Menomonie, Wis.: Good morning, sir. It is a pleasure to chat with the author of "Fiasco," an excellent book. My question is, when the president asks for more funding for the war, why don't the Democrats in Congress mention -- whenever they are confronted with statements that if funding is cut, they will leave troops in harm's way-- that most of the funding actually does not go the troops in the field but rather to private contractors such as Blackwater and Halliburton?

Why don't the Democrats mention the billion-dollar embassy in the middle of an impoverished neighborhood in Iraq, with its own water and electricity and even a large swimming pool (!) -- all of which ordinary Iraqis do without? Did we even pay the Iraqis for that park land we built the embassy on? (I'm sorry, that's three questions.) Thank you.

washingtonpost.com: Bush Asks Congress For $46 Billion More In War Funding (Post, Oct. 23)

Thomas E. Ricks: Good questions. I think congressional Democrats are feeling a bit Iraq shy at the moment. The Petraeus-Crocker hearings early last month really killed the buzz.

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Princeton, N.J.: Furthermore, I wouldn't count on the Kurds agreeing with that map. It places Kirkuk on the edge, but the Kurds want the whole province. I also have heard a Kurdish official say that Mosul is a Kurdish city.

Thomas E. Ricks: Yep.

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San Francisco: American fatalities in Iraq are way down the past two months -- September was the lowest total (65) since August 2006 and the fatality rate this month (fewer than one per day) is the lowest since March 2006 -- but the administration isn't claiming victory. What's going on?

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, they've been burned in the past.

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Rockville, Md.: Hello Mr. Ricks. In the last chat, you had mentioned that there were Nepalis (presumably Gurkhas) providing security in Iraq. I understand that there are some British Gurkha regiments there too. My adopted son is Nepali (I like to think he has some of the traditional Gurkha traits) so I'd appreciate any comments you have on how they're doing over there. Thank you.

Thomas E. Ricks: I like the Gurkhas, partly because I've traveled around Nepal and loved it, and also because they are friendly guys. I didn't see any last time I was in Iraq, but on the trip before, I'd stop and chat with them at checkpoints. They always seemed pleased when I said I'd been to their beautiful country. I've never come across British Gurkha regiments there, but I haven't visited the British contingent down in Basra. Are there still such regiments?

By the way, one of my favorite military memoirs is "Bugles and a Tiger," by John Masters. In his youth he was an officer with a Gurkha unit. He loved it, and them. Great book.

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London: Do you envisage that there can be a major uprising against the occupation? Some major revolt in Basra, Karbala and Najaf, and of course in Baghdad? And how could the U.S. respond?

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, sure. We saw something similar in the spring of 2004. I was there and it was pretty rough.

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Logan, Utah: Yep, I'm that same Logan person. Actually I live in Salt Lake City, but my parents are in Logan and I think it's a great place to claim. Haven't been up the canyon to check on your sign. The only political suck I have (which is zero) is my dad taught Mike Leavitt piano and his wife is a sorority sister. Maybe he'll agree to pick up the phone. And that was quite a snowstorm! I was stuck in the mountains at a cabin myself. Sorry I didn't know you were coming here to speak. Hope to catch you next time.

Thomas E. Ricks: At the same time, Park City struck me as the easternmost suburb of LA!

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Peaks Island, Maine: What do you believe would be the likely Iranian response to U.S. attacks upon its nuclear infrastructure? Do you believe the president and vice-president are in general agreement with your beliefs on the matter?

Thomas E. Ricks: I don't know, but I worry that every time we lean on Iran, they will step up the violence against American troops in Iraq. It would be easier to pressure Iran if we weren't in Iraq.

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Thomas E. Ricks: Lots of Kurd-related questions and comments. I am just going to publish them.

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Washington: Does the U.S. government classify the PKK as a terrorist organization? If yes, isn't Turkey allowed the same leeway to pursue across national borders terrorists that threaten it as Israel?

Thomas E. Ricks: One

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Ottawa, Canada: Is there any real hope of the Iraqi government being able to stop the Kurds from attacking the Turks? Does the Iraqi government's authority extend to the Kurdish area?

Thomas E. Ricks: two

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Princeton, N.J.: Could you explain to me how the Bush administration can have the chutzpah to tell the Turks not to invade a "country," Kurdistan, that is supporting an acknowledged terrorist group that has killed many Turks, when we massively invaded a country because we thought (incorrectly) that that country might engage in terrorist activities at some time in the future?

Thomas E. Ricks: three

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Alexandria, Va: Under the Bush doctrine, doesn't every state have the right to defend itself against terrorist attacks, even pre-emptively? So why is George Bush concerned about Turkey wanting to protect itself against terrorist attacks and invade Iraq? Also, the Turkish parliament give the leader of Turkey the authorization to invade Iraq. George Bush claimed he got the same authorization from Congress. So what is the issue?

Thomas E. Ricks: four

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Seattle: Anything of interest or value to Turkey in that region, a la natural resources, strategic interests, etc.? If it is as mountainous as the photos and the relief maps make it look, it can't have too many people or too many large cities...

Thomas E. Ricks: To the American eye, it may not look that valuable. But keep in mind that in the desert, water is king. Both the Tigris and Euphrates originate up there. One of the nightmares for Iraq is that Turkey just dams up the rivers and keeps the water for itself. Indeed, I remember being at a U.S. military "tabletop" war game where that was the scenario that provoked an invasion by Iraq to get the dams opened.

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But your question makes me uneasy. I think that all too often, instead of addressing the policy points people make, we simply attack them personally, seeking to undermine their credibility and so dismiss whatever they say.: I am not attacking Kilcullen, who is obviously a very bright man. As he states, Petraeus called him and said "help us to institute your surge tactic that you've been talking about." Kilcullen did. The surge tactic has failed in it's intent -- to create political reconciliation among the tribes. The argument can be made that the surge, through it's "bottom-up" philosophy, has hindered reconciliation. Kilcullen stands by his failing policy, as do Bush and Petraeus. I'm not hating the player, I'm hating the game.

Thomas E. Ricks: A thoughtful response.

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Anonymous: I read transcripts of a BBC interview with Jay Garner. To paraphrase, Garner freaked out when he heard of Bremer's total de-Baathification plan. Garner talked to Gen. Franks, who also freaked out and wondered where we were going to get the troops needed for the peacekeeping mission that was planned to be handled by the Iraq army after a shallow de-Baathification of the top 10 percent to 20 percent of the leadership (cut off the head and the body will die).

Garner confronted Bremer about his de-Baathification plan and Garner states Bremer pointed at his briefcase and said he was just following orders. After the de-Baathification was done, tens of thousands of private contractors were hired to partially fill in the void. Am I too cynical to hinge de-Baathification with the desire to make billions by using private contractors?

Thomas E. Ricks: I think that is too cynical. By the way, I cover this pretty well on pp. 158-59 of 'Fiasco.' It was actually Garner and the CIA station chief who freaked, and said that the de-Baathification order, as drafted, was a disaster.

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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Mr. Ricks, I enjoyed your book very much, as did many of my friends here in Saudi Arabia. I paid close attention to your account of the battles of Fallujah (brought on by the killing of four Blackwater contractors). From the perspective of the folks here, there was a good deal of sympathy for the plight of the people in Fallujah during the battles -- as well as outrage at the destruction of a clinic by U.S. forces and the interdiction of a Red Crescent relief caravan.

I recently spoke to an Iraqi journalist who reported from within Fallujah during the second battle who insisted that there were a number of civilian casualties, and who accused the U.S. of "war crimes." What is your perspective on the different -- sometimes radically -- perspectives on these events? How does (or should) the U,S, balance military advantage with the risk of alienating the population we are trying to enlist on our behalf. Thanks for your continued good work.

Thomas E. Ricks: Yeah, I saw the same sympathy among Iraqis when I was in Iraq during First Fallujah, in the spring of 2004. But I do think that was partly from the way the Arab media presented the fight.

I also think that Second Fallujah, in November 2004, was necessary to stop the car bombs from being made there and driven into Baghdad.

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Washington: Mr. Ricks: I am reading the final section of the Halberstam book about the Korean war. I think that it should be required reading at West Point and in the White House. Any comments?

Thomas E. Ricks: I've read it. I liked Halberstam, but his isn't my favorite book on the Korean War. I'd recommend Fehrenbach's "This Kind of War," Martin Russ's "The Last Parallel," and Bernstein's book (can't remember the title), as well as a good biography of Gen.MacArthur -- I loved William Manchester's.

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Princeton, N.J.: So what about Afghanistan? Will it become a narco state? A fundamentalist Islamic state? Kabul, and a bunch of states ruled by warlords? A failed state (sheer chaos)? Or a Democracy with full civil liberties (Switzerland in the Hindu Kush)?

Thomas E. Ricks: Dunno. I have a lot of admiration for President Karzai. (And I love his family's restaurant in Baltimore, too.)

I think the big worry for Afghanistan now isn't as much the Taliban as it is what happens in Pakistan. That's a biggie.

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Washington: There was another raid in Sadr City this week by American troops. As yet, the Shiite militias seem to be maintaining their cease-fire against the Americans. How long do you think this can last, if we keep performing raids on the Mahdi Army and other militias? Do you think Sadr's strategy of laying low for the moment is going to pay off for him in future years?

Thomas E. Ricks: Yeah, I suspect that Sadr knows that in the long run, things are flowing his way. His guys aren't entirely quiet--there are a disproportionate number of casualties being inflicted on U.S. forces based in the southeast part of Baghdad.

But I think that for the main, he is holding back from confrontation with the U.S. in Baghdad and instead fighting other Shiite factions in the central and southern parts of Iraq.

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Thomas E. Ricks: Thanks for all your questions. I'm off to lunch with a smart retired Army colonel.

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