Real Wheels

Warren Brown
Washington Post columnist
Friday, November 2, 2007 11:00 AM

Warren Brown has covered the car industry for The Washington Post since 1982.

Brown test drives all types of cars, from luxury sedans to the newest minivans and hybrids. His On Wheels auto reviews are lively, detailed accounts of cars' good and bad qualities.

Brown's Car Culture column addresses the social, political and economic trends of the industry.

Brown comes online Fridays at 11 a.m. ET to answer your questions on every aspect of the automotive industry -- from buying your dream car to the future of the internal combustion engine.

The transcript follows below.

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Bethesda, Md.:

I love your chats and would welcome your insight into our conundrum.

We are recent empty-nesters and would like to go from 2 cars down to 1 but unfortunately do not feel that either of our 2 existing cars (a 2003 Mini and a 2002 Volvo X70) are exactly what we need for an only car (basically one's too big and one's too small to serve in that role).

In looking for a single car to replace these two, we would like to be as green as possible and are considering the VW Jetta TDI that we understand will be available in the states in Spring 2008. My recollection is that in the past you have heralded the new diesel engines as, in many ways a more environmentally sound alternative to the hybrids (great mileage, high durability, no battery disposal issues).

The questions to you are: (1) What is the early word on the new TDIs? (2) Is it reasonable to look at this car as a good "green" option?

In part, we are puzzled because we have gone to 2 VW dealers and the salesmen were surprised by our interest in the car. It seems to us that it would be something of a hot new car...

THANKS!!

Warren Brown: Good morning, Bethesda:

I expect the VW Jetta TDI to go on sale in 2008, probably as a 2009 model. VW says it will be a "50-state" diesel, meaning that it will meet all federal and California-uber-alles clean air standards related to diesels. That also means it will meet CIS (California Imitative States) clean-air standards.

You might have been hearing terms such as BlueTec (Mercedes-Benz), AddBlue (Audi), and Blue Motion (VW). They all mean the same thing, which is that all of those new diesels come with an exhaust stream technology that employs urea to help break down nitrogen oxides.

The new diesels produce very few particulate emissions. They yield 35 percent better fuel economy than traditional gasoline internal combustion engines. And they easily match the real-world mileage of current gas-electrics. They don't come with the seldom-discussed environmental baggage of end-life battery disposal associated with gas-electrics. Nor is there the pending problem of resale obsolescence thanks to the rapid emergence of new battery technologies that are far superior to the nickel metal-hydride batteries in current gas-electrics.

And I'm willing to bet that the "well-to-wheel-to-grave" energy costs of the new diesels are discernibly lower than those of the gas-electrics, which makes them very green in my book.

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Baltimore, Md.: Warren: What's your take on the big announcement from Chrysler?

Warren Brown: Hello, Baltimore:

I assume that you are referring to Chrysler's announcement that it will drop four models--the Dodge Magnum, Chrysler PTCruiser convertible,Chrysler Pacifica crossover utility vehicle, and the Chrysler Crossfire convertible.

Chrysler also will drop shifts at assembly plants in Belvedere, Ill.; Detroit (the relatively new North Jefferson facility, Lee A. Iacocca's tangible symbol of commitment to Detroit), Toledo North in Ohio; Brampton, Ontario; Sterling Heights, Mich.; and the Mack Avenue Engine Plant II in Detroit.

An estimated 10,000 Chrysler jobs will disappear along with those product eliminations and shift cutbacks.

While I lament the loss of jobs and the personal difficulties those losses will cause, I must acknowledge that all of those cuts are necessary and long overdue. My stance won't please the United Auto Workers union and neither will it be supported by the supposedly more militant Canadian Auto Workers union.

Too bad.

Here's why.

What Chrysler's unions and management need to understand--and Chrysler's current owner, Cerberus Capital Management LLP certainly understands--is that CONSUMERS DETERMINE JOB SECURITY AND CORPORATE SUCCESS.

If consumers aren't buying the Chrysler Pacifica in large enough numbers to sustain production, production ends. Period.

If production ends, production shifts end and plants close.

The same thing happens if consumers aren't buying the very consumptive Dodge Magnum in large numbers, which they weren't; and if they aren't buying Chrysler Crossfire convertibles in large numbers, which they weren't; and if they aren't buying PT Cruiser convertibles in large numbers, which they most certainly weren't.

Chrysler now has to come up with vehicles that consumers want. The new Chrysler Journey looks promising. More new vehicles from Chrysler will come forth.

It's not rocket science.

Businesses exist because consumers support them. If consumers don't support them, they don't exist. If they don't exist, they can't provide jobs. And if there are no jobs, there is nothing for the UAW or the CAW to protect.

Business is a collaborative enterprise in which labor and management should share one goal--pleasing the customer. If they do that successfully, both will have job security--until they stop doing it.

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Boston, Mass.: Hi, Warren.

As Chrysler has cut their product lines and laid off a number of workers, do you think they're going to focus on a specific market segment (minivans to SUVs to light trucks) or do you think they'll still offer all ranges of products. Or do you have a different take on what they'll become.

Warren Brown: Hello, Boston:

Chrysler has never been a boutique automaker, say, such as Porsche. And now even Porsche has to diversify its offerings--which it is doing by gaining contol over Volkswagen--to stay in business. That means Chrysler must have diversified offerings, too.

Example:

Chrysler desperately needs small cars--a desperation that will become all the more evident with the January introduction of the Mercedes-benz-sponsored Smart ForTwo, BMW's 1-Series, and with GM and Ford standing ready to pull in excellent micro-cars from their European operations. And, of course, nearly all of the Japanese companies doing business in the United States are on top of their small-car/micro-car game.

Families remain families. Vehicles such as the new Chrysler Journey should serve them well. And kudos to the people at Chrysler who refused to listen to idiots like me, and who stuck with the compabny's minivan strategy. The new Chrysler minivans look great!

Chrsler will need large premium sedans. Why? It does not matter if crude oil is selling at $96 a barrel, not everybody wants to drive a micro-car.

And Chrysler will need Jeeps. But the Jeep line will have to be trimmed. I say dump the Commander and the Patriot.

And, of course, Chrysler will need trucks. Anyone doubting that should look at the truckload of money Toyota is pouring into its not-terribly-green Tundra.

It all amounts to balance. Chrysler's product folio was messy beacause it was way, way out of balance--too many trucks, not enough cars.

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Tenleytown, D.C.: Hi, Warren. I've been looking at small to mid-sized SUV/crossovers and have really fallen for the Lexus 350. It's a little outside my budget, though, so I'm thinking of waiting a few months and looking for a used 2007. I really don't have any experience with buying a used car, and am hesitant to just buy one off of anybody. Part of me also says just go and buy a CRV EX-L.

So before I make a final decision, I would love to hear your advice. Specifically, what can you tell me about the Lexus certified program. It seems as though the cars are a little more expensive than non-certified Lexus. Is it worth the money? Or, should I just keep my eye on the Carmax inventory. Also with regard to Carmax, is it really no-haggle, as they claim? Thanks.

Warren Brown: Hello, Tenleytown:

The Lexus RX 350 is so yesterday. And at a starting figure of $37,400, it is so ridiculously overpriced, considering the competition. I'd take a Mazda CX7 over that one anyday. Ditto the Nissan Rogue. Ditto the Honda CR-V, Saturn VUE, and Hyundai Veracruz.

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Dupont Circle: I need a samll commuter car and I only want to spend around 15,000. Is there anything worth the money in that price range? Between a Hyundai accent and a Mazda 3, I'm leaning towards the Mazda. Are there any domestic models I should consider?

Warren Brown: Hello, Dupont Circle.

Yes.

And the only people who would laugh at my answer are those who haven't spent any real time with the domestic-sponsored cars I'l mention:

. The new Chevrolet Aveo, excellently crafted, good milage, somewhat soft suspension--but we are talking about a basic city commuter, aren't we.

. Chevrolet Cobalt--again, excellently crafted, more of a pocket rocket than the Aveo, slightly largely, but still fuel efficient and affordably priced.

. The Ford Focus--all-around excellence and, hey, guess what? It is built on the same platform as the Mazda3. Ford has a controlling interest in Mazda. What can I say? In a global economy, domesticity does not mean what it once meant.

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Washington, D.C.: Are any American automakers planning to offer the high mileage diesels and if not why not?

Warren Brown: Yes.

Both GM and Ford will offer high mileage diesels, probably as 2009 models. They probably will start with trucks. But consider that 40 to 50 percent of the new models GM and Ford sell in Europe--and they sell a lot--are advanced diesels.

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Fairfax, Va.: Thank you so much for your chats. Very insightful.

What's the word on the new Saturn Vue Green Line? I've test driven the four-cylinder Vue and I love it, but I'd like to wait for the hybrid version to come out. Problem is, no one at Saturn can give me a straight answer as to when they will be available.

Warren Brown: Hunh?

Fairfax, I'm confused.

The Saturn Vue Green Line has been out for a year. Base price $22,370. The 2008 version, also four-cylinder, but improved, starts at about $24,700. Might I suggest you check another Saturn dealer?

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Centreville, Va.: Warren, my wife and I just returned from two weeks in Europe, including Germany and Austria, where we saw all sorts of fun-looking, practical, zippy little cars that neither of us have ever seen on an American highway. Are any of the companies that already do business in America considering trying out their European lines in the states? If so, what can we look forward to seeing?

Warren Brown: Hello, Centerville:

The Smart ForTwo, starting in January 2008 as a 2008 model which, finally, makes perfect sense as far as model-year dating goes. It will be offered in base (the Pure), popularly equipped (the Passion), and droptop sporty (the Cabriolet). Staring price is $11,590 for the Pure. Top price is around $17,00 for spiffed-out versions of the Passion and the Cabriolet. Engine is 1-literm three-cylinder, 70-hp gasoline with a top speed of 90 mph. In Europe, there are diesel versions; but they are regarded as too expensive to bring here. (Cheap-gas-forever Americans don't understand that small does not always mean it has to be cheap. But if you've bought gas in Europe this week, as I did, you understand why the Europeans are willing to pay more for these little cars. 1.639 Euros PER LITER for regular unleaded in North Italy. Works out to, what? About $6 per gallon U.S.? Gets pricey.)

BMW will bring in its 1-Series. VW is bringing in the diesel Jetta TDI.

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Kansas City, Kansas: Keep up the great work, Warren!

Why do you think that exciting prototypes (like the Dodge Hornet) either take eons to reach production after the initial relase or never make it to the market? It seems that a lot of exciting designs by American automakers never reach the public, whereas their Japanese/Korean/European counterparts understand that good/exciting design resonates with consumers. Is it because the beancounters control the industry rather than the folks who design them? Just curious...

Warren Brown: Hello, Kansa City:

Here we again are running into that nasty relationship between perception in reality. Consider this year's Tokyo Auto Show. Lots of far-out designs there from Asian automakers. Not many of them actually will come to market.

Same thing at the Shanghai Auto Show--lots of nifty designs, only a few of which will make showrooms.

Ditto the Frankfurt, Paris, Geneva, and Bologna shows. Same thing happens at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, The Los Angeles Auto Show, which gets underway Nov. 14, and the Chicago and New York shows. It does not happen so much at our Washington Auto Show, which tends to feature market-ready products--but that's changing.

It most certainly will happen in mid-November in Shanghai at the Michelin Challenge Bibendum (advanced propulsion systems and alternative fuel technology), which is where I'll be instead of Los Angeles.

The bottom line is that you have a marketplace of ideas and a marketplace in which those ideas must translate into a profit-making business case. Sometimes those ideas don't make good business sense. Other times they do. Trust me on this. All car companies have bean counters.

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Gas prices: From what I see, the vast majority of folks really don't care what the price of gas is. They would still drive their big SUVs/trucks even if gas was $8 per gallon. They see it as a right to drive and would probably just dip into any savings and/or reduce any amount set asise for their kids college, etc.

Do you agree?

Warren Brown: Nope.

Look at current U.S. sales trends.

Gas prices go up. SUV sales come down.

Look at GM and Ford, both heavy truckers.

But GM started rebuilding its car program long before Ford. The result, GM's North American sales are up slightly even as gas prices rise. Still too truck-heavy Ford and Chrysler are slumping badly.

GM's GLOBAL sales (last week, I mistakenly applied this increase to its European sales) are up 4 percent--and up a whopping 15 percent in Europe where sales of its fuel-efficient, diesel-powered Opel cars have taken off.

I still maintan that Americans are pocket-book environmentalists. With crude prices flirting with $100 a barrel, they eventually will abandon their faith in America's divine right to cheap gas, and will start buying vehicles accordingly.

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RE: Ford Focus: I think you are mistaking the current European Ford Focus with the USDM Focus. EDM Focus is on the same platform as the Mazda3, but USDM is still the same old platform from when it was first introduced (pre-Mazda3).

Warren Brown: Yes, i understand. But they share many of the same components. And the new Focus models will share even more. Point is, the U.S. Focus, as is, is a very decent car.

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DC:"California Uber Alles"? Warren Brown is a Dead Kennedys fan? Say it ain't so!

Warren Brown: Hunh?

No.

"California uber alles" is in tandem with my constant sniping at California's we-know-better-arrogance in environmental and related matters.

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Focus? : The Ford Focus? Really? I rented one when it first came out and it was awful.

Warren Brown: The base Focus was awful when it first came out. And apparently Ford (and GM) have learned something from that kind of experience. Both companies have pulled back from the rental fleets. And to the extent they still put cars in those places, they are now putting better, more impressive samples.

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23112: CarMax really is no-haggle, period. I recently left a part-time sales position there (time with my family was more important, although I enjoyed the job), and came away really impressed with the way that the company works. There is no haggling. There is no MEANS to do it...no one in the sales department even has a mechanism to modify pricing or financing. And that's refreshing.

Warren Brown: Yep.

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Smart for Two: How does it compare, size-wise, to a Jetta? Exactly how small is "really small" any more, to this kid who grew up in a '73 Buick?

Warren Brown:"Small" in this case is a total body lebgth of 10 feet.

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RE: Vue Green Line: Since the "all new" Opel-based Vue was just released, I think it may be a little while before the Green Line version is available. Rumor is late November. Price starts at $24,795.

Warren Brown: Thanks.

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Fairfax: If your premise is true that women like cars that have emotional warmth, how come Ford's sales of the 500-Taurus and comparable Mercury models have been dismal? Those cars have some of the most comfortable, warm interiors around.

Warren Brown: Good question, Fairfax.

But allow me to direct your attention to the New Mercury, which deliberately targets women. The Mercury Mariner, for example, is winning lots of lady buyers.

And the Mini Cooper--cute, cuddly, efficient, fast, fun, reliable.

If it weren't for women, the Mini would be dead.

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Paint problems: Warren -- I'm all for better environmental laws and regulations, but do you know of any changes to the paint used on new cars? My new Honda Fit seems to chip so much more easily then any previous car I've had, including other Hondas. I know the front is low to the ground, but so was my Civic and it didn't have this problem. I'm looking now at paint protection film, but its quite expensive.

Warren Brown: I know of no environmental laws that would lead to that problem--especially since all car companies adhere to the same laws, but not all companies have that problem. I will check with Honda.

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Washington, D.C.: BMW X3 or Lexus 350?

Warren Brown: Neither in my book.

Both if those are your two choices, I'd take the X3.It seems less vulnerable to competitors than the Lexus RX 350, which is getting that my-parents-and-older-siblings-did-that feel.

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Warren Brown: Okay, good folks. Thanks for stopping by today. Please come back next week. I'll try to be less jet-lagged.

Eat lunch, Ria.

And thanks beyond thanks for all of the overtime you put in for On Wheels and Real Wheels this week. In text talk: U da best!!

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