Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Tuesday, Nov. 13 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Baltimore: Hi Shailagh. Is it your impression that GOP pols are more fearful or desirous of a Clinton nomination? Thanks.

Shailagh Murray: Hi Baltimore, and greetings to all you chatters on this damp morning in the District. I had a terrific trip to Iowa last week, lots of action on the campaign trail and a real live ball as far as the outcome.

As for your question...it sort of depends on whether you think Sen. Clinton can eke out a victory with her high negatives, because her core support is so strong, or whether those high negatives make it easier to run against her. A lot of Republicans do think Obama would make a tougher general election foe, or at least that's what they tell me.

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Gettysburg, Pa.: Thank you for answering questions today. With all that money he raised, is Ron Paul going anywhere in the polls? If Obama or Edwards beats Clinton narrowly in Iowa, could Paul cut off their momentum by siphoning off a lot of independent voters who might otherwise have taken a Dem ballot in New Hampshire?

Shailagh Murray: I don't think Ron Paul has huge growth potential. A charming fellow, but his ideas are a little out of the mainstream -- like when he told CNBC last week that he would legalize foreign currencies. New Hampshire voters aren't that independent.

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Chicago: Thanks for taking my question. There is a lot of talk about how important Iowa's presidential caucus is in the shortened campaign calendar. How many tickets are there out of Iowa for each party? Two, three or more?

Shailagh Murray: Depends on the scenario. On the Republican side, Rudy seems to think he can lose up front in Iowa and New Hampshire, then crush Romney in Florida and then on Feb. 5. That is certainly not the traditional path to the nomination, but it's probably too late for him to change course, so we'll see if it works. On the Democratic side, it seems that if Clinton wins Iowa, then it's tough for either Obama or Edwards to rebound, because everything else comes so quickly. But if Edwards or Obama win, and Clinton holds on in New Hampshire, then you could have a Democratic contest that bounces along into February. Especially if it's Clinton and Obama, because they both have the money for a long slugfest.

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Arlington, Va.: Can you please explain how much influence Biden can put on Musharraf by phone when he says in Iowa that he just talked with the president of Pakistan? Also, during a CNN interview on Sunday, Richard Holbrooke (who supports Hillary) said that he has been speaking with Musharraf; how much impact does he have? Don't these actions by Biden and Holbrooke undermine our own State Department and the White House on the foreign relations issue? Or can you explain to the readers whether a senator on the Foreign Relations Committee and a former U.N. ambassador have the authority to influence leaders on the world stage? Did Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meet with Biden or Holbrooke to ask for their help, or are these guys just taking it upon themselves to muck up the diplomatic role of the State Department?

washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Biden Criticizes Bush on Pakistan (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 8)

Shailagh Murray: You know, I thought that was pretty odd too, which is why I wrote about. That's a lot of cooks in a highly volatile kitchen. And as far as I know, yes, they took it upon themselves.

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San Francisco: Yay, a horse race in Iowa! You must be so excited. Besides the fact that voters milled about during their speeches at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, was there anything worth telling readers about what was said by the non-top-three?

washingtonpost.com: Democrats' Provocative Iowa Dinner Conversation (Post, Nov. 12)

Shailagh Murray: Unfortunately for the second-tier candidates, none of them delivered great speeches. I found that really puzzling -- it was the best free format they could have hoped to find, even better than a debate because the room was full of caucus goers -- and neither Biden, Dodd nor Richardson took advantage of it.

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Los Angeles: Most political polls -- especially the last-minute polls -- do little more than enable pollsters and news organizations that sponsor polls to remain in the fray (e.g., to entice readers/viewers with the latest results). That is, political polls don't predict with any precision who will win close/competitive races, as poll results often are cloaked in the cover language of "the race is narrowing," "too close to call" or "a statistical dead heat" (the error margin cover). Yet news organizations, political parties and individual politicians spent millions on political polling when voter turnout often is the decisive factor (which could be predicted by spending far less than on polls). Why is this? Other than producing dazzling graphics, is it a case of the blind following the blind, or that there is nothing better to do with political contributions and news budgets?

Shailagh Murray: My take on polls is that they are a snapshot, not a compass, and should be taken as such. In fairness, it's the only objective measure we have of where candidates stand at a given time. Look at the polls from New Hampshire in recent days -- is Clinton losing support? Or settling in with a comfortable 10 percent lead? The numbers alone don't tell you.

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Fairfax, Va.: Why aren't the Democratic candidates focusing on responding to the Republican attacks (e.g. the Democrats are defeatocrats who won't defend America) instead of picking each other apart, not on issues but on personality flaws that Republicans will use in their political ads?

Shailagh Murray: That's certainly what Sen. Clinton would like to see happen!

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Hampton Va.: Hillary was evasive in one single debate. Just one debate! Everyone is entitled to a bad night. And as far as planting questions -- I'm sure all politicians stage-manage their "spontaneous" events. She's still the frontrunner, she still has loads of cash, she still has Bill, she still is the unstoppable juggernaut. You journalists look petty flailing around try to take the Great Leader down. She's experienced, she's tough. She's out next president.

Shailagh Murray: We're not trying to take anyone down. Candidates do that remarkably well with no help from us. And yes, you are right to suggest that Clinton remains the frontrunner, despite a rough couple of weeks.

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Who's crazier?: So ... as you say, Ron Paul is "a little out of the mainstream". But is he really any more "outside the mainstream" of American tradition than Rudy Giuliani? How are his views any more extreme or kooky? Now, I am of and among the Liberal Left -- I make no apologies. And I think Ron Paul is bananas in a lot of ways, but ... give him the nukes over Rudy. Please. It's not even close.

Shailagh Murray: Yes, he's a lot more out of the mainstream than Rudy Giuliani. That doesn't mean he's crazy. He's a very nice man, grandfatherly even, and his fundraising this cycle has been truly impressive. But he holds some out-there views that simply limit his appeal.

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Arlington, Va.: Can you please explain how much influence Biden can put on Musharraf by phone: Can you tell me how much influence Bush can put on Musharraf by phone? My answer is about the same as Biden -- not much.

Shailagh Murray: From the Joe Biden fan club...

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Washington: Shailagh: On the one hand, having worked campaigns, you want your questions asked. It is standard to flood radio call-ins with your supporters and to try and get questions into a discussion, debate, town-hall, etc. On the other hand, it seems like the Clinton spin machine is working overtime here. Why not just say: we did it, everyone does it, let's talk about issues.

Instead, it is like they're trying to pretend this is an aberration, they're not being "Bush Bubble"-like at all ... which seems to drive the inevitable comparison. In short, is the Clinton rapid-response, take-no-prisoners attitude helping to keep stories like this alive? Where, in your opinion, should campaigns fight, rather than just ignore and move on?

Shailagh Murray: When your marketing strategy is to appear perfect, the slightest cracks are going to show more. In some respects you could say Clinton gives herself less margin for error, because she makes so few mistakes.

But some stories stay alive longer than others because they reveal a more serious vulnerability. In Iowa, planting questions calls into question your authenticity -- something Clinton struggles to demonstrate on the best of days, because she's just not a gal who wings it. This episode sort of reminds me of the John Kerry windsurfing photo. It's the sort of thing that can linger in the mind.

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Anonymous: Any likely political fallout from Bush vetoing the health and education bill? Bush criticized what he called the tax-and-spend philosophy of the Democrats (although Republicans also voted for the bill), though given the high cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ($20,000 per family of four to date, according to today's news), it is kind of surprising the Dems have not yet come up with a pithy retort to describe Bush's philosophy (spend-without-paying-as-you-go does not have much of a ring to it).

Shailagh Murray: Could both Congress and Bush be doing any worse in the polls? I suppose people aren't paying much attention to train wreck on Capitol Hill these days, but if they were, I would expect a recall movement for everyone in federal office.

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Piggott, Ark/: Our former governor, Mike Huckabee, is gaining ground in Iowa. If he wins in Iowa, does that give him momentum in states where he has not concentrated so much?

Shailagh Murray: Yes, but if he did win, he would have to be prepared for the complicated and expensive battle that would rapidly unfold. He's not even close to ready in that regard, and that's why he's still such a long shot. Although you are right, lots of Republicans really like the guy.

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Newport News, Va.: Planting questions in the audience is a yawner. Every campaign does that. But the unbridled arrogance of the Clinton campaign -- bald-faced lies claiming that it was a one-time slip up -- isn't that just daring some enterprising journalist to make a story out of this? It seems like the one tiny chink in The Unstoppable Hillary Juggernaut is the nagging doubts about her ethics, her sincerity, her "real-ness." And this story goes right to the heart of those issues.

washingtonpost.com: Video: Clinton on Planted Question (washingtonpost.com, Nov. 12)

Shailagh Murray: An observation about questiongate...

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South Orange, N.J.: Thank you for taking my question. Has any progress been made to change and hopefully shorten the 2012 primary schedule?

Shailagh Murray: No, but you're not getting ahead of yourself, either. If there's anything that Democrats and Republicans agree on these days, it's that the primary system is officially broken.

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Alexandria, Va.: Shailagh, I recently saw a report that indicated that Sen. Cochran of Mississippi was considering retiring. Are you aware if there's anything more to this? Thanks.

washingtonpost.com: Cochran undecided on re-election plans (Northeastern Mississippi Daily Journal, Nov. 9)

Shailagh Murray: Full disclosure: Sen. Cochran is one of my very favorite members. And if I had to bet money on it, based on an informed hunch, I would say he will retire.

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Biden's Call to Pakistan: Think Pervez got a word in edgewise?

Shailagh Murray: I'm wondering which Irish poet Biden quoted.

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Washington: The Democratic Party moved up the Nevada caucuses to bring greater diversity to the early nomination process, but then everybody else moved up too. Do you see Nevada having any real influence? We still only hear about Iowa and New Hampshire.

Shailagh Murray: I'm not sure about Nevada's influence. Depends on the turnout of their caucus -- those are much more tricky to pull off than a regular primary, and in previous years turnout has been miniscule. It's also a state where one big endorsement, from the culinary workers on the Las Vegas strip, is considered make or break. This is why a lot of Democrats preferred Arizona as the early Western state -- but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid ain't from Arizona.

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New Hampshire: It's a little hypocritical for Republicans to accuse Biden of undermining U.S. policy by taking with Musharraf. George H.W. Bush negotiated behind Jimmy Carter's back during the Iranian hostage crisis in some very questionable ways.

Shailagh Murray: I don't want to end this chat with negative Biden karma, so I post this comment.

Thanks to all of you for writing, this was fun. See you in a couple of weeks, and in the meantime have a lovely Thanksgiving. Cheers, Shailagh.

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