Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national politics reporter Anne E. Kornblut was online Wednesday, Dec. 19 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Anne E. Kornblut: Hi from Iowa! I'm at an event, waiting for Sen. Clinton to arrive, and ready to get started. So send in your questions!

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Washington: Maybe it's where I live, but I feel like political coverage has become so abstract and meta that it's no longer about how candidates are doing -- it's how they are doing in relation to expectations, or even how they are able to manage the expectations about how they are supposed to be doing. It wasn't that long ago that at least one person in Clinton's campaign was writing memos considering dropping out of Iowa completely. Now it seems like her campaign is in real trouble because she isn't likely to win Iowa. What happened?

Anne E. Kornblut: Fabulous question (and as someone who lives in Washington but sees a lot of the country on the campaign trail, I agree with your diagnosis). With particular regard to Iowa, the Clinton campaign always did say it would be a hard state for her to win, but that message was lost for many months amid her very wide national lead and their strategy of portraying her as "inevitable." Everyone stopped noticing that Iowa was critical as the launching pad for the rest of the race, and that she wasn't doing so great here. That all has turned around now, and that is why you see her working so hard in Iowa; don't be surprised if she comes in second place and tries to portray it as a "comeback."

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West Coast: We'll be in New Hampshire all next week; what are the chances of running into any candidates? Or do they take next week off?

Anne E. Kornblut: Fun for you! And get ready -- you will, I bet, be surprised by the level of political activity you will see in New Hampshire. While the bulk of it on the Democratic side will be happening in Iowa (Clinton and Obama will definitely spend Dec. 26 to Jan. 3 in Iowa), there should be some Republicans in the Granite State; just check the local papers and our site; we should have it up. And get ready for the level of television ads...

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Washington: Anne, what is the most unique event you have covered so far in Iowa?

Anne E. Kornblut: Definitely a tie between seeing Oprah there, in front of thousands upon thousands of Iowans, and seeing Magic Johnson in the grocery store yesterday. But truth be told, there's something eye-popping every week. I'll forever cherish the week I spent at the Iowa state fair earlier this year -- with multiple visits to the "butter cow" with each candidate.

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Columbia, Md.: I realize that all candidates are fair game, but I do think that there is much more pressure being put on Clinton. Is this because she is the wife of an former president or because she is a women? I seemed to remember that there seemed to be more pressure on Ferraro during that campaign.

Anne E. Kornblut: I actually don't think so. She herself has said that the pressure comes from her being the run-away front-runner at the national level; if she were any of the (male) others, I believe she would receive the same scrutiny. And she has done a pretty decent job of neutralizing the arenas where women typically get closer criticism (wardrobe, etc.). That said, we're still only in a Democratic primary; there would be plenty of room for that to change in a general election, if she were the nominee. We'll find out...

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Are you psychic, Anne?: You seem to have the political reporting thing down pat. Look at what you said way back in October: "I have to say we in the media are spoiling for a fight. Usually we are biased in favor of a good tussle at about this point. ... I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere between now and Jan. 3, now that we know that's when the Iowa caucuses are going to be, to see some kind of reverse, some kind of Obama surge or an Edwards surge. Something that is going to knock Hillary down a few pegs. Whether it's a media creation, or something that actually happens on the ground. I would be shocked if there were nothing like that."

Is Obama's recent "surge" somehow "created" by the media? Yes, I know you Fourth-Estate guys pride yourselves on choosing our leaders for us unserious folks in the Peanut Gallery ... but isn't that sort of ... well, anti-democratic?

Anne E. Kornblut: I wish we were that powerful! Bottom line is, we're not. I can assure you -- what is happening on the ground in Iowa, where I've spent a lot of time the last few months, is happening at the level of average voters here, who pay extraordinary attention and make up their own minds (albeit with the help of paid advertising). All I meant then -- and still believe -- is that Democratic voters do not like easy coronations and never would have just decided Clinton is the nominee without casting a single ballot. Most races tighten at the end, as this one is. And pretty soon, we'll know how it turns out.

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Campaign economics: Don't the same "campaign strategists" or "media strategists" on campaigns also take a cut of whatever the campaign spends on TV ads through their consulting companies? Given all the ads I have been forced to click through (even sitting in Massachusetts), how much money do these people make off a campaign?

Anne E. Kornblut: Yes. They make a lot of money. We reporters sometimes joke that we should come back in our next lives as media consultants. President Bush made a deal with his folks that they would get a flat fee, rather than a percentage, but that is not the norm -- usually it's 10 percent to 15 percent. So yes, they have an incentive to run ads, to do a lot of polling, etc. It's one underexamined part of the system in my view, though entire books have been written on the matter.

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San Francisco: Anne, do you know if cell phones or texting are allowed in the precinct caucuses? Couldn't this make a big difference for candidates' supporters who don't make the 15 percent threshold? They'll need direction from their campaign what to do, right? Or are all the decisions local?

Anne E. Kornblut: Drat, I knew the answer to this four years ago, and now have forgotten. Thank you for reminding me to get a handle on that. It's a terrific point.

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Washington: It just feels like during the past three or four days Clinton has re-emerged. It seems like the Des Moines Resister endorsement put wind in her sails and that she has been dominating the news cycles. Any credence to this "feeling"?

Anne E. Kornblut: She definitely has started to win a few news cycles, which she had not done for many weeks, so that is great news for her. What is not yet clear is how that will translate as people start to turn their attention to the holidays. We're only 11 days out now, and Obama and Edwards are still doing quite well. Stay tuned...

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Washington: You have to go to Marshalltown and get a Maid-Rite hamburger. You can get them in Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Des Moines, but they originated in Marshalltown, according to the Food Network. And for a really interesting day, you can visit the John Deere plant in Waterloo, where Chuck Grassley worked while he was in undergrad at the University of Northern Iowa.

washingtonpost.com: At the Diners (washingtonpost.com)

Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for the travel tips! I love a good Maid-Rite burger (loose meat) and have in fact visited the John Deere plant. For other visitors, I highly recommend the Iowa Caucus exhibit at the Iowa Historical Society in downtown Des Moines; a trip to Le Mars, the self-declared "ice cream capital of the world"; and a trip to the Surf Ballroom in Mason City, where Buddy Holly played his last show in 1959 before the fateful plane crash.

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Albany, N.Y.: Why should anyone care what the candidate's expectations are? It's not like they are playing golf with handicaps. If Obama wins he wins, and that would be huge. Also, do you think she might come in third in Iowa? How would she spin that?

Anne E. Kornblut: If Obama wins on Jan. 3 and Clinton comes in third, that will present an undeniable problem for the Clintons -- albeit one that they can come back at with a subsequent victory in New Hampshire and the states that follow. That is why they have worked so hard to build up their operations in later states -- in part so she could survive even a third-place finish in Iowa.

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Anonymous: Bill Clinton as savior? Why do people rally to this mentality? Clinton was elected twice, but in both cases he clearly benefited from having a third party candidate. He never had high public poll numbers and he never has been able to bring victory to other Democratic candidates -- they lost both houses while he was president. Again, why is he viewed in such high regard?

Anne E. Kornblut: That is a matter of some debate among Democrats. Not to tout the competition, but Matt Bai has a piece in the upcoming New York Times Magazine that discusses the downside to Clintonism, and the existential conflict many Democrats have about whether he was really a saint, savior, you name it.

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Washington: Hi there. I know you are covering the Democratic side of the race in Iowa, but was wondering something -- do you have any sense of what folks see in Huckabee? He seems very extreme to me in his views, almost like he would be the most extreme candidate out there, except maybe Tancredo. What is the main appeal, do you think?

Anne E. Kornblut: You're right, I'm not paying as close attention to the Republican side, but it is possible to a casual observer to see what makes Huckabee stand out. He's very open and approachable-seeming, and has a genuine vibe about him. Mind you, that says nothing about his actual views. But his demeanor helps him distinguish himself in a field that has a feisty New Yorker, a very crisp -- some would say smooth -- former governor of Massachusetts, an actor who has struggled to seem enthusiastic on the campaign trail and a blunt-spoken senator from Arizona.

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Miami: Would you please compare the power of Madeline Albright to that of Condi Rice? As Secretary of State, how much influence did Albright have with Clinton? Was she as loyal and dedicated as Condi? Also, in your view, which woman has the most power to help create policy and implement it? Thank you.

Anne E. Kornblut: What a great question. It's hard to measure exactly how Albright would influence a Hillary Clinton administration, but she is certainly one of the senator's closest friends in the foreign policy universe and probably would be -- now that she is old enough to be past the ambitious phase of her life -- a very trusted adviser on the outside if Clinton were to win. I have a feeling that Rice has had more direct, hands-on experience with President Bush, as a result of his relative lack of experience and her being directly in the administration. But Albright is certainly a fully trusted advocate for Clinton.

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Albany, N.Y.: Have you tried Boswell's in Des Moines or The Machine Shed in Davenport?

Anne E. Kornblut: Neither! I will try.

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Indianapolis: If we accept that the media (or perhaps just newspapers) are not that powerful that they cannot be the force that "elects" the president, why did you and others get into newspapering? It seems to me that you either get into it to "change the world" or "inform the world" ... so which is it, or is it something else?

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a terrific question. I think you are right -- some people get into journalism to "change the world," others to "inform," others to "see the world" and others still to tell stories about it. I'm probably a combination of all four, but the longer I've done this the more I've realized that our most critical role is to inform, and that what people do with that information is largely beyond our control. For better or for worse. If I wanted to change the world, I suspect I would have by now gone into business or politics. And who knows, someday maybe I will! But for now, this is far too fascinating to contemplate anything else.

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Magic Johnson in the grocery store yesterday: Seeing a black man in Iowa would be unique.

washingtonpost.com: The Magic & Bill Show, Providing The Charisma Assist (Post, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: Actually, not so: there's a fairly substantial (or at least larger than you might imagine) African American population in parts of Northeastern Iowa. But it's true, it's not the same proportion as the rest of the country.

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Washington: It seems that Rudy Giuliani's frontrunner status is steadily eroding. What are your thought on his strategy to skip the early primary states and get his campaign jump-started in Florida?

Anne E. Kornblut: Great, great question. I think the answer is, we'll find out whether it's possible to wait that long to really engage in the primary process. It always was going to be a tough one for Giuliani to pull off; we'll see whether, by dint of his personality, he can.

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Raleigh, N.C.: A couple of questions about Clinton. First, she's had the whole Obama drug-use thing be an issue; she states that she knew nothing about a senior staffer, but she's a control freak and I don't buy that. Then, they seem to continue to mention how sorry they are that Obama's drug use was brought up -- kind of a back door-way to keep it in the light. Why is she given a pass on this? I can't imagine someone doing this for any other candidate. Shouldn't someone discuss her clear hypocrisy? Secondly, on Dec. 16, 1998, her husband started bombing Iraq. He claimed (rightfully) that Saddam refused to comply with U.N. inspections and sanctions, that he possessed WMD, and that he posed a threat to the West. That is, he used the same argument as Bush. Why isn't this ever brought up?

Anne E. Kornblut: Do you really think she's gotten a pass? I think we spent a couple of days going over her campaign's going negative on Obama, but perhaps you are right. And on Iraq, I will take your point. Other people's views?

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Las Vegas: For you gamblers out there, the just-posted over-under on the amount of Cheney's personal documents lost or destroyed in the fire is five year's worth.

washingtonpost.com: Fire at White House Compound (washingtonpost.com, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: That's great.

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Re: Dodd's filibuster...: You know, I was very impressed when Sen. Dodd threatened to filibuster the bill that would give immunity to the phone companies on the illegal collection of phone data -- he was successful, at least for now, at getting Reid to shelve it. I don't know if it was a political move to help his candidacy, but what did not impress me, and saddened me, was that no other Democratic candidate offered to help him. So, are these candidates doing any senatorial business out on the trail?

washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Dodd Away From the Stump, But Still Talking (washingtonpost.com, Dec. 17)

Anne E. Kornblut: What a great observation.

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Kensington, Md.: I think a little too much has been made of the "subliminal white cross" bookshelf in back of Mike Huckabee in his Christmas ad. And I did enjoy his response to the fuss -- confessing that if you play the ad backwards it says: "Paul is dead. Paul is dead." Have we become paranoid with so much 2008 saturation?

washingtonpost.com: Huckabee Stands by Christmas Ad (AP, Dec. 18)

Anne E. Kornblut: Remember when Bush used to say "subliminable"? I am with you on the Huckabee ad. As a regular viewer of Iowa television these days, I can say the ad really does stand out -- but not because of its religious content or subtext; it's just a warm and fuzzy ad, in contrast with all the other political talk.

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Hey anonymous: This is reality calling! Every poll done at the time shows Ross Perot's voters had absolutely no effect on the outcome of either election. They would have split evenly if Perot were not in. Just because you wish something were true doesn't make it so.

Anne E. Kornblut: This remains a point of contention even now...

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Richmond, Va.: Can you explain how it works? Several well-known papers have endorsed John McCain, but this is the same John McCain who has flipped on immigration in response to GOP voters who were, as I remember, quite furious with him on this issue. Yet I'm not hearing the flip-flopper, pandering, etc., label applied to McCain, an omission that seems to be in sharp contrast to other media, pundits, commentators et al who have been ruthless in pointing out "changes in positions" for every other candidate. Why does he get a pass -- and endorsements?

Anne E. Kornblut: It's a good query, and one I don't know the answer to, so I'll just post it here for all to consider.

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Arlington, Va.: Anne, as you've been in Iowa so much this past year, what do you miss most about Washington?

Anne E. Kornblut: I miss not living out of a suitcase! Truth be told, Iowa is really a lovely place, so I don't feel as homesick as I could. But it was something of a shock yesterday morning to hear the weather announcer declare: "It's going to be a great day! High of 28."

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Arlington, Va.: Hi Anne. Do you think the latest Spears family drama will effect Hillary Clinton's campaign? Just kidding. My real question is whether it is too late to try and "humanize" Sen. Clinton. By this point, we all know her and either love her or hate her. Her strongest trait is her toughness and experience; I don't think anyone would vote for her because she is soft and cuddly.

Anne E. Kornblut: Ha! And is it true that Mama Spears is putting out a how-not-to book on mothering? That was the word here in Iowa last night. (And they say people aren't paying attention to the news.) Anyway. I tend to agree with you that the "human" side of Clinton is one that has been hard for the campaign to convey, but not for lack of trying. She simply is more comfortable talking about policies than her personal experiences. And even this "humanize" campaign hasn't been all that enduring, to be honest. It was about a day of testimonials and a couple of ads, and now she's back to talking about her proposals under a banner that reads "Working for Change, Working for You."

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Richmond, Va.: Thanks for taking the questions and keep warm! The Constitution says there should not be a religious test for office, but isn't there a de facto religious test in the GOP (and somewhat in the Dems as well) with all of the questioning about one's faith? Is there a candidate out there who has just plain said it's none of anyone's business, or would that be political suicide? Thanks.

Anne E. Kornblut: If anything, this election isn't as faith-based as some have been in the past (Giuliani, for example, is not exactly a religious poster child; all the Democrats, while faithful Christians, have made a point of emphasizing inclusiveness). But you're right, when was the last time an all-out atheist ran and won? Christopher Hitchens?

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Portland, Ore.: Actually, Obama said he'd support Dodd's filibuster.

Anne E. Kornblut: I will post this...

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Penfield, N.Y.: Being an old political junkie (I first voted for Stevenson in 1952 and grew up in the old JFK-Tip O'Neil congressional district) I find it weird that most of the punditry still gives credence to the early small states as being so important. Granted that they might throw up a candidate thought to have had no chance, such as Huckabee, but with the huge vote on Feb. 5 coming so soon after the early small states, does anyone think that the race may not be defined until states such as California and New York weigh in? And with the Republicans in such disarray and the Democrats at least evenly split between Clinton and Obama at this time, with many others going for Edwards and the second tier or on the fence, what is the chance of an open convention in either party? 1952 all over again would be fun.

Anne E. Kornblut: It's a great question, and my lame answer is, we'll have to wait and find out if the old system still holds. My sense is that, regardless of how big the Feb. 5 states are, the early states still matter because they telegraph a signal to the states that follow. Will they matter as much in a year when so many people already know the front-runners? We will have to see...

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Clinton Approval Ratings: Never dipped below 50 percent after 1995. Never. It drives the Clinton haters crazy, I know, but look it up. Even throughout the Ken Starr/Linda Tripp brouhaha, his approval ratings were 55 percent. Some people never will accept that Clinton was a popular president.

Anne E. Kornblut: Another good point...

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Re: Raleigh, N.C.: If I remember correctly, the Iraq government had refuse entry of the inspectors and that was one of the reasons for the bombings. In the case of Bush, the inspectors were in the country and were pulled out so he could start the war. They never were given the chance to finish the task.

Anne E. Kornblut: And I will post this also...

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Why McCain?: I sense that he's everyone's second choice. As a conservative, I like Mitt, but I'd be fine with McCain.

Anne E. Kornblut: And another nice point.

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Iowa: Nice to see Rekha Basu, the liberal conscience of the Des Moines Register, endorse Obama today with a very thoughtful column. Was not impressed with the Register endorsement of Clinton, even though it fit with their current corporate mentality. (And I grew up reading the Register.)

washingtonpost.com: Basu: Obama can heal divisions, win hearts and minds (Des Moines Register, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: Here it is for all to read...

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Portland, Ore.: Hi Anne -- the Washington Post/ABC poll shows Obama and Clinton on top in Iowa with Edwards a distant third; the InsiderAdvantage poll released yesterday shows almost the exact opposite. Obviously someone is wrong here, so what's the answer? And by the way, could the fine folks at washingtonpost.com please, pretty please, bring your crack pollster Jon Cohen to these chats and answer the many questions people have regarding the art/science of polling? We'd all be much obliged. Thanks.

washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: Washington Post Polling Department (washingtonpost.com, Friday at noon ET)

Anne E. Kornblut: I will pass along the request! I know it has to do with the way the voters are screened -- to see which voters are likely to attend, versus very likely to attend, etc. -- but I will leave it to the experts as you suggest.

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Re: McCain and Flip-Flopping: He took an unpopular national position that may have made sense as the senator from Arizona. He still calls for compassion, but says the American people need to see something -- i.e. enforcement of existing laws -- that tells us this will be the last time we have this problem. I think if he took a popular position and then abandoned it once it was unpopular he would be called a flip-flopper, but not the other way around...

Anne E. Kornblut: And another point of view...

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Floris, Va.: While The Post poll today shows Hillary ahead in Iowa followed by Obama and Edwards, you fail to mention that another poll released at the same time shows Edwards ahead of Hillary and Obama. Your poll also shows that Hillary has the largest degree of support among the 65-plus age group, which will hurt her if there's bad weather. Still anyone's race to win in my view -- or do you see someone pulling away?

Anne E. Kornblut: Absolutely anyone's to win. Absolutely. Although I do believe that Obama's number, while within the margin of error, is very slightly ahead of Clinton's. Still -- we are describing it as basically a tie that will be won on the ground, depending on each candidate's turnout effort. There is good news for each of the front-runners in our poll.

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Anonymous: Today's Washington Post/ABC poll shows Hillary creaming Obama on who has the best experience to be president, 45 percent to 9 percent. This shows that Hillary's message of her experience over Obama's is working. But when you look at the numbers regarding who has the best chance of getting elected president,Hillary leads by just 35 percent to 33 percent.

Hillary's 35 percent number is the same as it was last July, and Obama's number has increased by nearly 50 percent over the same time period. Hillary's campaigns message of her vast experience is working, but yet she's losing the head-to-head vote. What's Plan B for the Clinton campaign? Flying around Iowa with a black celebrity showing off Hillary's warm-and-fuzzy side?

washingtonpost.com: Iowa Poll Spotlights Importance Of Turnout (Post, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: Good question, and you're right, there's been a fair -- maybe even surprising -- amount of movement on the important traits in this race. That is one reason you see Obama hitting hard the idea that he is electable -- both because it's a trait he can try to "steal" from Clinton, and because it's something Democrats care about. Her strategy for now appears to be continuing to go after Obama on experience, which remains a weak point for him, and one that worries Democrats. But there are 11 days left ... stay tuned.

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Anonymous: Isn't it a huge problem for Hillary when after eight years as first lady and seven years as senator and two weeks before the Iowa Caucus, her campaign sends her out on a "get to know me" tour? Wasn't it the group Simply Red that sang "if you don't know me by now, you will never, never, never know me ... ooh ooh ooh"?

washingtonpost.com: Milbank: Hillary, We Thoroughly Knew Ye (Post, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: Somehow I doubt we will be seeing the campaign roll that out as her new theme song. ... This has been an ongoing dilemma for the Clinton campaign -- how to reintroduce her, protect her privacy and put forward her narrative, which people feel they already know. In truth, the past few days' effort hasn't been all that different than what we've seen in general from her on the campaign trail, except that she brought her mother and daughter out very briefly. But there's a long way to go...

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Re: Giuliani's ties to Kerik and Co.: What a fascinating -- and obviously well-researched -- article in today's Post by John Solomon and Matthew Mosk on the unraveling of the corruption involving Kerik and Ray and their ties to Giuliani. This is a huge and ugly story -- and cannot, I think, withstand the usual denunciation that the people involved are not credible, can it? And will the details in The Post's expose follow Giuliani around and undo him?

washingtonpost.com: Giuliani's Kerik Woes Resurface Through Informant (Post, Dec. 19)

Anne E. Kornblut: Thanks for the note, and we will see...

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Anne E. Kornblut: Sen. Clinton is here at her event, so I have to get back to work, but thank you all for your questions over the last hour. As always, terrific hearing from everyone, and see you soon.

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