K Street

K Street columnist Jeffrey Birnbaum will be online to discuss the intersection of business, politics and government on Tuesday, Jan. 8, at 3 p.m. ET.

A list of Birnbaum's columns can be found here.

A transcript follows.

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Jeffrey Birnbaum: Hello. I'm writing today from New Hampshire, the center of the political universe. If you have any questions about what's happening here, as well as on K Street, please don't hesitate to ask. Might as well get started. Let's go.

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Annapolis: Will a new president get rid of those lobbyists finally?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I'm afraid there's no chance of that. Lobbying is a right protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution. The same amendment that gives freedom of the press and of speech. The right to lobby is called the right to petition for redress of grievances, a right that goes back to the Magna Carta. Lobbying and therefore lobbyists will never be gotten rid of. They will, in fact, grow in numbers, in my view. The upcoming election will produce plenty of change; there will be a new president and one who had not been in the White House as vice president. And to Washington, change means uncertainty and that spurs interest groups to hire more lobbyists to figure out what's up. Even if anti-lobbyist Barack Obama wins the White House, 2009 will produce a bumper year on K Street.

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Washington: What's your bet? Obama and McCain in New Hampshire?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: So long as you know this is a guess. And educated by the flood of poll that we've seen lately and since the Iowa caucuses last week . . .

It would be a surprise if Hillary Clinton manages to beat Barack Obama today. She could well, of course. But the expectation given the polls since Iowa is that she will lose. That would put her in a very difficult position. She would have to remake her message and her campaign hierarchy, I think, if he would be able to revive her campaign.

On the Republican side, it is a much closer contest. I would not even venture a guess whether Mitt Romney or John McCain will win here. Polls lately show that race within the margin of error, which means it's really a tie as best we can decipher.

That will make the next big contest, in South Carolina, a very important contest. And one that maybe neither of the possible winners here in New Hampshire will be able to win, against Mike Huckabee. That means that the Republican race is very unsettled.

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New York: I keep hearing about change, change, change. But from skeptics like the Post I read that change will never happen. How can that really be the case? I bet change does come. That's what elections are for. The people who keep saying no are the ones who will be defeated. Voters will get their way.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I bow to your criticism. Yes, I have seen remarkable, unexpected changes overcome Washington. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 was a complete rewrite of the federal income tax. THAT was a big change. And you are correct about what could happen. I do think that voters are fed up with the terrible dysfunction of Washington. Nothing ever seems to get done. And when it does get done, it happens with such terrible infighting and ugliness. And then the problems that are supposed to be solved, never are. People are tired of that and are eager for a new start. That's why a fresh face with like Obama is so enticing, I think. His message of hope and bipartisanship is a very compelling message given the public's distaste for Washington now. That's creating a wave, I think, that he is riding.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Birnbaum, I'm a big fan. Could you please comment on what effect it will have on the lobbying culture of D.C. if someone like Obama or Huckabee were to be elected? The reason I ask is that neither have a sort of "government in waiting." Especially, Huckabee, who is a complete outsider. If a lot of new people come into power through the election of an outsider, how will that effect lobbying?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Thank you for the kind comment.

You bring up one of the important dilemmas of the "change" agenda. Lobbyists and other Washington insiders know what has happened and how things work. That kind of institutional knowledge is very valuable and can prevent debilitating mistakes that new president can, and often do, make. Presidents who come to town without that help--or who shun it because they hate lobbyists for ideological or rhetorical reasons--could well be doomed to make those errors and thus hurt themselves and their legislative hopes. On the other hand, starting fresh with new folks and new ideas can be exciting and can also end up with important progress in ways that the old guard would never have embraced. That would be amazing and interesting to watch. My view is that some combination of "wiseman" advice for a fresh agenda is the combination that might work. And the incoming president, whoever that might be, should be careful to have a combination.

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Washington, D.C.: Hillary will come back. Don't write her off. And McCain is a has-been. He'll be gone too.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Well, I wish I could write with that much conviction. But I do think you are correct about Sen. Clinton. If she loses today here in New Hampshire, she certainly does have the time and resources to come back. I think she would have to overhaul her campaign to make that happen. But no one should think she is out of the race based on what might happen today. As for counting out McCain, I would say you might want to consider doing that if he loses here in New Hampshire. If he wins, I would be very hesitant to do so.

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Old Town, Va.: I think lobbyists will lose their jobs and won't be in demand like you say. Lobbyists are the bad guys in this election and they will feel the pain.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I'm certainly willing to be proven wrong. If lobbyists are tossed out after the election, or something close to that, that would be a fascinating story. I would be happy to cover it. But I do stick to my prediction. Write back and we can compare notes and see who came closer to being correct.

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Washington, D.C.: Will Trent Lott be a good lobbyist, or a rich one?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I think both--though I try not to use the word "good" to describe a lobbyist. He is likely to be a very effective lobbyist. Almost no one knows how the House and Senate work better than he does. He will be barred from lobbying his old colleagues on Capitol Hill for a year, but he can tell others how to do so in that time and he surely will do a lot of that--and for very high fees no doubt. His partnership with John Breaux will probably be one of the most in-demand lobbying firms of 2008, I predict.

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Bethesda, Md.: The story about Congressman Richard Baker taking the job at the hedge fund association did not impress me. I never heard of Richard Baker and it does not matter to me whether he takes the job or not. Why is that news and why did you write such a story?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: You are referring to the story I wrote last week about Rep. Baker (R-La.) being courted by the main hedge fund lobby to become its president. Baker has not decided to take the job, but I hear that he is the main candidate. In any case, I wrote the story because the hedge fund lobby is a big-money lobby in Washington, and it is very much in the news these days with so much trouble in the capital markets. And even though you might not have heard of Baker, he was for eight years the chairman of the House's subcommittee on capital markets and is well known on Wall Street for that reason. That the overseer of the markets might become an advocate for part of them is news in my view. It also was a story that was, baically, exclusive to the Washington Post and we were proud to put it out there best if not first. That's what we do well.

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New Haven, Conn.: If Hillary loses in New Hampshire, does that mean she has no chance to win? I worry that Obama would get trounced because he's too new and inexperienced. Then what?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Judging by the enthusiam of the crowds that I've seen with Obama, I would question whether Obama, if he gets the Democratic nomination, is unelectable. He really is riding a wave and he is a phenom. His speeches touch a chord, and even Republicans who come to see him come away impressed. Energy, excitement those are things that are rare in politics, but extremely meaningul in a presidential fight. Keep your eye on Obama. Don't count him out. At least not yet. The same sort of thing was said about a young Bill Clinton, you might recall.

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Los Angeles: It's about time that lobbyists had their time in the box. Obama has put them there and that's a very good thing. It would be so great if lobbyists were thrown from the bus. Don't you think so too?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I actually do not think it would be a good thing for lobbyists to be "thrown from the bus." Lobbyists provide most of the information that lawmakers and others use to make decisions. All sorts of wrenching mistakes would be made in legislation and regulation if lobbyists did not intercede and protest on behalf of interests that would be impacted by the changes. Congress is not an expert in anything really and the world is a complicated place. A little care is a good idea in these very important decisions in my view. And that means there is a place for lobbyists in the system.

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Jeffrey Birnbaum: Well, that was a very full hour. Thanks so much for writing it. I have to go back and watch the voting happen. It ought to be an exciting night. See you again online in a couple week. Please write in then! Cheers and all best.

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New York, N.Y.: The current president is taking measures to make certain laws, tax breaks, etc, permanent. How difficult will it be for the next president to overrule the Bush decisions?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: It will be very difficult because the federal budget deficit is so high, and might well get higher. Only a Republican president would have any chance of extending those tax provisions, but if Congress stays Democratic, I would not bet on success.

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washingtonpost.com: This concludes today's discussion. Thank you for joining in.

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