Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post National Political Reporter
Wednesday, January 9, 2008 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Anne E. Kornblut was online Wednesday, Jan. 9 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Anne E. Kornblut: Greetings from Manchester, everyone! What a week. Let's go ahead and get started ... please send in your questions.

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Dryden, N.Y.: What a night. Thanks you for your stories. How about a comment on old-fashioned fieldwork? Obama had the best organization in Iowa; Clinton built on the Shaheen-Sullivan-Clemons team that turned New Hampshire blue. What difference do you think these superior organizations meant in the two victories?

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a really good question. Organization arguably mattered more in Iowa -- both because it was a caucus and because it yielded a larger margin for Obama -- and the Clinton campaign is crediting her performance in the past five days with her victory as much as any ground operation. But there's no doubt that having that infrastructure in place helped her get there last night.

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Lake Carmel, N.Y. : Anne, are New Hampshire voters really different -- more contrary -- after all? Is it possible that they really detest outsiders telling them what they want, and that the polls writing off Clinton and the piling on by the punditry just ticked them off? Also, as a state, is the populace better-educated than most?

Anne E. Kornblut: Another great one. New Hampshire voters are most certainly contrarians; don't forget that Patrick Buchanan won here. And they are also, at least in the southern part of the state, well-educated. So, does that mean that this result was an outlier? I don't think we know yet. It was striking to me last night that Sen. Obama did not dismiss New Hampshire the way Clinton did Iowa.

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A Heartfelt Plea: Can we puh-leeze declare a moratorium on "Comeback Kid"? This isn't '92, she's not a kid, and using that tired, depressing phrase just highlights how much reporters want her to be president.

washingtonpost.com: With Echoes of Clinton '92, Another 'Comeback Kid' (Post, Jan. 9)

Anne E. Kornblut: Well, I definitely would have to dispute the notion that reporters "want" Sen. Clinton (or anyone in particular, for that matter) to be president. But I agree with you, the "comeback kid" phrase has gotten plenty of use/overuse at this point. But we're not the ones saying it -- it is a direct line from the campaigns, not just Clinton's but McCain's too, as you probably heard last night.

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Washington: Joe Klein says Obama has been talking to Condi Rice about Kenya. How can he be an agent of change when he's apparently in so tight with the current White House?

washingtonpost.com: Obama's Other Life (Time.com, Jan. 7)

Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that he called the State Department before calling Kenyan officials -- a matter of protocol, so candidates don't start messing up diplomacy -- but he relies most heavily on Susan Rice, one of his chief foreign policy advisers, for his own policy development.

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Perplexed in Los Angeles: So let me get this straight: Clinton winning New Hampshire is a "remarkable political comeback," according to a washingtonpost.com headline, because five days prior she lost Iowa, where 11 people voted in somebody's basement? Didn't David Broder write just before the Iowa caucus that Iowa meant nothing? (Yes, he did.)

washingtonpost.com: Wait for New Hampshire (Post, Jan. 3)

Anne E. Kornblut: By the Clinton campaign's own account, they were deeply stung by the Iowa results -- and we really won't know until it's all over which states were determinative and which ones weren't; it changes from cycle to cycle. It could well be that South Carolina or Nevada or even California could be a make-or-break state, which was not expected from the outset. We just have to wait and see what happens (which, believe me, is a very frustrating stance to have to take).

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Avon Park, Fla.: Is Barack Obama in serious danger of having money dry up and facing pressure to bow out, given that he performed way below expectations in New Hampshire, or is this race a pure toss-up?

Anne E. Kornblut: Oh, there is no pressure for him to bow out at this point. He won Iowa fair and square, and was within two points in New Hampshire (let's not forget: former President Bill Clinton also came in second place in New Hampshire, and declared that a victory). This race is wide open at this point, and now becomes a national one.

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Asheville, N.C.: I'm looking at the voter turnout numbers for 2000 versus 2008 for Iowa and New Hampshire caucus/primary. Total Republican voters are up 30,000. Total Democratic voters are up 300,000. In 2000, the two states cast about 215,000 Democratic and 330,000 Republican votes for various candidates. In 2008, those numbers are 515,000 and 360,000, respectively. Wow. Is this the "Bush Effect"? If the trend continues through South Carolina and Nevada, does it become a story in its own right?

washingtonpost.com: Tight Democratic Race, McCain Bid Spur Record Turnout (Post, Jan. 9)

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a terrific observation, and yes, I think it does. Congressional leaders especially are thrilled by those figures; and Democrats generally agree that -- no matter whom the nominee is -- they really will have to mess things up to not win this November. Which of course is one of the themes that the Republican candidates are running on.

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St. Cloud, Minn.: I hope that the results yesterday will calm down the tone of the reporting. You are all very good when you report on what has happened, but for the past few days the emphasis -- even in The Post -- has been on speculation and reporting on what you think (or are sure?) will happen, and why. Mr. Kaiser last night was urging patience; he's right.

washingtonpost.com: Discussion Transcript: Post Associate Editor Robert G. Kaiser on New Hampshire Returns (washingtonpost.com, Jan. 8)

Anne E. Kornblut: I agree! I'm a big fan of just waiting. That said, the expectations-management aspect of the campaign has become such a huge part of the campaigns' strategies that it is virtually impossible to leave it out -- so we've been doing our best to rely on the most solid predictive evidence that exists, and to try not to declare anything finished until it actually is. I appreciate the vote of support in that!

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Arlington, Va.: Despite her (slim) victory last night, I really don't think we should be so presumptuous as to label Hillary Clinton the front-runner here. So far only two states have voted -- one went to Obama, one went to Clinton. Objectively, they're in a dead heat. Why not simply call it that? Call the spade a spade, if you will.

Anne E. Kornblut: A very good point. It is a dead heat. My preference would be to consider them both front-runners at this point. Thank you for the comment.

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Santa Cruz, Calif.: Do we know what fraction of New Hampshire voted absentee? And what fraction voted for Hillary? My wife contends that the absentees likely voted for Hillary, at a time when she was the acknowledged front-runner, and that Obama actually would have won if everyone had decided on election day. So I'm curious about the facts.

Anne E. Kornblut: I do not know the answer, but I will try to find out.

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New York: On one of the shows last night, Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania was speculating on a possible Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket. Do you think the party establishment would put any pressure on the campaigns to play nice with each other and not go too negative -- at least not so negative that they won't be able to kiss and make up later?

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a great question, though it prompts me to wonder: what party establishment? Howard Dean is the DNC chairman, sure, but the party as a whole effectively is divided in two now between Obama and Clinton people, with some floaters in between, and certainly there is no one with the clout to tell either side what to do. That said, I am sure there will be voices inside both camps urging caution, for the reason you cite.

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Helena, Mont.: So, Hillary Clinton delivers coffee and bagels to press bus and the reporters don't even have the courtesy to say "thank you," much less have any questions? So what are you doing to earn your salary? Just talking to each other about your feelings when she came on the bus? Sounds like you guys need another line of work!

washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Clinton Joins the Girls on the Bus (washingtonpost.com, Jan. 2)

Anne E. Kornblut: LOL, I don't think it was quite as dire as that. But thank you for the question. Her arrival on the bus last week was something of a shock to the press corps -- she has spent years avoiding us, and never has done anything of the kind before. In the few seconds it took us to collect our wits, she was gone (though we did shout thank you -- lest my mother get after me for my manners, I have to say that). I suspect that, the lessons of Iowa learned, we will be seeing a lot more of her; she has in fact been conducting frequent press availabilities in the past few days. With any luck we'll get to ask her a lot of questions from here on out.

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Valdosta, Ga.: Thanks for taking my question. How much do you feel the New Hampshire results show us what Iowa might have been like if second choices did not also count in Iowa?

Anne E. Kornblut: To be honest, I have not had time to go back and dissect all the numbers, but it's a good question. The Clinton campaign certainly feels that the quirks of the caucus system, and the second-choice aspect in particular, helped add to Obama's margin there. And they've always said they'd do better in a straight primary, and it turns out they were right. I will add this question to my list of things to find out!

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Greenville, S.C.: Anne -- I've been listening this morning to a lot of "pundits" explaining why their predictions did not come top pass in the Hillary/Obama race last night. They've used all the old cliches, i.e. voters lied, white voters won't vote for a black man, voters changed their minds on the way to the polling places, etc. How about this; a lot of journalists, reporters, pundits wanted Obama to win, therefore the spin that he was 12 points ahead Monday was put out as gospel?

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a good question. I think it's probably a mixture of reasons. There is no doubt that the polls failed to pick up on the change of momentum in the final days: and let's not forget -- there was only a five-day window to figure it out; it was over a weekend; and there was a debate smack in the middle of it all.

At the same time, even the Clinton campaign was anticipating, based on their own research, a loss of by at least 5 points. I'm pretty sure they weren't rooting for Obama. Is there a pro-Obama media bias? The Clinton camp, particularly the former president, believes so. But I hold to my long-held belief that the press is biased toward a good story, not any one candidate in particular. Looks like we've got one here.

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Boston: Who writes the headlines for your front page political stories? "Lazarus-like" resurrection is an absolute gem. We know he is old, but that old? Do the reporters on his campaign trail hold a mirror under his nose every time he falls asleep?

washingtonpost.com: A Dramatic Second Act for the Senator From Arizona (Post, Jan. 9)

Anne E. Kornblut: I am sorry to admit that I'm out on the campaign trail and haven't even seen my own paper yet today! Will check it out. Thanks for the observation.

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Romney?: Can we stick a fork in him now? Please?

Anne E. Kornblut: Now, now...

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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Anne! How's this for a conspiracy theory: Bush's recent comments on the run-in with Iran sent undecided New Hampshire Democratic voters to the right -- and thus to Hillary, who is the candidate Republicans really want to run against because they think they can beat her (insert Karl Rove politics-of-fear angle here). What do you think?

Anne E. Kornblut: Hm, I haven't heard this one. And to be honest, I'm not sure the Republican machine is organized enough to make such conspiracies happen at this point. But I'll keep an eye out...

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Cabin John, Md.: The Republicans obviously aren't thrilled with any of their candidates, so they need a new one that they can all get behind. How about Joe Gibbs, now that he needs a job? Joe Gibbs for President!

Anne E. Kornblut: Brilliant! I'll start the rumor here.

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Baltimore: So how many actual delegates does each candidate have now? How many are needed to win? Is there a table anywhere on The Post's site that will be kept updated to keep us numbers freaks happy?

washingtonpost.com: Democratic delegate count | Republican delegate count (Wikipedia via CNN)

Anne E. Kornblut: Let me see about where that feature is, and if we can make it easier to find. I believe that 67 delegates have been won so far on the Democratic side; 45 in Iowa; 22 in New Hampshire; and then there is some number of super-delegates that already have been committed to some candidates. Feb. 5 is the big prize: 1,681 delegates. (But as I am not a numbers freak myself, I am going to double-check those numbers before putting them in the paper, so forgive me if I'm off a point or two.)

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Clinton and women: I'm wondering whether the difference between Clinton's showing in Iowa and in New Hampshire may have to do with women. The middle-class, middle-aged woman in New Hampshire identifies with Clinton; in Iowa many of the same women identify as Christians and therefore vote for Huckabee. What do you think?

Anne E. Kornblut: Well, it's a good question, and we're going to start looking at that now. I do think that women who voted for Huckabee never, ever were going to support Clinton. The better question is, why did so many Democratic women in Iowa, especially younger ones, support Obama? And which trend will carry over to the future states?

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Shrewsbury, Mass.: Breaking News! We can all forget polling and pollsters and pundits -- ahead of the results. New Hampshire proved it's all horse exhaust. Thank goodness, that's settled.

Anne E. Kornblut: I thought we settled that in 2004? To be fair, the Des Moines Register had a poll right before the caucus that nailed in almost perfectly on the head. So the question to my mind isn't whether to throw the whole industry out, but which ones to trust.

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Roseland, N.J.: You know why I think Hillary got such a huge surge in support? Columns like Maureen Dowd's today, written with headlines like, " target='_blank">Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House?" I know a lot of woman who may not like Hillary but respect her and identify with her, and they're getting incredibly angry about the progressively dismissive way she gets treated by the Dowds and Matthewses of the world. What do you think?

Anne E. Kornblut: I think there is something to that. There is no way for me to quantify it, but women on the campaign trail in the past couple of days expressed empathy toward Clinton, especially after the debate. And certainly Chris Matthews has taken her on quite aggressively in the past few weeks (though I did hear him tell Howard Wolfson on air last night that he never would underestimate Sen. Clinton again). All that said, it is true: When Sen. Clinton shows her human side -- or plays the victim, depending on how you want to characterize it -- the tides tend to turn in her favor. The question is how she handles it.

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Rosslyn, Va.: Last night in her speech, Clinton said she was glad so many young voters had voted with their "hearts and minds," with definite emphasis on the "and." For someone like me, a 23-year-old Obama supporter, how is something like that going to draw me to her side? I thought it was a pretty tactless remark. I plan to vote with my heart and mind -- for Obama.

Anne E. Kornblut: You have put your finger on one of the great challenges for Sen. Clinton going forward. Every time she (and her husband) criticize Obama, and by extension Obama's supporters, they risk insulting the electorate. They did it after Iowa -- basically implying Iowa voters were flawed for backing Obama. I will be as curious as you to see whether they stay that sharp-elbowed going forward.

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Albuquerque, N.M.: My boy Richardson is done, isn't he?

Anne E. Kornblut: I am a firm believer that no one should be counted out until they either lose straight-out or take themselves out of the running. (I am proud to say that I said last summer, during the McCain implosion, that he wasn't finished). Things don't look great for Richardson now, and if something were to happen to Clinton and Obama, Edwards would be the natural beneficiary. But I am sticking to my never-say-never rule for now

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New York: Hi, Anne. You mentioned Howard Dean in an earlier response. I remember prior to the 2006 midterms, there was a lot of sturm und drang between Dean and Rahm Emanuel about building Democratic resources in all 50 states vs. focusing on states where Dems already had strength. Do you know if this battle is still raging or if it has been settled yet?

Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that there has been a truce. But -- you should ask that question of my colleague Jonathan Weisman during his next chat, that's much more in his wheelhouse.

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Olney, Md.: Why does the media keep saying that Hillary has been helped by a gender gap? In Iowa, women split between Hillary and Obama, but men overwhelmingly went for Obama. The gender gap seems to be also helping Obama -- many men appear unwilling to vote for a woman. I think Gloria Steinem's op-ed in the Times was right on.

washingtonpost.com: Women Are Never Front-Runners (New York Times, Jan. 8)

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a good point; thank you for the link.

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Osawatomie, Kan.: Seriously, why am I not hearing any talk about Obama's concession last night? I'm a fairly staunch Republican and I can't see myself voting for the guy, but I thought that was one of the most stirring speeches I've ever seen -- just an amazing grasp of the moment -- is Washington already writing off oratorical powers and the power to inspire as some sort of parlor trick? Are you simply buying into the Hilary storyline?

Anne E. Kornblut: Thank you for this -- very thoughtful comment. You have nailed one of the essential new dynamics of this race, which is the debate about whether words mean something on their own or not. Obama has contended, and demonstrated (again last night) that words alone can move mountains. Clinton has argued back that words are meaningless without action. I have a feeling you will keep hearing from Obama a lot in the next few weeks, even if last night was not "his turn."

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Indianapolis: At some point, don't voters have to consider who can win the general election? I think the Republicans did that last night with McCain -- they don't love him, but he's unquestionably the most electable candidate they have. My Democrats, on the other hand, decided to support someone who I don't think has a prayer of winning a national election. I hope South Carolina Democrats are smarter than that.

Anne E. Kornblut: Another point of view...

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Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Hill went on the air and teared up. Bill went on the air and whined. Flush from the victory in New Hampshire, are we going to see more of Weepy and Whiney? After all, whatever works, right? In case folks in your profession missed it, Clinton failed to convince 71 percent of Democrats in Iowa and 61 percent of Democrats in New Hampshire. Do you people actually believe/think that she's going to coalesce the Democratic Party around her for the general election? As if Richardson and Edwards voters are going to be swept into line? How about some skepticism from "trained" journalists for a change. Thanks much.

Anne E. Kornblut: And another...

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Atlanta: Hillary Clinton's win was certainly surprising -- but I can't help but draw a parallel to Truman in 1948. They both were come-from-behind wins. It seems like perhaps something went on in those several days, but I think the key is in demographics in the exit poll. Women, lower-income voters and registered Democrats all came through for her. It seems like their solidarity with her was at the heart of her upset.

Anne E. Kornblut: It seems that way, but we're going to mine the data also to see if that was really the case. Thank you for your observation!

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Pittsburgh: What significance do you impute from the fact that both Clinton and Obama out-polled Republican winner McCain? Is this a sign that independents will be voting heavily Democratic in 2008 throughout the U.S., or do you think it's merely a New Hampshire or Northeastern anomaly?

Anne E. Kornblut: My understanding is that the independent demographic is growing everywhere, although it's true that New Hampshire always has had a strong bloc.

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Did format make a difference with Democrats: Can you clarify the difference between a caucus and a primary? In Virginia we just vote and are done whereas (if I understand it correctly) in a caucus, you have to make a whole night out of it. So while I always will vote, with young kids I don't have time to do the whole hours-long debate with my neighbors to pick a candidate. Do you think that kind of difference has an effect?

Anne E. Kornblut: You're right about the difference between a caucus and a primary; a caucus is a much larger commitment, which is why the campaigns helped provide babysitting and transportation to try to get people out. The Clinton folks always contended that they would do much better in a primary for that reason -- her voters are lower income, and older, and thus less likely to make arrangements to trek out on a cold winter's night.

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Osawatomie, Kan.: What did you think of Obama's speech last night? Clinton's? The other candidates?

Anne E. Kornblut: I continue to be impressed by the speeches all around. Maybe I'm just really tired. But I thought Obama's was stirring; Clinton's was much more heartfelt than others of hers recently; Edwards's had his amazing energy, added to when his wife spoke; Romney was extremely gracious; Huckabee was funny and folksy and upbeat; and McCain was ebullient.

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Philadelphia: Hi. I tried this yesterday, but I'm sure you guys get enormous numbers of questions ... I'm wondering about Michigan. Has the Democratic National Committee established any mechanism to recognize delegates from there (as they're not going to recognize the primary next week)? Or will Michigan just be unrepresented at the convention? I think that would look really bad, and hope (as a Democrat) it doesn't end up costing us electoral votes in November.

Anne E. Kornblut: I am going to post this because I don't want you to think we're ignoring you; the sad truth is that I don't know the answer yet, I've been so wrapped up in Iowa and New Hampshire. Let me find out and I will publish whatever I find.

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Sun Prairie, Wis.: Ms. Kornblut: Now that Sen. Clinton has gotten back on her feet, do you expect the media to be somewhat less credulous of her relentless claims to be "experienced"? John McCain is experienced. Joe Biden was experienced. You could point to major legislation these guys have gotten passed. Hillary Clinton's experience is mostly experience being Bill Clinton's wife, and her legislative activity has been on the kind of minor stuff on which staff do most of the work. But her "35 years of fighting" spin goes mostly unchallenged. Will that continue?

Anne E. Kornblut: I actually believe we have challenged it quite a bit; what remains to be seen is whether Sen. Obama or Sen. Edwards -- or the voters -- challenge it. It's a very legitimate question. It is also what she is running on, which is why you see it reported so widely. Thank you for the very good question.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: People say things about the Clintons that they wouldn't say about other public servants in a million years. Why does the press let people get away with doing it? Shouldn't there be some respect for a former president and first lady, and for a current U.S. senator?

Anne E. Kornblut: LOL -- we are not the speech police, I'm sorry to say. But you're right, people do say an awful lot of things about the Clintons. We try not to be the messengers for the rudest parts, but there are some things that are a part of American history (Monica Lewinsky, etc.) that are simply part of the record, as distasteful as they are to think about.

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Greenwood, Mo.: Did Obama just try to coast and Clinton put up a fight? Because that is what I'm thinking here in Missouri. I like both but it seems for him to talk about Kennedy's "sending a man to the moon" and MLK on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial and equating those to the issues of today was over the top.

Anne E. Kornblut: There may be something to this. Clinton absolutely put up a huge fight, and Obama tried to stay above the fray, which did not pull him through. It will be interesting to see how both of them pivot now.

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What Massachusetts effect?: Massachusetts politicians Dukakis and Kerry did well in past New Hampshire primaries, where presumably they were well-known, so why didn't Romney yesterday?

Anne E. Kornblut: That's a cringe-worthy question for them today. Some have suggested that New Hampshire just didn't like him -- he's not their type, and McCain is. But I'm not entirely sure yet.

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Boston: Any word on the Culinary Workers endorsement in Nevada? Are they sticking with Obama?

Anne E. Kornblut: Last I heard they were, but not sure. Check our politics page today -- we have someone covering that.

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Washington: My guy Richardson did seem a little lame in the last few outings. Did he even give a speech last night? Did the TV cover it? I sure wish Biden had stayed in!

Anne E. Kornblut: And another opinion...

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Mike Gravel juggernaut: Last night I was wondering if he might throw his support behind Obama, on the condition that Obama give everyone who voted for Gravel a foot massage ... just a thought.

Anne E. Kornblut: And another...

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Anne E. Kornblut: Sadly, I have to jump off now. But thanks to all of you for such thoughtful questions, and see you again soon. Stay tuned!

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