Post Politics Hour

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Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post congressional reporter Jonathan Weisman was online Friday, Jan. 25 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Jonathan Weisman: Good morning, world. The cold sun is shining. The South Carolina Democratic Primary is tomorrow, and the check's in the mail (well, not really, but almost).

Lots of questions in the queue, I'm sure mainly about the macroeconomic affect of small business expensing. Let's take a look.

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Boston: Can we send down Coach Belichick to run the parliamentary procedures for the surveillance bill instead of Reid and Pelosi? I don't think Bill would have messed up how the bills were presented last summer (leaving only the White House bill to be voted on late in the session leading to this mess), led with the Intelligence Committee bill that Reid personally was opposed to or been blindsided by Republican cloture vote motions. Then again, Bill does like his spying. Seriously, are Reid and Pelosi this bad procedurally, or are they doing some kabuki dance pretending to oppose telecom immunity? Would the Democrats trade immunity for some form of FISA court oversight, and will the White House have to compromise at all? Go Pats!

Jonathan Weisman: Yes, Boston, but outside the lovely world of New England, who really likes Bill Belichick?

It is a bit of a mess, but the handwriting was always on the wall. The Democrats just don't have the votes to get rid of retroactive immunity and really shut down warrantless surveillance.

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Philadelphia: Hi, one question about this tax rebate: In its current form (barring any changes in the Senate) is it free money, or is it a refund advance like in 2001? Thanks so much for clearing this up!

Jonathan Weisman: It is ostensibly a tax cut. That is, part of the 10 percent tax bracket for 2007 is being put to zero. This of course is pure artifice, because everyone who pays income taxes pays the 10 percent bracket, but couples earning more than $150,000 don't get a tax bracket.

So really, it's free money -- borrowed no less.

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UB40 Wolfowitz Letters: Which is the most surprising: Ali Campbell quitting after 30 years as lead singer for UB40 ("Red, Red Wine"), Paul Wolfowitz getting an administration job looking for WMD, or the fact that the CIA is allowed to use national security letters to secretly demand data on people in the U.S. without a warrant or any court review? You are probably too young to appreciate lyrics like "the line broke, the monkey get choke..."

Jonathan Weisman: You are so wrong about my age, UB. In fact, my twin sister came back from studying French in Provence when she was 17 with the first UB40 album (record album), long before "Red, Red Wine" broke the charts on this side of the pond.

That said, how could someone quit a band that hasn't existed in decades?

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Washington: The talk about Bloomberg has waned a bit lately. Doesn't the acrimony in the Democratic race -- especially if Clinton wins the nomination -- make a Bloomberg run more likely?

Jonathan Weisman: Stop it already. Bloomberg is not running. I never have believed he would run and I still don't. The acrimony in the Democratic race will be ancient history by the time the daffodils bloom, and the mayor doesn't want to spend all of his money.

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Washington: Will the $75,000 line for receiving the full rebate be based solely on 2007 income, or will projected 2008 income also be taken into consideration?

Jonathan Weisman: Purely on 2007. The income threshold will be determined by the tax returns most of us haven't even thought about filing yet. That's why I'm skeptical that the first checks will be cut in May. That's just a few weeks after most of us will file.

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Sacramento, Calif.: Super Tuesday is not far away. I am a registered Republican wondering where my candidates are! Their lack of presence in the news here shows their lack of interest in my vote. What gives? I feel like I am representing the "invisible" party.

Jonathan Weisman: Interesting, Sacramento. I didn't know they have been so invisible in the Golden State. I would imagine that after Florida, they will come flooding in. The problem is likely to be money. McCain is starting to rake it in, but he was flat broke not long ago. Huckabee is tapped out. And Giuliani suddenly isn't looking so strong.

I hope you like Mitt Romney ads.

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The GOP primary: Which candidate distrusted and disliked by the base will win, do you think? Romney and his money, or McCain and his starry-eyed adoration by the political media (your illustrious and flawlessly objective self excepted, of course)?

Jonathan Weisman: Ah, I can see you've been reading the blogs. The distrusted vs. the disliked has reached the zeitgeist.

As for my answer, hmm, let me gore this squirrel, spill out his entrails and read. Okay, McCain ... no, Romney ... no, McCain.

Oh, I don't know.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning! Harry Reid has, to my knowledge, made the Republicans only pull an actual filibuster one time -- and that was only, if I recall correctly, 24 hours. The Democratic base understands that you can't get anything through the Senate without 60 votes. What many elements of the base hate about Reid is that he doesn't use his powers to drive home the notion that Republicans are being obstructionist. They think he's failing to do enough to set the Democrats up for further gains in 2008. How fair is that criticism? How many of the other 50 Democratic senators would agree with that criticism?

Jonathan Weisman: I think it's a fair criticism, frankly. He repeatedly has threatened weekend sessions, threatened to hold the Senate through recesses, etc., but he just doesn't carry through.

But never fear, he has promised that Republicans blocking amendments on the FISA bill will have to stay and talk and talk next week. Let's see if he carries it through. Of course, if enough Democrats join Republicans on Monday to get the 60 votes to break off debate on the Intelligence committee version of the FISA bill, the threat will be for naught. The Democrats themselves will have done the dirty deed.

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Reading, Pa.: Jon: I heard an interesting thought from a Florida friend -- he believes Rudy may be considering a run for governor of Florida when his presidential bid collapses in a few days. Just thought to pass it along.

Jonathan Weisman: That's a good one. If Rudy walks away from the primaries, it will follow a pattern set when he walked away from the Senate campaign in 2000. Why would he try again, especially in a state that is not his own?

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Troy, N.Y.: I saw a TurboTax commercial and discovered that for most Americans, filing "taxes" is a fun way to get all sorts of free money from our government. Given that most Americans seem to have at least avoided income taxes, how far are we from avoiding death too? Joking aside, would it make more sense to repeal the corporate income tax so all individuals actually pay income taxes, as opposed to stealth corporate taxes? Is this possible?

Jonathan Weisman: You are not the first to suggest that we may as well repeal the corporate income tax, as corporations have been very adept in avoiding the tax anyway -- and because when they don't, they merely collect it from their customers.

But one thing you should know: The huge surge in tax revenue in the past few years has come in large part on the corporate side. Just when we thought corporations had learned how to avoid taxation altogether, they surprised us and started paying through the nose.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: How badly is Hillary going to get creamed in South Carolina tomorrow? What effect is it likely to have on the race?

Jonathan Weisman: Darned, do I have to check my entrails again? One thing I can say for certain: If Clinton loses, the Clinton camp will dismiss its significance because the racial balance in the Democratic primary in South Carolina is not reflective of the rest of the country.

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Midland, Mich.: Have you seen the Fox News photo of the Clintons with Rezko? How do you think this will play out?

washingtonpost.com: Photo Surfaces Showing Sen. Clinton Posing With Chicago Landlord Rezko (Fox News, Jan. 25)

Jonathan Weisman: I have seen it, and I bet it means absolutely nothing. As a White House reporter from the '90s, I have a picture of myself with Hillary Clinton too. Do you think she remembers that? Now, if you show me 30 pictures of Rezko with Hillary, I'd say you're onto something.

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Seattle: Do you know if the $75,000 and $150,000 cutoffs for the rebates are gross income or net taxable income? Thanks for the chats.

Jonathan Weisman: Adjusted gross income -- and remember, it phases out from there, so if you have two kids, you probably would get a check even if you have an AGI up to $185,000.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: What's likely to happen in the Senate and House races in November? Where does it leave the Democrats? What are the latest predictions in the presidential race?

washingtonpost.com: The Fix's Friday Line: So Much For Our 50-Days Out Predictions (washingtonpost.com, Jan. 25)

Jonathan Weisman: My desk is getting very bloody with all these entrails, and my co-workers are beginning to get worried. I don't make predictions, but I will tell you that on the House side there was another Republican retirement from a swing district just yesterday, Jim Walsh from Syracuse, N.Y. That brings House GOP retirements to 21, many of them in tough districts. The Democrats are looking good. The Senate dynamics are similar. Democratic candidates lead in the polls in the races for open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado and are ahead in the head-to-head with John Sununu in New Hampshire.

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Florida Republican: I'm saving my vote for the first guy who says this in a campaign spot or one of the many, many phone calls: "I'm (candidate states his name) and I'll pledge my life, my fortune and my sacred honor on whipping Hillary like a rented mule, no matter whom our GOP nominee is."

Jonathan Weisman: I think John McCain is your man. Remember in 2000, when he pledged to beat Al Gore like a drum?

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Prescott, Ariz.: I'd like to point out that Harry Reid could have simply put the Judiciary Committee's FISA bill up first instead of the Intelligence Committee's. It didn't have amnesty for telecoms written into it, and an amendment adding it would have taken a 60-vote count. That he took the opposite route suggests to most of us that Reid really wants the telecoms to get the service from Congress they paid so much for.

Jonathan Weisman: I have made that point as well. He would say that under ordinary Senate rules, bills that are sequentially referred to multiple committees come to the floor according to the committee that got it first. So regular order says the Intel bill gets first dibs. But under Senate rules, the Senate Majority Leader can flout those traditions at any time and bring any bill up that he wants. If he had wanted to bring the Judiciary bill first, he could have.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: Jon, imagine you're looking back from the future 100 years from now. Tell us how the Democrats wound up losing in 2008. Then tell us why we keep doing it.

Jonathan Weisman: I got an e-mail from a senior House Democratic aide who is so mad at the Clintons she has vowed not to vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination -- and this is a partisan Democratic operative. The Clintons are playing with fire and I'm not sure they know it.

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Fortaleza, Brazil: Every GOP candidate seems to be calling for tax cuts, and no one mentions any down sides (e.g. increased deficit, cutting of needed programs), so I assume there are none. So why the skepticism about the current tax cut/rebate? I heard one guy on CNN saying that many middle-class Americans, already in debt, will use it to pay down their debt and thus will not help the economy. He also said that business owners are not likely to use their savings/refunds/rebates/presents to buy new equipment if they do not anticipate enough new orders to justify the purchase. Such skepticism! I intend to use mine to help compensate for the lousy exchange rate as the dollar has dropped.

Jonathan Weisman: Interesting point, and all the way from Brazil. For six years, we've been hearing Republicans laud the 2001 tax cuts as the savior of the post-Sept. 11 economy. The timely tax rebates made sure the recession was shallow and short. Suddenly, lots and lots of Republicans are saying rebates don't work. What we need is lower long-term corporate income tax rates or tax simplification. It's kind of like my 8-year-old -- as soon as she gets what she wants, she wants something different.

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UB40: Um, your information that UB40 hasn't been a band for decades would probably be a big surprise to Ali Campbell and the rest of the band. They're currently on tour in Australia, New Zealand and Uganda.

Jonathan Weisman: Uganda! Good for them. I was only joking.

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Atlanta: Sir John: My question is about The Southern Strategy of Huckabee. Have you heard about this and what is it? Also, Thompson is being mentioned as a vice presidential option. What would he bring to the ticket? He failed to win any delegates or a state [ed.: actually he won eight delegates]. Or did I miss something? What is the chance of Condi Rice being picked at the convention to unify the Republicans after the guys running for president build up so much anger and grudges that the party is divided?

Jonathan Weisman: As Roseanne Roseannadanna would say, hey, Atlanta, you have a lot of questions. Huckabee's Southern strategy is to be a Southerner wherever life is cheap and he has enough money to spend. I can't imagine what Thompson would bring to the ticket, except that he's a really good friend of McCain's, but that's not enough. And finally, fugedabout Condi. She's going to be NFL Commissioner.

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Dallas: I'll second the playing with fire crack. I would vote for a turnip with a (D) behind its name, but if Hillary rises by bashing Obama ... I'm staying home with my turnips. To work on my metaphors.

Jonathan Weisman: Now Dallas, if you move to a swing state, the Clintons should get nervous.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: What are they so angry at Hillary about? How do we know this isn't just a "dirty trick?" It sure sounds that way to me...

Jonathan Weisman: Ah Palo Alto, that's the counterargument. Whomever the Democrat is going to be will get this and much, much worse from the Republicans. The Democratic Party needs someone who understands that the business of politics is rough, and that it's about winning. The Clintons understand the score.

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Pittsburgh: We'll just be putting our tax rebate into savings, which I know will make The Post's Michelle Singletary so proud. But will it help "the economy" that we're not spendthrifts?

Jonathan Weisman: No, go out and spend it, as soon as possible. And please, only buy things made in America. I'd suggest Dallas's turnips.

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...to help compensate for the lousy exchange rate as the dollar has dropped: What can the U.S. government do to strengthen the dollar compared to foreign currencies (not only the real, but also the pound, euro, etc.)? And would it be in America's best interests now?

Jonathan Weisman: Stop blowing money. The dollar would strengthen as the nation's fiscal situation improved if individuals started saving and investing and, absent that, if the government would do the saving for us. By being fiscally sound, the nation would make its money into a reliable investment vehicle again.

But that would be bad for the economy, so go ahead and spend.

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Princeton, N.J.: David Leonhardt is a hot-shot economic reporter for the New York Times (sells goat cheese on the side). He interviewed Sen. Clinton a few days ago. In the article she shows much more economic knowledge than any of the other candidates on either side. My brother says this don't mean excrement. Is he right?

Jonathan Weisman: Of course it means something. It means she knows a lot. What it doesn't mean is that said knowledge will help her get elected. David is a good reporter who I'm sure asked some pretty tough questions. If she came off looking prepared, good for her. Not everyone would.

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Playing with Fire: Is this the same Clinton team/mindset that moved into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and decided that they didn't need Pat Moynihan or anyone else?

Jonathan Weisman: That is an excellent point. Hillary Clinton says she learned her lesson from the health care debacle that she needs to be able to play nicely with others. Umm, I guess that only goes for some of the time.

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Boulder, Colo.: So it takes an opinion columnist (Dionne) to discover that Bill had praised Reagan during the 1992 election. Why can't the regular press discover these obvious inconsistencies on their own?

washingtonpost.com: The Ideas Bill Forgot (Post, Jan. 25)

Jonathan Weisman: We have written the same thing, in the paper, on The Trail and in The Fact-Checker.

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Honolulu: Do you think Romney make a good point that the success in Iraq is based on the efforts by Gen. Petraeus and President Bush rather than Gen. Hillary? Isn't the day of withdrawal an issue which united a no on the Republican side and a yes on the Democratic side, because it keeps coming up in the debates? Isn't that part of the foreign policy discussion?

Jonathan Weisman: I'm not following you. Yes, Iraq tends to unite the candidates, but it doesn't unite the electorate. The vast majority of Democrats are ready to leave Iraq, but Republicans are divided, and that's a real problem for the GOP candidates.

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Arlington, Va.: Saving money or paying off debt still helps the economy. One of the biggest issues with the economy right now it the liquidity in the credit markets -- i.e. banks have to raise capital to offset possible bad loans and also provide new loans. By paying off debt or saving, it minutely helps banks raise the capital they need to lend money to corporations, consumers, etc. I won't argue the long-term issues.

Jonathan Weisman: I agree that the problem is capital but it's not volume of money. It's liquidity. The banks don't want to lend. You can send them more money, but that won't make them any more eager to hand it out.

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Colorado: McCain/Thompson? Come on. Yeah, I'm a partisan Democrat, but I can't believe even McCain is so far out of it he wants to campaign as the two old men from "The Muppets".

Jonathan Weisman: But that would be funny, wouldn't it? Gosh, we're all dating ourselves. First UB40, not the Muppets. What's next Edgar Bergen and Charlie?

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Los Angeles: Given that the head of the Congressional Budget Office said earlier this week that the the quickest way to jump-start the economy with all this "free money" was to give it to people receiving food stamps and other benefits, why has this option not been included in the Pelosi/Bush/Reid agreement? Wouldn't this have been an easy way to begin jump-starting the economy?

Jonathan Weisman: Republicans opposed any spending in the bill. Democrats wanted checks to go out to workers not earning enough to pay income taxes. They struck a deal.

But wait for the Senate. A lot of senators want to put unemployment and food stamp extensions back.

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San Diego: Sorry, sir, McCain is not being reported for spending much of his own millions. so he hardly gets the "I pledge" vote. During the debate last night, didn't it seem to you as though Mitt Romney by far has pledged his life and money to defeat Hillary? He has spent more than $20 million of his own money, and I wonder what you think of his comment that that is nothing compared to the millions by Corzine for his governor race, Bloomberg for mayor race, or Steve Forbes in his presidential race?

Jonathan Weisman: Mitt's fortunes are being spent for Mitt, not for Hillary's defeat.

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Lake Forest, Calif.: Good morning. ... Regarding the tax rebate, do you know where the elderly, who only have Social Security, stand as to receiving a check? Thank you for your time.

Jonathan Weisman: Poor senior retirees really do not come off well. If you do not earn at least $3,000 from work, and your Social Security and retirement money isn't enough to give you an income tax liability, you get nothing. I'm surprised this has not enraged the AARP.

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Anonymous: You're supposed to use a goat, not a squirrel, you noodnik!

Jonathan Weisman: No wonder it's not working! I was listening to Mike Huckabee.

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Clinton -- Rezko Photos: This reminds me of a great "Saturday Night Live" Weekend Update skit from the late '70s. It turns out that at some point President Carter had a photo taken with serial killer John Wayne Gacy. A few days later, a photo of Carter with another notorious criminal (can't remember who) also turned up. Weekend Update then played "recently discovered photos" of Carter with Charles Manson, Ted Bundy, Sirhan Sirhan, etc. Point being -- politicians have a chance of getting their pic taken with darn near anybody

Jonathan Weisman: Published without comment.

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Cleveland: Kucinich has dropped out. Who do you think gets most of his 1 percent of the vote?

Jonathan Weisman: Ron Paul.

OK folks, I'm already 5 minutes over my allotted time. Still lots of questions, so I apologize for not getting to them all. So long!

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