Live Analysis: Super Tuesday Returns

Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, Feb. 5 at 8 p.m. ET to break down the returns from the Super Tuesday primaries as they're announced and examine what they mean for the candidates in the 2008 presidential primaries.

He'll be joined at points during the evening by Ruth Marcus, Washington Post columnist; Richard Viguerie, author of "Conservatives Betrayed"; and David Karol, professor of political science at University of California-Berkeley.

The transcript follows.

Special Note: Because of the anticipated length of the discussion, responses will be posted in reverse order, with the most recent answers at the top.

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washingtonpost.com: Our thanks to Bob Kaiser, Ruth Marcus, Richard Viguerie and David Karol, as well as all of the readers who submitted questions. Hope to see you again for tomorrow at 11 a.m. for Post Politics Hour with Michael Shear, who has been following the Republicans on the campaign trail. Have a good night.

Posted 0:47 a.m., 2.6.2008

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David Karol: This has been an unique experience and I hope some of my answers were informative. Good night and best wishes to everyone from coast to coast!

Posted 0:43 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Washington: Not to look ahead, but hey, this is politics. What can we expect on the Democratic side this weekend? Washington is fairly progressive, similar to Minnesota, so I'd assume Obama plays well. Do we have a clue what the demographics are going to look for Democrats in Louisiana post-Katrina?

David Karol: Again, a key factor here is that Washington is a caucus state. That works in favor of Sen. Obama. Also, even post-Katrina there are many African Americans in Louisiana, and not all in the New Orleans area either, so he has a base of support there as well. The Clinton campaign long has known that the states following Super Tuesday are not the easiest ones for her, so a strong showing tonight was imperative.

Posted 0:38 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Upper Marlboro, Md.: What about Edwards' 26 delegates? What happens to them at the convention?

David Karol: They are free agents. If Edwards endorses someone, that might affect their choice, but he doesn't own them.

Posted 0:33 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Anonymous: When do Obama and Romney start closing the gap in California?

David Karol: It looks like they both are losing here.

Posted 0:30 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Ex-Berkeleyite: So is Hillary acceptable to a true blue (or true blue and gold) Berkeley-ite, or does it have to be Obama? Is God still alive and signing books at Moe's or Cody's?

David Karol: Hillary does have her supporters here, but alas Cody's is no longer on Telegraph. They still have a store on Fourth Street -- and no, the Berkeley Chamber of Commerce is not sponsoring this chat!

Posted 0:27 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Palo Alto, Calif.: How does support for Obama vs. Clinton divide between north side and south side of campus? Is "top-dog" still selling bratwurst and libertarian philosophy? How does Berkeley divide between Obama and Hillary?

David Karol: Some things never change. Top Dog has kept the faith! Let's just say Ron Paul would feel right at home there. I don't know about a North/South split on campus. There might be some gap in the percentages, but in general, Obama is almost an ideal candidate for Berkeley.

Posted 0:19 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Re: Missouri: The Missouri race is neck-and-neck at this point. Obama just captured the lead with 97 percent reporting. Does it matter who wins when it's this close a race? Both of them gets a number of delegates, right?

David Karol: Yes, the delegate count will not change much, if at all, whether Obama gets 48 percent or 52 percent in Missouri, but there is a psychological effect of winning and having the state colored in on the map in a way that makes you look stronger. Candidates know this and, whatever they say, they want to win states as well as delegates.

Posted 0:15 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Vienna, Va.: So what happens to the Edwards votes in California now that he's no longer on the ballot? Do they kinda just ... mean nothing? A no-starter spoiler?

David Karol: Unfortunately, yes. I wouldn't say that they are "spoiling" anything, but a lot of the people who voted early for Edwards may be wishing they had waited.

Posted 0:13 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Hong Kong: For these early results in California, are these more likely just the absentee ballots (especially seeing the 10 percent for Edwards)? Or are these just faster districts?

David Karol: A lot of them are absentee votes.

Posted 0:09 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Democrats in the general: Do you think that the split (more or less even) among voters for Obama and Clinton bodes ill for either (but more for her) when one of them eventually wins the nomination? Do you think that a split party will make it more difficult for them to win in November?

David Karol: I actually don't think this is a problem for Democrats. Clinton and Obama clearly have passionate supporters and have greatest appeal to particular sectors of the party, but in the end both are broadly acceptable to Democrats. A recent Pew Survey showed about 80 percent of Democrats approved of Obama and a similar number liked Clinton.

By contrast, all of the remaining GOP candidates are unpopular with important sectors of their party and this is a problem for the Republicans looking forward to the fall campaign.

Posted 0:07 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Reston, Va.: CNN is showing that Obama has four delegates and Clinton has two delegates in Missouri even though Clinton is leading by 2 percent at this time. Can you explain how this?

washingtonpost.com: CNN is including superdelegates in its state-by-state counts, so for instance one of those Obama delegates is Sen. Claire McCaskill. See the fine print on this page.

Posted 0:05 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Washington: Do you think George Allen is kicking himself wherever he is tonight?

David Karol: This is the great forgotten story. Had George Allen not self-destructed in 2006 the GOP establishment might have had a candidate they could rally around. Fred Thompson was supposed to be that candidate, but he also underwhelmed.

Posted 0:02 a.m., 2.6.2008

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Denver: Are there any indicators in the primary elections and caucus results that can tell us how a candidate will do in the general election?

David Karol: Some would argue that appeal to independent voters taking part in primaries and caucuses, which we can gauge from exit polls, is a good indicator. By this standard the conventional wisdom is correct; Obama and McCain are the best choices for their parties. I don't think that's the whole story however. Senator Obama has never really faced serious Republican attacks and it is not clear how well his post-partisan uniter image would hold up in the face of them.

Posted 11:58 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Re: Missouri: The Missouri primary has eight presidential candidates (all the ones we long forgot about) and "undecided" and "others." Why do they allow this? I mean, what is the point of voting for someone who long ago dropped out of the race? If Kucinich got 720 votes, would he get any delegates?

David Karol:720 votes will not get Kucinich any delegates. The rules require candidates to get 15% of the vote in order to earn delegates. The candidates names are on the ballots, because they are printed in advance and the campaign changes so quickly. Many people have voted by mail for candidates who are no longer running. This is a problem. States should think about how early they want to send out these ballots.

Posted 11:54 p.m., 2.5.2008

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For David Karol: There is a kind of "conventional wisdom" in the press that the Republican voters in California are more like the Republicans in the Northeast -- social moderates, fiscal conservatives. Rudy Giuliani was thought to be able to do well in California. When I lived in California, however, the Republicans -- particularly the primary voters -- were social conservatives. Has this changed?

David Karol: It's not Utah, but the Republican primary voters in California are pretty conservative, and have nominated social conservatives in recent years. These candidates have not done well in statewide general elections out here. A prominent example is Bill Simon, the last GOP candidate for Governor before Schwarzenegger. He was much too conservative for the state and lost at a time when Gray Davis, the Democratic incumbent, was quite unpopular. Also, the GOP rules here do not permit independents to vote in the presidential primary, which works to the disadvantage of Senator McCain.

Posted 11:52 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Robert G. Kaiser: That's it for me tonight. David Karol is on deck out in California and will answer some more questions, so send them in. He is a proper California expert, even!

My parting thought: This is a year to savor, to remember and to tell grandchildren about. Thanks to all for tuning in, commenting and sending good questions. Obama, McCain, Clinton, Romney and Huckabee are all proud of their supporters, but I'll take the readers of washingtonpost.com any day! You are terrific.

Posted 11:50 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Washington: My liberal friends all support Obama; my politico friends support Clinton. I would think, therefore, that California -- like Minnesota -- would support Obama. Why is that not the prevailing assumption?

David Karol: There is a big difference: Minnesota has a caucus, California has a primary. Candidates with passionate followings often do well in caucuses, because they play a larger role due to the lower turnout. Ron Paul has had his better showings in caucuses. Caucuses also reward organization, so Mitt Romney, who has been able to fund organizations where others could not, also is doing well in some Midwestern caucuses tonight.

Posted 11:49 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Why are Californians voting for Edwards at the rate we're seeing?

David Karol: Many Californians voted for Edwards by mail before he dropped out.

Posted 11:44 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Boulder, Colo.: I just returned from Democratic caucus in Boulder, Colorado. The location was utterly swamped, 2,000 people when 200 were expected! My precinct went 102 for Obama to 36 for Clinton. Tons of excitement and huge numbers on the Obama side. Unbelievable turnout -- and it was very exciting to be part of such a historic moment.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you very much for this. Fascinating. Is Colorado becoming a Democratic state? Could be...

Posted 11:43 p.m., 2.5.2008

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California pre-primary polls: The latest Reuters-C-SPAN-Zogby have Obama polling at 49 percent and Clinton at 36 percent. The latest SurveyUSA has Clinton polling at 53 percent and Obama at 41 percent. Both are within a day of each other. Both have a 3.3 percent margin of error. Obviously one of these polls (if not both) is wrong -- way outside the margin of error. When these pollsters see results like this, shouldn't they realize that their polls (both) are probably vastly undersampled, and that they need to redo their poll? Finally, just a funny aside: I was listening to the BBC this morning and one of the hosts kept pronouncing Obama like the "bama" in Alabama.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. You are absolutely right, there was at least one, and I think now probably two bad polls in California this week. But the Field Poll a few days ago, calling it very close, seems to have been better. It is a more reputable poll than either of these. All polls are NOT alike.

Posted 11:42 p.m., 2.5.2008

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So Exciting: Wow! I am enjoying this so much. I am in my 30s, do not remember Nixon resigning (I was 2 months old), missed the turbulent '60s, and a black man and woman were on the Supreme Court from the time I understood what the Supreme Court was, so this is huge to me. Living, voting and seeing history being made is unbelievable. Watching a woman and man of color vie for a major party nomination is thrilling. So where does this rank for all of you? Is it exciting, does it feel historic?

Robert G. Kaiser: It is very historic, though some hard-bitten old reporters are loathe to admit it. It is the most exciting presidential campaign in a very long time.

Posted 11:41 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Scituate, Mass.: I have heard quite a bit about how Huckabee "needs to raise some money" in order to survive -- since New Hampshire, I believe. However, it seems to me -- based on what I've seen so far tonight -- that he is managing to pull a significant number of votes without resorting to the buy-a-vote strategy. It seems he may even beat Romney in terms of the state and the delegate count, an outcome that the punditry and journalists, again, seemed to ignore. (I am not a Huck fan, I voted for Obama.) Going forward, say as far as the GOP convention, will Huckabee have any clout as far as crowning the GOP candidate for president is concerned?

Robert G. Kaiser: Fair point. But money is important in our politics, even if, like Huckabee in the last month, you can do better without it than some people think.

Posted 11:40 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Washington: If the California exit polls are to be believed, Latinos went heavily for Clinton again. Why is it Latinos are so hesitant to vote for Obama?

Robert G. Kaiser: You sound like you think voting for Obama is the natural thing to do, but that for mysterious reasons Latinos are resisting it. Silly idea.

In fact young Latinos are voting for Obama; older ones and particularly women are not. People are different.

Posted 11:39 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Ashland, Mo.: Why are political reporters and others so intent on declaring that someone has momentum? Isn't it possible that no one has it -- that each race is its own dynamic, and not particularly related to what has happened before? What is wrong with reporting things that way?

Robert G. Kaiser: Nothing. Indeed, I think you've described the situation in both parties tonight. McCain hoped for momentum that, because of Huckabee's strong showing in the South, he was denied. Obama and Clinton are really tight, and neither shows a big advantage. But Obama has moved up fast and far in the last month, an important fact. I think we're looking for momentum to be able to say someone is clearly ahead, a real favorite. We're not there yet.

Posted 11:38 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Berkeley: What is the sentiment on campus at Berkeley? Who are students, professors and locals supporting?

David Karol: In Berkeley, Obama is the favorite. This is probably true of campuses and college towns everywhere.

Posted 11:36 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Seattle: How are delegates awarded for the Democrats in California? How close does Obama have to be to Clinton's total for his campaign to consider it a win?

David Karol: Delegates in California are allocated proportionally. In fact, this is true of all states. Democratic rules ban winner-take-all primaries and require proportionality.

Posted 11:33 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Georgia: Georgia voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 by 1 percent.

Robert G. Kaiser: Oooh, bad mistake by me. Thank you!

Posted 11:33 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Rockville, Md.: With all the talk of race and gender in this election, are we actually seeing that the fault lines are based more on class? That's the issue we seem less likely to talk about.

Robert G. Kaiser: I've just been looking at the 9:30 p.m. version of the exit poll, which does show that Obama does better than Hillary among college graduates, and among people with earnings greater than $50,000 -- but not a great deal better. I don't think we really have fault lines in the Democratic Party now. We have groups more inclined to one candidate or another, but they aren't overwhelming.

Posted 11:33 p.m., 2.5.2008

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washingtonpost.com: And we are now joined by University of California-Berkeley professor David Karol. Send in your questions about the Golden State's primaries now.

Posted 11:31 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Carmel, Ind.: Further to my previous post, Romney is toast. Huckabee now has the entire anti-McCain crowd to play to.

Robert G. Kaiser: Glad we've cleared that up.

Posted 11:28 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Redwood City, Calif.: "Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Remember, polls show that a majority of Americans do not believe in evolution." Please please tell me this was a typo?

Robert G. Kaiser: Not at all. I'd go down the hall and bother Jon Cohen, our polling director, to get the numbers, but he is too busy on tonight's exit polls and such. But this finding is repeated again and again; most Americans do not believe in evolution.

Posted 11:28 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Viking, Minn.: Minnesota endorsed their home sons, Mondale and Humphrey. They voted against Reagan -- both times. In fact, in most landslide victories and losses the state has voted the opposite of the national results. Does this suggest something about Obama's brilliant (stunning?) defeat of Clinton here?

Robert G. Kaiser: Not much

Posted 11:27 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Helena, Mont.: John McCain opted for public financing, he even borrowed against the money he was to receive, but now he wants to "opt out." Is this a possibility? Who decides?

washingtonpost.com: From this story: "McCain's aides were worried enough to flirt with the idea of accepting federal funds, and they reorganized their financial accounting to prepare for it. But the aides say the campaign is now unlikely to do that, because it would be forced to respect the spending caps that accompany such funds."

Robert G. Kaiser: Chris Hopkins has provided your answer here.

Posted 11:26 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Clinton and African American voters: I have noticed a lot of questions saying "how can McCain win without winning the South?" Can't a similar question be asked of Clinton and African American voters, who are stalwarts of the Democratic Party?

Robert G. Kaiser: Well sure, but would blacks not vote for Hillary if she were the candidate?

Posted 11:25 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Washington: Robert Kaiser: Iron Chatter. You should check if this is some sort of Washington Post record.

Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, on Sept. 11 we did this for about 14 hours I think. It's just sitting and typing, after all. Not too strenuous.

Posted 11:25 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Re: Missouri: I am sitting tight to see who will win in Missouri, but the results are ever so slow coming out of there. I think that for the next primary I am going to find a good political junkie place to hang out at rather than being at home. Someone asked for places to hang out at to watch the results coming out on the political chat this morning, and there was no answer.

Robert G. Kaiser: I don't know of such a place either. Organize your own party!

Posted 11:24 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Berea, Ohio: Does Romney abandon his campaign tomorrow evening?

Robert G. Kaiser: Absolutely not, as he made clear in his speech tonight.

Posted 11:24 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Warwick, N.Y.: Obama's main selling point, it seems to me, is that he competes in places where Clinton will lose. Is this borne out tonight? Did he receive more votes in some of these red states that he won than were cast for the GOP candidates, such as Georgia, or North Dakota? If he got enough votes to make a case that he'll flip these states into the blue column in November, he's closed the case, in my opinion. If not, then the emphasis will be on the fact that he lost the big blue states. (Well, we'll wait for Missouri and California first.)

Robert G. Kaiser: Frankly I think you're off on the wrong tack here. These primaries don't really speak to the question of November electability. A Democrat carrying Georgia or North Dakota is a real long-shot. Georgia is slightly more plausible in my view, but it hasn't happened since native-son Jimmy Carter did it in 1976 -- quite a while ago! In fact tonight's results seem to confirm evidence from the earlier primaries that in general, Democrats are fired up and ready to go this year, while Republicans are not.

Posted 11:23 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Potomac Primaries: I was watching TV Friday and saw an Obama ad about five or six times within 60 to 90 minutes. I truly wondered how people in Iowa, New Hampshire put up with all the ads they get. I haven't seen any Clinton ads yet. I ended up wondering what's the point of blanketing us with these ads. Do they really work? Do ads at that level of frequency have any added benefit?

Robert G. Kaiser: Oh yes, there is a great deal of utterly persuasive evidence that TV commercials influence the outcome of elections, which is why TV ads are still the biggest single expense in any campaign -- usually at least 50 percent of the total.

Posted 11:18 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Manchester, N.Y.: I've voted for Hillary Clinton a few times, including today, and the minute any publication stops being hard on her will be the beginning of the end. I read The Washington Post and think they are just fine. Obama is a classic underdog story, and he's doing a fantastic job keeping it in the headlines. Hillary is a big girl, she can handle it. Democrats simply should be happy to have two fantastic choices. Am I the only Democrat in America who could be happy with either as president?

Robert G. Kaiser: You certainly are not. Our reporters have found many such Democrats. Indeed, since a year ago, Democrats in polls regularly have expressed much more satisfaction with and enthusiasm about their field of candidates than have Republicans.

Posted 11:17 p.m., 2.5.2008

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washingtonpost.com: We should be joined in about 15 minutes by David Karol, an assistant professor of political science at the University of California-Berkeley. He'll talk about the scene and exit polling on the West Coast and also discuss the situation nationwide.

Posted 11:16 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Berkeley, Calif.: Is Huckabee doing well enough tonight to make this a real three-person race for the GOP (if it wasn't before)?

Robert G. Kaiser: Very possible. He needs, however, to raise some money.

Posted 11:14 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Bridgewater, Mass.: About the comment on whites not being willing to vote for African Americans in Massachusetts: In the governor's race, Patrick was way ahead in the polls, and his vote total reflected the polls almost perfectly. His election was a statewide high. There have been repeated sightings reported of Bill Clinton walking on water in Massachusetts for a decade -- it's surprising an opponent of a Clinton got any votes. Obama will do fine here in November.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. It's intriguing how many people want to make racial comments here. I confess I am ignoring some of them.

Posted 11:12 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Jerusalem: It seems so far that McCain was unable to win the conservative voters and states like Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas, which went to Huckabee. Can he be the legitimate Republican nominee without winning any of the Southern states? Were there any Republican presidential nominees who faired as badly among the conservative base of the GOP?

Robert G. Kaiser: You're right, McCain comes out of tonight with questions hovering over his candidacy that weren't hovering this morning. I think those results point up the discomfort of many in the Republican base with his candidacy. It is quite stunning how well Huckabee has done today.

Posted 11:11 p.m., 2.5.2008

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San Luis Obispo, Calif.: I'm a Democrat and my husband is a Republican. We usually receive a lot of campaign literature delivered to our front door. But no one from any Democratic or Republican campaign canvassed our neighborhood before the California primary today. I haven't seen many bumper stickers or campaign signs here on California's central coast, except for Ron Paul. California rarely has a chance to help decide whom the nominees will be, so this really surprised me. I was an Edwards supporter and had a hard time deciding who to vote for, or I would have volunteered to do it myself. Given all the excitement about the closeness of the races, somehow we've missed that in my California county.

Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting. I suspect your experience reflects the amount of time, energy and money devoted to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Posted 11:06 p.m., 2.5.2008

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Reston, Va.: Robert, you will have to believe when people complain about the perceived favoritism towards Obama in