Election 2008: Previewing the Washington State Primaries

Political editor and campaign trail blogger Brad Shannon of The Olympian was online Friday, Feb. 8 at 1 p.m. ET to take your questions on GOP primary and Democratic caucuses in Washington state Saturday, the Rossi-Gregoire gubernatorial rematch, and how things look in the state for November.

The transcript follows.

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Brad Shannon: Hi, I'm Brad Shannon, politics editor for The Olympian in Washington's state capital city. The Legislature's in full tilt this week, but the Saturday caucuses pretty well have wiped that news off the papers' front pages. So we're watching with interest.

This morning, Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire announced finally that she is with Obama.

I look forward to your questions.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: Is there any remaining bitterness among voters about the multiple recounts for governor, and if so, which side appears to be strengthen by this lingering fallout?

Brad Shannon: Sure, there are those who remain bitter. Republican Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes, went to court claiming vote fraud and ended up losing by 133 votes once a judge looked at the evidence. He has announced for a rematch and likes to talk on the stump about winning the first two vote counts, but it's also clear he's trying not to live in the past.

Most voters moved on a long time ago, although Rossi has quite a reservoir of sympathy and support as a result of the close run. Certainly Gregoire was hurt by the closeness of the race and the GOP's artful efforts to call the validity of the vote into question, but she's acted boldly as governor to break impasses on transportation funding, medical malpractice and civil rights issues -- and she really has consolidated her base.

Polling has showed her climbing steadily through three years, while Rossi's numbers have fallen. Some polls show them almost even. Going with Obama today certainly aligns the governor with the younger Democrats who are newer to the political process.

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Tacoma, Wash.: Do you notice that Obama is speaking at Key Arena while Hillary is speaking at a Division III school's fieldhouse (full disclosure, I'm a graduate of that school!) today? Does that strike you as interesting at all? Or perhaps significant as to who will draw the bigger reception? Also, my predictions -- Obama gets the Democrats on Saturday, while the Huckster crushes east of the mountains and wins the Republican primary.

Brad Shannon: They both are going to draw big crowds wherever they go. Clinton had more than 5,000 to a waterfront Seattle venue last night that turned people away at the door. Some walked a mile to get in. We'll have to see if there is any room today for Obama's 11 a.m. PT event in Key Arena.

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San Francisco: Hi there, Brad -- thanks for chatting today! Are there any unique-to-Washington rules we should be on the lookout for during tomorrow's caucuses in your state? Have there been any polls lately?

Brad Shannon: The caucuses are peculiar -- or confusing at the least. Each party does them differently here.

The Republicans are awarding their 37 voter-chosen delegates in two steps: They are apportioning roughly half with tomorrow's caucuses, and the other half will be decided via the state's Feb. 19 primary.

The Democrats are going 100 percent with the caucuses, but it's a complicated process -- with one party document covering something like 90 pages with the various ins and outs of the process.

Adding to the confusion, the Republican secretary of state, Sam Reed, has been pushing the primary very hard. He long has thought caucuses are too insider-ish. But we're a vote-by-mail state, so ballots started hitting mailboxes this week, ahead of the caucuses. And we're hearing from some Democrats that this is confusing to would-be participants -- some of whom think they can have a say on the delegates in the primary.

That said, Democrats figure they'll exceed the record 100,000 turnout in 2004 when they backed John Kerry. State party chair Dwight Pelz pegs turnout at 125,000 to 200,000. Republican chair Luke Esser expects records, too.

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Long Beach, Calif.: Are Washingtonians favoring Obama in a landslide, as Alaskans did? Thanks!

Brad Shannon: Wish I had that kind of secret knowledge. My job would be so much easier.

All I can say is that Obama raised more money than any candidate and had more individual contributors in our state than the other Democrats -- and his activists have been loudly up-and-running for a long time. Gov. Gregoire certainly plugged in to the energy.

But just as John Kerry seemed to emerge out of nowhere in 2004 with a quiet, behind-the-scenes effort, Clinton's people are well-organized, well-connected and well-endorsed by the state's leading Democratic politicians -- including U.S. Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell.

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Falls Church, Va.: I think based on the way the Web site just puts "Washington Primaries" in the listing, most of us self-absorbed D.C. residents were mighty confused to find you here...

Brad Shannon: I'm sure you're not the first person I've offended today.

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Annapolis, Md.: Who has more juice in the state: Patty Murray or Christine Gregoire?

Brad Shannon: Great question, and maybe we should ask our own readers who they think has the juice, pulp or whatever. But I'm going to dance around your question. I will say Murray won by a very comfortable margin in 2004 over then-Rep. George Nethercutt -- but she had 12 years of constituent work behind her and a clear record of delivering money for her state. Gregoire has shown she can deliver for Democrats in her three years.

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Bremerton, Wash.: My daughter wanted to go to Obama's rally, but then one of the ferries got blown into our new breakwater and got taken off the runs. She gave up on it. Any chance the Democratic candidate will come to the East Side of the Puget Sound before November?

Brad Shannon: East Sound? He or she would be nuts not to show up in Seattle, so yes.

West Sound? That's the longer shot. Maybe the naval yard at Bremerton will look like an enticing backdrop for the campaign theme of the day.

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Short Hill, N.J.: What do the early polls suggest?

Brad Shannon: Hillary. That's according to the nonpartisan Washington Poll published by a social-research department of the University of Washington.

That was in November.

Hillary 44 percent.
Obama 27 percent.
Edwards 16 percent.
Kucinich 5 percent and Richardson 3 percent.

That was before Obama's stock rose nationally and he overcame Clinton's presumptive position.

Keep in mind what the view was among Republicans:

Giuliani 34
McCain 19
Thompson 16
Romney 15
Huckabee 9.

We haven't seen much local polling since.

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New York: Is Washington a pro-war or anti-war state? I'm familiar with coffee-shop liberals there, but I'm also familiar with Boeing refueling tanker scam machinists there? Sen. Boeing-Murray is anything but progressive.

Brad Shannon: We have the full spectrum. It is interesting that the state Democratic Party adopted a plank against the Iraq war early on, and despite the state GOP's criticisms there has been no harm to the party's interests.

On the other hand, we've got lots of military bases. People are pretty smooth in distinguishing between criticizing the Iraq occupation and supporting troops. No coincidence, but Sen. Murray has worked the health-care-for-veterans angle pretty hard.

The political middle seems pretty capable of embracing a strong military while insisting upon judicious use of force.

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Seattle, Wash.: Polls: Yet The Stranger shows more recent polls giving Obama a 22-point lead in our state. Could it be that the pollsters really have no idea how the 40 percent of independent, infrequent voters will end up voting? Considering they can choose to vote either Democratic or GOP in this state?

Brad Shannon: Well then, let's bow to the Stranger.

Your point about the independents is interesting. And that's where Obama can
pack some wallop -- if independents are willing to sign in as Democrats at the caucuses.

Obama really has caught a few big independents, like Democratic state Sen. Tim Sheldon of rural Potlatch -- west side of Hood Canal in timber, shellfish and recreation country.

Sheldon led "Democrats for Bush" in 2004, backed Dino Rossi for governor, and early this week came out in favor of Obama.

Sheldon said Romney was "flat" and he felt McCain was not right because he felt it was time for a generational change in leadership -- and he believed Obama was the only one who could move forward and unify the country.

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Former Sammamish, Wash., Resident: Can you assess Maria Cantwell's clout at this point and how is she leaning? Will she pull high-tech and bio-tech money to her endorsed candidate -- like Rob?

Brad Shannon: She's in Clinton's camp. Same with Sen. Murray. Hard to imagine she wouldn't help corral money to the eventual nominee.

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Seattle, Murray/Gregoire country: As one of Gov. Chris Gregoire's and Sen. Patty Murray's earliest supporters, I think it's a tie between their support. We love them both, but this state has a very strong independent streak, so I doubt either endorsement really swayed anyone. I'm worried my poor library won't be able to hold the thousands of caucus attendees tomorrow at 1 p.m., though...

Brad Shannon: I agree: Our voters are independent. I see endorsements more as an indicator than a swayer of opinion.

It was telling early on that "new Democrat" Adam Smith, the congressman from Tacoma, signed on to lead Obama's state campaign. He'd led Kerry's last time. And it was not surprising after Edwards dropped out that his state leader, Paul Berendt, a former state party chairman, went with Clinton. But I think plenty of other Edwards supporters are ready for someone really new -- like Obama.

Go figure.

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Brad Shannon: Time to wrap it up. Thanks for your questions. I look forward to seeing how it all works out tomorrow -- and down the road.

If you want to route other questions to me, I'm at bshannon@theolympian.com.

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