Live Analysis: Texas, Ohio Primary Returns

Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, March 4 at 7:30 p.m. ET to break down the returns from the Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island as they're announced, and to examine what they mean for the candidates in the 2008 presidential primaries.

The transcript follows.

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Robert G. Kaiser: Hello and welcome to what will be an exciting -- and very possibly long -- night. Please share your questions, comments and -- if you're in Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas or Ohio -- your experiences voting (or not) today.

Warning: The exit polls are totally inconclusive so far; both Texas and Ohio are very close. Be patient!

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Roseland, N.J.: Wondering if you saw Mimi Schwartz's op-ed in the New York Times today, suggesting that demographic shifts mean Texas could be in play in the general. Seems pretty far-fetched to me. If McCain has to even spend a day defending Texas, the GOP is in for a serious Alamo moment elsewhere. Even given an influx of Latino voters, do you see any merit to Ms. Schwartz's thesis?

washingtonpost.com: Lone Star Liberals Are Back (New York Times, March 4)

Robert G. Kaiser: I think there are many indications that the red-blue map we've gotten used to from 2000 and 2004 is going out the window this year. Could Texas be part of that? I am no expert on Texas, but I think a lot of states are going to be interesting this time that haven't been interesting in a while.

In an act of generosity, my colleague Chris Hopkins has given you a link to our competition, so everyone can read the piece the questioner alluded to. I read it and found it fascinating.

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La Marque, Texas: Why is the media representation so biased toward Obama? Are the powers that be in our capital afraid of Hilary Clinton?

Robert G. Kaiser: What are you referring to, La Marque?

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Has Huckabee done any actual campaigning in Texas or Ohio? Yeah, it's a foregone conclusion, but I was just wondering whether he was trying to keep his name in the papers and build contacts and organization for future races.

Robert G. Kaiser: He has campaigned quite actively in both states.

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Seattle: After tonight, and then caucuses in Wyoming on Saturday and a primary in Mississippi next week, there will be no contests until Pennsylvania on April 22. That's more than six weeks! If Hillary decides to continue, will it be possible to go six weeks before Pennsylvania without going into the dirtiest of dirty politics?

Robert G. Kaiser: This is a very good, very big question. If there is no clear result tonight -- Obama wins, Clinton wins -- then the Democrats face a grim prospect of six weeks of uncertainty.

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Jacksonville, Fla.: Can you explain how today's vote works in Texas? What are the roles of the primary and caucuses?

washingtonpost.com: How the Ohio and Texas Primaries Work (Post, March 4)

Robert G. Kaiser: Here is a good story we ran the other day explaining the Texas Two-Step.

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Rockville, Md.: Will the media narrative portray Hillary victories in both Ohio and Texas as a comeback, even though she had been leading in the state by 20 to 30 points a month ago? It would be akin to a football team with a 27-point halftime lead giving up 4 touchdowns, only to kick a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.

Robert G. Kaiser: I cannot speak for "the media," an institution to which I never have applied for membership -- indeed, whose membership no longer is clear. I think you make a very good point, and it's certainly one the Obama camp will be making, no matter the final results tonight. But let's wait and see what those results are.

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Arlington, Va.: Please help me keep my sanity! It is driving me crazy that Sen. Clinton and her campaign keep moving the goalposts, and keep contradicting their own statements without any acknowledgement of it. It is making me insane. I understand why they're doing this, but it's making them look so slimy, and it's giving me a headache. Is there any downside to this for them?

washingtonpost.com: Rough Sketch: Clinton Moves the Goalposts (washingtonpost.com, March 4)

Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a nice piece on the subject. Hey, this is politics. Spinning is part of the game, and has been for years. But you and I can remember what everybody said last week, as well as what they said today, can't we? I hope so.

I don't think there is any way Hillary can escape what her husband said recently: She has to win both tonight to avoid being told to pack it up by a great many prominent Democrats.

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Arlington, Va.: I was predicting Clinton would win by about 8 points in Ohio. Does the fact that it's currently too close to call indicate the margin may be much tighter than predicted?

Robert G. Kaiser: The difference in the exit polls is much smaller than your prediction, and within the exit poll's margin of error.

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Columbus, Ohio: It seems like many Republicans are electing to vote in the Democratic primary so that they can choose Clinton and avoid Obama in the general. Will this backfire on them?

Robert G. Kaiser: You seem to have bad information. The exit polls show that just less than 10 percent of the Ohio voters who cast ballots in the Democratic primary today identified themselves as Republicans, and they are voting decisively for Obama.

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McLean, Va.: The Clinton campaign is spinning the idea that losses in some states tonight indicate that doubts have surfaced about Obama, after 11 straight wins. That's ludicrous. Since when does a candidate have to win every race to earn the nomination?

Robert G. Kaiser: You make an important point. The winner is the one who gets the most delegates, period.

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Rockville, Md.: What are the chances we will see another 1968?

Robert G. Kaiser: Zero.

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Stockholm, Sweden: I just wanted to let you know that here in Sweden people don't care who wins between Hillary and Obama. Also, they never even consider McCain; Europeans really want the Democrats to win this one, or they may never speak to us Americans again.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting. I was in Europe last week and found a lot of Obamamania. But I wasn't in Sweden.

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Boulder, Colo.: Let's talk about Texas. Is this an open primary? If so, how are those swing voters being accounted for in the polls? Wouldn't an open primary greatly increase Obama's chances in that state today?

Robert G. Kaiser: Texas and Ohio are both open primaries.

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Washington: If you were covering the campaigns directly tonight, where would you want to be, Ohio or Texas? Where is the more interesting story?

Robert G. Kaiser: In my opinion, the place to be tonight is in the newsroom. There's no real story on the ground on the night of Election Day. The only things you really want to see are the speeches by the candidates, and they're easy to see in the newsroom.

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Washington: I've read a lot of news articles stating that it would be mathematically very hard for Clinton to win the delegate count, even if she wins Ohio and Texas tonight. If that's the case, why are so many TV pundits tonight talking about how she could "break the race wide open" and so forth? If the math is going to remain very daunting for her, why is the predominant message on TV so different? (I know you're not on TV; I don't hold you accountable!)

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. What are you watching? I haven't seen anyone say "break it wide open," but I'm not seeing everything, for sure. The articles are correct; it is very, very hard for Clinton to win the majority of delegates.

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State of Confusion: I am truly amazed at how long the rumor, disproved long ago, that Obama is a Muslim sticks around. There on Fox News this morning, among the list of headlines they kept up on screen through several stories, was "Obama Muslim?" I am sure the fair and balanced folks at Fox would say they were not making any allegation, simply reporting a story about what others said -- but it is a tried-and-true practice in dirty politics that even if an assertion is false, it can also pay off to keep raising it again and again (as long as the actual opposition candidate does not do it). At least Shepard Smith of Fox News long ago said flatly that the rumor about Obama being Muslim had been disproved and that it should be put to bed.

Robert G. Kaiser: I agree with you -- lousy journalism.

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San Diego: Good morning. Last night and this morning, the news networks were continuously showing footage that at least gave the appearance of Clinton suggesting that McCain would make a better president than Obama. Isn't this just creating campaign ad footage for the Republicans? Is it going to get worse if this thing continues on to Pennsylvania? I voted for Clinton in my state's primary, but as it becomes increasingly clear that she cannot overtake him in pledged delegates, I do not want her torpedoing the party's nominee for the general election.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting. I didn't read those comments as endorsing McCain; I think she is trying to change the perception that Obama is more electable than she is. Incidentally, the Texas and Ohio exit polls both show majorities believing that Obama is more likely to defeat a Republican in November than Clinton.

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Liberty Hill, Texas: Just a quick note to tell you they just about ran out of Democratic ballots in Williamson County (north of Austin) around 2 p.m. Some history: You cannot get a redder area in Texas than here, and the Republican table sign-in sheet was just about empty, which is unheard of. Most of us are voting Democratic (we are an open primary as you know) as we know McCain has got it wrapped up and just want to see the Democratic race go on and see them beat each other up. The talk around town (including Austin) today is that Hillary may take this area, which is a laugher. In the general, all will go back to normal and she will wonder what happened to all the voters she got.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting. interesting.

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Manchester, Vt.: What happens if senior citizen McCain dies before the Republican convention in September? Is it a brokered convention, or does Huckabee automatically step up?

Robert G. Kaiser: Nothing would be automatic. Huckabee has no legal standing in this race.

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Washington: All the hoopla about Hillary and Barack is really fun, but it's important to remember what counts. If anything in politics is certain -- if history has taught us anything -- it's that you can Swift Boat anyone.

Robert G. Kaiser: Geez, that's a cynical view. Any opinions on the other side out there?

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Atlanta: It seems to me that people forget how nasty the general election will be (they always are). This Democratic primary is pretty tame by comparison.

Robert G. Kaiser: McCain is not Bush, and Rove doesn't work for him; this can be a different kind of campaign. But a lot of outside groups will be in it too, and they can be out of control.

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Grayslake, Ill.: Hi. To me, this idea of media bias towards Obama is without merit. Hillary's any-means-necessary approach is unsavory to many. Also, have we all forgotten that although Obama gets included in the Rezko commentary, Bill and Hillary were photographed with him? Knowing the Clintons, this photo was not free. Hence, the bias is unfounded, or could be in the opposite direction!

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting.

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The Clinton spin machine is working: Robert: I've just heard Chris Matthews talking about a possible "shift in the cosmos" (I swear) if Clinton manages close wins in Ohio and/or Texas. So, 12 straight blowout wins mean nothing. Wins in Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, Wisconsin and other states aren't important. The previous massive leads she's blown in these two states don't matter. The fact that she's likely to gain few delegates doesn't matter. The cosmos is shifting. Sheesh.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for bringing us up to date.

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Washington: Someone should tell that Liberty Hill, Texas, poster who said he/she and other Republicans were intentionally voting for Clinton in order to cause havoc that that's not exactly good citizenry. I know it's an open primary, but intentionally using our voting system to cause mischief is nothing to brag about.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.

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California: In response to the question of media bias, The Washington Post ran three anti-Clinton editorials in one day a few weeks ago, and the total number of anti-Clinton editorials The Washington Post has published is much, much larger than the number of anti-Obama editorials. Anti-Clinton media bias is quite real, and extremely unfair. "Saturday Night Live" hit the nail right on the head, but much of the press seems to be in denial.

Robert G. Kaiser: Editorials are supposed to be opinionated; they have no influence on the news coverage of The Post. I don't think they are evidence of bias, myself.

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GOP in Northeast: Mr. Kaiser, these chats are indispensable. Can you explain something to a jaded Republican in the northeast? Clinton and Obama are separated (at this point) by about 100 delegates of more than 2,000 allocated thus far. Why are people calling for her to drop out? I don't know if they would if Edwards and Obama were the last men standing and Obama was only 100 off Edwards's tally. Is the Democratic contest from here on out only able to be won by Obama? Thanks.

The Trail: Clinton Down, but Not Out, for the Count (washingtonpost.com, March 4)

Robert G. Kaiser: Here is a good explanation by my colleague Peter Baker, from our online feature The Trail earlier today. Peter explains how hard it is for Clinton to prevail.

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California: Press bias even extends to which questions you take during this chat. You've had many more anti-Clinton/pro-Obama questions than the other way around. What safeguards, if any, do you have in place to recognize and prevent bias?

Robert G. Kaiser: Whoa. I am picking the questions to answer,and I guarantee you I am doing it without regard to whom the questioner seems to favor.

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Confusion: If the margin of Clinton over Obama among Democratic voters is less than 10 percent, then the 10 percent of self-identified Republicans could swing the race to Obama, right? If they are self-identified Republicans, why the heck are they voting in a Democratic race, except to screw things up and swing the race to the weakest Democrat in the general election, right? It seems like you're rejecting the idea of Republicans voting to ensure the selection of the weaker Democratic candidate out of hand, when it makes perfect logical sense.

Robert G. Kaiser: In Ohio everyone is allowed to vote in either party's primary. That's their law.

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Re: Obama/NAFTA: Would you agree that Obama has some explaining to do to his supporters -- people like me -- about denying he had contact with the Canadians about not really meaning what he said on the campaign trail about NAFTA ... and then later having to parse that denial? What was Obama doing, anyway, talking to the Canadians -- or any foreign government for that matter --about such things? I am very perplexed about such behavior. As another Obama supporter in my office said, Obama seems to be getting ahead of himself (in things like this and in other I've-already-locked-this-thing-up presumptions).

The Fact-Checker: Obama Parses His Words on NAFTA (washingtonpost.com, March 3)

Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a good analysis of what happened by our preeminent fact-checker, Michael Dobbs. Obama did not meet with anybody -- it was a University of Chicago economics professor who is an Obama advisor. It is murky, as you'll see in this story, but Michael concludes that Obama was less than frank.

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Washington: On the issue of press bias, I wonder if the people who allege it consider that sometimes one candidate gets more negative coverage than the other because there are more negative things to report. And as for alleging bias against you in this chat, well, maybe there are more pro-Obama posters out there. There's no need to see a conspiracy in everything; people should chill out a little.

Robert G. Kaiser: Wouldn't that be nice? Chilling out, I mean.

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Los Angeles: Time for some tough analysis: If Barack Obama wins Texas and Vermont and Clinton wins Ohio and Rhode Island, where does that leave us?

Robert G. Kaiser: Well, it isn't yet time for that analysis, because you're just guessing.

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Arlington, Va.: How reliable are the numbers and percentages reporting? Right now, reports show more than 700,000 individuals have voted in Texas with 1 percent of precincts reporting. This would mean over 70 million individuals voted in Texas today. Can that even be possible?

Robert G. Kaiser: I'm not sure, but I bet it's one percent of precincts, not of voters.

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Ashland, Ore.: Are the Texas primary polls still open? Are these just early votes that are being reported now? The Post indicates 496,000 votes have been counted and Obama is waaaay up. What's the deal here?

Robert G. Kaiser: Ignore these early numbers. Polls close at 9 p.m.

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Boca Raton, Fla.: I see many senior Democrats saying that regardless who wins the nomination, the party will close ranks behind that candidate. My own anecdotal evidence says otherwise. I know few Obama supporters who would be willing to support Clinton should she win the nomination. In fact, I detect downright hostility to her. Are these senior officials (i.e. Rendell et al) seeing something different, or do they have some other source for their information?

Robert G. Kaiser: Geez, in my experience, I haven't met a single partisan Democrat this year who wants to vote for John McCain. Remember Will Rogers' wonderful wise crack: "I belong to no organized political party -- I'm a Democrat." I think Democrats feel this is their year, and intend to do what they can to make it so.

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Washington: The Clinton campaign claims if Obama doesn't win all four states Tuesday, it will show buyer's remorse compared to his 11 earlier wins. Isn't any buyer's remorse better judged by movement in the Texas and Ohio polls away from Clinton over the past month?

Robert G. Kaiser: You pays your money. ... It is worth remembering how far Clinton was ahead in both states a month ago. If you were in the Clinton inner circle, what would your primary goal be? I think it might be to head off calls for her to give up and concede to Obama, even though he has a clear lead for delegates etc. So they'll come up with every argument they can, like "buyer's remorse."

At the same time, if Obama were to go into a losing streak starting tonight, that could have a big impact. But we don't have any reason to expect it right now.

We are getting more exit poll results, and they only show the race in Texas getting even closer. Essentially, both Ohio and Texas look even right now, and the margin of error of the exit polls is plus or minus four percent.

So (sorry), be patient!

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Portland, Ore.: When can we start taking these incoming numbers seriously? I mean, I know Obama is pwning in some of these polls, but only 2 percent has been counted.

Robert G. Kaiser: See previous comment.

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Liberty Hill, Texas (update): First off, they are really not trying to cause mischief, they just want to see Mrs. Clinton continue on. They want to see the race continue. Also here is a link about how we ran out of ballots at 5 p.m. By the way I voted for "Obama," as I cannot stand her -- and I am a Democrat with a Republican missus, for the record.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks very much for posting.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: Why does Obama get such a "kid gloves" treatment from the press during the primaries? When the general election comes, he'll get the full "magnifying glass" treatment. By not vetting Obama during the primaries, you increase the chance of a Republican victory.

Robert G. Kaiser: I wonder what you think of as "the press." The Post and the New York Times have written acres about Obama. Have you read all of it? I just don't agree with your characterization.

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California: But how would you know if you were biased? Is there any system of checks and balances? It's an important problem and I'm wondering if there's any way to prevent or minimize it.

Robert G. Kaiser: This is not a topic for a chat. Obviously, all decisions made by journalists are "subjective"; they aren't put up to a vote or passed on by a board of judges. But we have been doing this all our lives. We like to think of ourselves as professional and believe our job is to be "fair," not to be "objective," because whether or not anything is objective has to be, by definition, a subjective judgment. Obviously consumers have to decide what they think of our success or failure.

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Washington: Anything happening over the controversy of Clinton's ad darkening Obama to look more black?

washingtonpost.com: Liberal Bloggers: Clinton Campaign Darkened Obama's Skin in New TV Ad (ABCnews.com, March 4)

Robert G. Kaiser: I just checked this out myself, having missed it earlier. I have no info about it, sorry. Nor do I know what to make of it, I confess.

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Rhode Island: Where are the Rhode Island results? Zero precincts seem to be reporting. Can you tell us anything about the exit polls there?

Robert G. Kaiser: Polls close in ten minutes, at 9 p.m.

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"Geez, in my experience, I haven't met a single partisan Democrat this year who wants to vote for John McCain.": Hi, let me introduce myself. Hillary Clinton may be pulling off two wins tonight by attacking the most exciting, vibrant and successful (voter turnout and donations) candidate the party has produced perhaps in decades. She has dropped hints about counting her bogus wins in Michigan and Florida and getting the delegates from those races. Damn right I'll consider McCain and take my chances that a Democratic Congress can keep him in line.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. I'd like to hear from you again in October, if Clinton turns out to be your nominee.

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Welcome back, Maestro Kaiser!: I've missed your primary night chats of late. I'm a registered Democrat from California; I voted for Obama after much agonizing. I'd like your thoughts on the dilemma of the Florida and Michigan delegates should the Democratic contest stay close (which appears to be likely tonight). Didn't the Democratic National Committee shoot itself in the foot when they "revoked" the delegates in those states, when you now have Clinton's campaign asserting they should be seated? Thank you so much for hosting this chat. Long live The Washington Post, and please ask the powers that be to find a way to deliver the print edition to Los Angeles, at least on Sundays!

Robert G. Kaiser: Well thanks! I'm afraid the days of far-flung delivery of the on-paper edition are history. You have to get used to the online Post. But it's good! Easy to read! And it's all there.

Michigan and Florida are huge problems for the Democrats unless they can decide the race cleanly without them.

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San Francisco: If Clinton doesn't win more delegates in either place, but wins the popular vote in one of them, will she still continue to campaign? The Slate.com article made a really good point, showing that (not including superdelegates) it's very difficult for Clinton to make up her numbers even with wins today. And Bill made that point about needing to win both. As a side note, I think it's sick that "Saturday Night Live" and "The Daily Show" have stooped to pandering. You can't throw a fit about being asked questions first and expect people not to mock you.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting.

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St Louis, Mo.: Thought you might be able to tell me how the media (there's that word again) can report the results on their Web sites before the Texas Secretary of State gets it onto hers. Thanks.

Robert G. Kaiser: Well, this is our business; it isn't hers. We post what the Associated Press gives us; we have no independent sources of results of our own.

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San Francisco: I think this "kid gloves" argument is lame. Obama catches as much crap for his middle name as Clinton did for her wardrobe. When the media isn't harping on Clinton's lack of appeal, they are beating up Obama for lack of experience.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you.

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Savage, Md.: Why do you think Huckabee is staying in the race? Does he want be vice president? Is he positioning for future runs or positions in the GOP?

Robert G. Kaiser: He's having a great time on the national stage. He has done amazingly well, considering where he started. He is loving all the attention, as any politician would. I have no idea what he is hoping for, but I don't think we need any special explanation for what he has been doing.

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Arlington, Va.: I'm an Obama supporter who probably wouldn't vote for Clinton if she were the nominee. I'm an independent-leaning Democrat and I've never voted for anyone other than a Democrat in a presidential vote, but I just can't stomach voting for someone who has the integrity issues I see in her. It's weird; during the '90s, I thought the rabid Clinton-haters were partisan crazies, but after watching this campaign, now a lot of their charges ring true to me. I likely would vote for McCain if Clinton got the nomination. I don't think I'm alone.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for the post. It is noteworthy that in our poll and all other national polls that I have seen show Obama running better against McCain than Clinton.

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Derry, N.H.: Have you heard any discussion of Democratic leaders trying to get together and end the race? My guess is that would be more likely if Obama wins Texas tonight.

Robert G. Kaiser: Heard nothing about that.

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St. Louis: With all the talk about media bias in favor of Obama, did you happen to see the CBS Evening News series "For the Record," which devoted 3 percent of its eight-minute report on Clinton to negative reporting vs. the whopping 43 percent devoted to negative reporting on Obama in the report on him? Google and you shall see. If the answer is "no, didn't see it," have you noticed any pro-Clinton bias on the part of CBS or any other news organization?

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting.

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Los Angeles: By analysis I meant some predicting and forecasting. Given your experience and expertise, can you forecast a bit about what you see happening? This is where I think analysts have most relevance and use rather than just adding another opinion.

Robert G. Kaiser: Well, I can't try to do that until I have some hard results. We really do not know yet who is going to win Texas or Ohio tonight.

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Washington: Hi, and thanks for holding the chat. Can you tell me whether Vermont's delegates are awarded proportionately, or is it winner-take-all? I've seen it reported both ways in the past two days.

Robert G. Kaiser: You can find a good explanation of Vermont's proportional system right here.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: I'm a hard-core Democrat, but I'm voting for McCain if Obama is nominated and Hillary's not on the ticket. She got a raw deal from the press and should be the nominee. If she wins, I'm convinced she'll make Obama vice president in the name of party unity. If Obama wins, I don't know who he'll choose as veep, but it most likely won't be Hillary, and he'll wind up losing the