Books: 'Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East'

Washington Post diplomatic correspondent Robin Wright was online Thursday, March 6 at 10 a.m. ET to take questions on her new book, " Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East," why she's hopeful about the region's prospects for peace, and how the presidential candidates might approach problems there.

The transcript follows.

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Robin Wright: Hello, I've signed on and look forward to your questions.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: I too am hopeful for peace in the Middle East. I see a growing understanding of the need for peace and acceptance of compromises that could be approved by all extremists, especially among the young. Is the key to hope that the voice of the extremists diminishes and in time they become ineffective? If so, how can that be achieved, especially when they often respond by violence that only keeps the situations in conflicts?

Robin Wright: Thanks for your good question. During travels for my book, "Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East," I constantly was struck by the number of people who have no sympathy or empathy for the extremists because they have provided nothing to solve the basic problems of everyday life -- from health care to education. These are the issues that people in the Middle East want addressed.

At the same time, youth is a huge dynamic in the region, with up to 70 percent of the population in some countries younger than 30. They increasingly will define the political agenda in the next decade, and potentially the political systems down the road. And they are quite restless, because youth of the Middle East face higher unemployment --- roughly one in three in several countries -- than in any other part of the world. That provides a well from which militant movements may be able to draw.

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Fullerton, Calif.: For Bush to claim peace will come to the Middle East in ten months is a stretch considering his administration neglected the Middle East for seven years. Would the Middle East still be an issue if the Bush administration had picked up where the Clinton administration left off in 2000? Thank you.

Robin Wright: Another good question. Given the current situation on the ground between Israel and the Palestinians, it's hard to be optimistic about the prospects for a Middle East peace before the end of the Bush administration. Since the Annapolis summit last November, U.S. officials have not invested the kind of time or used the enormous leverage the U.S. has to generate serious movement. Four months later, Condoleezza Rice is just trying to get the two parties to start talking again. Not hopeful!

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New York: In the article linked to above, you mention every single government in the Middle East except Israel, the one illegally occupying territory. As such, I can't take you seriously.

Robin Wright: In the article, and in my new book, I addressed the issue of political change among Muslim countries of the region, the last bloc of countries to hold out against the democratic tide that has swept so much of the world in the past quarter century. Israel is a full, robust democracy, so the new signs of democratic movements are not a issue there -- and in fact, Israel's security situation will be determined by what happens in the countries I did select: the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Morocco.

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Washington: I remember watching you on "Meet the Press" when you were with the Los Angeles Times. You've grown as a journalist. How and why did you make the transition to the Middle East "beat"?

Robin Wright: I first landed in the Middle East on Oct. 6, 1973 -- by coincidence. I went first to Lebanon and then Iran, two countries that have witnessed extraordinary change since then. I was then based in Beirut for five years (1980-1985) during the civil war. I have continued to travel there every year, usually several times, since then. So the Middle East is in my blood now; it's an addictive region if you love history as much as I do.

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Cleveland: Thank, you Ms. Wright. Since Camp David's peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979, the Egyptian people have not accepted normalization with Israel, did not compete in sporting events and have boycotted Israeli products because they felt that injustice had been done to their Palestinian brothers. If you have real democracy there, these people will elect governments that are not necessarily friendly to Israel. How do you reconcile this picture with your optimism?

Robin Wright: A very relevant question to the issue of change. I suspect the transition period in many countries will be very rough and we often may see parties win prominent positions that we are not all that comfortable with. There are a couple of strong counter-influences, however. One is the fact many of these countries, such as Egypt, need us more than we need them. Egypt is one of the three largest U.S. aid recipients, and continued U.S. support would hinge on honoring peace treaties. The U.S. also is not alone in wanting peace in the region and compliance with international standards on human rights. There's also the pressure of the European Union and other members of the world community. The forces of globalization, particularly on economics, are another element that adds pressure to conform to international norms. But I share your concern about what kinds of groups may be elected. The autocratic regimes in power have done us all a great disservice by banning, putting under house arrest, exiling or even executing many of the dissidents who have a more moderate vision -- leaving Islamist parties as the main idiom of opposition.

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Almaty, Kazakhstan: Ms. Wright, I look forward to reading your book. Perhaps you could give the short-version answer to two questions that I believe are at the core of the dilemma we face. Do you see a possibility of changing the attitudes of populations in the Muslim world toward the U.S. (e.g. the spontaneous dancing in the street in response to the Sept. 11 attacks)? What can we (the U.S.) do to foster such a change?

Also, how do we counter/eliminate the visceral anti-Western tribal culture that dominates in much of the Muslim world? Are we fooling ourselves by thinking that economic opportunities, democracy and/or military occupation -- even if achieved -- will lead to peace in the Middle East and significantly reduce (if not eliminate) the terrorist threat we face?

Robin Wright: On your first question, it'll be very interesting to see if a new U.S. administration eases some of the antipathy in the region toward the U.S. In the shorter term, what the U.S. does particularly in Iraq and on Arab-Israeli peace efforts will have a great deal to do with Muslim attitudes. The lesson of Iraq -- for the U.S. -- may be that we need to stand back and allow societies to change themselves rather than get involved. But if you're looking for information on shifting attitudes in the Islamic world, Gallup has done some interesting recent polling on attitudes.

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Lyme, Conn.: What effects do you see the Internet having on the Middle East? How is the speed of communications helping is the transmission of ideas and political statements, and what benefits and detriments is this posing for our policy-makers?

Robin Wright: An important question. The Internet and other information technology has helped people in the region gain access to information outside of the state-controlled media. Wael Abbas is one of more than 1,000 Egyptian bloggers who have begun holding the government to account. He posted a cell phone video of an Egyptian detainee being sodomized with a broomstick on his blog, which created an uproar and forced the government to prosecute two policemen. New groups are using the Internet to publicize human rights violations and inform people of what to watch for at elections to detect fraud and vote-rigging. Along with the youth bulge, information is among the catalysts of change in the region. I was struck by the fact that even in Syria now there are Internet cafes -- even though the government blocks some dissident Web sites.

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Athens, Greece: Hello. You are the only one, perhaps, who sees the Hezbollah with different eyes. Can you tell us more about your personal appraisal of the group? Thanks.

Robin Wright: I have a chapter on Hezbollah in my new book, based on covering it from its origins in 1982 when I lived in Beirut during its attacks on two U.S. embassies and the Marine compound, and up through the 2006 war with Israel. I have lost many friends to its violence, so I have no illusions about Hezbollah and its tactics. What has interested me is its evolution from the underground, when we knew none of its leaders or members, to a political party with members sitting in parliament and even Lebanon's cabinet. At the same time, Hassan Nasrallah continues to urge his followers to engage in attacks on Israel and other opponents. This is a group that still has a long way to go to get off the U.S. terrorism list and win acceptance from the international community.

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shs243: The danger of journalists breezing through a country -- as Robin Wright did in Morocco -- is that they sometimes miss the essence of movements and events. Her comments about the Peace and Justice Party, describing them as moderate, miss the mark. Yes, they are not killing anyone and do not preach violence, but in their political fief of Ksar-el-Kebir, they have organized homophobic demonstrations and have initiated a monthlong morality campaign aimed at stirring up the population along ultra-conservative lines. They soon will take their road show to other places in the country where they have a following.

Robin Wright: I seem to recall some of this language from elsewhere. Anyway, the Party of Justice and Development in Morocco is a party that does not promote Islamic law for Morocco, recognizes a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians, believes in protection for minorities (including Morocco's Jews), and has focused on the earthly issues of corruption, poverty and more powers for parliament -- not head scarves or other "Islamist" issues. At its headquarters in Rabat, the only picture on the wall is of the king. I am not aware of the activities in Ksar-el-Kebir, but I wonder if you are mixing up groups. The harder-line Islamist movement is Peace and Charity.

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Rural Illinois: As we will in all probability be entering a post-Iraq war much like our post-Vietnam experience -- i.e. withdrawal from a quagmire without a military victory, a demoralized military with recruiting problems and worn-out equipment in all the services, and pressing budgetary, fiscal and employment problems -- where do we as a nation go from here?

My personal opinion is that the price of oil will collapse because of decreased demand and substantial increases in supplies from Russia, the Caspian Sea countries, Iran and Iraq. Do we change our focus to domestic needs of employing our citizens at a living wage, re-industrializing our manufacturing base and re-arming our military to face new dangers of a resurgent Russia and the growing economic-military power of China?

Robin Wright: Such a broad question! I suspect there will be many differences between the aftermath of Iraq and Vietnam, mainly because we could walk away from Vietnam without serious repercussions, whereas we still are tied deeply to the Gulf region economically, and need its oil for our industries and cars. We may be able to withdraw troops, but Iraq's fate will impact the whole region -- and us, even if at a distance.

I wish I shared your faith in the fall of oil prices. The furious pace of China's industrialization has had a profound impact in shifting alliances. China and Iran, for example, are now important trading partners -- one of the reasons the new U.N. resolution on Iran was watered down to the point that the new punitive steps are largely voluntary, not mandatory.

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Manchester, Conn.: Do any of the potential presidential candidates have a world vision for the Palestinian/Israel/Middle East problem? I do not believe that any candidate has addressed this in any of the debates. It seems to me that the Iraqi fracas has consumed the public, and the short-term "troop withdrawal" seems to be more popular than a long-term peace process for the entire region. Your comments, please.

Robin Wright: Good point. I suspect we may not get fully developed positions or specifics on the full range of issues in the Middle East until we have two definite candidates. At the same time, there are already differences. John McCain strongly backs the surge in Iraq and continued U.S. involvement -- not walking away from Iraq. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have talked about significant troops reductions after taking office. On a broader level, Obama has staked out new territory in saying he would be willing to talk to long-standing opponents in the region. Both Mideast peace and Iraq are likely to be hotter issues later in the year and campaign.

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Bowie, Md.: It is sometimes said that if the present government in Syria fell, it would be replaced by a much more Islamic government. Do you buy that?

Robin Wright: Syria is the most brittle government in the Middle East. Clearly, Damascus is afraid of the various Islamic movements. It's very hard to tell how strong the old Muslim Brotherhood is, after it so decidedly was quashed in Hama in 1982, when thousands were killed by government forces. Its leader now lives in London (and two of his children and most of his grandchildren are American citizens). A fairly new militant movement named Jund al-Sham has been blamed for small attacks in Syria, but it is not active politically. Syria is actually one of the most secular countries in the region, and it's hard to envision an Islamist party winning an election. But it's a moot point really, because the government is not going to allow fair elections or a popular Islamic party any time soon.

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Bethesda, Md.: Is there a practical solution to peace? I remember seeing a special a few years back called "Living in the Holy Land," and there was such hatred between Israel and Arabs -- even those living inside Israel -- that it seems impossible to me...

Robin Wright: Fair question. What always surprises me, however, is that public opinion polls still indicate that the majority of people on both sides still want a two-state solution and a viable formula for coexistence. As always, getting there is the hard part! There are many spoilers in the region, and events on the ground too often have a way of overtaking diplomacy.

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Willem1: I was recently in Egypt for about 10 days, and having been there several times before I found it more depressing this time around. More women than ever are completely covered up, even at the American university in Cairo. It's extremely homophobic, and very dangerous for gays and lesbians. A fancy hotel in downtown Cairo right on the Nile River charged us approximately $55 to use the swimming pool and spa for the day, and this did not include a room; an Egyptian would have to work an entire month just to be able to go there -- if they were allowed in! I think religion here and there poisons everything and probably is the main problem. Most Egyptians worry too much about the Palestinians and not enough about starting a business or finding a good job and getting an education.

Robin Wright: The inequities in Egypt indeed are stunning. I remember the massive cemetery in Cairo, where literally thousands and thousands and thousands of people live in the mausoleums. It's popularly called "the city of the dead." For all its great history, Cairo illustrates the horrendous challenges faced in the region today -- for them and us. But I also am not as concerned about head scarves on women. In fact, I'm a little bit afraid of what we in the West have become afraid of. A woman wearing Islamic dress does not mean that she supports extremism.

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Robin Wright: Thanks so much for joining me this morning. I appreciated all of your interesting questions and wish I had more time. I hope to chat with you again sometime soon.

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