Boswell on Baseball

Thomas Boswell
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 18, 2008 3:00 PM

Washington Post sports columnist Thomas Boswell was online Friday, April 18 at 3 p.m. ET to take your questions and comments about the Washington Nationals and the rest of Major League Baseball.

The transcript follows.

Discussion Archives

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Alexandria, Va.: I am interested in the angst regarding the attendance (or lack thereof) at Nationals game. Actually, very few baseball teams sell out their parks. Watch a few games and you will see many parks are half full.

The teams that routinely sell out are the ones don't necessarily have anything to do with a winning franchise. Look at the Cubs. Up until 2004, the Red Sox. The Yankees had a dismal year until late in the season last year and haven't been the World Series in six years. But they have a long history and a fanatic fanbase.

Tom Boswell: This is the pet subject around town right now. Is Nats attendance pretty good, pretty bad or about as expected? Not many people spend much time analyzing attendance trends/patterns, so it's easy to get fooled.

First, let's establish a baseline. Since the O's in '92, 13 teams have opened new parks. (Stats from Post J4 on 3/26). The average increase from the previous full season has been +3.8%. If you throw out St. Louis, which was already selling out every game, then the average would be +40.1% That seems a fair range to expect for the Nats.

So, how are they doing? After 7 home games, average attendance is 28,214 vs 21,264 after 7 games last season. That's +32.7%.

However, everybody sells out Opening Day. The real discussion around town has been: How are they doing SINCE the Opener. In the six games since, the Nats have averaged 26,352 vs a miserable 18,077 in the same six games in '07. That's +45.8%.

If you want one more twist, the Nats second game this year was played opposite the NCAA championship game and against the worst draw in the league (Fla) on a cold night. Special pleading? Perhaps. However, since Game Two, Nats attendance is up 57.2% over the comparable dates last season.

Why is "comparable" __apples to apples__ important? Because baseball attendance is extremely seasonal __far more attendance in June, July and August__ and especially so in Washington where July and August often average 20% than other months. (In '0, the Nats drew 38,000-a-game in 38 games in mid-summer, but far less in all other times.)

Watch the next home stand. It will tell a lot. Two games with Mets, three with Cubs __both big draws__ then two with Atlanta and four with the poor-drawing Pirates. Here is the benchmark. If the Nats draw 33% more than last year __which would be satisfactory/typical, but unspectacular__ then when we chat in two weeks the Mets series should have drawn about 3,000-a-game and the Cubs over 38,000 a game while the Braves and Pittsburgh would probably draw __based on last year's norms__ about 23K (weekday) and 30K (weekend).

My best guess, and you can tease me about this (or maybe I'll gloat) is that after the second full homestand (18 games), the Nats average attendance will be about 30,600, but will rise to 32-33K over the whole season. For reference, in early '05, after the team had just returned after 33 years, many crowds were in the 20K's and the average after 19 games was 30,959.

So, now you have some facts to chew on and some crowd guesstimates for the next few weeks to toss around.

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Glen Echo: Tom

Great News for the Nationals! They must be selling thousands and thousands of tickets today. I've called multiple multiple times since 8:30 this morning (The start of their normal business hours per their recorded message) and been told endless times that all account executives are currently assisting other Nationals season ticket holders. An account representative will be with me shortly. Good times ahead or is this just abysmal customer service?

Tom Boswell: I hope the answer isn't "both."

Demand for Mets and Cubs games should be VERY high. If they aren't, THEN we've got a "bad attendance" story.

One reason that so many things have gone so smoothly at the new park is that it's not hard to cope with a crowd of 25,000 or 32,000 when capacity is 41,888.

However, it's positive to hear that parking is available to (some) non-season ticket holders. The Mets and Cubs games should be the REAL first tests of all major systems __big crowds on week nights, Metro for crowds near 40,000, food lines, parking, traffic flow. Everything has gone so much better than expected/feared so far that I don't honestly know what to expect.

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Washington, D.C.: Do you foresee the Nats coming to their sense and bringing up Justin Maxwell?

Both Rob Mackowiak and Willie Harris are abysmal while Kearns is not much better.

I say put Maxwell in center and move Milledge over to right, ...any thoughts?

Tom Boswell: I haven't checked Maxwell's stats. But he can't arrive too soon to suit me. Here is the current list of Nats hitting .218 or lower: Kearns, Belliard, Zimmerman, Lo Duca, Lopez, Harris, Boone, Pena, Estrada, M'wiak.

Worse, the Nats have been outscored 84-55 after 16 games __1/10 of the season. Those are the run-differential numbers you'd project for a 48-114 team.

Okay, they can't be that bad. Or probably even anywhere near that bad. But right now, they have gone from one of the most smart, intense, high-character, overachieving satisfying teams to watch that I have ever seen in '07 __going 73-89 with almost no visible talent__ to dumb-on-fundamentals, sometimes lazy, nervous team that tries too hard, has little poise and looks like it expects to lose.

We assumed that tests would come for Acta and Bowden. But they are coming fast. Trading Schneider replaced one of the core personalities, and one of the major supports for the pitching staff, with Lo Duca, who's hurt and has tons of baggage, and tons of Estrada. Neither can throw. Fascinating: Lo Duca can hit and call a game, but not throw or catch. Estrada can hit and catch, but not throw or call a game. Flores can hit and throw, but not field or throw (yet). And Nieves can throw, catch and call a game, but probably can't hit .180. Quite a combination.

But Milledge is hitting close to .300. However, he has the worst instinct in CF of anybody who's been out there since '05. Acta thinks he's a CF. Most others think he's a corner outfielder.

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Hernandez, Va.: Boz,

Is Marrero really going to be ready to start at first base in 2009? Are the Nats really going to trade Johnson this summer? Unless your name is Zimmerman I don't see how you go from single A to the bigs so fast.

Tom Boswell: Marrero shouldn't be rushed. Don't expect to see him before '10.

For that matter, despite his great 110-BI '06, Zimmerman may be paying a price in years No. 2 and 3 for not having a lot of seasoning. (Just a point to debate. I don't claim to be sure.) The league seems to have learned him a little better than he has learned the league. And he's very smart. Nevertheless, Z was hitting every bad hard in Florida and the first week of the season. He'll hit. But will he develop into a .270-.280 hitter or a .300-.310 hitter? He needs to remember that he is an all-fields line drive and hard ground ball hitter, not (yet) a slugger. Those walk-off homers shouldn't fool him. He's not hitting the ball back up the middle and to the opposite field like he does when he's productive. His head is pulling out. His last swing in his last at bat last night __a perfect -8 may have been a good sign after a truly miserable slump.

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Croton-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Lenny Harris? Is he in over his head? The younger hitters with potential like Kearns, Zimmerman and Lopez have all gotten worse under his watch. Do you think his lack of coaching experience is hurting the team?

Tom Boswell: That's a definite 'maybe.' Funny how a .219 team batting average puts everybody under the hot lights. As a team, the Nats are impatient with only 53 walks in 543 at bats. And 11 of those belong to Nick Johnson __who looks like he's just fine, thank you.

In all the current misery it's easy to overlook that __Guzman looks like he actually does hit better after his lasik eye surgery in '06. Chico really does throw MUCH harder with his new delivery and might be a decent 4-5 starter. (But who are No. 1-2-3?) Lannan, on his best nights, can be special. But how consistent can he be? And why isn't he being given more seasoning?

At many levels, the Nationals look panicky right now. Why on earth is Cordero __who looks like he may be seriously injured__ on the ML roster, not on the DL or rehabbing in the minors? What's the hurry with Hill? Doesn't he have too much long-term value to risk? Why is Pena back when his timing is non-existent?

Watching Cordero on Wednesday night was almost too sad to see. Facts: His velocity was down in Florida. He felt a "sharp pain" and heard a "pop" when throwing on Opening Night. He's a trooper, so he comes back as fast as he can. Then, he throws 10-to-12 mph slower than normal IN A GAME. The poor kid can't get the ball to 80 mph. There's a road-side batting cage machine down the road from me that throws 80. And we all hit it.

MRI's don't show everything. Cordero has a spectacular early-career record even if he escapes a lot of jams and gives up some homers. All that matters are the numbers, babe. Career 2.79 ERA and 128 saves at age 26. He should be treated like pure gold. And, right now, he's being treated like Just Another Guy. Somebody in the organization needs to stand up and say, "Shut this guy down until he can throw 89 again or until we find out what's wrong with him."

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Laurel, Md.: So are the O's braintrust going to let Nick Markakis slip away right as he turns into one of the best multi-tooled OFs in the game?

Tom Boswell: No, no, Nick is a core long-term piece. Not going anywhere.

The Orioles, who tried to improve their clubhouse atmosphere in the off season and demand a better team-first attitude, are now playing quite a bit like the 07 Nats. The Nats, who wanted to find out what they could get from a few higher-talent players with questionable histories, aren't doing as well. FAR too early to reach a conclusion. Almost the entire Nats lineup is made up of LONG established players (none of them especially old, except Lo Duca) whose offensive ability should be a given. Guzman, Belliard, Zimmerman, Johnson, Milledge, Kearns, Pena/Dukes, Lo Duca/Estrada isn't any powerhouse. But it is FAR from the worst-hitting team in the NL. That means the Nats will "catch up" with their scoring. However, will the team ERA __25th in baseball__ improve without a healthy Hill at the top of the rotation? That's the tougher long-term question. Like Cordero, I worry about him. Great makeup and stuff. Can't stay healthy. Lots of young arms in the minors behind him. And a sense that the team is, in essence, saying, "Come on. It's time to produce. We have an assembly line behind you. We can't wait forever."

Oh, by the way, where is that solid-but-unspectacular free agent starting pitcher that I have been nagging Kasten/Bowden to acquire for the last year to __in part__ lower the probabilities of a 4-12 start with a new park. No, I don't mean Odalis Perez. Livan Hernandez, who started 3-0, practically begged to come back to DC and eat innings. The Nats didn't want to clog up their pitching pipeline of the future with Livan. That may prove correct. But it sure isn't working out to well right this minute.

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New York: By any metric, the Nationals are a top-5 franchise, economically. But their lineup, and payroll, are bottom-5. Why does The Post continue to give Lerner a pass despite Lerner being the recipient of the largest gift of corporate welfare in U.S. history?

Tom Boswell: According to the most-recent Forbes, the Nationals had the highest operating income in baseball in '07 with EBITDA of $43.M. That explains, in part, how the Lerners could put $40-to-$50 million into the new ballpark. They have said, and there's no current reason to doubt them, that they don't intend to take a cent of profit out of the team for their first 10 years as owners. However, they may not be putting too many cents INTO the team either. The whole operation may be pretty close to break even. Lots of resources going to the factory (Nats Park) and development (young players,scouts, the minors), but little to the MLB team. Well, the park is DONE. Ticket prices are higher than at RFK (though still probably roughly OK), so the honeymoon on spending is over. Or soon will be.

By the way, maybe those $325-game Presidential Seats and $160-game Diamond club seats directly behind home plate __THAT ARE ALWAYS HALF EMPTY__ would sell if they were priced more in line with San Francisco and Seattle, rather than New York and Chicago. Forget the free parking and food allowance. Just sell the darn tickets for $125 and $95, then let em pay for dinner in the fancy homeplate club if they want it. OK, I know that isn't pretentious enough, so it'll need work. Just let the best seats in the park sit empty every night and tell yourself: After we win our second World Series, they'll be begging us for those seats.

Despite all this testiness, the Lerners have done a fine job so far. They are part of the reason the ballpark is so first rate and so much attention has been paid to the "fan experience." That's their past experience as developers. They approve of the reasonable upper-deck ticket prices, and hopefully will keep those 12,000 seats in the same range indefinitely. And, as for how the ballclub itself is run, they leave it to Kasten and Bowden with very little interference. Though they set the budget. And "the Plan" is Stan's. It's worked before. It's working in the minors. And, in a month, if Hill is healthy, Zimmerman-Johnson-Kearns-Milledge-Pena are just hitting at the level you'd expect from past history, the world may be a brighter place. But when a team loses 12 of 13__and gets outscored 76-40 (!!!)__ that gets people's attention.

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Re: Milledge: There's lots of outfielders who had great speed but were not good fielders and didn't play CF: Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, to name two off the top of my head. I think they need to realize this about Milledge, who I think will be a terrific hitter.

Also, I disagree with you about prior our CF. Nook got equally bad jumps but he could outrun his mistakes and was great going after the ball once he decided which direction to go in. Milledge isn't as fast and loses track of the ball while he's in motion.

Tom Boswell: In other words, you AGREE with me. (LOL)

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Papal Visit & The Nats & Nats Stadium: Hi Boz,

Since the Pope is able to do what the Nats cannot, i.e. sell out the new stadium, do you think the Stan and Jim will offer him a contract even if he can't hit the breaking ball? The Popemobile cruising the warning track during the 7th inning stretch alone would make the contract a bargain. Seriously, do you have any idea what the rental charge was that the Catholic Church paid for Nats Stadium yesterday? Does the city get that money or the Nats?

Tom Boswell: If Teddy could use the Popemobile, could he finally beat George, Tom and Abe?

(Somebody'd slash the tires. You can't kill the gimmick.)

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Elkridge, Md.: Delighted to read about Frank Robby's return to the Nats' clubhouse and that he's now past his dismissal. I'm a lifelong Orioles fan and remember how delighted I was when he came to the team and all those great years and pennants he gave us! I was also there when he hit a HR in his first game as the Indians' player/manager. He was always a class act so I was happy to read that he is now doing well. Baseball owes him a lot.

Tom Boswell: The Nats owe him a lot, too. I was EXTREMELY glad to hear it and hope there is a Frank Robinson Day at the new park.

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Southeast D.C.: So now that another homestand has passed... How do you feel about the new ballpark? Have you gotten a halfsmoke at Ben's yet? Yummy!

Tom Boswell: FYI, you can get Ben's Chili Bowl dogs at the 10 "Nats Dogs" stands. So, stop lining up for heaven knows how long at the one "Ben's" stand. Just go to the 10 (t-e-n) empty Nats Dog stands all around the park and get the same Ben's fare. Or at least the chili dogs. (This, according to Stan and others.)

As I've written, the park is a beauty. No, not in the top seven, which are almost untouchable __Fenway, Wrigley, Yanks, Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, O's. But right in the battle with the next seven really wonderful parks in (no order) Seattle, San Diego, St. Louis, Colorado, Cleveland and Philadelphia. If the Nats get the parking right and the neighborhood gets built up and the waterfront is developed, there's a chance for Washington to get into the Top 10 in a few years. Certainly the top dozen. That's high praise in an era when (within three years) there will be 22 new parks opened since '91, plus Fenway, Wrigley, Dodgers Stadium and the still-elegant Royals Stadium. The Golden Age of Ballparks. And Washington is now right in the middle of it.

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Clifton, Va.: Please fire Acta and move the Nats. They are a disgrace. And that pitiful stadium needs to be bulldozed. Send the tem back to Montreal or Nashville. Get them out of here!

Tom Boswell: There are several fire-'em-all "questions" today. Gotta love baseball, the game of streaks, where the only thing that is certain about the consensus is that __by the next chat in two weeks__ it will probably change completely.

See you at the (new) park!

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Tom Boswell: Final note: In my response to the first question there was a typo. The percentage increase in the 13 new parks since '92 was 36.8%, not 3.8%. Makes more sense that way, doesn't! Sorry. The reference to an average increase of 40.1%, excluding St. Louis, is correct. Thanks.

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