washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
Discussion Policy
Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.
|
Monday, April 21, 2008; 10:00 AM
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Michael D. Shear was online Monday, April 21 at 10 a.m. ET.
The transcript follows.
Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.
Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
____________________
Michael D. Shear: Good morning everyone. It feels like it's been weeks since the last presidential primary. Anyone feel like they're in withdrawal? Have no fear. Tomorrow will be here soon enough. Let's have at it.
_______________________
Reading, Pa.: Obama signs are springing up like tulips here in Berks County. I think Obama wins tomorrow and Hillary exits gracefully the next day, making this a whole new ball game.
Michael D. Shear: Why don't we start with this prediction from Reading, Pa.
I suppose it's possible this happens, though the polls suggest otherwise, giving Sen. Clinton a modest lead in the state. Keep in mind, though, that polls have not always been right in this contest (*grin*).
But even if Sen. Obama wins Pennsylvania, does everyone think that Clinton gracefully steps aside the next day? Given the history of this race, I'm not sure anything can be predicted.
_______________________
Chicago: Is the Obama campaign confident that, should they win the nomination, they'll be able to bring in more money for the general election campaign by opting out of the public financing than by accepting? I know they have a lot of online and small-dollar donors, but even if they haven't maxed out yet, one would assume that at least some are maxed out because of their own personal finances, no?
Michael D. Shear: The money chase in this campaign is fascinating. Sen. McCain appears to have decided that he will take the $84 million that the federal government promises to anyone who decides to take public financing. Sen. Obama has already raised something like $240 million, making it appear that he could do much better than the $84 million if he rejects the public system.
As Chicago notes, one benefit for Obama is that many of his donors have not maxed out their contributions, which gives them flexibility. But even if they have, you have to assume that he will have a whole new donor pool to tap (the Clinton donors) if he wins the nomination.
An interesting question is whether Obama would feel pressure to accept public financing because of the kind of themes he has been talking about -- changing/reforming Washington. So far, he's been careful about leaving his options open after initially pledging to join the public system.
_______________________
Baltimore: Superdelegates for Obama: Michael, I heard over the weekend that former Sens. Sam Nunn and David Boren, both certifiably center-right Democrats, had announced they would support Obama. What further proof is needed that the race is in fact over, unless Mrs. Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 20 points or more?
washingtonpost.com: Obama Fights On Two Fronts (Post, April 19)
Michael D. Shear: Spoken like a true Obama supporter. I suppose Clinton supporters would offer as proof of a continuing battle her lead in Pennsylvania and her victories in some of the biggest states.
_______________________
South Bend, Ind.: How about some McCain vice presidential rumors? Who ya got?!
Michael D. Shear: There are a lot of them out there. Rob Portman, the former Office of Management and Budget director. Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota. Charlie Crist, the governor of Florida. Joe Lieberman, the independent senator from Connecticut (and McCain best friend). Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani -- former rivals all.
Which one will he pick? You know as well as I do. The buzz around Washington seems to have Portman on the top of the list right now, but we're probably months away from an announcement.
_______________________
Phillipsville: How much of a chilling effect is Bill Clinton having on the minds of uncommitted superdelegates? It seems to me that this is the "elephant in the room" issue for Democrats. While he was a popular figure a year ago, he has squandered that political capital and is such an albatross that he clearly is hurting Sen. Clinton and the party. Agree?
Michael D. Shear: I don't know if it's as clear as that. My sense is that Bill Clinton remains a powerful and popular figure in the Democratic party, and especially with the activists and elected officials who make up the superdelegates. Having said that, he's clearly been tarnished a bit by the uber-political nature of his activities during the past year. And one only has to think about Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama -- despite having been appointed to two cabinet spots by Bill Clinton -- to know that some of the former president's influence on these people has waned.
_______________________
Washington: Assuming the Democratic nomination doesn't suddenly end unexpectedly, how are both candidates going to handle picking a running mate? Kerry seemed very methodical in 2004 to make sure no one with excess baggage was put on the ticket, but Obama or Clinton might not have that time this go around. Also, how much pressure will there be to put the losing candidate in the No. 2 spot?
Michael D. Shear: The last primary is in June, which still gives both candidates plenty of time before the August convention, right? If neither concedes before the convention, then the VP pick will clearly be on a different schedule. But I would assume both would have begun the vetting process well before the convention starts even if that happens.
Would either of them put the other on the ticket in the number 2 spot? There would certainly be precedent and logic in that, especially in a year when both have created enormous excitement among supporters. Will it happen? Who knows.
_______________________
Vienna, Va.: There has been a lot of speculation about John McCain serving only one-term if he won. Given that he's not exactly a favorite of the movement conservatives, I can see why they would favor this, but has there been anything to suggest McCain would be willing to do this?
Michael D. Shear: McCain consistently talks about serving two full terms. But to do that, he would be nearly 80 when he left. It's a question that's sure to come up in the general election.
_______________________
St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Michael -- thank you for taking my question. I was very happy to see Sen. McCain's temperament get some coverage in your newspaper yesterday. In your estimation, is this something the voters will care about? How do you expect it be addressed in the campaign?
washingtonpost.com: McCain: A Question of Temperament (Post, April 20)
Michael D. Shear: Sen. McCain's temper has been a topic of discussion for years in Washington, especially during campaigns. As my colleague, Michael Leahy, reported yesterday, it remains an area of inquiry. Sen. McCain's top advisers reacted yesterday with anger, calling the story "99 percent fiction." But the story was not the first to document incidents which concern some people. Whether it will be something the voters broadly will care about is yet to be seen.
_______________________
Dryden, N.Y.: Do you think the press will question McCain about his "too clever by half" tax return dump? Everyone knows his wife makes the money. What is good for the Clintons...
Michael D. Shear: I do believe Sen. McCain will continue to get pressure to release more information from his wife's tax returns. Cindy McCain, who is the heiress to a beer distribution fortune, is indeed the source of most of the money that finances his lifestyle.
Having said that, McCain gets a bit of cover from the decision by Sen. John Kerry not to reveal his wife's tax returns four years ago. In that instance Teresa Heinz was also the source of most of Kerry's money.
_______________________
Louisville, Ky.: Why is there no story in the Post today about the huge New York Times story about the military analysts?
washingtonpost.com: Behind Analysts, the Pentagon's Hidden Hand (New York Times, April 20)
Michael D. Shear: Always good to read the entire paper. Howie Kurtz addresses the Times' very interesting story in his column on the front of style.
_______________________
washingtonpost.com: Retired Officers, Still Doing The Pentagon's Work on TV (Post, April 21)
_______________________
Anonymous: McCain's campaign hit back very hard on Michael Leahy's story; their reaction drew more attention to it. Why hit back so hard instead of just laughing it off?
Michael D. Shear: The McCain campaign -- and especially top adviser Mark Salter -- have a pattern of hitting back hard when anyone questions Sen. McCain's honor or word. I'm not surprised by Salter's response.
_______________________
Reston, Va.: We've seen Obama have problems winning over both working class whites and Latinos. Given how brutal the nomination fight has been, he also could have trouble with women, who just saw the first legitimate female candidate for president lose to a man with less experience (in terms of years in federal office). What plan beyond hoping they rally behind the party candidate does the campaign have to get these very important groups back into the fold -- especially when McCain can be a pretty appealing candidate, given his maverick image and support for comprehensive immigration reform (not that he wants to talk about that!)?
Michael D. Shear: This is a very good analysis of what Sen. Obama might face if he becomes the nominee. Polling suggests that some of Clinton's coalition might not support Obama enthusiastically if she does not win. That coalition, as Reston suggests, includes Latinos, working class whites and women.
But Obama's campaign believes that those concerns will fade once a general election starts. A discussion I had with our pollster, Jon Cohen, last week provides a bit of evidence that might be true. He noted that some people in our polls say they do not intend to support Obama if Clinton loses. But later in the poll, when asked who they will support between Obama and McCain, they say Obama. (The same is true when they are asked about Obama losing). You just never know what will be in the minds of voters.
_______________________
"Michael D. Shear: The McCain campaign -- and especially top adviser Mark Salter -- have a pattern of hitting back hard when anyone questions Sen. McCain's honor or word.": Mr. Salter better rest up then, he's going to very busy from now until November.
Michael D. Shear: Hmmm. Think this is going to be an interesting -- and hard hitting-- general election campaign? Strap on your seat belts, people.
_______________________
Washington: Does the fact that Minnesota Governor, Tim Pawlenty, is having a fundraiser in Washington tomorrow, have anything to do with the fact that he is meeting the D.C. elite as he prepares to be the vice presidential pick?
Michael D. Shear: Reading tea leaves is a wonderful Washington pastime.
_______________________
Re: McCain's Age: What are your thoughts on how McCain's age will play into the voters' decisions on who to support in the election?
Michael D. Shear: As I said before, you never know what's in the minds of voters. But I think this plays out in two ways -- (1) a potential concern about whether his age could inhibit his performance, and (2) a less specific contrast between McCain as someone from a past generation, especially if he's running against Sen. Obama.
_______________________
Idaho: I know The Post has mentioned it, but why isn't the news media making a much bigger deal (the day before the primary) that according to the Federal Election Commission filings, Clinton is broke? She started the month with more debts than cash on hand. Shouldn't Pennsylvania voters know this?
Michael D. Shear: The difference in money is striking. Sen. Obama has a lot more money than Sen. Clinton as this primary winds down. But we've also seen that money is not the only thing to consider. Think back to Gov. Mike Huckabee winning Iowa despite being outspent by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
_______________________
Fairfax, Va.:"Cindy McCain, who is the heiress to a beer distribution fortune, is indeed the source of most of the money that finances his lifestyle." Huh? What does "lifestyle" mean here? She's not funding his campaign, right? Are you saying she pays for his suits and haircuts and food and stuff like that?
Michael D. Shear: Good follow up question. What I meant was that her money is largely responsible for his 15-acre ranch in Sedona, Arizona -- which includes 4 single family homes -- and his other properties (like an apartment in DC). She is said to also have a private jet at her disposal, though McCain could not use that for campaigning -- he could use it for a family vacation.
_______________________
Arlington, Va.: I saw a poll that said a somewhat significant percentage of Americans thought John McCain was pro-choice. Obviously this is very wrong, but how much of an issue will the Democratic nominee make of abortion given this misconception about McCain's stance, and the fact that by all accounts the Supreme Court is 5-4 on upholding Roe (and John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg ain't exactly young)?
Michael D. Shear: This is interesting for two reasons.
First, it's unclear how much abortion will be an issue in the campaign. But with the court very closely split, it could resurface this year with a vengeance.
Second, it points out how much McCain has created an image of moderation, even if in some cases people think he's more liberal than he really is. It's all part of an effort I wrote about a few weeks ago -- McCain(tm). The Democrats will have to find a way to break through that brand if they want to win.
_______________________
Michael D. Shear: Ok everyone. That's about all the time we have. Let's do it again soon.
Mike
_______________________
Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.



