Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Michael D. Shear was online Wednesday, April 30 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Michael Shear: Hey everyone. At the moment, I'm in a bus somewhere in Allentown, Pa., with the McCain campaign. So let's see how long my battery lasts. Bring on the questions!

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Austin, Texas: Any guess as to how likely it is that Obama's public divorce from Wright will cause Wright to come out with some sort of public response? Obama seems pretty exposed to a nasty public fight between himself and Wright. His comments yesterday seem to be an implicit slide back into the "I didn't know" defense, and if Wright comes out and says something like "Obama knew what my church was like this the whole time," Obama really could be in some trouble.

Michael Shear: I figured that Rev. Wright might be topic No. 1 today, so let's start here.

I don't cover Sen. Obama full-time, but my sense is that he was in a tough place, politically, on this. It would have been very difficult to let Rev. Wright's comments stand without a forceful response. But as this question suggests, his forceful condemnation of Wright has the potential to make Wright more angry, and could extend the story further.

I guess we'll have to see what happens.

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Prescott, Ariz.: What does McCain think he is accomplishing by re-releasing Bush's health care plan? He also recycled Bush tax plan and Social Security plan, and we know how they agree about Iraq. Does he really think running as Bush III is a viable campaign strategy?

Michael Shear: The McCain campaign would argue that his plan goes beyond what Bush has proposed (though, as I said in my story, the central piece was very similar). They also would say McCain is more serious than Bush in making it happen.

Broadly, though, they are not eager to be tied to Bush. The current president has very, very low approval ratings, and many of his policies are particularly unpopular among swing voters -- moderates and independents -- who will be critical to a McCain victory in the fall.

McCain's aides do not believe they can win this race with a "Rove Strategy" that turns out Republicans to get a 51 percent victory. As a result, they will need to get some Democrats and independents -- and being compared to Bush is never good for that.

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Reston, Va.: All right, since you're covering McCain, what are you hearing on vice president? Is it still Pawlenty's to lose? Has Romney's strong outreach since dropping out helped his case, a la John Edwards in 2004? Why aren't we hearing more about Sen. John Thune?

Michael Shear: There are lots of names floating around out there. Romney is clearly on the list. Pawlenty is often mentioned. I've not heard Thune's name mentioned for veep.

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Bangor, Maine: I'm a Republican. Three months ago, Hillary was "inevitable." She'd waltz to her coronation and she'd have a supine Democratic Congress and adoring media serving at her feet. One month ago, Obama charged in on his white horse, an agent of change and hope. He'd ride triumphantly to victory at the head of a proud post-partisan parade and rule as a new kind of leader with an adoring media at his feet.

Today, Hillary is an unlikable afterthought and Obama is a closet anti-American bigot, and above-the-fray John McCain is headed for the White House. When you write the history of this unbelievable race, how do you explain how the Democrats squandered sure victory given a historically unpopular sitting president, unpopular war, dying economy and exploding gas prices? Blame "Swift-Boating" again?

Michael Shear: Hey Bangor. I'm not sure I agree with all of your characterizations, but your overall point is exactly right: This campaign has had many twists and turns. I covered the Republican field from the beginning, and I can tell you it never was clear to me what was going to happen.

I would caution, however, that your conclusion might be a bit premature. McCain does indeed seem to be taking good advantage of this time, and the Democrats are struggling -- but six months is a long time, and I wouldn't write the Democrats off yet. As you suggest, there are lots of reasons to think McCain will have a rough time in the general election.

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Ferguson, Mo.: Morning, Michael. As a strong Obama supporter I hate to ask this, but do you think this latest brouhaha regarding Rev. Wright may simply be a confirmation that my man is not quite ready? He's been in politics for what, eight years? In the Senate four (half of that on the road)? He really is a relative newcomer. Maybe it wouldn't be so bad if Hillary snatches the nomination, which would give Barack four or eight years to get more seasoned. Your thoughts? Thanks.

Michael Shear: The answer to this question might well determine Obama's future. But not by me. By people who are his supporters. If the Wright situation shakes the faith of his supporters -- as it appears to have shaken Ferguson's faith -- then he may well be in trouble.

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Belfast, Maine: Are the McCain people talking about how their strategies might differ depending on who their opponent will be?

Michael Shear: They're not talking about it that much, but they are definitely preparing for both possibilities.

My sense from their public statements, and some private conversations, is that they believe an Obama victory in the primary is more likely. Most of the comments McCain has made have been aimed at Obama, not Clinton.

But I believe there are people in McCain's operation and at the Republican National Committee that are thinking about how they would run against Clinton, too. Not only would the issues be different, but there would be a different political map. States that might be in play if Obama is the nominee would not if Clinton wins.

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New York: Oooh! You're on the "Straight-Talk Express," are you? Perfect. Hoping you can tell me when the press will stop pretending to be children about McCain's financial info release? There's only one reason for a politician to make sure that all his assets are in his wife's name: it's to make sure that no one knows anything about his assets. It's not as if McCain is the first politician to try this, after all. Are you and others on that bus really going to let him get away with this?

Michael Shear: Actually, at the moment, I'm on a charter bus with a bunch of other reporters, not on the Straight Talk with McCain. But yes, I agree that we should continue to press McCain to release his wife's tax returns. The campaign claims they are following a precedent that was set by John Kerry, who also declined to release the records of his wife during the 2004 campaign. But I would argue that McCain -- who after all has made his reputation by pushing for financial disclosure -- should be held to a higher, tougher standard on this.

Just for you, New York, I will ask the question of him when I get on the Straight Talk later this afternoon.

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Salinas, Calif.: Hi Michael. Isn't it entirely possible that Rev. Wright has figured that the only way he could put enough daylight between himself and Sen. Obama was to stage the recent media assault and give his candidate the opportunity to denounce him? Sen. Obama gets the push-off toward the nomination from the reverend with a renewed sense of righteous indignation and enough time (and multiple news cycles) to clear the slate for the national election; Rev. Wright doesn't have to renounce his views and his congregation doesn't have to depose him.

All of the above is operative, of course, only if Obama wins. A huge gamble, no doubt, but the Republican attack machine (on behalf of the McCain campaign) surely would have hammered Obama September through November for his continued ties to Rev. Wright (let's not even talk about what Sen. Clinton would have had in store for him between now and the Democratic convention in August). Crazy?

Michael Shear: Interesting theory, Salinas. Not sure I have any idea what's in Rev. Wright's head on this.

Anyone have any other theories?

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Washington: President Bush and other Republicans have been fond of saying they'll listen to the generals and military leaders on questions of bringing the troops home, etc., but why don't we hear similar statements in regard to the economy? Why not defer to economists on whether a certain policy is wise or prudent?

Michael Shear: Actually, I believe McCain did offer a list of economists and other advisers once during a response to an attack by former Gov. Romney during the primaries. The danger of that kind of answer, of course, is that the candidate can seem to be deferring judgment too much. Americans want presidential candidates who have their own opinions, I think

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Denver: Could McCain afford his own health care plan? How much would health insurance for a 71-year-old man with a history of skin cancer cost, provided he could get it at all? Somehow I don't think his $5,000 tax credit would cover it. Isn't it a little hypocritical for a guy who has had government-funded health care his whole life to tell the rest of us the free market is the answer?

By the way, my stepdad is one of those high-risk people with a last-resort, state-subsidized plan McCain thinks is the answer for pre-existing conditions. He had bypass surgery, so no private insurer would cover him. He's subscribing to Cover Colorado -- at a premium for an individual of $700 per month, or $8,500 a year. So please tell me how someone on a fixed income, living month-to-month, is going to pay that much up front, then wait around for a refund check from the IRS?

washingtonpost.com: McCain Offers Market-Based Health Plan (Post, April 30)

Michael Shear: There are clearly many questions about Sen. McCain's health care plan and not a lot of answers, yet. I can promise you that reporters are all eager for the campaign to begin answering some of these detailed questions about how the plan would work.

For now, what we get from the campaign is a discussion of basic principles that will guide him on this issue and a comment that it's still early in the campaign. I believe McCain will be forced to go into greater detail as we get closer to the campaign.

As to the specifics, it's not clear what would happen in McCain's case. Aides seem to suggest that since he has continuous coverage from his "employer" he would have no problem getting coverage. And as to your stepdad, the McCain folks concede that there are many such "GAP" plans that do not work well now. They insist that they will structure plans that do work.

Keep tuned in. We will continue to press McCain on this critical issue.

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Rolla, Mo.: Unlike Ferguson, a real Obama supporter here (no "strong" Obama supporter would suggest that he would benefit from four or eight more years seasoning in the U.S. Senate). Michael, wasn't Obama in a no-win situation here? While the media seem to applaud his statements from yesterday, it all seemed to come with the caveat "but it was too late..."

Michael Shear: I'm guessing then, that Rolla has not lost faith in Obama. Yes, as I said before, I think yesterday was a very tough political moment for Obama.

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Re: Salinas: My theory: Wright is both crazy and selfish: Crazy to actually believe that white Americans created HIV to kill blacks -- that's dangerously delusional -- and selfish to happily seize center stage and rant when he could have kept quiet. He could have mouthed platitudes but he's combative -- and refuses to give an inch. I don't think there's some grand plan here, because the crazy stuff about HIV, drugs, Israel, Libya, etc., are so far off in the lunatic fringe that it'll be repeated ad nauseam no matter what else he says. Obama put himself in a box with his "I can't disown him" stuff; now he's gotta live with it. Disowning him now, when we have no new information, just looks like what it is: political expediency.

Michael Shear: Another theory.

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Nashville, Tenn.: What's with the sexist request for John McCain to release his wife's tax returns? They're his wife's returns; ask her if you have a question. Maybe I am offended more by the phrasing than by the intent, but everyone seems to adopt that weird locution without a thought. You know, he couldn't release her records anyway.

Michael Shear: Point taken, Nashville. I think the issue here is a wording one. The "McCain Campaign" is the one that has been making these decisions public on behalf of both Sen. McCain and his wife, but of course it is Cindy McCain who makes the decision about her own taxes. I think when people talk about "McCain" releasing the taxes, they mean the campaign.

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Washington: Hi Michael. Just for your information, Sen. Kerry actually released the first two pages of his wife's tax returns in 2004. The McCains have refused to do that.

Michael Shear: See, readers are always smarter than reporters. This is something I didn't know.

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Austin, Texas: Are the developments of the last few days (including Rev. Wright and the governor's endorsement of Hillary) enough to change, even slightly, the dynamic in North Carolina? And what happens if Hillary manages to keep it close there? One consequence that I see is that Hillary's position in the popular vote is bolstered. I imagine that superdelegates (or just ordinary Democratic voters) also may be unnerved. Could that be enough to push Hillary toward the nomination?

Michael Shear: Given the expectation that Sen. Obama will win North Carolina handily, I would think it would be very bad for him if he loses or just barely squeaks by. But having said that, there's still the issue of the delegate and popular vote lead, and I do not believe she can take that from him simply with a victory there.

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San Jose, Calif.: Obama told the Chicago Tribune that Wright was his sounding board for truth: "What I value most about Pastor Wright is not his day-to-day political advice. He's much more of a sounding board for me to make sure that I am speaking as truthfully about what I believe as possible and that I'm not losing myself in some of the hype and hoopla and stress that's involved in national politics." Now Wright tells us that Obama is not speaking truthfully. Any reason we shouldn't believe him? Obama told us we should, right?

washingtonpost.com: Pastor inspires Obama's 'audacity' (Chicago Tribune, Jan. 21, 2007)

Michael Shear: I think this is a fundamental question that people are going to have to sort out for themselves. How close was Obama to Wright? How much do people believe Obama's claim that the Wright he knew and clearly admired was a different person than the one we've all seen this weekend?

Obama's future may depend on how people answer those questions for themselves.

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Michael Shear: Okay folks, gotta run. Have a good week, and let's do this again soon. Thanks for all the great questions.

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