Horse Racing

Live from Louisville, horse racing handicapper Liam Durbin of e-ponies.com was online Friday, May 2 at noon ET to discuss favorite Big Brown and the rest of the entrants in the Kentucky Derby.

The transcript follows.

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Liam Durbin: First of all, thanks to Washingtonpost.com for having me. This is always a pleasure to do this each year around Derby time. This year is a wild one! So let's get started.

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Cincinnati: Two questions -- why did Big Brown chose the 20 hole when there were other options? I feel if he gets pushed outside 7 or 8 wide his race will be done. Am I wrong here?

How is Pyro a top 5 horse here when he finished 6th in his last race, and don't give the synthetic field answer.

Liam Durbin: I think the choice of the 20 hole was a combination of arrogance and risk reduction. Arrogance says, "All I need is a clear path and my horse will wire the field." Risk aversion says, "I'd rather deal with the extra yards than the possibility of getting bruised and battered in the first hundred yards of the race and being taken out of it entirely." Keep in mind this horse is green. He may not like all the traffic. Might throw in the towel.

On Pyro, everyone has gotten accustomed to throwing out the Bluegrass. Of all the artificial surfaces in the country it has the reputation for producing crazy results. So sorry, but there's your synthetic track answer. I should also add that most handicappers will forgive one race. That is a big one to forgive, but back to polytrack....

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Laurel, Md.: Can you tell me more about who are the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks today? The fillies are so sidelined under the grandeur of Derby weekend, that I can't find any information on it!

Thanks!

Liam Durbin: Morning line favorite is Eight Belles, but most people are expecting her to scratch and run in the Derby, where she is also entered. Behind her, the morning line favorite is Proud Spell at 7:2, followed by Country Star at 4:1. On my website, we have a poll going and Country Star is the favorite in that poll. Proud Spell will probably lead early and try to wire it. Country Star is a rising star. She comes in off a dull effort but I think she will rebound.

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Pittsburgh: Does Eight Belles merit serious consideration? Love Jones as a trainer, and like the form on dirt and the works. But worried about the jockey, despite the five pound weight advantage. Worthy of including on exacta, trifecta tix?

Liam Durbin: I don't think so, but the last time I went on record and said "No way" was a horse called Giacomo.

My computer program did not even pick Eight Belles to win the Oaks, and that is against a smaller field, of fillies. Putting her up against the boys makes no sense. She is a big horse and is bred to run a long way, but I think there are much better horses in the race and she is not proven against colts. Most fillies entered in the Derby have taken on colts at least once and done well enough to consider her to have a shot.

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Arlington, Va.: How does this year's field stack up to recent years'? Does Big Brown have a legit shot at the Triple Crown?

Liam Durbin: I'll say this about Big Brown. If he can win the Derby from that outisde post, there is no reason he should not win the Triple Crown. That said, I do not think he will win the Derby from that outside post. Other Derby horses have won from the outside, but they were all stalkers or big closers. Big Brown will want the lead and he is going to have to expend a lot of energy to get to the lead before the first turn.

The last time a big favorite, speedy type, drew an outside post was Bellamy Road. Spanish Chestnut just inside his post position made sure he went wide on he first turn. It was over before he even got to the third turn.

I'd love to see a Triple Crown winner, so part of me hopes Big Brown can do it. I'm just saying he has a lot to overcome on Saturday.

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Yorkville, Ill.:

Liam,

What's your perfecta and exacta wagers?

Liam Durbin: I think this year is a great one to be speculative and try to hit a bomb. So I will box the following: Z Fortune, Denis of Cork, Pyro, and Smooth Air.

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RE: why did Big Brown chose the 20 hole when there were other options?: Wait, he had other options? I assumed when I saw he got the 20 spot that they had to choose last! What was left?

Liam Durbin: At the time he made his choice (the trainer, not the horse) there were five spots open: 1,2,18,19,20.

I would have taken the 2 hole. You need a bit of room to avoid the rail, so the 1 is dangerous. But this is a speed horse. He should get a jump and get going.

But I should add, these trainers know what they are doing and they know their horses. I'm just armchair quarterbacking. If he wins, he's brilliant. If he loses, he's an idiot. That's racing.

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Alexandria, Virginia: Liam,

Many reviewers have said that the best description of what goes on at Churchill Downs continues to be Hunter Thompson's "The Kentucky Derby Is Decadent And Depraved." Have you read this story and how accurate do you think it is?

Many thanks!

Liam Durbin: Many reviewers? I'll have to take your word for that.

This Q&A reminds me of what happened when members of Lynyrd Skynyrd commented on Neil Young's "Southern Man." You are kind of asking the wrong guy here. I got engaged at the Derby, celebrated my 10th wedding anniversary there, host web chats about the Derby, own a web site on horseracing, enjoy an annual pilgrammage there each year, and one of my children was conceived there (I made up that one).

Shorter answer - I have not read his comments, but I bet I would not agree.

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Seven Corners, Va.: Thanks for doing this chat. Andy Beyer went with: 1. Pyro. 2. Z Fortune. 3. Gayego. Not surprisingly, he likes the horses with speed figures of over 100. What is your opinion of his picks? Thanks.

Liam Durbin: As a rule, Andy and I seldom agree on a horse. The aforementioned Bellamy Road was his choice when I saw the pace scenario killing his chances. I wish I could say I had made a contribution to racing like Andy has. But if that were true, I'd be wed to the philosophy wouldn't I? So it is no surprise Andy goes with the big Beyer figures.

For what it is worth, I've bet against my computer program a couple of times in recent Derby history. It cost me once (Barbaro). I'm doing it again this year and I'll be on Z Fortune. So I guess Andy and I agree on that horse. I'm not a Pyro fan.

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I'd love to see a Triple Crown winner: Not me. At least not until we've got a horse I think really deserves it. Although I suppose you can argue that if they do it, they deserve it. But you can also argue that if the field isn't tough, it's not that great of an accomplishment. Does Big Brown rate up their with Secretariat?

I would have liked to see Afleet Alex get it.

Liam Durbin: This year's field is a little soft IMHO. That gives Big Brown a better shot. But even with that, his post position draw was awful. Trainers will downplay its importance but it matters. If he can win the Derby, the fields for the other two legs will be that much smaller because he will have proven something really significant. If he wins Saturday, that will be the hardest leg. If he then goes on to win it all, I think he belongs in the ranks of those other Triple Crown winners.

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Bethesda, Md.: What do you think is the single most important element in Derby? Speed seems to be most mentioned, but I'm thinking the ability to rate might be more important

Liam Durbin: Pace. Pace. Pace.

War Emblem needed speed and he stole the race. Giacomo was the benefactor of a huge pace collapse. He's a slow plodder who got handed the race (followed by another big closer named Closing Argument). Most Derby's are won by either a horse that can rate or can come from way back (like Grindstone and Street Sense). But one approach to the application of speed does not fit all. It depends on who is in the race with you.

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So it is no surprise Andy goes with the big Beyer figures. : Yes, it's no surprise that Andrew Beyer respects those Beyer figures.

Liam Durbin: Yes, I've asked Andy to consider bailing on his world famous, time tested, Beyer speed figures and going with my computer figures but he did not warm up to the idea at all.

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Richardson, Tex.: Are there any stax showing whether it is easier for a horse to go from dirt to polytrack or from polytrack to dirt? If all those horses in the bluegrass who ran poorly, including pyro, come back strong on dirt in the derby, will this affect the bluegrass as a major derby prep race?

Liam Durbin: Not that I'm aware of. I think the difference between artificial and dirt is a bit overblown based on data I've collected. My computer program seems to do about the same on either one. With several hundred data points, win percent and in the money percent is virtually identical. Also, performance of my computer's top speed score is pretty much the same on either surface.

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Silver Spring: How do you see the race unfolding? If Big Brown gets the front, who will press him? And will closers like Pyro -- who you profess not to like -- have a shot?

Liam Durbin: I think Big Brown will get to the front, but he will be at least 3 wide on the first turn. Cool Coal Man will have the luxury of taking a much shorter path to the front than BB, so those two will eventually be the lead pair. Gayego and Recapturetheglory will also be forwardly placed.

If Big Brown falters in the stretch, which I'm predicting he will, there should be a mad rush to the wire, and the big closers like Pyro (true, don't like) and Denis of Cork (I like) will have a shot.

If Big Brown is a freak and wires it, there will still be lots of tired horses in the stretch that the closing types will pass on their way to second and third place money.

The pace should be pretty strong, but not idiotic like the Spanish Chestnut fractions. That's how I see it.

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Laurel: Since so many of the winter preps are run at traditionally speed-favoring Gulfstream and Santa Anita, and none of the entrants has gone 1.25 before; I often like to go with a horse that won a prestigious stake in the summer but hasn't done anything since, because he's not bred for speed.

Anyone like that this time?

Liam Durbin: Very thoughtful question. Had to think about it.

I don't know of any horses that would take large chunks of time off. I've never even seen that done as a prep style, let alone in a horse that hit the board in the Derby.

If you mean are there horses that looked way better in the summer of their 2yo season and have looked dull since, there are several that might qualify. But most of these guys don't start their 2yo seasons until August or September. Lots of tracks start to cool down in September.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks again to washingtonpost.com and to all those who joined in for this chat. I hope it was helpful. Good luck tomorrow!

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