Live Analysis: Indiana, North Carolina Primary Returns

Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Associate Editor
Tuesday, May 6, 2008 8:00 PM

Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, May 6 at 8 p.m. ET to break down the returns from Indiana and North Carolina as they're announced, and to examine what they mean for the candidates in the 2008 presidential primaries.

The transcript follows.

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Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening. Isn't it amazing that we're still doing this, and it's May? We started after Iowa back in the dead of winter, and I remember predicting that night that we would have to wait a long time -- until Feb. 6 -- to know who the Democratic nominee would be. Hah!

Tonight we appear to have a big Obama win in North Carolina and a close race in Indiana. We have exit polls from Indiana that suggest a small Clinton lead, but I'm thinking that no pollsters know who is voting there (Republicans and independents can vote in the Democratic primary), so I'm thinking we should wait for, uh, votes.

Give us your ideas, your questions, your insights. We'll be here for a couple of hours...

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South Bend, Ind.: Many many people have voted early or with absentee ballots. What happens to those votes in the counting tonight -- are those votes included? Thanks.

Robert G. Kaiser: Sure, but I confess I don't know how Indiana officials do this. Usually the early and absentee votes are counted with all the rest.

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Fairfax, Va.: The Clinton camp continues to make noise about seating the Michigan and Florida delegations. What are the odds the Democratic committee in charge of that would reverse its own decision and allow their seating? Apparently its membership does tilt pro-Clinton.

Robert G. Kaiser: There is no chance that the delegations selected in those two primaries will be seated as-is. Gov. Dean was on MSNBC tonight saying a compromise of some kind was a distinct possibility, which makes sense, because the Democrats have no interest in alienating voters in these two big states. But Dean also said that any compromise would have to be accepted by "the two campaigns." That means neither will get a meaningful advantage from the ultimate resolution. I think you can bank on that.

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Los Angeles: Whom did you vote for? My guess is Obama.

Robert G. Kaiser: I wonder if Los Angeles knows the answer to every question she/he asks in advance? The answer might be yes!

I am a registered independent in Washington. I could not and did not vote in our primary here.

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Silver Spring, Md.: It seems like a lot of the places that will favor Obama (Gary, Indianapolis, maybe South Bend and Evansville) haven't reported any results yet. Do you think the spread between the two candidates will tighten up?

Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, it definitely will tighten up.

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Lismore, New South Wales, Australia: How long before the Indiana urban results catch up enough to give a clear read? 70 percent? 80 percent?)

Robert G. Kaiser: We expect very full results by 9:30 p.m. EDT, or New York Time. Hope you can figure out what that means in New South Wales!

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Baltimore: Haven't exit polls consistently shown Obama doing better than he does in actual voting? What's up with that? And shouldn't that make folks a little more cautious?

Robert G. Kaiser: I'm not certain this has been true every time. It was true in Pennsylvania and Ohio. What's up with that? Your guess is as good as mine. Mine is that some white people don't admit that they voted against the black candidate. I cannot prove it.

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Alexandria, Va.: I am an Obama supporter, but I don't understand how North Carolina -- with 1 percent of the precincts in -- has been called for Obama but Indiana with 36 percent in has not been called for Clinton. What is the thinking behind this? Do people think Obama can catch up in Indiana? Has Clinton been written off in North Carolina?

Robert G. Kaiser: This is exit-poll magic. The exit polls in North Carolina, I can tell you, suggest a very big Obama victory. The exit polls in Indiana suggest a much closer contest. The exit polls govern the news organizations' willingness to make predictions. But stay tuned, in a couple of hours we'll know all we need to know, I think.

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Fairfax, Va.: So, did you ever think back on Super Tuesday that you'd be coming back for another chat about the Democratic Primary in early May?

Robert G. Kaiser: No!

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Majuro, Marshall Islands: As I follow the election from afar, I've been wondering why the media consistently frame the election demographics and results in terms of Obama's "inability" to win white working-class votes, implying that victories in places like North Carolina are mainly because of high turnout among black voters who chose him at a rate of 90 percent. Couldn't the media frame the discussion in the exact opposite way, such as Clinton's continuing inability to win over black voters, and her victories being only because of strong support from white working-class voters?

Robert G. Kaiser: Maybe your distance is an advantage! This is a wise comment. And I'd add another wrinkle: The fact that black voters are voting for Obama in large numbers, or that some whites are favoring Clinton, says nothing about what will happen in November.

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Fresno, Calif.: With Obama "winning" North Carolina and Indiana leaning towards Clinton, it inevitably comes down to her margin. Is winning 50.0001 percent good enough to keep her in the race? If not, what margin of victory (or loss) realistically would push her out? How does she manage the expectations game now? What would it take for her to leave?

Robert G. Kaiser: Now think about this question: How could one guy (me) possibly answer it accurately?

This is politics, not algebra. The key question is, and has been for weeks: what will professionals and elected officials in the Democratic Party -- the superdelegates -- decide when they contemplate who would make the most effective person at the top of the ticket in November? That's all that matters.

The Clinton camp will look for a silver lining in every cloud, and we shouldn't be surprised by that. It doesn't mean, however, that any of those clouds have any silver inside.

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Kansas City, Mo.: How unreal is it to think that the Democratic candidate who does not make it to the Democratic Party's nomination might then decide to part from the Democratic Party to still appear as a presidential candidate in the November elections?

Robert G. Kaiser: 100 percent unreal.

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Salem, Mass.: Seems to me the big question tonight was whether the Rev. Wright flap would sink Obama's chances to be the Democratic nominee. The answer, based on the early results in North Carolina, appears to be "no." Do you agree with either or both propositions?

Robert G. Kaiser: I agree with the "no." I think myself that the Wright flap has been overplayed by the news media, which loves this kind of thing.

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San Jose, Calif.: What happens if you map the way the votes divide onto the demographics of each state? What do you wind up with in terms of the electoral college numbers? It seems like that's what the Democratic Party would be looking at to try to find which candidate is more likely to win in November.

Robert G. Kaiser: Not sure I understand your question, but as I said a moment ago, who is more likely to win in November is the key question for superdelegates.

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Bethesda, Md.: Why are the superdelegates being so skittish about declaring? Once they do, it will be easy to resolve the Florida-Michigan mess, not to mention it will let Obama start his campaign against McCain. Don't they realize how much damage they're doing by waiting?

Robert G. Kaiser: Why do you think they are skittish? I don't see it. They're being careful, which makes sense, but they steadily have been announcing their decisions for weeks.

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Washington: Bob, I want your job. The latest Post numbers indicate a 30 percent win for Obama in North Carolina, and I think he'll squeak out a win in Indiana, because Gary hasn't reported, and being so close to his base I expect Gary to turn out heavily and go overwhelmingly for Obama. If he sweeps, is it over? Does that give superdelegates the excuse to come out for Obama and effectively end this in advance of the West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico primaries (all of which should go for Clinton)? Seems to me, given the number and background of the people who have come out against her, she needs a compelling case to get superdelegate support -- and a sweep tonight would make that impossible (not to mention probably dry up her contributions).

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. A sweep would be powerful for Obama, but we have no basis yet to predict it. CBS just called Indiana for Hillary. So let's hold off...

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Robert G. Kaiser: Flash! My colleague Chris Hopkins has just informed me that 9:30 p.m. in the Eastern U.S. is 11:30 a.m. tomorrow, Wednesday, in New South Wales. (See earlier question for explanation...)

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Washington: Bob, I am black, and I read a lot of black blogs. Do you? The sense I get is that blacks are really bitter about the direction of the Clinton campaign. Do you think, in the now increasingly unlikely event of a Clinton nomination (and assuming she find some black figurehead to run as vice president) that blacks will stay home? Or will they hold their nose and vote Democratic in the general election?

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for the post. I don't read a lot of blogs, black or white or red -- I'm still hooked on newspapers. I'm old. But I've read good stories in The Post and elsewhere reporting on the attitudes you describe, and my own black friends and colleagues tell me about them too. I think they're real, but I don't think it's possible to predict today how people of any color or persuasion will be thinking in early November. So much can happen between now and then.

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Oak Park, Mich.: Re: Why the press is making such a big deal out of Obama's inability to win working-class Midwestern voters, I am all in favor of a good press-bashing session -- but in this case it is because working-class whites in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to decide this general election. African Americans will not switch over to the Republican side, and even if many of them stay home it is not likely to make a big difference in the general election. On the other hand, Democrats need to win uneducated whites in Middle America if they want to win the general.

Robert G. Kaiser: Not sure you're right about that. No Democratic candidate in modern times has won a majority of the white working-class vote. Now not too many have won, either, but do you really think McCain has a good chance to win Michigan, no matter who the Democrat is? I do not.

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Arlington, Va.: Which Democrats are secretly hoping for a John McCain victory in 2008, so they have a shot in 2012?

Robert G. Kaiser: Only stupid ones. Who said "a week is eternity in politics"? 2012 might as well be in the next millennium. It would be really foolish to bet heavily on anything on that time frame.

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Bethesda, Md.: If Indiana is an open primary and there is a lot of crossover Republican vote for Clinton, does that mean that she would not get those Indiana votes in the general election? Does that also apply to other states with open primaries?

Robert G. Kaiser: How would we know that?

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Kobe, Japan: Mr. Kaiser, thanks for your analysis. Is it over yet? Can Clinton's camp work it out so that she can become the vice presidential nominee? It is time.

Robert G. Kaiser: It's not over. I don't think she will be the vice presidential candidate if Obama is the candidate. I think he very well might be the vice presidential candidate if she is the nominee. Just a guess.

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Washington: When was the last time there was a legitimate surprise in the results? It seems, based on demographics or momentum or whatever, that we always can tell with reasonable certainty which candidate is going to win the primaries.

Robert G. Kaiser: Well there was a big surprise in New Hampshire,as I recall. Virginia was a very big surprise for me. Wisconsin was a smaller one. North Carolina tonight could qualify as a surprise if indeed Obama wins a double-digit victory, when the Clinton camp was claiming big momentum in their direction last week.

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Westerly, R.I.: Do you feel that if Clinton wins, Obama supporter will boycott the presidential election in November? What about Clinton supporters -- do you feel they too will not vote in November if their candidate loses in the primary? I definitely am pro-Clinton and we are medium to low income without health insurance because we are self-employed. It seems that those in a similar situation as me are pro-Clinton; I am just wondering how I will feel about voting for Obama if Clinton loses.

I am almost scared for this country if a Republican wins. After Bush was elected, we lost so much. We were doing well, both owning service businesses, and when Bush won more than half our clients canceled their services because they were not certain about the war and economy. Just trying to get the gist.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for your good post. I suspect your views are quite typical. I have thought all year -- and said here often -- that in every conceivable way, the terrain this year favors Democrats. The polls we see today about who will favor whom in November are, not to put to fine a point on it, meaningless. It sounds to me that you could bring yourself to vote for Obama over McCain, and I think a lot of Obama backers, most indeed, would vote for Clinton over McCain.

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Juneau, Alaska: I'm not saying it's a big story, but I think it's notable that 20 percent of the Republican voters are willing to make the effort to vote just to say no to McCain, their nominee. Any thoughts?

Robert G. Kaiser: I'm not sure what number you are using, but I agree with you that the persistent evidence of Republican discomfort with McCain is significant. The numbers of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the country have fallen dramatically since 2004. McCain can't hope to win in November without very strong support from the Republican base.

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Washington: Thanks for answering my question. I'm really interested in what you think (as Mike Wilbon said, there are opinions, and then there are informed opinions). Bob Graham for vice president with Obama? He also was right on Iraq, he placates Floridians who supported Hillary and puts that state into play, and he's got loads of experience (Obama's weak point) -- plus I can't think of anyone more respected.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. Bob Graham is an interesting idea. Is his health good now? I hope so. But honestly, I have no informed guess about who the vice president might be, Republican or Democrat. Sorry.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Simply, as much as we try to say race isn't part of the undercurrent of this whole process between Obama and Clinton, just based by the results of late, isn't it still and hasn't it always been about that?

Robert G. Kaiser: No. Race has been a factor, sure, for some voters -- but, as the exit polls tonight remind us, lots of white people have backed Obama. Young white people have supported him strongly, more than they have supported Hillary. Race always is complicated.

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Washington: I personally am appalled by the way mainstream media (especially news channels) have spun the Wright controversy this primary season. What are you thoughts on the behavior of mainstream media, and "demonizing" one candidate or another?

Robert G. Kaiser: I think the media, particularly TV reporters and producers, want to fit this campaign into a familiar shape, to make it look like campaigns of the past. Print journalists do this too. The New York Times has a piece I thought quite silly suggesting a comparison to 1988. 1988 was a different America, I think. And this is obviously a unique election in many ways, beginning with the number of people who are participating in the primaries.

This is not a great period in the history of the American news media. Len Downie, editor of The Post, and I wrote a book about this a few years ago, "The News About the News." Still in print!

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Tempe, Ariz.: Hi Bob. Am I the only Democrat who actually thinks it's a good thing that so many Clinton supporters are saying they wouldn't vote for Obama in the general and vice versa? Clearly a big chunk of these people -- though they are probably very emotionally invested right now (as I am!) -- will come around and realize that they prefer either Democrat to McCain. So if both Democrats are pretty much tied with McCain in national polls, even with so many Democrats saying they refuse to vote for the other Democrat, shouldn't we expect a huge bump once we've settled on a nominee?

I've heard this likened to a dessert preference -- like we're being asked to choose between cheesecake and cookies. I love cheesecake and always will choose it over cookies and might even talk about how cookies are awful because cheesecake is so much better ... but in November, when I'm asked to choose between cookies and Brussels sprouts (aka McCain), I know I'll take the cookie.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for this. I liked it.

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Richmond, Va.: I am a 40-year-old white man from North Carolina originally. I am so proud of my state. They showed that the smear machine does not always work. By the way, I am a white guy fed up with the Clinton smear machine. It isn't just African Americans.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting.

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Baltimore County, Md.: Just for curiosity's sake, what is the percentage of minority (black) voters as total of the entire electorate? In which states will this percentage be the deciding factor as to where electoral votes end up in the general election? Finally, if Obama loses the white vote -- as evidenced in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere -- can he win the general anyway?

Only in America can the party whose incumbent has a favorability rating of about 29 percent still win the next election because the opponent is inept. If Obama is the candidate and loses (as I suspect he will) then I hope the entire Democratic Party infrastructure undergoes Freudian Analysis to see why they doom themselves (and the rest of us) to failure.

Robert G. Kaiser: So you think race is the whole game? There is no evidence of that that I am aware of.

Can you point to a case where the party whose president had a 29 percent approval rating won the next election?

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Richmond, Va.: I only get C-SPAN2 here for primary coverage. They are making it sound as though the Indiana primary is wrapped up for Hillary. I know CBS called it a bit ago. Is that it? Can I turn off the TV now, or does Obama still have a chance to eke out a win?

Robert G. Kaiser: MSNBC just explained why Obama still has a chance -- we have to get results from Indianapolis and Gary. So sit tight for a while.

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Alexandria, Va.: Care to hazard a guess about who is on John McCain's shortlist? Come on, this is the Internet -- idle speculation is sort of a requirement!

Robert G. Kaiser: No, this is washingtonpost.com, and we don't mess around (too much).

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Palo Alto, Calif.: Would it be reasonable to say -- as David Brooks has -- that demographics are the issue in this race, not policy?

Robert G. Kaiser: You know, I think it's neither. I think we're seeing fault lines among Democrats about the Clintons and their approach to running for president.

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Cabin John, Md.: You say, "in a couple of hours we'll know" -- how long are you planning to stay with us on this chat?

Robert G. Kaiser: Probably until 10 p.m., maybe a little earlier if we get an Indiana result.

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Washington: With 65 percent in, Clinton's Indiana lead is down to 6 percent, about 69,000. Polls were open late in Northwest Indiana by judicial order, so that's one reason why Gary and Hammond aren't in. CBS may have called it for Clinton, but I'll stand by my call of a narrow win for Obama, based on huge turnout and overwhelming support in Gary, his backyard.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.

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Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia: Has anyone done the calculation of the total number who voted for Republicans in primaries and the total of votes for Democrats in the primaries? Seems to me that there are always significantly more Democratic voters than Republican voters in the primaries so far this year.

Robert G. Kaiser: Good point. Yes, it is two-to-one nearly, many more Democrats than Republicans.

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Minneapolis: Hi Robert -- thank you for taking my question. The possibility of a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket, which seemed a distinct possibility a month or two ago (at least the media seemed to think so), now feels very unlikely. What do you think?

Robert G. Kaiser: As I said earlier, I think if Hillary were overwhelmingly somehow to win the nomination, she would work very hard to persuade Obama to be her running mate. I do not expect him to ask her to be his running mate, but I didn't expect JFK to ask LBJ either (and yes, I am that old.)

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Tallahassee, Fla.: Great work here, Robert. One question: Could you refresh our memory on the superdelegate count for each? Also, how many are still "undecided"? Finally, being from Florida, I think the suggestion about Bob Graham as vice president for Obama would be a great idea (maybe he's reading along!)

Robert G. Kaiser: Current superdelegate count: 271 for Clinton, 256 for Obama. It looks like there are 168 still undecided.

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Albany, N.Y.: There's a lot of discussion about the workings of open primaries -- both good and bad. However, there's a lot of stir on the 'Net about Republicans voting for Clinton, as she's the easier to beat. Some comes from postings from BUZZ Analytics.

Robert G. Kaiser: The exit polls show that Obama got almost as many Republican votes as Clinton in Indiana, despite Rush's efforts.

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Cincinnati: I'm here on the road with a show (about Ella Fitzgerald), so I don't live in Ohio. My question -- how big of a phenomenon is the newly registered voters who are participating for the first time? Will it be of historic proportions for the fall election?

Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. First-time voters overwhelmingly are voting for Obama, tonight and earlier -- and there are a lot of them. I am confident that we will see the biggest turnout of modern times in November.

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Washington: Despite Bush's historically low approval rates, it at least seems plausible that McCain could win in November. What would a Republican win mean? That Americans fundamentally don't believe a president has much impact on their lives? That a significant portion of the country is bigoted? That people don't connect Bush directly to the Republican Party?

Robert G. Kaiser: Boy, that's a lot of conditional hypotheticals. I'll pass.

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Alexandria, Va.: It seems to me a primary is a temporal beast; a lot of votes are influenced greatly by what immediately precedes them and how the media interpret them. To what extent do you think a candidate's ability to adeptly respond to events and manage opinion is as important as anything else in their campaign? And how important is that in running a presidency? In short, how useful is this exercise in distinguishing the right candidate?

Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. I think we each have to answer it ourselves. Running a presidential campaign is a big challenge. He or she who does it best has accomplished something significant, I think.

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Washington: Do you still find this race exciting, or are you bored? Why or why not?

Robert G. Kaiser: Not yet bored ... tired maybe. I think this is an historic election -- what my pal Peter Hart, the pollster, calls "A Big Election." History is being made. It's fun to watch.

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Port Jefferson, N.Y.: I am a registered Democrat and need a Democrat in the White House next year regardless of who the candidate is. What I have been watching, primary after primary, is not so much the results but the record turnouts state after state. I believe this translates into a fairly comfortable win for the Democrat in November, no matter which one heads the ticket.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. A lot of political professionals in both parties agree with you.

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St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada: Hi -- thanks for your informed commentary. Question: Are any statistics collected in these elections on the voting patterns of new immigrants -- in total, or by nationalities?

Robert G. Kaiser: Nope. No way to know who is a new citizen or who is an old one. Literally "new immigrants" are unlikely to be voters, because you have to go through the process of acquiring citizenship before you vote.

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Somerville, Mass.: Do you think that the Supreme Court again will decide to appoint the Republican candidate president if he loses in November and sues?

Robert G. Kaiser: Ha ha. I do not.

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Cincinnati: In many respects, the last Clintonian presidency ended with the Democrats politically bankrupt, and the Republicans swept in. Do you think the superdelegates are considering this, and weighing the chance for better odds with Obama?

Robert G. Kaiser: I know that some of them are; I don't know how many.

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Saint Marys, Pa.: I am a registered Republican who is bitter in rural Pennsylvania. Most of my Republican friends agree if the right Democratic candidate were to come along (not Clinton) they might vote for them. Do you think there will be a lot of crossover voters who would help Obama win in November? Do you think the winning candidate actually will have to answer to questions of race or sex against McCain in the November election?

Robert G. Kaiser: Not sure what your last question means. I do think there is the prospect of many crossover votes this year. Republicans in the Northeast and Midwest particularly, polls say, are considering switching in November, like you.

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Atlanta: Is anyone of stature in the Democratic Party advancing the idea of a brokered convention?

Robert G. Kaiser: Not that I've heard of.

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Chapel Hill, N.C.: To say I'm disappointed in the results of my state is a huge understatement. I staunchly believe that Hillary is the best candidate, and it will be hard to accept that she might not be our nominee in November. I think the Barack campaign has duped the college students and "intellectuals," and that this election essentially has been been bought.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting.

Who bought what, and how?

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Greensboro, N.C.: Recently there has been some speculation regarding Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal as McCain's vice president. If he were on the GOP ticket, what impact do you think this would have on voters seeking reform or change in the general elections? Jindal is widely seen as a reformist in his state, and more realistically can be considered a D.C. "outsider."

Robert G. Kaiser: Vice presidential candidates rarely have a noticeable impact on the outcome of a presidential election.

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Erie, Pa.: I would like to add a comment to the gentleman who feels Clinton is running a smear campaign: There is smear, and then there are presentation of facts intended to inform and educate. It is our right to hear all sides and then use our intellect to discern.

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks.

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Tallahassee, Fla.: Honest opinion: What happens when convention time comes and the popular votes go one way -- do the superdelegates follow?

Robert G. Kaiser: I think they do -- and long before the convention.

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Washington: You referred to first-time voters going heavy for Obama. We've seen 50 percent turnouts for what, the past 20 years? I think that is because not everyone is interested in voting against someone, and the trend in campaigns has been to scare you away from the opponent instead of making the case for you. Because Obama offers a different paradigm (accurately or not), I think that is why people are turning out to vote for him. Won't those votes stay home in another Clinton-style demonize-the-right-wing-conspiracy campaign?

Robert G. Kaiser: Your numbers aren't right. 2000 and 2004 were higher-turnout elections, as was '92 -- well above 50 percent I believe.

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Berkeley, Calif.: What was the rationale for Obama withdrawing his name from the Michigan ballot? Why wouldn't he simply have left it on?

Robert G. Kaiser: He was responding to the Democratic National Committee, which ruled that it was an unauthorized primary.

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Petaluma, Calif.: Setting aside the campaign negativity for the moment, why is there such a fuss about going into the Democratic convention with two or more candidates still running? I'm as old as you are and watched conventions since the early '50s, and I don't remember there being presumed winner. There was a lot of backroom negotiating that went on, and a lot of rivalry on the floor of the convention on behalf of multiple candidates. Sometimes there were multiple ballots before it was clear who would win the party's nomination. Why the fuss now?

Robert G. Kaiser: Because the world has changed, and most people are not as old as you and I. There has been no real doubt since 1960; that's a long time.

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Madison, Wis.: Hello,thank you for the intelligent and reasonable commentary. I work with conservative college students at the University of Wisconsin. They are wildly enthusiastic-about Obama. The last time I saw anything like this was 1980. I really think Obama will do for the Democrats what Ronald Reagan did for the Republicans -- pull millions into the party from the other side, probably for years to come. What do you think?

Robert G. Kaiser: Well, you've got more actual evidence than I do, but I am very struck by the enthusiasm of the young this time. You could well be on to something.

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Spokane, Wash.: I've been following Obama's rise in popularity and have concluded that he is really a "mirror" of what the public wants in a candidate. In other words, I think first-time and never-before voters have created the "perfect" candidate, which is why his followers are so loyal. Frankly, we don't really know very much about him at all -- and we know too much about Hillary!

Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. You know, I'm not sympathetic to the "we don't know very much about him" argument. Do you read? We have published an enormous amount about him in The Post. The New York Times has done a great deal of original work too. Obama's life is not a mystery -- it's well-documented. Yes, you have to sit down and do the reading. Interested?

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Robert G. Kaiser: Sorry I've been slow the past 10 minutes answering questions. I've been talking to Dan Balz and other colleagues here about what's going on. It's interesting that we can't figure out what we don't yet know from Indiana. The Obama camp is saying they think Clinton will win, but the Clinton camp isn't so sure, and neither are we. Obama still could win, and he will make it very, very close.

In my view this makes tonight much more important than I expected it to be, and much worse for Clinton than she was hoping. There is very little good news for her in these two states. Obama got the prime-time opportunity (the one she got in Pennsylvania) to make one of his better speeches, while she still has to be wondering what happened.

After his worst weeks of the year, Obama has done better than Clinton tonight -- that's an interesting headline.

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Kansas City, Mo.: With everything going on, are we to trust any kind of primary results? To me the media and government already has chosen whom they want, secretly. What do you think

Robert G. Kaiser: I think you're nuts.

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Maynard, Mass.: What do you think may be the significance of the Indiana Voter ID law recently upheld by the Supreme Court? My understanding is that thousand of voters have been disallowed to vote because of this, including half a convent of Catholic nuns in South Bend, Ind., and numerous college students. Is there any possibility that Congress might take up the question before November?

Robert G. Kaiser: Sorry, have no facts about this tonight.

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Annandale, Va.: Obama did rather better than polls predicted in Indiana; Hillary a little better vs. predictions in North Carolina. Hillary -- winning only two more delegates than Obama in Indiana -- likely will support her party first now, after a great effort. She has a great pragmatist for her chief advisor; time to negotiate the platform.

Robert G. Kaiser: In fact Clinton seems to have done worse than the final polls projected in North Carolina, didn't she?

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Durham, N.C.: I recently heard a radio interview with Peter Rost, a former vice president for Pfizer and author of "The Whistleblower," where he said that the current vice president of Pfizer has contributed to Hillary's campaign, but in the previous two elections he contributed to Bush. I have neither seen nor heard anything else since. Is this nothing, or is it funny that big pharma is contributing to someone supposedly out to reform health care?

Robert G. Kaiser: Clinton has received many contributions from people in the pharmaceutical industry.

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New Haven, Conn.: Are there any exit polls on how voters felt about the "gas tax holiday"? Do we have any way of knowing how that affected the race?

Robert G. Kaiser: Alas no.

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Robert G. Kaiser: We've just heard that we shouldn't expect a final count from Gary (still no votes in -- an Obama stronghold) until 11 p.m. EDT. So I think we'll wrap this up now.

My summation: The Clinton camp thought it had momentum tonight; it counted on a clear, early-declared win in Indiana and a closer-than-expected race in North Carolina. The outcomes in both states were, effectively, the opposite of what they hoped for. Whatever advantage they got out of Pennsylvania has now disappeared, I think. Obama is restored as the clear front-runner. Once again, this remarkable race has taken an unexpected turn. This might have been the last one.

Thanks to all for taking part. Good night.

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