Big Brown Goes for Triple Crown

Handicapper Liam Durbin was online Friday, June 6, at 1 p.m. ET Big Brown's chances of capturing the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes and takes your questions about the state of horse racing.

A transcript follows

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Liam Durbin: Thanks to the folks at Washingtonpost.com for the opportunity to take some questions. Let's get going!

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The State of Racing: Mr. Durbin, tens of millions of people will watch the Belmont tomorrow, who won't watch another horse race until the Breeder's Cup. Meanwhile, the winner of next year's Derby will probably win his maiden special weight event sometime this summer or fall.

What kind of step would it take to get more people interested in racing as a sport, like NASCAR. A more structured stakes schedule with a dedicated TV timeslot? An annual publication organized by division? A set of rotating stakes races not under the jurisdiction of individual state racing commissions?

Liam Durbin: Welcome everyone. Let's get going!

I think one thing they should do is study NASCAR, and adopt some of their succesful strategies, including cleaning up the rules, specifically cheating with meds.

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Hoof Injury: ESPN.com just reported Casino Drive has a hoof injury.

Can the coronation of Big Brown begin now?

Liam Durbin: I think that would be a shame, since I didn't give him much of a chance to beat Big Brown anyway. I think his biggest threat is Denis of Cork. So it may still be a race. He lost some of his pressure on the front end with the loss of Casino Drive.

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Myrtle Beach, SC: Who has the best chance to beat Big Brown, and how would the race have to unfold for it to happen?

Liam Durbin: I don't see a racing scenario that hands the race to someone else. If they try and get him caught up in a speed duel, Big Brown has shown the ability to rate (wait a bit). And if they try to box him in, like they did in the Preakness, he has shown the ability to overcome that. It would take Big Brown just throwing in a clunker. But that does happen.

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Anonymous: After what happened to Eight Belles, is the industry prepared for the certain criticism that will come if Big Brown's hoof does not hold up in the Belmont? If Big Brown suffers a major injury, people from all over will say he was pushed too hard, putting fortune and glory above his well being.

What do you think?

Liam Durbin: On the positive side, Big Brown's connections have said that he will race again in the summer and in the Breeders' Cup. So it is obviously not just about the money for them. I admire that since we have not had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years. Like any athlete on the cusp of something great, if he could choose, I think Big Brown would want to play on. Of course, I don't know what it feels like to have a quarter crack. But I do believe he is getting great help, just like other athletes and their trainers.

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Pittsburgh , PA: What number will Big Brown be wearing in the race?

Liam Durbin: I believe #1. He is in post position 1.

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Fairfax, Va.: Big Brown and Casino Drive are the obvious favorite choices in the race. But! How would you suggest a person wagers on the race given the odds on both horses won't be very attractive?

Liam Durbin: You have to either bet a ton of money (not what I recommend) or get very exotic. Try to fill out the superfecta with some long shots. But some win tickets on Big Brown and sell them on ebay.

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Ocala, Fla.: There may be a lack of speed in the Belmont. Do you think Big Brown will go to the lead or do you see Casino Drive reverting to the style of race he ran in Japan where he wired the field? I can see a scenario where Casino Drive runs to the lead and just never looks back.

Liam Durbin: I think Big Brown will go to the lead. That is not the way I like to see my Belmont horses go, but there really is not a lot of speed in the race. If he doesn't go for it, he may be rank early on and tugging away. That expends energy and ruins his mojo. I think they will let him run free on the lead.

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Williamsburg, Va.: I am probably the average horse racing fan who doesn't attend tracks or betting parlors, but has an interest in the sport year-round because I find these noble animals as competitors such compelling theater.

Now, with the knowledge that doping has been widespread and generally accepted by even the top trainers, and give the recent spate of breakdowns, I am becoming concerned that these horses, always up for the challenge by their very nature, are being artificially pushed beyond their safe, physical limits. Given Big Brown's hoof problems, I am thinking that I might not be able to watch the Belmont for fear I will see his demise. I wonder just how many other casual racing fans like myself find themselves dealing with that same fear. This isn't good for the sport. The steroid issue complicates these issues in a way the sport doesn't need.

Will horse racing effectively ban these drugs and consider the long-term health of their competitors in other ways, such as track surface and breeding goals, in the coming months?

Liam Durbin: I think it is a two part question. For the first part, I think we will not see any problems with Big Brown in the Belmont. So please watch it and enjoy. Don't miss the chance to see a Triple Crown winner.

On the second half, horse racing has been way too slow to address its cheating problems. No other sport, except possibly baseball has a more pathetic record for taking the issue head on. I like to think NASCAR has set the bar about where horse racing should get to. Even the top drivers have a zero tolerance policy applied to them. Fines are substantial and rules are well enforced. I'm not even a NASCAR fan, but I think they take their rules seriously.

There is a move taking place in horse racing to fix it. California is leading the way. I hope it accelerates. It is badly needed.

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Del Mar, California: Andy,

Someone should put a muzzle on Dutrow. I can understand his excitement, but for someone who's been around the sport for as long as he has, he should know better than to speak with such hubris. BB's obviously a superior colt, but his trainer will be eating a lot of crow if he leaves his race in the barn on Saturday.

Liam Durbin: I think of trainers like the Don King's of horse racing. It only makes it worse that their athletes can't talk for themselves. I prefer the quieter types, but heck if I had a Triple Crown winner in the making I would probably run my mouth some too. I just ignore it for the most part. Let him have his moment in the sun.

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Bryn mawr, PA: How serious do you think Casino Drive's newly discovered ailment might be? Do you think the trainer is just being super-cautious or do you think there is real concern it might impact how he performs tomorrow?

Liam Durbin: I have been on the road all day and have not read up on the injury yet. I hope it is nothing and he is ready. I want as much competition for Big Brown as possible. I don't believe Casino Drive can win the race anyway, so it will make the win that much more significant if Big Brown gets it done.

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Little Rock, Arkansas: Can Kent Desormeaux keep Big Brown from moving too soon and getting caught in the last 100 yards like Smarty Jones, Real Quite , and other recent Triple Crown contenders ? Do you give Denis of Cork a good chance to pull the upset ?

Liam Durbin: I don't have any concern about Big Brown. He can win this on the lead or he can win it from off the pace. His downfall, if it happens would be one of two types - either he just can't handle the extra distance (his breeding says he can) or he just has a bad day. Three long races in five weeks is asking a lot. I think Kent knows what he is doing. He is a veteran jockey that has done very well on Big Brown so far.

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Smarty Jones vs Big Brown: Please settle an argument I have with a fellow railbird.

In 2004, didn't Smarty Jones have nearly the same amount of inevitibility entering the Belmont as Big Brown?

Although you probably don't factor in the horse gods in your system, Dutrow and his bold statements could lead to a fourth place finish.

Liam Durbin: I disagree with you to some extent. Smarty Jones was a national hero. He had a cute name and great connections, a hard-luck jockey, and workmanlike trainer. I think he outran his breeding in the Derby and to some extent the Preakness. Everyeone wanted him to win that day but I don't think anyone felt it was an inevitability. There is no Birdstone in today's race. Doesn't mean Big Brown can't get beat, but I think he is much more deserving of his odds than Smarty Jones was.

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Cheating not the biggest horse problem: The insane desire to retire horses to the breeding sheds just when the public gains affection toward the animal.

When a horse like Smarty Jones retires because he is worth less racing, the economics of the sport cannot hold.

Liam Durbin: This is the nature of a free market. You can't blame the connections that much. Yearlings going for millions of dollars and breeding rights being worth small fortunes, it just makes economic sense to not risk injury to the horse. I am excited to see that Big Brown will race in the Travers and the Breeders Cup. Assuming he wins the Triple Crown, that is an enormous gift to racing to give us two more races from an asset so valuable.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Some fast and furious horses have discovered they didn't have the stamina to win the Bellmont Stakes. What are the odds Big Brown might wear out a bit and make this a competitive race?

Liam Durbin: His breeding says he won't tire that much in the stretch. And his racing history says the same. He won the Preakness under wraps and won the Derby racing wide in both turns. He has also shown a lot of maturity in his racing style. He does not have to hustle to the lead and burn up. Some will rely on the jockey, and I think Kent Desormeaux is up to the task.

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Ridgefield, CT: Why do you think Denis of Cork poses the most serious threat?

Liam Durbin: Not just because he is a late closer, and bred well for the distance, but because his racing history is very strong. He had one bad race before the Derby, but I threw that one out and told folks to include him in their exotics. He ran back to his best form and finished on the board. I see no reason why he will not advance off that effort, having had a few weeks to rest.

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San Diego, California: Andy,

Anyone who follows thoroughbred racing with any degree of care knows that American horses are primarily bred for speed (as opposed to stamina and durability). The triple crown races are a relic from a time when horses were bred for distances and drug use was not so pervasive. Asking young horses to go 10 furlongs, 9 1/2 furlongs and 12 furlongs in a 5 week period at the most intense level seems to be a recipe for disaster given that they're not bred to endure this. Should the triple crown races be shortened and/or spread out to better fit the physicality of the horses?

Liam Durbin: I don't think so. If you look at the shot pattern around the past eleven years, and the horses that have attempted the Triple Crown, the vast majority of years had one horse win two of the three races. So obviously it is not a complete crap shoot. There is some consistency in the results. I believe the biggest barrier to having a Triple Crown winner is the size of the field in the Derby and racing luck. Afleet Alex and Point Given were the best horses in the race on the first Saturday in May. They just didn't get the ride they needed. Smarty Jones got caught up in a speed duel and got fried. But overall, I'm encouraged with the results.

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Young Horses: Re: The question about quick careers and stud retirement

Isn't the over-emphasis on the Triple Crown part of the reason that careers end so quickly? I'd like to see horses racing into 4 and even 5, but that won't happen as long the Triple Crown gets 75% of all public attention to horse racing.

Liam Durbin: No, I think it is two separate things. Even though the public drives revenue for NBC during the Triple Crown season, the bulk of the value of the horse is in breeding, creating the next generation of horses to compete. That is what drives their value and 99% of the races the next generation of race horses compete in are not televised in any significant way.

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Orlando, Fla.: Why is everyone so upset with Dutrow Jr. and his confidence in Big Brown? Is it because they know how great this horse is? Is it jealousy? I was in the Grandstands at the Derby, and bet my bottom dollars on this horse. Big Brown delivers, and like Dutrow Jr., I could just feel it. The outside post scared me at first, but I won on him at the FL Derby in the same position. Anyone that doubts the greatness of this horse is out of their mind. I've never seen a horse so enamored with the attention of fans, media and cameras. Big Brown loves to run, and I predict he will win by the largest margin yet on Saturday.

My only question is, who should fill out the trifecta? I'm picking Big Brown 1, Casino Drive 2, and Dennis of Cork 3. What do you think?

Liam Durbin: The largest margin yet... in the Belmont Stakes or in Big Brown's racing history? Secretariat won by 30 lengths and I don't see that being beaten tomorrow.

I'll have Denis of Cork and Macho Again and a few others to make up my superfecta. I think the Trifecta won't pay much as long as Big Brown wins.

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La Jolla, California: If Big Brown wins, will you consider him at the level of Affirmed and Seattle Slew? Will you consider him better than Spectacular Bid and Smarty Jones?

Liam Durbin: I will not differentiate between previous Triple Crown winners and Big Brown (if he does it). It would be unfair to do so. Although I have not produces any fluff over it, certainly the media has a ball with the Triple Crown near misses every year. They crow about how it is impossible, a vestige of racing days gone by, inappropriate for today's race horse, etc.

Ok, so if all that is true, Big Brown will have overcome MUCH more in winning it than the last generation to do so 30 years ago when horses were bred for it, fields were smaller, etc.

If he wins the Triple Crown, he belongs with the best of the best. Period.

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Lexington, Ky.: Top three finishers for Belmont?

Thanks

Liam Durbin: Big Brown, Macho Again, Ready's Echo

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Laurel: Isn't the Belmont Stakes an anachronism? It's the ONLY Grade I event on the entire North American racing calendar that's over 1.25 miles on dirt.

Given the (legitimate) controversy about breakdowns, shouldn't we be looking at whether spring 3-year-olds ought to be going a mile and half?

Liam Durbin: There is a fine line between a classic and an anachronism. I am for leaving it alone. The only change I would make to the Triple Crown would be to stick another week in between the Derby and the Preakness. I just think athletes need time to heal and regroup and train. The rest is fine by me.

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Towson Maryland: I've always heard that a 3yo couldn't miss a beat throughout the triple crown series to be able to win,even more so because they must run 1.5 miles for possibly the only time in their racing career.

Do you feel the fragile feet of Big Brown will halt his run for the triple crown?

Liam Durbin: Nope. I don't believe a word that any trainer says, as a matter of policy. But I do believe what I see and folks around the track watching Big Brown train on that hoof say he looks absolutely great. I also think he is getting excellent help with the foot.

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St. Louis: How much chance do you think Denis of Cork has?

Liam Durbin: I think he has a great chance of running second. I believe he is the second best horse in the race. So if Big Brown falters in the stretch, it could be Denis of Cork to clean up.

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San Luis Obispo, CA: Mr. Durbin:

Thanks for taking our questions. I've been a horse racing fan for years, and it has never been this un-fun to be a fan. I'm losing patience with the sport. All of the breakdowns on the track make me dread watching a race. American racing still isn't serious about banning drug use or overuse of the whip. Most of the top 3-year-olds are now retired at the end of the racing season to begin their stud careers. Years ago, if Big Brown won the Triple Crown, we could look forward to seeing him race against the best older horses so we could assess just how good he is. Are owners aware of how racing fans are being turned off of their sport, or do they even care?

Liam Durbin: I think they are aware. All the factors you mention are creating a perfect storm. Left unchecked, greed will prevail and things will not get better. There are changes underway, in particular in California and other progressive states to control drug use. I hope it changes too.

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Los Angeles: Do Big Brown's trainer and ownership reflect poorly on the sport of horse racing?

Liam Durbin: I suppose they do, but I've been around the sport enough that I've learned how to ignore it all. I'm happy for them. And I'm happy that we have a great champion this year with a shot at history.

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Arlington, Va.: I know Big Brown is an amazing runner, but it has been suggested that he was handed the Preakness win since the level of talent in the field was much lower than he should be competing against. Do you agree with this? What do you think about the level of talent in the field for the Belmont?

Liam Durbin: Competition is lower than recent years, but not low enough to put an asterisk next to his name if he wins. For goodness sake, what he is attempting to do is really hard to do. His Derby performance was one for the ages. Truly remarkable performance.

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Bethesda, Md.: Thanks for the chat.

I believe that not only does horse racing need Big Brown to win the triple crown tomorrow but they need him to do it in an epic performance. Either a great duel with Casino Drive or a double digit length victory.

If one of these two scenarios were to happen do you believe that it could raise the interest level in horse racing again?

Liam Durbin: Yes, I certainly do. It has been too long since a horse won the Triple Crown. And I'm tired of the drivel about how it is impossible. No, it is just hard. Like throwing a perfect game in baseball. It would be good for racing no matter how he wins.

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Windsor, Colo.: Hi Liam:

Assuming Big Brown wins the Belmont, will he be considered a great horse or just a good horse that ran against mediocre competition? Is there a horse in the field that will challenge Big B?

Thank You.

Liam Durbin: I believe that all the writers who have been pumping out paragraph after paragraph about how impossible the Triple Crown has become and discussing necessary changes to the sport to make it more winnable should be required to write "Big Brown is a great racehorse and a deserving champion, and belongs in history next to all the other great racehorses" 500 times on the chalkboard.

The length of the race will make it tough enough, but I still think Big Brown is the best and will prevail. My heart will be with him.

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Healdsburg, CA: I hear that horses are bred more for speed today than 20+ years ago, and hence are more fragile. But are horses really any faster than they were 20+ years ago? Have we seen lots of new track records?

Liam Durbin: Great question. I think the answer is yes, but not to the degree you would expect to validate the statement. There are many track records that are still standing that have lasted decades. If the statement were completely accurate, I think there would be fewer such records.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks again to Washingtonpost.com. These are always a lot of fun. Thanks for the great questions. Please check out the message forum on www.e-ponies.com for more good conversations about the Belmont. Good luck tomorrow!

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