Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Shailagh Murray
Washington Post National Political Reporter
Monday, June 9, 2008 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Monday, June 9 at 11 a.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.

Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

____________________

At Work: Now that Sen. Clinton has "suspended" her campaign and endorsed Sen. Obama, will the superdelegates who have come out for her begin to announce they have switched allegiance to Obama? So far none have done that (between Saturday and today). Wouldn't that go a long way toward convincing those of us who are suspicious of the word "suspend"? What does she mean by that anyway?

Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone. One chapter of the campaign is over, but a whole new one is unfolding. Bring on your questions and observations about this remarkable political year.

As for "suspend," it sounds slippery, but it's not -- it just allows her to continue fundraising so she can retire that big ugly debt. She still has her delegates, but even the Obama campaign doesn't read anything into that. As for superdelegates, they are free to switch sides whenever -- and I'm sure that when the mourning period ends, many will.

_______________________

Roebling, N.J.: Everybody seems focused on the vice presidential picks right now. I am more interested in whether the effort to oppose lobbyist influences will hold. What do you think?

Shailagh Murray: One of the more interesting developments last week, overshadowed by even bigger events, was Obama's little Democratic National Committee coup, imposing his own fundraising restrictions. It was a pretty bold stroke that should make the K Street crowd squirm. Lobbyists complain about the endless campaign solicitations, but that's the price of admission.

_______________________

La Vale, Md.: If McCain does take public financing, doesn't that give him about $85 million to spend on the general election? If Obama eschews public financing and raises $400 million to spend, how does McCain compete? With that disparity, couldn't Obama run a 50-state campaign and pick up a few states where McCain simply doesn't have the resources to compete?

Shailagh Murray: That's the concern among Republicans right now -- that Obama simply is going to crush McCain on the money front.

_______________________

Missoula, Mont.: Sen. Obama seems to have huge advantages going into the race against Sen. McCain: money (and infrastructure that ensures plenty more will come), enthusiasm across a wide range of people, the right message for the time, and a broad and disciplined organization. What does McCain have to counter this besides the compelling personal life story and, possibly, a Rove-style, nasty, 51-percent-type strategy? Maybe this is naive, but it's hard to imagine a fear-based campaign would do it this time, given the economy and the wars.

Shailagh Murray: Right now, it does look like Obama is holding the high cards.

But remember, this is politics -- dynamics can change in a hurry. For instance, a national security crisis could shake up the race. A really bad story or two, especially late in the cycle, could knock Obama off his game. The one thing McCain has going for him is that he is a known quantity and fits the traditional presidential job description (old white guy who's been there, done that). That seems like a curse in a change environment, but could prove beneficial if the country's mood shifts to a more conservative place.

_______________________

Falls Church, Va.: My question is about the high cost of gas. We all know that historically, the U.S. has been paying far less per gallon/liter of gas than they pay in Europe, because our taxes on gas are much lower. Since Bush took over, our gas price has at least doubled, to $4 a gallon. Have the prices in Europe doubled in the same time period, or are the oil companies to blame?

Shailagh Murray: My colleague Al Kamen just returned from France. When he filled up his rental car, a Mercedes compact, it cost a grand total of $240.

My sense is that this is not about oil companies or speculators, or any other villain in particular. This is a new supply-and-demand reality that is probably here to stay.

_______________________

A real eye-opener: Say what you will about Clinton's campaign, but it sure ripped open a hole in our culture and forced us to look inside -- and what we found was a simmering cauldron of crude, sophomoric sexism and ugly misogyny that a lot of us knew existed but didn't realize was still so socially acceptable that it could be broadcast on national television and garner nary a complaint from anybody but a few Internet scolds. It was eye-opening, to say the least. Now I'm wary about what Obama's going to have to deal with in the general ... that race issue is another of those simmering cauldrons, I think. Agree?

Shailagh Murray: Interesting observations. Thank you.

Both of these unprecedented campaigns have shown us aspects of American life that we don't usually confront. It's a significant moment that we probably won't understand for a while. I would suggest there are some positive signs to go along with the moth holes and dry rot -- but I'm also pretty sure we haven't seen an end to the ugliness.

_______________________

New York: Falls Church should know wholesale gasoline prices are higher in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world.

Shailagh Murray: Ugh.

_______________________

Richmond, Va.: Thanks for taking our questions; I'll keep it short for a Monday. Does Al Franken stand a chance against Norm Coleman in Minnesota?

washingtonpost.com: Franken wins endorsement for Senate in Minnesota (AP, June 7)

Shailagh Murray: I don't shy from bold predictions, but I can't call that one. Coleman is a real tough politician, and I'm not sure if Franken has the mettle to take all the incoming. He may, but we just don't know. Minnesota is one of the few states that would elect him, but Coleman is a moderate, and they're hard to beat because they're harder for Democrats to politically demonize.

_______________________

Atlanta: Sorry, Shailagh, the oil situation is not just supply and demand. Explain why every day that the price per barrel goes up, it goes up at my local gas station the very next day -- yet, when the price comes down on a given day, it doesn't come down the next day at my local station. It is a complicated issue, but I seem to remember that "supply and demand" was blamed for the energy problems in California, when in fact it turned out to be market manipulation by Enron. Come on, be a little more skeptical here.

Shailagh Murray: Yes, it's very very complicated, and I encourage all of you not to rely on casual observations from an online chat. But I did once cover serious matters, when I worked for the Wall Street Journal, and I urge everyone to the read up on this issue so that people don't draw simplistic conclusions about price gauging, etc., that in turn lead to short-sighted legislation and ultimately half-measures that prove detrimental to the economy.

_______________________

Wokingham U.K.: Are the Middle East policies and promises of Obama and McCain likely to be essentially the same, or clearly distinct?

Shailagh Murray: If you have one candidate advocating continuing the war in Iraq, and the other advocating ending it, that suggests very different philosophies about the region. The foreign-policy debate between these two candidates is going to be fascinating.

_______________________

Anonymous: Republicans seem ready to make Iran a major campaign issue, warning of the naivety of talking with its leaders (not mentioning, of course, that the administration of conservative icon Ronald Reagan actually sold guns to the Islamic Republic of Iran, thinking it might too moderate mullahs). Would having a moderate Democrat with strong foreign policy/defense credentials like Sam Nunn on the ticket make any difference for Obama?

Shailagh Murray: I depart from the conventional wisdom on this one -- I don't think Obama particularly needs a foreign-policy babysitter as his running mate. I expect him to pick someone who is more in sync with his style and outlook on everything, not a niche player he doesn't know well, or who will become a Democratic Dick Cheney. (Not that Sam Nunn and Cheney have anything in common).

_______________________

New York: What happened in South Dakota? I though Obama was supposed to win there. I realize it's moot as far as the nomination goes, but did/does he have a strategy there? Thanks.

Shailagh Murray: They sort of backed off that state, and they paid the price. Clinton practically lived in South Dakota the last few weeks and I think people really connected with her and probably felt a tinge of the loyalty that we saw in New Hampshire.

_______________________

Coleman vs. Franken: Just to follow up on the Franken/Coleman question, speaking as a native Minnesotan, Coleman is extremely polarizing -- about half seem to perceive him as a Bush "yes man" and an opportunist who switched parties to have a better shot at higher office. And nearly six years later, there is still the perception that he "took" Wellstone's seat, and the Democrats want it back. And yes, the other half think he's doing a great job.

Shailagh Murray: Thank you for weighing in. I should note that most Democratic political folks I speak with aren't sure about Franken's chances, either.

_______________________

Gas prices in Europe: Remember that oil is denominated in dollars, so the decline in the value of the dollar relative to the Euro has cushioned the rise in oil prices in Europe. Plus they've always had higher taxes and better public transportation infrastructure. Trust me, major cities in Europe are better prepared for sustained high energy prices than major cities in the U.S. (except perhaps for New York City). As for the cause, demand in this market is very complicated with the role of futures trading.

Shailagh Murray: More on the oil front.

_______________________

Your Al Kamen anecdote: The question is how much gasoline has gone up in Euros in the past five years. The dollar is weak, so that's probably part of the reason it cost him so much to fill up his tank.

Shailagh Murray: It was 160 euros. When I lived in Europe during the 1990s, until 1999, gas was about $5 per gallon; of course we didn't have euros then.

_______________________

Falls Church, Va. (again): Thanks for the gas answer. Regarding the supply-and-demand issue, where did this suddenly come from? It seems like just overnight, there was all this additional demand. Where did it come from? Did China suddenly get a billion more commuters or instantly open ten thousand more factories?

Shailagh Murray: Again, I would refer you to some of the excellent coverage by reporters who know what they're talking about (such as my husband, Neil King, who writes about global oil for the Wall Street Journal). But you know the tipping point phenomenon? That is what's happening with oil right now, with a whole bunch of forces acting together.

_______________________

Arlington, Va.: Shailagh says: "But I did once cover serious matters." That's pretty funny, but we need you (and all of your compadres) to get back to serious matters ASAP. We are going through a severe case of cognitive dissonance as the worldview and future expectations of the general populace are coming into question. How would this country deal with real year-over-year declines in the amount of oil that is available to us? It's a bit scary when you think about it...

Shailagh Murray: Amen, Arlington.

_______________________

Bethesda, Md.: Following up on your response to gas cost question, every economics expert I have heard in the past few weeks on any media outlet you can name says that $55-$60 on each barrel is speculation and has nothing to do with the cost of production and delivery of the product and making a reasonable profit. Your answer suggests you don't to buy into that scenario -- why is that?

Shailagh Murray: I find this talk of "speculation" kind of revealing. I thought that's what we once considered "capitalism."

_______________________

Chicago: Hey Shailagh. Per Bob Novak's reporting this morning, in lieu of a fervent evangelical base, how will McCain generate the necessary enthusiasm for victory?

washingtonpost.com: McCain's Evangelical Problem (Post, June 9)

Shailagh Murray: That's a big question, isn't it?

Both candidates have serious problems with base voters, but right now I would say that McCain's evangelical challenge seems greater, because he has such a long history with these folks. I don't know how you win a general election without them, especially if Obama runs hard in states like North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. And the down-ballot Republican candidates must be freaking out.

_______________________

Clifton, Va.: Advantages for McCain: Older folks vote, younger ones don't; African Americans just don't turn out and vote for a variety of reasons; although they say they aren't racists, you never can be sure how us white folks are going to vote once inside the voting booth; there's a 60 percent chance of terrorist attack between August and Election Day, maybe higher -- the Bush administration is in full provocation mode against al-Qaeda; don't forget Obama's minister problem; or his his middle name.

Shailagh Murray: I would challenge you on black turnout this year -- African-American voters are likely to be pretty motivated. And as for "us white folks," I think the primary season put a lie to that theory.

_______________________

Clinton and the future: I have been "on the record" with my friends as not being a Clinton or Obama supporter, although I am a capital-L Liberal. Quite frankly, I think Sen. Clinton is exactly where she is best -- in the Senate. She strikes me as being a very good senator who, in time could become one of those venerable and productive institutions like the senior senator from Massachusetts.

While I understand the allure of the White House, I can't help but think that senators who are good at what they do and survive for decades in office are far more effective in serving their constituents than presidents often are. Is there any chance that Clinton will embrace this view and prove to be one of the better senators for years to come?

Shailagh Murray: Yes, I always have believed that Hillary Clinton has the makings of a Senate legend, that she has exactly the right skills for that place. A lot of her colleagues believe that too, and some are a bit threatened by her return.

Gotta split, but thanks to all of you for participating and stay cool to everyone inside this bizarre heat belt. Cheers.

_______________________

Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.