Washington Nationals

Washington Post Nationals beat writer Chico Harlan was online Wednesday, July 16 at noon ET to take your questions and comments about the Washington Nationals.

A transcript follows.

Discussion Archive.

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Chico Harlan: Hey folks, we've got the all-star break edition of the Nats chat today. Ask away. Let's get started.

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Washington, DC: My 12-year-old nephew recently asked me who the best player on the Nationals is. Even as one of the 9,000, I couldn't come up with anyone. I guess Zimmerman might be the best if he wasn't hurt, but even he is pretty overrated and likely would bat no higher than 7th on a contending team. Who do you think is the best Nat?

Chico Harlan: The answer for now is Zimmerman. A player without legit talent can fool you for a month, or even a few months, but not for two years. That's a fair track record and with that, you can rightfully guess that Zimmerman will be -- at worst -- a 20-25 HR, 85-100 RBI guy throughout his career. Even this season, with the slow start, would have likely led to such numbers were it not for the injury. He's far and away the best bat this organization has right now.

And I think you're a little down on Zim, more than you should be, DC. Even a contending team with an above-average lineup puts Zimmerman in the middle of an order. Unless its the Cardinals. Then maybe La Russa bats him ninth.

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Annandale, VA: Chico,

Is it possible that at the season's start, the Nats TV audience was really twice what was recently reported, but half of those people have broken their TVs by flinging their remotes at Pena, Lopez, and Ayala?

Chico Harlan: If Nats fans are really tossing their remotes that hard, then maybe a few should get in touch with Randy St. Claire. Especially if those remotes are getting flung by lefties.

The real question is, if Ayala were to TiVo his own performance, sit down to watch and then somehow feel the compulsion to hurl his remote in disgust, would he be able to hit a 27-inch screen?

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Washington, DC: What are the chances of the Nats making a deal before the trade deadline?

Is there any realistic possibility of them finding someone to take Felipe Lopez?

Chico Harlan: Two things must happen in order for the Nats to deal Lopez. (And indeed, they have keen interest to get rid of him.)

First, they need one other team to actually want him.

Second, they need approval from up top that they can swallow the necessary portion of his 2008 salary. (Any trade would require the Nats to pay at least a portion of the money Lopez is still making this year.)

Sources basically indicate to me that the money issue is the real reason that deal with Baltimore, discussed a few weeks ago, died out. The O's did indeed want Lopez. But since, at least to my knowledge, the Nats have found no other serious offers for Lopez. He's been playing enough of late, though, that if he gets hot, something might change.

As for other deals...

Well, anticipation for deadline deals often exceeds the actual outcome. A few times, Bowden has pulled off some interesting moves in July. (The 2006 team swap with Cinci comes first to mind.) But this year, the Nats have somewhat limited resources. Rauch and Redding, by my eye, are likely to draw the most interest. Washington can find takers for either of those two if the team wants. The front office just has to decide if the return is worthwhile.

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Not sold on Lannan, NY, NY: Don't you think Lannan is overrated? After all, he was a 12th round pick. And wouldn't it make sense to trade him now while he has an upside to get some decent players. After all, I think his stock will plummet.

Chico Harlan: No no no no. Lannan is precisely the kind of pitcher Washington needs more of. Trading him would be counterproductive, maybe even ludicrous. Sure, he wasn't always the most highly-regarded prospect, but what difference does that make now? None. You don't need to be a first- or second-round pick to excel in the major leagues.

Scouts I talk to mention that Lannan is the smartest young pitcher Washington has. He's a lefty, and though his fastball isn't dominant, his complimentary pitchers and his accuracy are both good enough to ensure a long, productive career. That's not the kind of asset the Nats can afford to part with right now.

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Firecli, NT: Any chance our long national nightmare will end soon?

Fire Clint!

Chico Harlan: Attention webmasters everywhere:

You create the online petition, I'll sign.

In all seriousness... I've heard Clint is a fine fellow, and though I've never met him, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. But the high-volume antics when the camera is rolling are just juvenile. I like my ancillary ballpark personalities a bit more like, say, the mascots -- who happen not to talk.

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Washington, D.C.: Why is Bud Selig even attempting to look at those terrible ratings of Nats baseball? I know a lot of people (myself included) despises the fact that he made it possible for the Orioles (i.e. MASN) to own the Nat's TV rights. Outside of that, what can he do about that issue?

Chico Harlan: Maybe the FBI can lend its power to this investigation, too.

In all seriousness, I have zero reason -- zero -- to believe that the ratings figures are inaccurate. Maybe they're off by a few percentage points, but Nielsen ratings are really a form of polling, and polling a small sample to glean a larger amount of data always leads to slight inaccuracies. In this case, there seems a tendency to assume that tough-to-believe numbers are in fact wrong numbers. But that's some fallacious logic. More likely, there are numerous factors that account for the horrendous TV ratings (a terrible team, a ballpark that draws whatever fans are around, poor broadcasting production, MASN2 confusion, lack of HD, etc.) and all of those add up to explain the "9,000."

Until I have reason to believe the number is different, I'm sticking with it.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Are the Lerners developing any contingency plan should any management personnel be found to have been involved in the bonus skimming investigation?

Chico Harlan: I would certainly hope so, but they are the only people who could say as much, and they most assuredly will not. Listen, the Lerners are smart business people. Every business needs a contingency plan when danger starts to creep close.

So far, only two members of the front office have had any involvement with the FBI. That would be Bowden, who has already been interviewed, and Jose Rijo, who will interview with the FBI in a few weeks. But for the sake of all involved, those interviews should not be confused with an admission of guilt. Even if the FBI starts an investigation with a particular target in mind, the agency interviews many who have done nothing wrong whatsoever.

Right now, the Nats involvement in this investigation goes a little deeper than other teams' involvement. But that's just for now. The more I talk to people in baseball, it seems like an entire army of low-level scouts have had quiet, widespread knowledge for years about the dirty games that go on in the Dominican. There are bound to be plenty of guilty parties as this thing plays out. But for now, we just don't have enough answers.

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Fairfax, VA: Have you heard anything about the rumor that the Nats are interested in acquiring Matt Holiday?

Chico Harlan: Yeah. I've also heard that Colorado is asking for a lot. They are under no real pressure to trade Holliday. It's not some Sabathia-type situation where the team really has no choice. Colorado is just fine with keeping the guy, and the willingness to do so helps drive up the price it'll take for another team to get him. I'd be surprised, very surprised, if Washington has the juice to pull it off.

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Section 113: Oh, God please get rid of Clint. I'll even give "The Plan" another 2 years without complaint in exchange.

Chico Harlan: Honest question.

Is anybody out there in support of Clint? If so, please speak up. The guy could use some love.

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Section 303: Chico, Sadly, I missed the party on Sunday. So is anyone in the Nats ownership doing anything about the chronic problems the team has with serious injuries? All the way back to 2005, the team's been ravaged by them, and it can't all be bad luck. Is there some kind of Lerner-Labrum-Lame cream they're using??

Chico Harlan: The Nats interpret this year as a crazy anomaly, nothing more. They don't see the rash of injuries as something that could have been prevented with a change in, say, treatment or conditioning. Injuries have hit both those who were out of shape (like Chad Cordero) and those who rank among the best athletes in the game (like Elijah Dukes). As far as I know, the team similarly plans no changes to curb the injury rate.

I am not sure I'd agree that injuries between 2005 and 2007 were irregular. Baseball always takes its toll. Every team takes its blows, but relative to the rest of baseball, the Nats -- until this year -- were no outlier.

If you come up with the labrum cream, though, I'll buy a few shares of stock in the product.

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Re: Lannan:"That's not the kind of asset the Nats can afford to part with right now."

What about a year or two down the road? Assuming Lannan continues to excel, would you advocate doing what the A's did with Danny Haren - lock him up through his arbitration years and then deal him for a bevy of prospects once he gets too expensive?

Chico Harlan: Smart question. It's really an economic question, foremost. The quick-trigger answer for the A's approach is that they're a small market team that cannot afford to pay top dollar for top-talent pitchers... thus, they trade them away and reload. But I think more to the point, teams like the A's have decided that pitchers have great value in their pre-arbitration years, and after that -- especially once free agency nears or hits -- they become overvalued. Given what veteran pitchers, even No. 3 and No. 4 starters, tend to make these days, that argument has some validity. Especially when you consider that pitching is tough to rely on with injuries, etc.

So the Nats, eventually, will have to make a decision on how to handle their top pitchers as they develop. Most teams that are capable of paying top-of-the-rotation talent are still willing to do so. If the Nats show a willingness to boost their payroll to a level consistent with a big market team, they will probably follow suit.

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Clint's Mom: I was happy to get him out of the house -- all of that cheering and carrying on -- even on spaghetti night. It'll even get on a mother's nerves.

Chico Harlan: Dear Clint's Mom:

Just a guess here, but when Clint was growing up, was your cupboard filled with soda and sugary cereals?

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Washington, D.C.: In Clint's defense, it's the concept that's more of the problem than him personally, the concept being that we fans can't go even a half inning without some alleged "entertainment." Call me old fashioned but what's wrong with once and a while just putting on an interesting piece of music and watching the warmups between innings, instead of some stupid trivia contest?

Chico Harlan: Agreed.

Also, to be fair, I should mention that I've heard Clint is actually a good dude away from the camera. He's just doing the job that's asked of him. I don't want things to get personal in this chat, so I'll clear that much up. I have no problem with Clint as a human being. But yes, it's the concept that is the problem, DC.

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Washington, D.C.: Chico, Good job so far. What I'm struggling with is that outside of a massive infusion of talent not currently with the organization, we aren't going to contend next year either. So what is the point of it all?

Chico Harlan: Do a degree, I'll have a story in Friday's paper that addresses the talent the organization has right now, and where it will all lead. You're right when you say that only a massive talent infusion -- talent from outside of the organization -- will make this team a contender next year. It will take a few big checks and some luck. The Lerners need to decide if this is the offseason to finally open up the checkbook. Chances are, they will have to overpay for one or two free agents until the team actually establishes itself as a desired destination.

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Wily Mo Pena: Listen, Harlan, I don't care what your survey says. I am not as bad as I've been playing. No way. Not even close. Your readers crucified the Guz a few years back for his bad play and now he's the team's lone All Star and its "darling." Why? Because Guz was playing hurt and so am I. Why can't people see that? And like Guz and the Phoenix, I will rise from the ashes when I get healthy. Regardless of whether is it with the Nats or some other team. Guaranteed.

Chico Harlan: Guzman is the one guy somebody like Wily Mo can point to. I won't blame the team for sticking with him for one more season and seeing what happens when he's fully healthy. Guzman himself told me, If you don't have your health, you have no chance.

Fair enough.

The counterargument in this case? Unlike Guzman before all those injuries, Pena has never shown a true ability over a prolonger period of time. Yes, he has hit home runs, but never with the kind of consistency that offsets his other liabilities -- especially in the field. He has tantalizing potential, but he's still got a lot to piece together.

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Golden Triangle: Chico Harlan: The answer for now is Zimmerman.

The answer is Guzman. SS is more important defensively than 3B, and Guzman's BA is way higher than Zimmerman's this season and last. They've both been hurt, so that's a push.

Chico Harlan: Disagree. Yes, shortstop is more important defensively, but Guzman has limited range. He's hardly a top-flight defensive shortstop. I've heard some in baseball actually say that his fielding is borderline-inadequate.

Zimmerman, meanwhile, is a fantastic fielder... he's got Gold Glove potential at third. The team has missed his fielding almost as much as it's missed his bat.

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Centreville, VA: Clint isn't that bad. I think all these people are completely clueless as to how difficult his job really is. I've seen him go out of his way to be nice to little kids (stopped by to say Happy Birthday to a little tyke and gave him a tee shirt).

It's a tough job, and someone needs to do it. Clint, like the Plan, should be kept!

Chico Harlan: One vote for Clint.

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Section 408: I'll throw some love Clint's way. Personally, except for the Presidents' race, I don't care for all the entertainment they throw at us at the end of each inning. But Clint doesn't bother me at all and I think he does a good job of presenting his contests without being over-the-top.

Chico Harlan: OK, that's enough Clint for a day. But at least we helped build a little defense for the guy. Thanks, Sec 408.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Does the Post plan to publish an article on the Nationals first half season and a look ahead to the second half? I realize that the team's first half was pathetic and the second half will likely be bleak. But I noticed that the Baltimore Sun has a big article today about the O's second half chances and grades on the first half. A detailed look at the direction of this team seems to be in order.

Chico Harlan: Friday.

Whatever you see in the paper, it'll probably be one-third the length I want it to be. I'll funnel some other content toward the blog, though.

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Washington, D.C.: Chico, Elijah Dukes: Before the injury he was really coming on. I believe that he could become one of the top players in the game...speed, power,great arm, great glove. Your thoughts on the Duke of D.C.?

Chico Harlan: Way way to early to presume anything with Dukes. The team was taking such a pronounced risk with the kid when it acquired him... yeah, the Nats hardly gave up a thing to get him, but now that they're building a future around him, the stakes are higher. They envision him anchoring a spot in the outfield for years to come, potentially. They're fully invested. More so than when the season began.

You're right to see Dukes as having all of the tools. His arm is dazzling. He can run. When he's hot at the plate, he's got knock-out power. I thought the Dukes we saw in June was the team's top position player.

My questions:

Can he stay out of trouble?

Can he show that same talent over the long haul?

Simply too early to know. But darn, it'll be fascinating to learn. He's certainly one of the most intriguing talents in the sport.

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Chico Harlan: Well guys, we're up against the clock here. Thanks for chatting this afternoon. Enjoyed the questions. Next time the Journal group gets together, maybe we can meet at Clint's Mom's house for spaghetti.

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