Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Chris Cillizza, washingtonpost.com political blogger, was online Friday, Aug. 15 at 11 a.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning all. I have two thoughts to kick off this chat: I am very ready for the veepstakes to end, and I am very sick of beach volleyball being on in primetime. And away we go.

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Washington: Chris, I love your work ... my day was empty without my daily dose of Cillizza's Fix last week! Simple question for you ... since you bolted for Argentina before delivering a Veepstakes Line, are we going to get one last one here before Obama makes the choice? If not, can you at least give us a ranking in the chat?

Chris Cillizza: Nice to see my wife on the chat. Thanks for the question.

Yes, there will be another veepstakes Line. In fact, I was working on it right before I signed on to this chat and will finish it up once we end here.

I don't want to give away too much information on my new Line -- since I need the page views on The Fix! -- but I will tell you there are new No. 1s on both sides.

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Manchester, Vt.: Chris, what's your take on Obama's timing of the vice presidential announcement? I'm almost 100 percent sure McCain will wait until he hears Obama's pick. A weeknight during the 6:30 p.m. news in the East, a weekend, or what? Also -- as posed to Anne yesterday -- are both campaigns going to wait until the 20th to announce July fundraising? Thanks.

Chris Cillizza: I wish I knew...
My guess is that Obama will go first and that he will announce sometime next week. Obama is flying back from Hawaii today and then heads to the Saddleback Church tomorrow. So that leaves Sunday, and, to be honest, I just don't see that happening.

So, next week is most likely for Obama although he will need to be mindful of the Olympics, which is dominating television pretty much all the time right now.

My guess on McCain is that he waits until Obama picks and maybe until after the Democratic convention. McCain is most likely to use his announcement to take some thunder from Obama so I could see his pick being announced right after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention.

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Sacramento, Calif.: Do you think it is a tactical error to let Clinton go into nomination? Does it make Obama look weak?

Chris Cillizza: Speaking of the convention....
As I wrote last night on The Fix, I don't think it's a tactical error for Obama to allow Clinton to have a roll call vote. Obama is well aware that there are still elements within the party who are deeply committed to Clinton, and the best way for him to court those voters is to show as much respect and deference to the New York senator as possible. She did get 18 million votes and she remains a major figure in the party.

In my mind, it's always better to look big rather than small in presidential politics. By allowing Clinton's name to be put in for nomination, Obama seems to be signaling that he is comfortable with her prominent role in the party -- demonstrating the confidence necessary to unite Democrats in the fall.

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Conventions: Why should we care about conventions when we already know the names of the nominees? Will anything interesting happen at either one other than empty speeches and imagined drama?

Chris Cillizza: It's true that the conventions are not the knock-down, drag-out floor fights that they once were. But, I am not entirely in the camp that says the conventions are meaningless and shouldn't be covered either.

For the average voter, the conventions may be the first time they truly start paying attention to the campaign and, therefore, the message and visuals that come out of Denver and St. Paul do matter quite a bit.

Are both conventions highly choreographed affairs? Yes. But, that doesn't mean they aren't important and shouldn't be covered.

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St. Paul, Minn.: Hi Chris -- thanks for taking questions today, and welcome back from vacation. Two questions: When can we expect to hear about a vice president from either candidate, and what are the chances that either will reach across the aisle for their pick?

Chris Cillizza: I addressed the timing question above. As for whether either candidate will reach across the aisle, I believe there is almost no chance Obama will pick a Republican (yes, including Chuck Hagel) as his vice president.

McCain is a different question. My understanding is that Joe Lieberman, the Independent Senator from Connecticut is under serious consideration to be McCain's vice president. Lieberman and McCain are very close friends and Lieberman has been a stalwart ally of McCain's on the Iraq war issue for years.

If Lieberman is the pick, it will be history: the same person as the vice presidential nominee for both major parties within an eight year period!

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Thank you!: Beach volleyball is teh suck! During the Olympics we will get excited about stuff we care less about for the other 47 months, but beach volley and synchronized diving are just horrible!

Chris Cillizza: I mean, seriously. Misty May-Treanor and Keri Walsh haven't lost a match in about eight years. Is it really exciting to -- night after night -- watch them destroy teams from Norway? No.

Here's an idea: The United States' women's field hockey team has qualified for the Olympics for the first time since 1996. How about showing some more of their games?

If only I owned a television network...

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Gainesville, Va.: If McCain wants to make a splash and grab some media attention when he announces his vice presidential pick, he needs to somehow figure out a way to get Michael Phelps into the shot. Maybe they could stage it at his pool, with Phelps swimming laps in the background. Or at a diner while he consumes his mass quantities for breakfast. Or they could just do it in front of his house in Baltimore.

Chris Cillizza: Very good idea. Another thought: Dara Torres. Like McCain, she is an elder statesman/woman in her chosen profession and is still keeping up with the youngsters.
Two people not to pick: that wrestler who threw away his bronze medal and that weightlifter whose elbow bent the wrong way.

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Fairfax County, Va.: Now that the Obama family vacation is over (and boy it is ridiculous that such a normal event is even a topic for discussion), did it have any effect, positive or negative, on the shape, momentum or outcome of the campaign?

Chris Cillizza: Nope.

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Boston: Chris, is there anything to the chatter about John Kerry emerging as a dark horse in the Obama veepstakes? Personally, I think it'd be a poor choice. To channel Everett Dirksen, it would be a mistake to allow him to lead us down the path to defeat again.

washingtonpost.com: The Fix: Kerry's New Ad and the Return of the Nominee? (washingtonpost.com, Aug. 13)

Chris Cillizza: I don't think there is all that much there when it comes to the Kerry boomlet. While Kerry is appealing on paper -- experienced voice on paper, military service -- the damage down to him in the 2004 race still lingers.

Also, it would be hard for Obama to make the case that Kerry fits with his own fresh-faced appeal.

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Rolla, Mo.: After seeing how the idea of Lieberman or Ridge went over like a lead zeppelin because of their pro-choice positions, doesn't it seem McCain has at least as perilous a choice as Obama now?

Chris Cillizza: Great Zeppelin reference. I am not sure either Ridge or Lieberman will ultimately climb the stairway to heaven and become the pick.

That said, I think McCain is less worried about offending the houses of the holy than past nominees; the political environment is so bad that I think he can justify almost any pick as necessary to give the party a chance to win in the fall.

When the levee breaks over the next 10 days or so, all will be revealed.

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If it's gonna be Veepstakes Day on the chat: ... can you let me know now, so I won't waste my time? Why anybody in politics thinks they have a special ESP-line into the minds of the campaigns with regard to veep choice is beyond me. Has the media (as a Village) ever really named a veep pick correctly before the fact?

Chris Cillizza: I am more than happy to field questions about House, Senate and governors races.

To quote someone, bring it on!

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The House: You mentioned that you think the Democrats can get up to at most 57 or 58 seats in the Senate; any predictions on pick-up goals (realistic or otherwise) for the House?

Chris Cillizza: There's no doubt Democrats will make gains in November. The question is how big those gains will be.

On the one hand, House Democrats have a huge financial advantage and the scads of Republican retirements have given Democrats lots of target of opportunity.

On the other, Democrats picked up 30 seats in 2006 -- meaning that a number of seats they might have taken back in 2008 are already in their camp, lessening their ability to make major gains.

My guess would be that House Democrats will pick up somewhere between 12 and 20 seats. But, I haven't done a detailed seat by seat analysis in a while.

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Cleveland: What's your read on the North Carolina senate race? There has been some small movement in the polls for Hagan.

Chris Cillizza: I think Hagan is an excellent candidate who will make a serious run at Dole. I also think many Democrats are suffering from a bit of irrational exuberance when it comes to their chances of knocking off Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). Dole is extremely well financed, surrounded by a savvy campaign staff and still is regarded by many in the state as a rock star politician.

Obama's decision to seriously contest North Carolina should help Hagan on turnout and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's willingness to spend heavily in the state will also help her. Still, this is not a top-tier Democratic pick opportunity yet. In the Senate Line today, I have North Carolina ranked 10th.

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Anonymous: Why do you say Franken has gotten it together up there in beautiful Minnesota? I thought he was getting his head handed to him.

washingtonpost.com: The Fix's Friday Line: Is 62 Democrats' Magic Number? (washingtonpost.com, Aug. 15)

Chris Cillizza: Franken had nowhere to go but up after a several months that would have buried most candidates. After enduring an examination of his taxes and his past writings in Playboy, Franken has had a relatively quiet past month.

Meanwhile, Sen. Norm Coleman is having to deal with allegations of a sweetheart living arrangement in Washington that threatens to linger and continue to cause trouble.

This race seems headed to a 51-49 result either way.

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Princeton, N.J.: How about a discussion of some of the Senate long-shots -- Kentucky, Texas and Oklahoma? Also, aren't the voters mad at Mitch Daniels for selling their roads to ferriners?

Chris Cillizza: Surely. First of all, I would draw a distinction between Kentucky and Texas/Oklahoma.

Kentucky is a state where Democrats have had success in recent years -- won a House seat in 2006 and the governor's race in 2007 -- and Mitch McConnell's role as the leader of Senate Republicans makes beating him a national priority for Democrats. Still, Bruce Lunsford, the Democratic nominee in Kentucky, has serious baggage from two unsuccessful primary bids for governor in 2003 and 2007, and McConnell has shown over the years that he is more than willing to go for the jugular early and often.

In Oklahoma, Democrats have a solid candidate in state Sen. Andrew Rice. And, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is not spectacular as a candidate and has some Republicans worried. But, in a presidential year, Oklahoma will act very Republican -- making it hard for Rice to pull the upset.

As for Texas, I don't see it. Sure, Sen. John Cornyn's numbers aren't great but he has two major factors in his favor: He has a big pot of campaign cash in a very expensive state in which to advertise, and Texas is very red at the federal level.

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Not the beach: Why beach volleyball is on every night: They compete in small bikinis. Duh. Why is everyone treating Corsi as if he's legit? The guy is from the lunatic fringe. If he wrote a book trumpeting his belief that Sept. 11 was an inside job, nobody would give him the time of day, but his unsubstantiated rantings about Obama are worthy of A1 treatment by the New York Times, The Washington Post, on CNN. ... And don't tell me it's because he's at the top of the best-seller list. Bulk sales game the system, and everyone knows it.

Chris Cillizza: Beach volleyball explained!

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Baltimore: Chris, state-by-state polls on Pollster.com and other places seem to show Obama making progress almost across the board. However, in the past month, the political markets (Intrade) have him falling from an almost 2 to 1 favorite to about 3 to 2. Any sense why? Most polls seem to show that, even if Obama doesn't win any current "tossups," he'd have enough electoral votes to win. Thanks for all the great writing.

Chris Cillizza: There is an odd disconnect between state polling and national polling in the presidential race. On a state by state level, Obama has reason to be confident as he is running ahead in a number of key battlegrounds and is within shouting distance in some states that Republicans have consistently won at the presidential level in recent elections. Nationally, however, Obama's lead continues to hover in the mid single digits.
Why? I am honestly not sure.
But, remember that the Obama campaign regularly dismissed national polls in their primary race against Hillary Clinton, and they proved to be right. Are we seeing a repeat performance in the general election?

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Importance of conventions: Yes, they are scripted, but no one can predict who will impress or not. Just look at who rose to prominence as a result of his performance at the last Democratic convention -- Barack Obama.

Chris Cillizza: Exactly.

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Reading, Pa.: Mark Udall in Colorado has a good family name and outstanding credentials for the changing Colorado demographic. How closely will Obama work with some of these down-ticket candidates ?

Chris Cillizza: Mark Udall is one of two Udalls running as Democrats for the Senate this year. (Tom Udall, his cousin, is a strong favorite in the open seat New Mexico contest.)

My guess is that Obama will help Udall more than Udall will help Obama. By targeting Colorado and putting significant resources into voter identification and turnout, Obama will make sure that every Democrat or Democratic-leaning voters in Colorado will get to the polls. Not every one of those people will vote for Udall but many will.

I think this election -- between Obama and Udall -- will show us just how much Colorado has changed demographically. If both win, it's fair to say that Colorado is now a Democratic leaning state. If one wins, it's a toss up/purple state heading into 2012. If neither win, we may have to revisit our assumptions about the political changes afoot in Colorado.

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Phoenix: I just read a wire service report that Obama has outraised McCain among US soldiers and has a six-to-one advantage in money raised from troops serving abroad. Your comments?

washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Obama Tops in Donations from Troops (washingtonpost.com, Aug. 14)

Chris Cillizza: Well, Matt Mosk at The Post wrote this up yesterday on The Trail. It's attached below.

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Chris Cillizza: Folks, I have to duck out a little early today to finish up the Veepstakes Line. Remember: Check out The Fix this afternoon for the latest and greatest ranking of who will be vice president, and e-mail NBC and tell them: more field hockey, less beach volleyball. Thanks for spending the hour with me.

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