Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Chris Cillizza, washingtonpost.com political blogger was online live from the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., on Monday, Sept. 1 at 11 a.m. ET. He was relieved at 11:30 a.m. by Post White House reporter Dan Eggen in Washington, who will look at the latest administration news and Bush and Cheney's trip to speak at the convention.

Read the latest from Chris Cillizza's blog, The Fix, or on his Twitter feed

The transcript follows.

Get the latest campaign news live on washingtonpost.com's The Trail, or subscribe to the daily Post Politics Podcast.

Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning everyone...I'm here in St. Paul for the Republican National Convention although all eyes today are on the Gulf Coast where Hurricane Gustav has made landfall in Louisiana.

The convention is effectively on hold until the impact of Gustav can be analyzed with all but the formalities of the day canceled.

Even so, there is LOTS of politics still happening including the ramping up of the "get to know you" process with surprise vice presidential pick Sarah Palin.

I'm only here for 30 minutes so let's get to your questions.

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Maryland: Chris, I am a C-SPAN junkie and an Obama supporter. One thing I have heard over and over again from callers is that "Palin has as much experience as Obama because she was a governor for two years and he was a senator for two years." How much does eight years in the Illinois senate count for in the great American voter zeitgeist? Or am I missing the forest for the trees because the real story is that the McCain campaign is now the one defending its ticket against inexperience?

Chris Cillizza: In picking Palin, McCain's campaign effectively ceded the idea that the election would be a choice between experience and change.

Palin has only two years of experience in statewide elective office, as short a resume as any choice for vice president in modern political history.

In exchange, the McCain campaign hopes, Palin brings an energy and a vitality to the GOP ticket that it previously lacked. It also reinforces the idea of McCain as reformer and allows Republicans to make the argument that their ticket will shake up Washington as much if not more than the Democratic ticket.

It's a gamble -- without doubt. But, McCain seems to have come to the conclusion that he could not win a race that was simply a referendum on change vs experience, and felt the need to shake things up.

Mission accomplished.

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Natick, Mass.: Is Palin scheduled for any campaign appearances or interviews away from McCain yet?

Chris Cillizza: Her schedule is a bit up in the air at the moment because of the hurricane but I would assume that after the conclusion of the convention this week she will set out on her own.

I know that many people have been critical of McCain always being at Palin's side but, in truth, Obama and Joe Biden have taken much the same approach in the runup and immediate aftermath of the Democratic convention.

My guess is that Palin is in the midst of a crash course on national campaigning before setting out on her own next week. The hurricane is actually taking the spotlight off of the Alaska governor for the moment and allowing her time to get up to speed without having the crush of media covering her.

Next week will be a critical time for Palin. Can she show a familiarity with national issues? Can she be a convincing commander in chief? Is she ready for this?

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Natick, Mass.: When John McCain says he might deliver his speech from the Disaster Zone, I get really worried that it will be like that awful speech Bush gave from Jackson Square post-Katrina.

Chris Cillizza: I think the McCain campaign is well aware of the potential political hazards of being seen in any way, shape or form of reminding voters of the way the Bush Administration handled Hurricane Katrina.

McCain's team sees this as a real chance to show how a President McCain would (and will) handle such a natural disaster far differently than the current president.

So, my guess -- and it is only a guess -- is that McCain won't ultimately speak from the Gulf Coast because of the real risk that it would be seen as politicizing a tragedy.

Time will tell, however. Until the storm moves through the Gulf Coast and cleanup begins, it's hard to know what the next (or best) political move will be.

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Boulder, Colo.: Hi Chris -- I enjoy your super-detailed political knowledge and your direct, informal style! So, about Sarah Palin -- do you know of any polling that supports the idea that female, Democratic Hillary supporters who are/were cool to Obama would support McCain now that Palin is on the ticket? Seems far-fetched to me. Are white-collar men more likely to change their support? Or is this all about the pro-life, evangelical Republicans?

Chris Cillizza: Thanks for the compliment. Much appreciated -- especially given that this is my ninth straight day away from Mrs. Fix. (That's nine more days than I like to spend apart from her.)

My sense is that Palin's pick is less about attracting disgruntled supporters of Sen. Clinton and more about winning over the much larger group of moderate Democratic and Republican women who have the potential to be the key swing group this fall.

Palin is more conservative -- particularly on social issues -- than most of these women but the McCain campaign is clearly hoping that her story (basketball star, former beauty queen, five children) appeals to this group even if they disagree with her on some issues.

Palin does also shore up McCain's support among social conservative voters; she has drawn rave reviews from the party's base and is widely seen as "one of them".

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Washington: Chris do you think it's a blessing in disguise that Bush and Cheney aren't speaking at the convention? I always thought it would be difficult to distance yourself from someone who was sitting next to your wife at the convention.

Chris Cillizza: Absolutely. I wrote about this yesterday (can we provide the link?) on The Fix.

The reality is that the McCain campaign would have preferred neither President Bush nor Vice President Cheney speak at the convention this week but, in a bow to political reality, they had to extend the invitation.

The only way McCain can win this race is to prove to voters that he is not -- as Democrats claim -- an heir to the Bush presidency and that is a VERY tough case to make if the commander in chief is a large presence at the convention.

Without Bush or Cheney at the convention, McCain will likely avoid a series of stories about the relationship he has with each man -- a HUGE benefit for his campaign.

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washingtonpost.com: The Fix: Gauging Gustav's Political Impact (washingtonpost.com, Aug. 31)

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Southwest Nebraska: Is McCain in danger of winning the news cycle and losing the campaign?

Chris Cillizza: There are questions about whether Palin's pick was simply an attempt to "flip the script" of the campaign that will have a powerful short term impact but could backfire in the long term.

I think it is far too early in this process to draw those sorts of conclusions as Palin is roughly 72 hours into her life as a vice presidential nominee.

Could she flop? Absolutely. But, there also remains a real possibility that Palin will outperform the relatively low expectations for her and emerge as a star on the national stage as a fresh faced reformer.

It's just too soon to know how this storyline will play out. Palin's speech this week at the Republican National Convention -- if it happens -- will be a major moment in defining which way the Palin pick will go.

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Chris Cillizza: Folks,

That's all I have time for today. Make sure to check The Fix throughout today (and the remainder of the convention) for the latest and greatest in politics.

And, tune in to www.washingtonpost.com/postpoliticstv today at 3 pm eastern time for FOUR HOURS of coverage from the convention floor -- and constant updates on Hurricane Gustav.

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Seattle: Chris, the thing that struck me about the Palin pick was that, by giving up the experience argument, McCain is now running a Obama-lite campaign. Isn't that one of the factors that helped to sink Kerry -- that he was running as a less-conservative version of Bush?

Dan Eggen: Good morning everyone. I can never replace Chris...but I can try to follow up for him in this chat!

This is the central question surrounding the pick--it's clear that the experience argument has been cast aside, or at least dramatically altered. As Chris and others have noted, it's a clear sign that the McCain campaign felt that, in the end, that argument alone could not work for them.

The difference with the Kerry example it would seem to me is the benefit Palin brings McCain in shoring up the evangelical vote. Kerry did not have that kind of problem with the Democratic base, or certainly not to the degree McCain has struggled with it.

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Rockville, Md.: So now that Gustav has taken over the convention of the Republicans, I wonder if this is more a disadvantage for Team McCain. After all, he was supposed to sort of debut Gov. Palin to the public (and maybe explain why he chose Palin over, say, Pawlenty, Romney, Ridge or even Giuliani) Does the attention on the storm hurt the Republicans? I just think that the storm steals the Republicans' thunder, but on the other hand, canceling the Bush/Cheney night could be a godsend, right?

Dan Eggen: Most of the initial reporting and chatter focused on the drawbacks of Gustav to McCain campaign, but I think conventional wisdom is swinging the other way for several good reasons. First, the storm took Bush and Cheney out of the convention, at least for now. Second, as McCain showed in his trip to Mississippi on Sunday, a calamity like this can allow him to do "presidential" things like visit the impacted region.

But the danger if he goes too far is that McCain could get criticized for being "presumptuous," as he and his aides have long argued about Obama in regards to the Berlin speech or the abandoned campaign seal. It's a balancing act, and a lot depends on the storm and its aftermath.

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washingtonpost.com: This Time, There Won't Be Cake (Post, Sept. 1)

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San Francisco: The last time a hurricane hit the Gulf Coast, John Sidney McCain III ate cake with George Bush while people drowned in the streets of New Orleans. Three years later, McCain puts an underqualified rookie in a position that's way over their head, like Bush putting horse pageant expert Michael Brown in charge of FEMA. McCain wants to continue George Bush's Peter Principle management style.

Dan Eggen: I think I know who you're voting for San Francisco! This is a good point, however, and it's the flip side of the argument that somehow Gustav will turn out to be a net positive for McCain. The bottom line is that no matter what happens with the storm and the federal response, it will be measured against Katrina, with all of the baggage that entails--including the unfortunate birthday cake photo-op with McCain on Aug. 29, 2005.

President Bush has signaled his intention to avoid such imagery problems by not only canceling his convention speech, but also by traveling today to Texas to talk to relief workers and some evacuees.

Our White House column today discussed some of this.

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Ambler, Pa.: Regarding comments on the potential benefit for McCain on going to the scene. Do you think the public may look at it a photo op? McCain is not yet the president. Don't you think local officials will have enough on their hands without having to handle his entourage of Secret Service, reporters, etc.?

Dan Eggen: Never underestimate the power of photo ops. See aforementioned birthday cake.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: State legislators are noting that Obama, if elected, would be the president with the second longest experience at having ever been a state legislator who became president. This is good for those who believe that state governments serve as the laboratories for democracy and that what works or fails at the state level sets the directions for federal policies, and thus knowledge at the state government level is very useful to understanding federal policies.

On the other side of the equation, the President with the most experience as a state legislator was John Tyler, who didn't particularly distinguish himself as President (although times were very different then). How much recognition is given by political analysts such as yourself to state legislative experience?

Dan Eggen: This is an interesting question. I think it's safe to say that state legislative experience often gets short shrift in the imperfect game of weighing whether someone has enough "experience" for national office. You're right that knowing how the sausage-making works in a legislature can be beneficial to an executive branch official.

But state executive posts--governor, lt. governor--seem to trump state or even federal legislative experience to many. You see this in the McCain camp's argument that somehow Palin, who was a small-town mayor less than two years ago, has more "executive experience" than Obama or even Biden.

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The "ick" factor: If photos emerge of Sarah Palin and the dead game she's shot, won't that turn off more potential voters than it will motivate?

Dan Eggen: I would imagine that voters turned off by hunting are already going to be predisposed against Palin, whether there are photos or not. Palin's outdoorsy side is a big selling point for her--I heard at least one Republican refer to her as having an "Annie Oakley" persona. This is mean positively, of course, as opposed to the famous moment in the primary when Obama derided Hillary Clinton for acting like that same frontier woman.

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Gainesville, Va.: Chris, what are the chances that "Troopergate" will blow up in McCain's face? The report from Alaska legislature's investigation is due sometime in October.

Dan Eggen: There is already a chorus of howling from the left about this scandal, and the facts so far do not look great for Palin. But I have to wonder how much traction this kind of intensely local and nuanced controversy will have on a national level.

Similarly, the "Bridge to Nowhere" question--in which Democrats are questioning whether Palin favored that boondoggle before saying she was against it--also suffers from being muddy and hard to grasp. The most damaging scandals tend to be the simplest ones.

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Re: Photo Op: Forget the photo op potential benefit/disaster -- what McCain should be worried about in visiting is that Joe Biden will follow up with the cost of his visit in taxpayer dollars and relief flights diverted and then compare it to how much Obama's mailing list raised in charity donations. "Republicans like Bush and McCain talk big and take good photos, but don't deliver the goods like Democrats do!" Do you think a photo will play well after that line?

Dan Eggen: It's an interesting attack idea, but my impression so far is that the Obama campaign is treading very lightly here. Yesterday, for example, I believe Sen. Obama said McCain's visit to Mississippi was appropriate--he could easily have demurred or even offered soft criticism.

I imagine what both sides want to avoid is any negative impression in connection with Gustav--they want to appear to remain above the fray of politics.

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New York: Sarah Palin is the younger generation's Sandra Day O'Connor, riding out of the West and flummoxing everyone. Yay -- or more appropriately, yippee!

Dan Eggen: This is an interesting take on Palin. Her bio certainly makes for an amazing tale, and these kinds of personal impressions are crucial in a national political race.

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New York: I hope the pared-down convention has not dampened your journalistic zeal. Perhaps you can help me understand why the Republicans seem strategically smarter then the Democrats. The naming of Sarah Palin was a great move, at least for the past three news cycles. Longer-term, it seems to have bolstered their base. What's up with that? Obama has a degree from Harvard and his team is bright, yet they are stymied strategically at times.

Dan Eggen: Well, we won't be able to assess the relative wisdom of each side until November. But your concern is one that seems to be shared by a good number of Democrats--"Everyone hates Republicans, so why hasn't Obama sewed it up?"

The answers are complicated and much-debated, but I think it's fair to say two fundamentals about each candidate have kept this race in play: 1) McCain is not a regular Republican (whether or not you believe he's sincere about it) and 2) Obama is still viewed as a relative unknown, with a profile that is unprecedented in a race for the presidency.

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American or Alaskan?: Sarah Palin still talks about how being McCain's vice president would benefit Alaska; does she realize that Alaska's interests may conflict with the overall interests of the U.S.? And does Alaska's proximity to Eastern Russia really qualify as experience in foreign affairs? Was she vetted?

Dan Eggen: I guess I'm not sure why Alaska's interests might conflict with U.S. interests any more than any other state. That said, the notion that Alaska's proximity to the easternmost regions of Russia qualifies her in foreign policy is creative, to say the least. But her supporters do seem to be emphasizing it so perhaps it is persuasive to a lot of voters.

The McCain camp insists she was vetted as any other candidate, but there is reporting out there indicating that they did not take a lot of the extra steps a campaign might normally take when checking a VP candidate's background.

Well, folks, time for me to sign off. I know you all join me in hoping for the best for all who remain along the Gulf Coast, and those who have evacuated in front of the storm.

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