Real Estate Live

Welcome to Real Estate Live, an online discussion of the Washington area housing market with Post Real Estate editor Maryann Haggerty and columnist Elizabeth Razzi.

Maryann has been with The Post for 18 years and has served as real estate editor for the last five years. She's been a business and real estate editor and reporter for about 25 years. In all that time, she still hasn't figured out where you can find a lovely but inexpensive house in a charming neighborhood.

Razzi is the Local Address columnist for The Post's Sunday Real Estate section in Business. She's written about real estate and other personal finance topics for magazines and newspapers since the days of double-digit interest rates. She is also the author of two consumer-advice books, "The Fearless Home Buyer" (2006) and "The Fearless Home Seller" (2007).

Today they'll discuss the local housing market -- from condos and investment properties to contracts and mortgages.

For more on local real estate, visit washingtonpost.com's Real Estate section.

The transcript follows.

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Maryann Haggerty: We had some technical problems right before the chat was scheduled to start, so the beginning here might be a bit slow.

Thanks for joining us. As of this second, the House is preparing for its vote on the big bailout bill...

Let's talk about real estate.

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Elizabeth Razzi: Hi there, everyone. Getting a late start due to technical glitches; I apologize for that. So, let's go...

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Still shopping in Arlington, Va.: It seems to me that there are three relevant house prices: (a) the price the buyer wants; (b) the price the buyer can realistically get; and (c) the price I can afford. In this market, b is usually lower than a. Sometimes b and c are the same, and sometimes c is lower than b. Although it doesn't cost the seller anything to say "no" to my offer, some sellers seem to be offended by offers under their "a" price. Is there any way for the buyer to soften the blow? At the height of the market, would-be buyers used to include personal letters in hopes of persuading a seller to take their offer, and I have thought about including something like that with my offer -- especially when c is lower than b, or much lower than a. What are your reactions and suggestions?

Maryann Haggerty: You need to keep these things businesslike. It's not personal. To buttress your bid, you or your agent should present the comps that you used.

Don't have comps? If your reason for the bid is actually to kick the seller when he's down, then possibly it's understandable that he is a bit peeved...

Elizabeth Razzi: Keep it businesslike, sure. But you can still try to be pleasant about it. Criticizing someone's home is like telling them their kid is ugly. Telling them it's overpriced is like telling them their kid is not very bright. Either may be true, but you can try to be diplomatic about it. Point to the comparable sales. Be sympathetic. But stick to your guns if you're offering a fair price for today's market.

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Washington, D.C.: Would love it if the Post would schedule a follow-up to the Hope for Homeowners program now that it's in effect. We made calls to 5 different FHA lenders today and no one could offer any info or even agree to take an application.

A friend of a friend is a loan officer at a well-known bank, and reported his opinion that the banking industry has been dragging their feet on this program and will offer these refi's to only their own current mortgagees with no subordinate loans.

If this is how it turns out, then citizen's are going to continue to be bitter about tax $$ being used to let the banks off the hook for bad loans, but with no relief for the homeowner.

Elizabeth Razzi: Well, keep in mind the new Hope refinance program has been in effect only two days. The lenders just learned the rules on Wednesday. It's true, though, that lenders have said that writing off part of the principal owed (key to those refinances) is their last resort. You need to work with your current lender on this, to see if they'll agree to the write-down.

Maryann Haggerty: Actually, I don't think they even have the precise rules yet. Here's the link to the story in yesterday's paper:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/01/AR2008100102861.html?sub=AR

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Boonsboro, Md.: Has the Post given any thought to redoing the housing search function in their online Real estate section? In the Philadelphia area, I can select an area from a map of the city and it displays available units in those zip codes, like Center City or University Area. Much better than the Post's format.

Maryann Haggerty: Actually, the Web folks are working on that. We hope they have it all new and improved pretty quickly, but it turns out this stuff is time-consuming.

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Washington, D.C.: I'm wondering what a tenant who decides to move out is required to do to help the landlord rerent the unit. Once, a military type told me to degay the apartment before he showed it to others. Is that legal?

Maryann Haggerty: "De-gay?" While that's offensive, and in some circumstances might be illegal hate speech, I don't think it's mentioned in your lease.

He can ask you to keep it clean and presentable. If your lease requires, he must give you 24 hours notice. I doubt he can dictate your decor. To do that, he has to wait until you move out.

If you're leaving before the lease is up, it is very much in your interst for the landlord to find a new tenant ASAP.

Elizabeth Razzi: Well fooey on him. Maybe it's a fair housing violation, but are you going to bother to fight it? You're moving out anyway.Insults aside, it's within his rights to ask you to change anything permanent, like paint colors. Read your lease. If he doesn't like your decorating, well, too bad for him.

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Severna Park, Md.: Just a comment -- if the bailout bill passes as expected, the one main thing I am going to do is make sure I sell my (still overvalued) house within the next two years before the 700 billion runs out and we are right back where we are today.

Then I'll rent until the fire sales begin...

Elizabeth Razzi: The vote is underway now, actually. Good luck with that highly imaginitive plan...and you clearly don't understand the bailout bill.

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Lanham, Md.: How much of a haircut do you take if you sell to those "ugly houses" companies? I'm hoping to move from the house I've lived in for 12 years, and while it's far from a rat trap, it shows the signs of having been occupied by someone who isn't really that into home ownership.

Elizabeth Razzi: Don't do it! They're looking for half off TODAY'S value or better (for them).

Maryann Haggerty: It's worth at least putting some effort into a sale or rental, because after 12 years, you probably do have equity to protect.

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Fairfax, Va.: I'm submitting early so I don't have to do it at work.

I can't stand my job anymore, so I'm actively pursuing a new one. I'm also hoping to move next summer at the earliest. It'd be great to find a job, give it a few months to make sure it's a keeper, then look for a place nearby to give myself an easy commute.

My question is, how much stock do potential lenders put in a homebuyer's current job longevity? Will it be any harder to get a loan if I've only been at a new job for about six months? For perspective, I make about $70,000 now, I've been at my job more than six years, my only debt is my current mortgage, and I have a very high credit score.

Elizabeth Razzi: If you can show that you've been making as much or more money in the same field, the lender will be pleased.

Maryann Haggerty: What they care about is that you do have the job. (An offer letter can often be sufficient--that's how so many people manage to buy houses right when they transfer across country.)

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Falls Church, Va.: Is there a way to tell if a property has sold? We have a foreclosed property on our street and there seems to someone living in it. I can't believe that the bank would be renting it, so I assume it's been sold. Any thoughts?

Maryann Haggerty: Check with the Recorder of Deeds for the city or county (I don't know whether you're in city of Falls Church or the part of Falls Church that's in Fairfax County.) Sales are recorded within days--sometimes hours--of settlement. Now, how fast they get up on the recorder's Web site varies immensely, so you may actually want to plan on a phone call or visit. The office employees can be wonderfully helpful if you're nice to them. No sign of a sale? Call the housing office to complain. Consider calling the police, too, if you have any solid reason to believe there are squatters, like perhaps a visible broken window.

If you saw a moving truck, I would recommnd knocking on the door while carrying a plate of cookies and introducing yourself as the new neighbors. Have we reached a point where that's no longer possible?

Elizabeth Razzi: Absolutely, a cheery welcome to the new folks is the best way to satisfy your curiousity.

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Philadelphia: My wife and I are finding that some of the homes we are looking at are really old (70-80 years). They seem to be in good shape and many are updated, and of course, we would make sure to get home inspections, but is there any guidance on the age of homes? We recently moved from Falls Church to the Philly area, so it's a huge change in home styles and age. We aren't against doing renovations, but is there any general thought on how well a house will hold up after a certain number of years? I'm erring on the side of holding out for a newer home, but this area has very few newer homes. Thanks!

Elizabeth Razzi: Aha! The old my wife and I disagree question! I assure you, in an 80-year old house, not all of it is 80 years old. The walls, floors, foundation, yes. Electricity and plumbing ought to have had some updates. Get a structural engineer to check the foundation if you're worried. Otherwise, I suggest a nice dinner for two and talk of compromise.

Maryann Haggerty: Generally, the ones that have already lasted 80 years were built pretty solidly. (The between-the-wars, before-the-depression period of home construction was a pretty good one.) Junk thrown up in a hurry back then has already been torn down.

IN many place,s the weak spot right now is home built in the 1970s-early '80s -- not the high point of American craftsmanship in the first place, and a lot of major elements have a 30-40 life span and are ready to go

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Rockville, Md.: Hi there. I'm submitting a petition to review the tax assessed value on my home. The form asks if I'd like to schedule an appearance for a hearing, or just have them review it without me. The hearing sounds really intimidating, but I'd be willing to do it if I thought it would boost my chances of having the value lowered. Do you know which is the better option? Thanks.

Elizabeth Razzi: If you want to argue a point, why let the other guy do all the talking? Go to the hearing, and take with you lots of information on the current assessments of other homes like yours.

Maryann Haggerty: Go to the hearing! Otherwise, you'll always wonder what-if

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Gatithersburg, Md.: Does having an agent play any useful part if you're buying a new condo from a developer. I'm thinking of selling my (very small) townhouse using an agent and buying a new property. Does that help anything, or would I have to pay an extra buyers-agent commission?

Elizabeth Razzi: If you've already been to the developer's open house and signed his guest book, that developer will probably resist paying your agent. Agents can be very helpful in arriving at today's market price for that condo.

Maryann Haggerty: They can also be a big help in negotiating for upgrades, especially if you're not a very good negotiator.

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Silver Spring, Md: Here's one thing I don't understand about the current financial crisis. Some people say that something needs to be done to prop up housing prices. But wasn't the rising home prices actually fed by the existence and availability of those wacky subprime loans? I sat here watching these D.C. area home prices soar and wondered how in the world people like school teachers, policemen and other middle class folks could even get in the housing market here. Wouldn't lower but stable housing prices actually be better for all involved?

Elizabeth Razzi: That's a good question. Propping up prices can't really be done, and it wouldn't be a very good idea to try. Soaring prices (fueled by cheap & easy credit) were the start of this financial crisis. But the emergency right now is that the whole banking system is clogged with bad, money-losing loans--the very ones that enabled prices to soar a few years ago. But because the banks are close to paralyzed, hoarding their cash and refusing to lend, practically every aspect of the economy is being dragged down. Home-price stability would be a wonderful relief, but that can't happen until buyers actually can get the loans needed to buy up the glut of foreclosures.

Maryann Haggerty: A lot of those "some people" have an interest in propping up the prices -- because they're builders or whatever.

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Buying Soon: What is the standard range of downpayments required for first-time homebuyers who aren't low income? I've heard everything from 5-20%. I'm planning to buy in about 3 years, and want to make sure I've planned ahead adequately.

Maryann Haggerty: Things are in a major state of flux right now.

FHA requires 3.5 percent. There's no requirement that you be a low-income or first-time buyer.

Things seemed to be settling at about 10 percent in the non-FHA market, but who knows? Availabilit of loans is what this whole credit crisis is about.

You need at least 20 percent to completely avoid private mortgage insurance (or FHA.)

I don't know where things will settle in 3 years. So save as much as you can...

Elizabeth Razzi: When the market returns to a more normal, functioning state, I won't expect 20 percent to be the standard downpayment. Buyers with have few other debts and a good & steady income will be able to find loans for less than 20 percent down. And FHA is there right now.

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Calverton: I'm a single woman thinking of changing apartment complexes. How do I find a "gay" one?

Maryann Haggerty: I would look for someplace festive, happy -- where people smile a lot?

Elizabeth Razzi: Why not just ask your girlfriends? Seriously... it's grownup time...

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Arlington, Va.: What do you define as a "charming neighborhood"? That seems very different for families with or without kids, as well as for singles.

Maryann Haggerty: I think "charming neighborhood" is something you define yourself. It's in my canned intro because that's the question people have asked me for years. (As if I know which neighborhood they want to live in.)

Fortunately, different people have different tastes.

Elizabeth Razzi: It's not necessarily a families/single thing. I happen to like a mix of ages, lots of trees and varying home styles. And that's decidedly not-charming to some people, which is cool.

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Upper Marlboro, Md.: I think I know what you are going to say, but let me verify. We are selling a home in NE that my husband inherited from his mother. It is empty, save one piece of furniture. Though there has been some interest, it isn't moving at all. Would it be better to "stage" the house? Should we just chuck it all and rent to some nice professor from Catholic U (nearby)?

Maryann Haggerty: Why try to sell right now if you don't have to -- especially when you actually DO have an obvious short-term rental market in that neighborhood???

Elizabeth Razzi: Oh my, yes. Rent if you can carry it until better times.

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Richmond, Va.: Homes built before WWII are of better quality and will last longer than a house built last year. Hundred year Old growth wood was used which is denser than the new two year pine. The old wood is as strong as iron. Construction techniques were more rigerous (supports as often as the honorable carpenter saw fit rather than the minimum they can get away with) I coudl go on and on. But a house Pre 1940 will last hundreds of years. Houses today are built to last 20 years.

Elizabeth Razzi: It's true that they don't make wood like they used to.

Maryann Haggerty: That's not true of ALL houses built in the olden days. They built junk then, too. Most of it hasn't lasted. But the stuff that was built for the middle and upper classes was indeed often of high quality.

Also, houses built now generally use engineered wood that's stronger than the real stuff. And many contemporary techniques are better than the olden days, too. It's not as if home construciton is the only area in which we have had no technical advances in a century.

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Washington, D.C.: So the bailout's passage (with tax extenders included) means that the DC homebuyer tax credit WILL be available for purchases this year -- $5,000 that need not be repaid (unlike the $7,500 credit that Congress passed earlier this year)...

Elizabeth Razzi: That's right. It will be available for purchases dating back to Jan. 1, 2007 and until Dec. 31, 2009.

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Laurel, Md.: Prince Georges property taxes were due this week, based on updated appraisal values from the previous three years. So now everyone in the county has an official government document stating how much their house in allegedly worth. Since there are a lot of sources of price trends, is there any that compare how much homes are actually selling for now compared to tax appraisal values?

Maryann Haggerty: Well, all assessments are public.

All house sale prices are public.

So if someone cared, they could correlate the data. I've seen that done for academic papers, but not in the real world.

Maryann Haggerty: Tho now that I thnk of it, I do rememebr seeing one interesting analysis of this in, I think, the Philadelphia area. But they mostly focused on whether the assessments met some very complex Pennsylvania-only formula, which seemed irrelevant here (where jurisdictions are required to use 100% value, not the case in Pennsylvania.

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Herndon, Va.: I just don't understand who came out on top with this whole subprime mortgage lending deal if these same banks can't get their money back. Or did they resale those loans already and they aren't the ones getting hit?

Maryann Haggerty: Everything has been sold, sliced, resold, resliced. The problem may have started with Joe getting a subprime loan, but it has been magnified almost beyond comprehension by what Wall Street did to those loans.

Elizabeth Razzi: Lots of people thought they'd made huge bucks on this whole subprime deal...but that was a mirage. Poof. Profits gone. That's why we're in this mess.

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Laurel, Md.: Picking up on one of Maryann's comments... I own a 1983 townhouse that I suspect was built on the cheap (because they were going to sell it with a 14% mortgage). Do you know a good book or website of things to inspect for low build quality, even if they haven't actually broken yet?

Maryann Haggerty: I can vaguely visualize one on my book shelf at home, but can't recall the title. But yes, there are many guides to quality construction/home inspection for non-pros. Swing by your library or bookstore and browse.

After I had owned by 1970s-built hourse for a few years, I hired a home inspector to come in and re-inspect thep lace and give me a list of to-dos. He caught all that junky flashing, etc., that I was trying to ignore.

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Falls Church, Va.: Ouch! My TH complex was built around '81 and '82 -- all brick. On my tax assessment information with the county -- the language seem like the buildings were well-built. How can you tell if our homes were built with substandards, etc.?

Elizabeth Razzi: Don't rely on the tax assessment as an indication of quality construction. They just note if it's built to fancy mansion standards or with more common grades of material, etc. If a home was built in 81-82 with substandard stuff, the problems ought to be pretty evident -- or fixed by now.

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Severna Park, Md.: Elizabeth -- in response to your comment that I "clearly don't understand the bailout bill," hmmm, I think I understand it as well as anyone. I think what NONE of us knows (even you) is what the result of the bill will be. So, I'm trying to be prepared this time instead of being left wondering where the equity in my house went.

Elizabeth Razzi: Hey, I don't know how this thing will play out, or what all the unintended consequences will be. But I do know it's not about propping up prices. It's about making credit markets work. I certinly hope it's successful at that. And I encourage you to rent as long as you like.

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Also, houses built now generally use engineered wood that's stronger than the real stuff: I've had construction managers for big home companies tell me they spec out their materials at 20 years.

Elizabeth Razzi: Well, they use engineered wood for things like roof trusses, and you're right, they do last longer. But 2x4's aint what they used to be. They're not even 2 inches by 4 inches. And finish lumber used on the exterior, for things like window frames, has a much greater tendency to rot than years ago.

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55+ market: In about two years, I expect to start looking for a condo/townhouse in a 55+ community, selling my coop apartment, which I bought in 1990. Putting aside the specific issues related to today's credit crunch, is there something specific I need to be aware with respect to the 55+ market? I have not been successful in finding any guides on real estate in that market. Thanks for any help.

Maryann Haggerty: There are a lot of them -- more and more every week, if the books I see are any guide. That's because of hte increasing importance of the baby boomer market.

Here's a link to a story we published recently on picking a 55-plus community. (It doesn't really address resale issues. I've seen conflicting opinions on that.)By the way, sorry about not having pretty links at this point -- those technical problems are still nipping at us.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/12/AR2008091201545.html

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To worried about 80-year-old homes: I live in a 1927 bungalow and have had comments made to me by both the folks installing a new furnace and an electrician, that basically "wow, this is the most solid home I've seen in a long time -- it looks like it could last another 100 years"

Elizabeth Razzi: The test of time is a tough one...

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And many contemporary techniques are better than the olden days, too. : I looked at new houses, and with all that VINYL, you could pull parts of the house off! Nothing is more sturdy than a house built in 1920.

Elizabeth Razzi: Aw, c'mon, there are some tank-like houses being built now, with brick and hardieboard. They cost a lot, though, and tend to be very, very big.

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Beltsville: I've read that a lot of the price-comparisons are somewhat exaggerated because they don't take into account the average quality and size of houses sold. During the peak, a lot of home sales were new McMansions with jumbo loans, so the average house sold was larger and newer than the typical house-in-place; now that there are many foreclosures and other distressed sales, the median sale house is an inherently cheaper property than average. In other words, any one house has not moved its market value as much the measurements indicate.

Do any price-trend measurements take this into account?

Maryann Haggerty: When you see comparisons of median prices, home quality is not taken into account.

Same-house comparisons (Case-Shiller and OFHEO) use complex mathematical formulas to adjust for that. Then they argue over whose formula is better. There are numerous academic-sounding discussions about that on OFHEO's Web site in particular (www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx)

Elizabeth Razzi: That's right, those same-house comparisons work hard at comparing apples to apples. I'm afraid they don't (and can't) adjust for remodeling done to the same house. If a homeowner doubles the size of their home with a high-quality custom remodel, that can double their value -- but to the indexes it will show up as pure market appreciation. And there has been a lot of that type of upgrade over the past 10-20 years in the close-in Washington suburbs.

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Home Prices: I would like to remind folks that regardless of what happens with the bailout plan (pass, fail, includes buying peoples existing mortgages), home prices will have to fall before things get better. I realize that this impact homeowners financially, emotionally, and mentally, plus it just plain sucks, but it has to happen.

There are war stories about people with great credit who are being quoted 11% interest on mortgages. If people are struggling with mortgages at 5%-7% rates, then in order to get your house sold with 11% interest rates, home prices have to drop.

So, if you need to sell today, tomorrow, or the the next day, please do not list the house at what it was worth last year or, even worse, in January 2006. Thanks for the vent.

Maryann Haggerty: Vent heard.

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Re: Older houses: Purchased a 1936 Cape in Arlington four years ago. The home inspector (yes I got one even in that market) brought someone he was mentoring because the home was so old and he was disappointed because the house was so well built

Maryann Haggerty: Thanks.

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Baltimore, Md.: Ok, the Philly guy's question has me laughing. Our story: we bought a 100+ yr old house a few years ago. 18 months ago, we redid the kitchen, which required stripping down walls in both part of the original house and part of an addition dating to somewhere between the 1960s-1980s. What did we find? The original structure was amazing: beneath the lath was 13-inch-wide planks, hand-sawn and planed so that there was a consistent 1/4" gap between them -- all for something that no one would ever see again. The more recent part of the house was so structurally unsound that we had to rip it down and rebuild it from scratch (we're talking one good kick would have brought the whole thing down).

Think it's better now? I can't tell you how many model homes I've been in where incredibly sloppy workmanship screams at you from every room. If I walk into a dining room in an $800K houses, and I see a half-inch gap in the miter in the trim in the corner -- well, if they don't care enough to make the easily visible parts of their MODEL home look nice, why would I think they are going to focus on the quality of the stuff I can't see? Give me an old house any day. I would rather have something built by a craftsman who took pride in his work, than something new that was slapped together.

Maryann Haggerty: The worst? A renovator that does it on the cheap...

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Silver Spring, Md.: With a looming recession, is this a good time to buy a first home? We can easily afford the total monthly payments if we both keep our jobs but worry that it's a bad idea to make a large investment in such uncertain times. Also, how does the current metro-D.C. real estate market compare to the national trends we hear about in the news?

Elizabeth Razzi: Good questions--that are being asked by a lot of people now. First, DC, compared to national trends. The whole metro area has had falling prices, but it's been severe in spots, specifically Prince William, Loudoun, parts of Fairfax county and Prince George's. Excepting those hot spots, metro prices have not plunged like the national foreclosure hot spots, namely much of Florida, Nevada, California, Michigan and Ohio. Should you buy with recession looming? That's a tough one. Depends a lot on how secure you think your jobs are--or how easy re-employment would be. If you have an in-demand job, say two registered nurses, you're in lots better shape than, say, two journalists. Then compare what you'd spend on a home you own vs. what you'd spend on rent. How comfortable are you with the difference? If you really want to buy, your best safety valve would be to bulk up your savings so you'd have enough to cover a short spell of unemployment.

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Bethesda, Md.: We are itching to leave our house in close in Bethesda (walking distance to Friendship Heights metro) and move back into the city to either a townhouse (preferably) or a condo -- we want to be in Dupont, Logan, Glover Park, Cleveland Park, or Georgetown -- and are looking to downsize our mortgage (or move laterally). However, beyond that, our house is fine -- yes, it is small and has one bathroom, and yes we are going to be having a child soon, but it is fitting our needs. So would it be a ridiculously stupid idea to try to move now in this market? We were thinking we'd be in a better position in a year or two when (if?) the market comes back. Thoughts?

Maryann Haggerty: While the kid-to-be is still small, he or she won't really take up all that much space, so it's not urgent that you move before the birth.

Generally, I would say that prices in both the area you're leaving and the one you're targeting are some of the most stable around (and on a given house could be quite strong. Thinsg are unstable right now, tho.

(And I'd be surprised if you could get more space for less money or even same money on that move, by the way.)

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South Jersey: You two often suggest basing a bid on recent home sales, but what else can you do when homes aren't really selling? I'm finding that the data is just not there and don't really know what else to look at.

Maryann Haggerty: When there's nothing nothing nothing at all vaguely comparable, you can structure and defend a value based on rental income. (There are formulas for that; I don't have time to go over all the math--basically, you're using cap rates, as a commercial investor would.)

Or you can just take a stab in the dark. But don't fool yourself inot thinking it's anything but that.

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Elizabeth Razzi: Thank you, everyone. This Sunday's column offers some ideas on saving money in and around your home. Please feel free to chip in your own ideas in the online comments section. Have a great weekend.

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Maryann Haggerty: That about wraps it up for today.

Tomorrow's Real Estate section features a cool, little house essentially built up from almost nothing for $157K.

And on Sunday, Elizabeth tells you all sorts of ways to save money. Who knows, maybe I'll get around ot some more caulking soon myself, too.

Thanks for joining us.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Re: those 1920s houses. The term is "survivorship bias." Wikipedia explains it this way: "Survivorship bias is the tendency for failed companies to be excluded from performance studies because they no longer exist. It often causes the results of studies to skew higher because only companies which were successful enough to survive until the end of the period are included."

I agree, a lot of junk was built in the 1920s. And 80 years from now, people will look at the houses still standing from 2008 and declare, "boy, they sure knew how to build them back then." Of course, they probably won't be talking about a vinyl-covered townhouse in upper Montgomery County.

Maryann Haggerty: Whoops. One more -- I didn't know that was the term. Thanks.

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