The Root: Presidential Debate Analysis

Obama-McCain, Round 2

After the first debate between presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, Terence Samuel, deputy editor of The Root wrote: "Hardcore Obama supporters may have wanted their candidate to jab harder on Friday. But Obama knew what crowd he needed to play to. The few undecided voters left are not cheered when they see the candidates fight; they are the ones decrying negative ads, and so all that congeniality probably worked for Obama. McCain, at one point on Friday, accused Obama of not knowing the difference between tactics and strategy; the immediate verdicts on the debate tell a different story, and we'll know more when we see where white women come down in the end."

After the second debate, he wrote: "The debate essentially established the framework for the next three and a half weeks left in the campaign-change vs. too much change. The Obama campaign will continue to paint McCain as the embodiment of the status quo. The task before McCain, and maybe his only option left at this point, is to try will try to persuade voters that Obama is way too risky an option, and that a Democratic victory would represent a lurch into radicalism."

Terence Samuel was online Wednesday, October 8 to discuss the Obama-McCain debates, and the tone and direction of the presidential race in its final weeks.

A transcript follows.

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Terence Samuel: Hello everyone! This is Terence Samuel at TheRoot.com, still waking up from the Nashville debate. I was not the least bit bored, but I could understand how some people might have been. But let's talk about that and anything else you'd like. I look forward to the questions.

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Laurel: Senator Obama has done exactly what he needed to do in the two debates -- convince Americans that he's some they'd be comfortable calling "Mr. President."

There's always going to be the "But he's BLACK and a MUSLIM" crowd, but I doubt any of them have voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Carter in '76 at the latest.

Terence Samuel: I agree that the benchmarks for Obama were very clear. He had to convince people that he was up to the job and that he would be a steady hand if he got it. He has managed to do that with some help form McCain, who has not always looked so steady recently. McCain has bigger problems obviously. He has to explain the economy, the war and separate himself from the Bush administration. That is a hard play to diagram. I think with a weak hand he is doing the best he can, to only minimal effect so far.

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Arlington, VA: Did John McCain set a new record for the number of times he said "my friends" last night?

Terence Samuel:"My friends" is a rhetorical tic that McCain needs to avoid. He managed to do that in the first debate and during much of the first half of the last night's, but as he became less comfortable he resorted to it more and more. It was a clear indication that things were not going well for him

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Arlington, VA: You may not agree with me, but I'm increasingly of the opinion that John McCain doesn't want to be elected anymore. Pulling out of Michigan was a shocking move, one that signaled to me that he was giving up. And by suspending his campaign several days ago to come to Washington to vote on the bailout, he HAD to have known that he was giving Barack Obama a major opportunity to gain inroads with undecided voters. With respect to last night's debate, he struck me as doing little more than rehashing disproven rhetoric, signaling to me that he really doesn't have much of a campaign platform--not to mention that he's essentially taking all of Barack Obama's claims and twisting them around to somehow make them his own! Case in point, claiming to be the "candidate of change," by claiming that it was Obama (and not John McCain himself) that sided with oil companies on their mega tax breaks, or by claiming that Obama was part of the Washington crony establishment. None of this is original to John McCain's campaign, and like George H.W. Bush in 1992, I'm starting to have genuine doubts that John McCain really wants to be president.

Terence Samuel: There was a moment last night, when it occurred to me that McCain had given up; obviously wrong on my part. I think he is understandably frustrated with the poor cards he has been dealt. If he continues to slip in the polls his penchant for the dramatic and the erratic may lead to some interesting developments in the next three weeks.

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New York: This is a serious question - how much harm do you think Sarah Palin has done or will do to McCain's support from the more thoughtful and educated members of the GOP? I know there are some still out there, both progressive and conservative. I just want to cringe when I hear normally decent and intelligent people like Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham sing her praises as she's out there appealing to the lowest common denominator, but I can't believe others of the same stature not associated directly with the campaign feel the same way about her.

Terence Samuel: I think the serious swings we are seeing among undecideds and independents toward Obama may have as much to do with Sarah Palin as with the economy. Those people were willing to give McCain a chance, and Palin's Couric interview may have convinced them that his judgment was less than sound. But if Obama is really winning by some of the margins we are seeing in some polls, it means that some Republicans are defecting to.

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Reston, VA: I feel for the writer in Laurel. Every time I hear the "black" argument, I want to scream "he's half white and ALL human!" We have got to get over this skin thing!!!

And if he had changed his name to something "more American," the press would have a field day with that.

So I think, with all that said and done, that I'd be proud to have him as my president. Do I think he's the best candidate? No, but I think he's a good person, and I believe he is qualified to be the next president.

Terence Samuel: This is not a resolvable argument. For a long time in America half-white meant black. But as inescapable as race has been in this campaign, I find it interesting that as we approach the finish, the election has begun to resemble some we have seen before. The party in power is getting punished for the country's problems; Democrats are talking about helping the middle- and working class and Republicans are warning about Democrats being clueless in the world. Same as it ever was.

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coletrainbennett: McCain simply isn't what we are looking for. People like him, they respect him, and they know he is too far removed from this new deeply troubled and newly hopeful America. The terms of that hope and the terms of that trouble do not follow pr-established understandings about what patriotism means and whom to be skeptical of. The old America is dying, but this new one might be just as inspirational. Perhaps more. But it is already different.

Terence Samuel: coletrain may be on to something. We may look back at this election and decide that it was never in doubt, that McCain never really had a chance because he represented a party that had shot its wad and was no longer deserving of another chance. But I'll leave that for the historians. My simplest rule of politics still applies: Something is going to happen -- especially with three and a half weeks left.

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McCain's new bailout: Last night, John McCain offered this:

"So this rescue package means that we will stabilize markets, we will shore up these institutions. But it's not enough. That's why we're going to have to go out into the housing market and we're going to have to buy up these bad loans and we're going to have to stabilize home values, and that way, Americans, like Alan, can realize the American dream and stay in their home."

Isn't the original $700 billion bailout meant to buy up toxic assets, which are themselves packages of bad and suspect loans? And wasn't one of the concessions by the administration (which expanded the bill from 3 to 100 and then 450 pages) that the government would work with the homeowners of those loans to avoid foreclosure?

Lastly, if McCain is so smart for offering this, why didn't he spend his time in Washington trying to get this added to the bailout package? This strikes me as much like "I know how to get bin Laden and I will do it" statement. If he knows what to do, why has he waited until now (or why is he waiting until Jan 20) to do it?

Terence Samuel: The mortgage bailout was probably the biggest news of the night. It was a legitimate new proposal. The problem of course is that it seems to be duplicating, as you point out,the congressionally-passed bailout package. It may have made more sense to do this at the outset, but like so much of what gets said in these debates; it hard to extrapolate it out into reality.

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New York: Now that the campaign is nearing the last stretch, what are the Clintons up to? Thanks.

Terence Samuel: Can't you tell that Democrats are one big happy family these days?

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Lyme, CT.: I notice John McCain mentioned his political partner Joe Lieberman three times last night during the debates. Somehow he never mentioned his other political partner Sarah Palin. I believe voters find Sarah Palin refreshingly new and folksy, but no way do they trust her ever becoming Vice President or potentially President. Does polling now show that Palin is a liability to McCain?

Terence Samuel: I did not actually notice that, but I think it is now true that Palin is not the asset she was in the first week on September. And increasingly, she looks like a liability with any voting bloc other than the base of the GOP where she continues to be a huge hit.

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Providence, RI: RealClearPolitics' average of polls shows Obama up by about 7 points in Michigan and 11 points in Pennsylvania. I know Pennsy has four more electoral votes, but why cede a state that McCain has a better shot of winning, and continue a likely fruitless fight? Thanks.

Terence Samuel: If McCain could deny Obama Pennsylvania, it is hard to see how Obama wins, and I think until Obama's recent surges in the polls, Pennsylvania may have looked like an easier target that Michigan. Remember Obama got beaten badly in the primary in Pennsylvania, and that may have been read as a hostility to his candidacy. Hard to make that case now.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: Is it derogatory or not to refer to one's opponent as "that one"?

Terence Samuel: I don't know, but it was jarring and I think stopped everybody because it was so unusual. McCain needed to grow in stature and that was, I think, diminishing for him

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Boston, MA: Now we are hearing how John McCain really doesn't like Obama and that is why in the first debate he gave him his back and why he wants to beat him so badly. We heard the same about McCain with Romney in the primaries. Does McCain take this all too personally or does the media exaggerate it?

Terence Samuel: McCain is a very emotional guy; supposedly he does not hold grudges but gets mad and stays mad. When you are against him, he gets ugly. There is no love loss between these two, obviously. It may be classic case of the the Young Turk upsetting the established order by overthrowing the old guard, and I think McCain does take that personally.

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Washington, DC: McCain came up with a new policy proposal last night, to buy up bad mortgages and renegotiate them at a loss. Won't someone call him out on his claim in the last debate that he's going to institute a spending freeze on everything except defense and veterans affairs? That mortgage proposal would cost billions!

Terence Samuel: It would be interesting to see how he does it in the deficit environment in which the next president will have to function.

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Helena MT: My personal theory, not substantiated by anything other than friends agreeing, is that Hillary lost to Obama because the Democrats didn't want any more drama in the White House. I think McCain is losing because Americans don't want all that drama. We want a steady, plodding course, not the twists and turns that McCain promises.

Terence Samuel: There is a sense that people wanted to turn the page, and that the Obama change message was a slap against Bush, Clinton and now McCain.

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Pennsylvania: Given Barack Obama's rise in our polls over John McCain, when do you think McCain will pull out of Pennsylvania as he did from Michigan? Do you think that by November 4 Obama will be able to persuade enough Hillary supporters in other states (like neighboring West Virginia) to vote for him?

Terence Samuel: He can't pull out of Pennsylvania. That will amount to a concession speech, and if the last thing McCain has going to him is hope, he has to hope for Pennsylvania, which despite the polls, will be close. It may rain in Philadelphia, who knows.

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Jes Askin': What do you make of this "That One" business?

Terence Samuel: McCain is sometimes kind of cranky. And the 'That One' thing was a cranky moment. I saw a T-shirt already this morning that said: "That One -- For President."

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Richmond, VA: I get the feeling Palin is thinking more about her future in the GOP as a star player rather than any VP spot right now. I'm already hearing talk about a presidential run in 2012 for her and I'm not seeing many other up and comers in the GOP. Would she almost be glad to lose this one so she could get her bona fides and make a run in 2012?

Terence Samuel: That would a be a little premature, I think, given her favorables these days, but politics is a strange game obviously. In 2000, no one had ever heard of Barack Obama; Hillary Clinton was going to the Senate in preparation for her 2009 inauguration. There will be comers.

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Kokomo, Indiana: Terence - I find the reports of anger and racial threats from Palin's crowd very concerning. Is she crossing a line that could incite violence?

Terence Samuel: I think it is going to be interesting to see if that continues. If she is doing something that is feeding it, it will hurt them in the end, but it could have been just one ugly crowd that had nothing to do with Palin,I hope. Still, the he-is-not-as-American-as-us argument is a dangerous one to be making if it allows people to think that Obama does not deserve the job even if he wins.

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Washington, D.C.: Which president will support our local teams? Hail to the Redskins

Terence Samuel: Both come from NFC towns. I don't see why they, or anyone frankly, would want to support the Redskins. Ouch, had to get that in.

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Almost heaven: Will Obama be able to persuade enough Hillary supporters in states like West Virginia to vote for him?

Terence Samuel: I think Obama has to convince former Hillary supporters that Republicans are the ones responsible for their problems. If those problems are severe enough, he has a shot at winning some of them back. But, frankly, West Virginia, is no longer a must-win for Democrats. In Pennsylvania and Ohio, he must get them back, and maybe he has.

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Dallas, Texas: What did you make of the post debate body language? The Obamas stayed and mingled with the crowd. The McCains seemed to leave quickly. They seemed to be avoiding each other. I also thought Brokaw didn't help by asking the candidates to break up their handshake so he could read his monitor. That was ridiculous.

Terence Samuel: It was striking to watch Obama stay and work the crowd, while McCain seemed to flee. It could have been nothing, but I got the sense that the winner wanted to take a victory lap while McCain wanted to get away as fast as possible since the night didn't go quite the way he wanted.

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Washington, DC: I was pretty disgusted with what I interpreted as racism in one of McCain's responses, I've rewatched this a few times to be sure I'm not misinterpreting it... When a young black man, Oliver, asked McCain about the bailout, McCain said about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "I'll bet you that you may have never even heard of them before this crisis." Really? I think most people have, and that was an insulting statement to make.

The worst though was that he went on to say "that way Americans like Allen ... can stay in their home." Allen was the first questioner, but McCain was responding to Oliver. It just gave off the impression that McCain thought Oliver wouldn't be able to own a home, and be in that situation.

Terence Samuel: I don't think McCain was being racist; he is a little clumsy in expressing ideas, particularly ones that are relatively new to him. But you are not the only one to have felt that. I'd disagree and give him a pass.

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CNN viewer: On CNN after the debate they kept the cameras on to see if McCain and Obama would shake hands - at one point it looked like Obama tried, but McCain deflected him to Cindy McCain and then walked away.

Not really sure if I saw this right, and the CNN commentators didn't mention anything, but if true, that's pretty petty. How do you deal with people you truly are in conflict with when you meet them - say at trade or military negotiations if you can't "keep face" on politeness matters?

Like Warren Zevon sang, "Even a dog can shake hands"

Terence Samuel: As noted earlier, he's an emotional guy. It'll be interesting to see how he handles the last debate, if the numbers continue to trend against him.

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Rolla, MO: Why is it so difficult for the talking heads to see and admit the obvious in the first three debates, that the Democratic ticket won each one? Last night we heard "McCain needed a game changer, he didn't clearly win, therefore advantage Obama." No, Obama won. Look at any poll of viewers you want, it was clear. Why can't they just say it?

Terence Samuel: What fun would that be? There is a lot of time to fill and, seriously, there is so much interest in this election that ordinary people are dissecting every little moment; that gives rise to analysis of who did what well and who did what poorly. Also, as long as the election is not over, the handicapping will continue.

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Terence Samuel: Thanks for the interesting discussion. I have to run, but let's do it again soon.

Terry

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washingtonpost.com: More live discussion on the debates and campaigns coming up at 2:15 with Tucker Carlson and Ana Marie Cox

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