Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Monday, Oct. 13 at 11 a.m. ET to answer readers' questions about the latest news from Washington and the campaign trail.

The transcript follows.

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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Chicago: Good morning and thanks for chatting. What is the one election result (House, Senate or individual state result for president) that come Nov. 5 we will all be saying "wow I never saw that one coming"? It obviously can't be something virtually impossible, like McCain carrying Vermont or Obama carrying Alabama, but there must be a few races out there where a huge upset is possible. If so, which one of those possibilities is most likely to be the topic of conversation on Nov. 5?

Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone and greetings from Toledo, where Sen. Obama is preparing for his final debate on Wednesday. Bring on your questions -- and thanks in advance for participating.

Chicago, in terms of upsets, the wild card here is the degree to which Obama draws stronger-than-expected turnout in some weird places. He may not win, say, Georgia, but heavy Democratic volume could could conceivably cost Saxby Chambliss his Senate seat. Similarly, Rep. Virgil Goode -- whose seat includes part of Charlottesville, Va., could get swamped, and Republicans could lose that Kenny Hulshof seat in central Missouri, because part of it includes Columbia.

In terms of states, I think I just saw a poll that had Obama up in North Dakota. I don't see any big surprises for McCain, but hey, we still have three weeks to go.

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Voting early in Iowa: This very morning, there was a satellite voting place set up in my university campus building. There's a steady stream of folks voting, probably 70 percent students. Poll watchers for both campaigns are monitoring the action.

Shailagh Murray: I love these reports and will post anything along these lines that you folks send me over the next hour.

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Reston, Va.: I think it's pretty clear we're going to see a change in leadership on the House GOP side, but what about in the Senate? If McConnell is re-elected, does he keep his spot as minority leader? Who could challenge him? Jim DeMint?

Shailagh Murray: Excellent question. You cannot underestimate the potential for a total GOP meltdown if the party gets wiped out next month. And the biggest group left standing will be committed post-1994 conservatives. I do not see a DeMint rising up in the Senate -- nobody particularly likes the guy -- but I also don't see many options beyond a reshuffling of the current team. If Harry Reid comes out with 57 or 58 votes, the most powerful people in the Senate will be a handful of Republicans like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, along with Joe Lieberman.

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Detroit: I have been impressed with the strategic thinking of the Obama media buys -- advertising on the Big Ten network, during NFL and college football games and during the Sunday shows. I understand that Obama is flush with money, but I have not seen a single McCain ad during these days; am I missing something?

Shailagh Murray: We have received numerous reports from readers noting the exact same thing -- Obama is everywhere, and there's no evidence of McCain. No question, Obama has a crushing cash advantage at this point, and obviously McCain has pulled out of your home state, but I don't understand why McCain's national ads aren't getting noticed, and why folks are saying he seems dark in places like Pennsylvania and Indiana.

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New York: Shailagh, do you agree with CBS News reporter Dean Reynolds that the McCain campaign treats the press better than the Obama campaign does? Reynolds blogged on the CBS site that the Obama press plane is dirty and smelly, and the staff doesn't keep the press informed about Obama's plans or whereabouts. I thought they were so well organized? Thanks!

washingtonpost.com: Reporter's Notebook: Seeing How the Other Half Lives (CBSnews.com, Oct. 7)

Shailagh Murray: I like Dean a lot, but I don't share his frustrations. Definitely we're all sick of the road (and the TV folks absolutely have it worse than the print reporters) but the Obama travel staff, charter folks and advance people could not be more helpful. I just had breakfast with a McCain reporter who agreed that they're a real stand-out group, compared to previous campaigns we both had covered. But it has been a long, long road, and yes, that plane does look pretty shabby.

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Bethesda, Md.: What topic(s) will the debate this Wednesday night cover?

Shailagh Murray: The subject is the economy, so I assume they will stick to that.

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Is it over?: I keep getting the feeling when I see reporters on TV that y'all aren't really allowed to say it out loud, but Obama has, for all intents and purposes, already won the election. Is it just wishful thinking, or is there any way McCain can still pull this out of the dumper for the GOP?

Shailagh Murray: I certainly have learned this year to expect the unexpected, and I would imagine most campaign reporters would concur. Does Obama have some pretty clear advantages right now? Yes. Is his turnout operation far superior? Probably more so than we even realize. But that's all we know for sure at this point.

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Indianapolis: We're getting a ton of Obama ads here; the only McCain ads are RNC commercials. I don't know whether Obama can carry Indiana, but it's nice to know that my vote might count this year, for a change.

Shailagh Murray: From the Hoosier front lines...

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Providence, R.I.: Shailagh, I thought that, with the Republican National Committee coffers plus his own, McCain's finances were on a par with Obama's. Now I hear he's got less money. Did Obama raise a boatload since his nomination? Thanks.

Shailagh Murray: Yes, it appears there is no recession in Chicago. I think we will see an absolutely jaw-dropping total for September.

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Frederick, Md.: He's dark in the Washington D.C. metro area, which targets Virginia too. If he doesn't carry Virginia, he has zero chance to pull an upset. It makes no sense -- it's like he's waving a white flag. Are they waiting for the last debate? Waiting for the market to rebound? Waiting for the last week of the campaign? Waiting for Godot? As a McCain supporter, it is dispiriting.

Shailagh Murray: Don't do anything drastic, McCain supporter, but I would expect that your candidate probably has cut his losses in Maryland and Northern Virginia.

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Fairfax, Va.: How will all the early voting affect Election Night returns? Will these ballots be counted along with the ones cast on Election Day or what?

Shailagh Murray: Yes, they are counted on Election Day, but most election offices report the number of ballots they receive on a regular basis before Election Day -- which field organizers use to narrow their target lists.

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Henly, Texas : I'm sure I'm among a tiny number of people who read most of the Palin investigator's actual report. I was struck not by the criminality (or lack thereof) of her actions, but by what a small person she seems to be. After all, carrying on a grudge solely for the sake of personal retribution for years after a divorce is much more "Jerry Springer" than "Meet the Press." Doesn't the report raise more of a character question than a legal question about Palin and her fitness for the second-highest office in the land?

washingtonpost.com: The Trail: Palin Talks to Alaska Reporters about Troopergate (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 12)

Shailagh Murray: But it's perfect fodder for the HBO series or Coen brothers movie that surely will arise from all this.

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Athens, Ga.: I voted last week, and a local paper says that our region already had more than 250,000 early votes! Yay.

Shailagh Murray: Memo to Saxby Chambliss...

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El Segundo, Calif.: Hi Shailagh. The other day I saw on the Daily Beast blog that Christopher Buckley (son of William F.) endorsed Obama. He did it there because he didn't have the stomach to endure abuse similar to that hurled against conservative partisans like Kathleen Parker when she said Sarah Palin was an embarrassment. Now there is a headline in The Washington Post that says the head of the GOP in Virginia compared Obama to bin Laden. The conservative base seems to have lost control of itself. Comment?

washingtonpost.com: GOP Head Compares Obama to Bin Laden (Post, Oct. 13)

Shailagh Murray: The Republican Party surely seems woefully short on leadership, doesn't it? Everyone seems to be working off their own script. I would note that it's an approach without a promising track record.

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Ad Buys: Do you think McCain, because of his funding issues or lack thereof, is reserving his cash for the final "surge" that will take place in the last five or 10 days before the election to target areas of concern with ad blitzes? That may be too little too late, but it also may be the only options left at this point, given that he is broke. Secondly, do you think Palin has helped or hurt McCain beyond the base? He clearly cannot win with only that support group.

Shailagh Murray: Clearly, if McCain's resources are limited -- and we know they are -- he will have to start narrowing his focus to a few key states where he has a clear shot. One of his problems, it seems to me -- but I would note that I've focused almost exclusively on Obama this year -- is that he's playing on the same map as his Democratic opponent, which he no longer can afford to do. A week or so from now, it seems unrealistic that he can afford to go all out in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, etc. I saw ad spending numbers last week that showed McCain spending more in Iowa than in other states where the polls are much closer. Who knows, this could all make sense. Like I've said many times, nothing would surprise me.

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Gettysburg, Pa.: Have you heard anything from GOP insiders about how bad they expect their losses to be this fall?

Shailagh Murray: In the House, they're looking at a spread of about 15-25. In the Senate, I'd say the range is four to nine.

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Kensington, Md.: Sarah Palin characterized the "abuse of power" finding by the Alaska legislature as a politically motivated witch hunt by "Obama supporters." How can that be when both the legislature at large and the committee that ran the investigation were controlled by Republicans? Is the Alaska GOP for Obama? Has anyone asked her about this incredible excuse?

Shailagh Murray: She was grilled on it this past weekend, and news organizations have called her out on it. Especially ABC -- check that Web site.

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Chantilly, Va.: Why on earth would any politician voluntarily show up for a sports event in Philadelphia? I know Gov. Palin is big on hockey, but she picked a city that is infamous for booing Santa Claus and their own superstars (not to mention throwing a few batteries). Wouldn't Pittsburgh have been a wiser option for wooing Pennsylvanians?

Shailagh Murray: I could not agree more. That one was a total mystery.

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Albany, N.Y.: Is there any chance we'll see the old McCain -- the straight-talking maverick who captured America's heart -- in the final few weeks of the campaign?

washingtonpost.com: Kristol: Fire the Campaign (New York Times, Oct. 13)

Shailagh Murray: I think those chances are probably pretty good, but he's going to have to be consistent and even creative about it in order to make an impact that this point.

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Reston, Va.: With respect to voter turnout, any idea why ACORN's ... issues ... aren't getting much play in the media?

Shailagh Murray: I think that issue is getting some attention. And will get more attention, undoubtedly, depending on what unfolds.

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Falls Church, Va. : I don't think McCain is dark in Virginia, but I do see about four Obama ads for every McCain ad.

Shailagh Murray: An update from Falls Church.

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McLean, Va.: Maybe I'm cynical, but I'm still concerned that voters will get into the booth on Nov. 4 and have an oh-my-god moment and balk at voting for Obama because he's black or because his name is funny or something like that. There's not really any way for polling to get at this possibility, right? Am I driving myself crazy, or do you think this is legitimately something to worry about?

Shailagh Murray: Yes, you are driving yourself crazy. This is called bracing yourself for the inevitable disappointment that Democrats have come to expect from general elections. Obama has faced voters in every state, right? And he's done pretty well -- or well enough to get to this point. No question, a lot of people are going to feel weird about voting for him, because he's so different from the "old white guy" model we've known all these centuries. But the narrative is so different this year that it's hard to see anything clearly.

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Sarasota, Fla.: McCain may be invisible in some places, but on ABC last night I twice saw McCain ads followed by Obama ads back-to-back.

Shailagh Murray: A sighting in Florida.

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Atlanta: Well, about a year and a half ago McCain was completely written off. The press was talking about Romney as the nominee, saying that McCain most definitely would not make it past New Hampshire. Now, I know it looks pretty bleak for McCain -- but seriously, I never would rule him out.

Shailagh Murray: Exactly. Plus, if we were to rule him out, what would we do for the next three weeks?

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In rely to Kensington, Md.: While the Alaska Senate has a majority of Republicans, the "majority party" is actually a bipartisan group of moderate Republicans and Democrats. The head of this group was quoted immediately following Palin's nomination as saying that she wasn't qualified to be governor, let alone vice president. Palin is more closely aligned with the "Republican minority" group.

Shailagh Murray: From our Arctic front.

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Palin in Philadelphia : She was at the Philadelphia Flyers game because the owner is an ultra-right-wing conservative. I think he is the leader/founder/funder of Freedom Watch. I heard she was booed lustily, and that you can hear it over the loud music.

Shailagh Murray: I would not go before a Philly crowd of any kind, for any reason, unless I'd won a title for one of their teams.

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"She was grilled on it over the weekend"?: Palin did a press conference?!

Shailagh Murray: Check on the network sites and the political blogs, but at one point on Saturday or Sunday she did a conference call with reporters, and eventually sort of backed off her assessment that she had been fully cleared.

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Re: Reston, Va.: More coverage of ACORN would be great, to show the difference between registration fraud (somewhat common) and electoral fraud (almost nonexistent). It also would show how ACORN and any other voter registration agency has to submit any possibly fraudulent registrations to the state electoral boards. Finally, as a lesson of simple statistics: If you do something 95 percent perfect, but that something is registering 1,000,000 new voters, 5 percent of people filling out "joke" registrations will result in 50,000 rejected registrations.

Shailagh Murray: More on ACORN.

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New York: Just a comment: I'm at home today (thanks Christopher Columbus!) and just saw two Obama ads during "The Price is Right." I dunno, but that seems like a good ad buy for Obama, reaching housewives, etc. What do you think?

Shailagh Murray: And we wonder why his numbers with women have gotten so strong.

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Princeton, N.J.: How about Paul Krugman winning the Nobel Prize? Is everybody out to get Bush and McCain?

washingtonpost.com: Columnist Paul Krugman Wins Nobel Economics Prize (Post, Oct. 13)

Shailagh Murray: Oh come on, those Swedes are a bunch of socialists.

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Endorsements: Barack Obama picked up at least 16 newspaper endorsements this weekend, including six in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. John McCain, as far as Editor and Publisher knows, gained just two. Do you think this matters, in the greater scheme of things?

Shailagh Murray: It just feeds the perception that he's the frontrunner. I do think the small-paper endorsements can have an impact in their communities; but for papers that have a clear editorial slant, the impact probably isn't as great.

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Fairfax, Va.: We've seen Gordon Smith running ads highlighting his work across the aisle with Democrats, even John Kerry, but as things look more and more out of reach for John McCain, do you expect to see Republicans senators and House members in tight races running ads talking about the importance of divided government and putting a check on a potential Obama administration?

Shailagh Murray: I doubt it. Keep in mind that many of the contested House districts are in the suburbs, where people are not keen on partisanship. Plus, I don't think many folks vote defensively.

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Kansas City, Mo.: Missouri must be a toss-up, as during the evening news last night I think I saw at least two McCain ads and two Obama ads. ... On the ACORN thing, is there any way to require the government to have their citizens in the voter registration database? Don't companies with stock ownership have to make a strong effort to ensure all stock owners can vote? Why can't governments work together on this? It would eliminate the need and the complaining about ACORN...

Shailagh Murray: I'm still depressed about the Mizzou game.

Obviously if we're going to have a lot of people voting in this country, as opposed to our usual bare minimum, then the whole process is going to have to be overhauled.

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Washington: The market is up strongly today. If this trend continues and we see a real upswing in investor confidence, do you think Obama's numbers will tank?

Shailagh Murray: Ummm, no. Can we collectively agree to stop viewing the stock market as the economy? General Motors, General Electric, United Airlines, Apple, all those small businesses in strip malls near your house -- that's the economy.

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Minnesota: I saw my first Obama ad yesterday. It had been all McCain up until then.

Shailagh Murray: Another dispatch...

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Poplar Bluff, Mo.: Southeast Missouri, a very conservative area with plenty of McCain yard signs, is being saturated with Obama ads from local TV network affiliates. Is McCain-Feingold coming back to haunt its sponsor?

Shailagh Murray: I think the Obama campaign actually charges for yard signs.

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Iowa: I don't think the new "nice guy" McCain is just happenstance. I think they planned to go as far as they possibly could in the "attack Obama" mode and then have McCain walk away from it at the last minute, when all the negative ideas already had been planted firmly in the voters' minds.

Shailagh Murray: It's going to be tough for Sen. McCain. People are following this election very closely. Their perceptions of both candidates may not have solidified, but they have been forming for a long period of time, based on many events and experiences. So it's hard to reverse course without carrying all your baggage with you.

At the end of the day, these are rough times for a lot of folks, and I expect most voters view the election as a very serious exercise. In the next three weeks, both candidates better bring their A games.

Thanks for all the great questions, and see you in two weeks. Cheers.

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washingtonpost.com: Upcoming Discussion: Comparing the Campaigns' Ground Games (washingtonpost.com, 1 p.m. ET today)

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