Baseball Postseason

Live from Boston, Post national baseball writer Dave Sheinin was online Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 3 p.m. to take your questions and comments about the Rays-Red Sox and the Phillies-Dodgers, as well as the latest news from around the major leagues.

The transcript follows.

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Dave Sheinin: Hey everyone, and greetings from Fenway Park. Sorry I'm late. I'll stay a little longer on the back end to make up for it. Here we go...

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Red Sox main press box: Just curious: What did you think of Joe Maddon's jacket today at his presser?

Dave Sheinin: This must be an inside job, because I've been going on all afternoon here in Boston about the killer jacket that Maddon wore to today's news conference. I gotta find out where he got that thing.

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Fenway Park:16 ALCS's have gone to 3-1. In twelve of them, the team with 3 wins eventually finished it off. In three of them, the team that was down came back to win. (The sixteenth time is this year.)

The three teams that came back:

Boston Red Sox, 1986 Boston Red Sox, 2004 Boston Red Sox, 2007

So it's not too crazy to still hope... but I have to admit that Boston's 2008 squad, at least at this point, does not look nearly as good as the 86, 04, or 07 teams.

Dave Sheinin: That's the thing... That history is not totally irrelevant, because it proves such things are possible. But this Red Sox team is not the 2007 team, let alone the 2004 version. Go back and see the blog post I did on the pitching rotations in those years (in 2004, for example, they went Lowe-Martinez-Schilling). And the other thing is, this Rays team is not the 2007 Indians.

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Sec 114, Row E: Shiner,

What's news? I love the new WaPo Baseball blog, but more importantly, what's today's sub theme? Is it music or beef? What's in your mp3 player? Have you been to the Fogo de Chao?

Dave Sheinin: Hey, thanks for the blog love, 114-E. Music or beef? How about both. I'm way into this band from Jersey called The Gaslight Anthem, and also trying to get my arms around the new Lucinda Williams disc. Problem is, she's in love now, and she has always been at her best when her heart is broken. As for beef, looking to sample the fare tonight at Grill 23.

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Rockville, Md.: A Rays-Phillies Series would be a ratings nightmare, no?

Dave Sheinin: Oh, man... The folks at Fox, and to a lesser extent at MLB headquarters, are absoluting HATING the notion of a Phillies/Rays World Series. To this point, the Tigers/Cardinals Series in 2006 ranks as the lowest-rated in history, but Rays/Phillies would almost certainly go even lower.

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Burke, Va.: Hi Dave,

Starting to shape up to be Phillies/Rays WS. Not real compelling stuff for purists, but could be an entertaining series.

What's the deal with the Sawx? Something is wrong with Beckett, regardless of what he and others say. Just doesn't look right. And the choice to go with a knuckle baller in a 'must win' last night was a strategic mistake, big time. Wakefield doesn't have a stellar postseason record. Should have gone with the Dice Man.

Dave Sheinin: I'm actually tackling this very question for tomorrow's paper. The short answer: While the Red Sox have built a tremendous young core (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon, Lowrie, et al.), they are still very reliant upon aging players who have let them down. Two of their three losses have been charged to 42-year-old pitchers (Timlin, Wakefield). Varitek looks washed-up. Lowell is out. Ortiz has nagging injuries all over his body, particularly his wrist. You can even throw Curt Schilling in there, because they're paying him $8 million and he hasn't thrown a pitch. They need to make some changes, in line with the Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay trade, which made them six years younger in left field.

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washingtonpost.com: Two questions Dave:

1) With they way the staff has looked so far, if things continue to go south, would the Red Sox have interest in Sabathia this offseason?

2) If the Phillies win it all, will the good, tortured people of Philadelphia be able to accept that they won a championship? Is it possible they might boo?

Dave Sheinin:1) Yes, I think the Red Sox will be interested in Sabathia, but I don't see him going there. The Yankees simply will not be out-bid for Sabathia, and if he decides he can stomach playing in one of the hot-bed east coast markets, it will probably be there.

2) Phillies fans will definitely boo their own during the course of the World Series, but if they win it all, even those "tortured people" will be able to enjoy it.

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Ratings Question: going back to your response on the ratings question. Would the ratings to a Rays-Phillies World Series be low because of the Rays or because of both teams? What do you think of the ratings for a Sox-Phillies series?

Dave Sheinin: The ratings will be low primarily because of the markets involved. The 2005 Series (White Sox/Astros) was even less "sexy" than Cardinals/Tigers, but it did better in the ratings because Chicago and Houston are big markets. A Red Sox/Phillies series would do infinitely better, because the Red Sox are a big draw nationally.

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Washington, DC:"Rockville, Md.: A Rays-Phillies Series would be a ratings nightmare, no?"

Who cares about ratings? Shouldn't the concern be about getting the champ right?

(Yes, I am a Phillies fan, and yes, I am a little ticked about the absolute pining for a LA-Red Sox series that has gone on over the past week, especially from Joe "I Love LA" Buck)

Dave Sheinin: I feel you, D.C.

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Pretty Boring Fare: Geesh, Dave, there really hasn't been a compelling series yet. The division series were not close and, really, neither has the American and National LCS. And within there have not been many closely played games either. The best so far was the Sawx lone win with Dice K. Who would have thunk?

Dave Sheinin: It's kind of been a trend the last few years -- I mean, how many compelling series have there been at all? Saw a stat recently -- of the last 26 postseason series, only three have gone the distance.

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Nats fan with big dreams: So, the Padres are reported to have put Jake Peavy on the trading block. I say the Nats go for it. Throw 'em a bunch of prospects (we'll even throw in Dmitri Young to improve the economy of the Gaslight District restaurants) and he's ours. Then we sign Teixeria and CC Sabathia and we're contenders, contenders I say!

Anyway, any word on what will happen with Peavy or on what the Nats are hoping to do this offseason, beside disappoint us?

Dave Sheinin: These are the kinds of things the Nationals are going to have to consider, because they certainly are not going to be able to convince big-name free agents to sign with them. And the problem with someone like Peavy is convincing him to sign long-term with them, because you can't give up the prospects it's going to take to get him for only one year of him.

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Washington, D.C.: What's with these 8 and 8:30 start times? No kid on the east coast will ever be able to watch late inning playoff and World Series heroics. Doesn't it seem like MLB is losing generations of young fans with these games starting so late and lasting so long?

Dave Sheinin: Believe me, I hate these late starts just as much as you do. The answer won't surprise you: It's all because of money. Specifically, Fox gets its highest ratings during the 8-11 p.m. hour, and thus can charge the highest commericial fees. And of course, MLB is too gutless to stop them. Yes, it's shortsighted -- you're getting the quick fix of extra revenues, but you're risking losing an entire generation of fans who will have no postseason memories from their childhoods because they simply can't stay up late enough to watch the games.

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Small Market : But, from a Major League Baseball perspective, wouldn't a small-market World Series create some (though probably short-term) interest in places outside the large markets, letting small markets know that anything can happen, and give hope. I agree that Fox might not like small market success leading to the World Series, but I think that MLB would like it.

Dave Sheinin: Well, you're right about the benefits of parity, and seeing small-market teams make the World Series. What's amazing is that, if the Rays and Phillies get in, no fewer than 16 teams (more than half the teams in baseball) will have played in the World Series in the past 10 years.

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Randallstown, Md.: For years we have been listening to the Orioles whine about how it is unrealistic to expect them to make the playoffs becuse they play in the AL East and thus must compete with the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Rays have certainly put that to shame! Take that, Orioles, and Go Rays!

Dave Sheinin: This is absolutely true. While it's difficult to win in the AL East, given the payrolls of the Yankees and (to a much lesser extent) the Red Sox, it certainly is not impossible. But what it takes (and here is where the Orioles fail) is excellent management and smart decision-making.

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Boonsboro, MD: Question: Keep my tickets for World Series Game 5 in Philly, or sell them on StubHub for $900 a piece?

Dave Sheinin: I'd sell them, then try to scope out a deal for some cheaper ones. You turn a profit, and still get to go to the game.

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Walla Walla, Wash.: Sure, start the games earlier, and you lose a whole generation of west coast kiddo fans because THEY WOULD STILL BE IN SCHOOL WHEN THE GAME STARTED! Or their parents are still at work. An 8 p.m. start on the East Coast means I miss the first pitch because I'm on my way home from work. Please, please, please get off the world revolves around the East Coast train. We watch sports out here in the West too, and the bulk of us work until at least 5 p.m. You have to stay up late to see the end, and I have to miss the start.

Dave Sheinin: You're right, and I certainly am guilty of being east-coast-centric. But it's ridiculous that some of the best moments in baseball history (the Aaron Boone homer comes to mind, and even the extra innings in Game 2 of Rays/Red Sox) happen at 1:30 a.m. on the east coast. That's ridiculous. Isn't there a middle ground here -- like the same 7:05 p.m. starts that they use in the regular season?

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Re: Peavy: Actually, he's under contract through 2012 for $52 million. According to the North County Times, Peavy makes $11 million in '09, $15 million in '10 and would make $22 million with a club option for '13. So he gets expensive in a couple of years, but he's also only 27.

Dave Sheinin: No, you're right. My fault. I was thinking of someone else. Peavy makes $11M in 2009, $15M in 2010, $16M in 2011 and $17M in 2012, with the club option you described. I'm afraid that's too expensive for the Nationals' tastes. But for argument's sake, would you give the Padres the choice of any three players in the Nats' farm system for Peavy? (I wouldn't.)

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Richmond, Va.: Angels fan here in the 804, are we gonna let K-Rod go? I have always got the feeling that the rest of the team tolerates his antics. The young kid, Adderondo, looks like the real deal. Also will Vlade get knee surgery, it is painful to watch the man walk let alone run. Thoughts on the new Hold Steady album, found it to be disappointing. They also canceled the European tour.

Dave Sheinin: Yeah, kiss K-Rod goodbye. They feel that Arredondo is ready to step into the closer's job (he was better than K-Rod this year, statistically speaking), and they can pay him $400,000, instead of $15M or whatever for K-Rod.

I disagree about the Hold Steady. Thought the latest record was fabulous. Those dudes are monsters. Hope they get their touring issues straightened out before their tour with the Truckers comes my way.

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8 p.m. start times: I'm not sure who all these killjoy parents are, not letting their kids stay up late to watch the post-season. When I was a kid, I used to love October (and the All-Star game) because my dad would break out his old 13-inch black and white TV and hook it up in my bedroom so I could watch the games! Com'on, parents! Falling asleep to the beautiful sounds of fall didn't hurt me one bit and I have a deep and abiding love of the sport to this day.

Maybe that should be Fox's campaign -- a TV in every child's bedroom!

Dave Sheinin: I like the creative thinking.

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Crystal Ball: Dave,

Which team in the majors is the next Tampa Bay? Back in March weren't the "experts" predicting a Tigers/Cubs WS? Man, has a team like the Tigers fallen any faster from grace?

Dave Sheinin: Oooh, great question... I could tell you who it WON'T be (but I wouldn't want to tick off Nats fans, so I'll refrain).

How about Cincinnati? Loaded with young stars -- Volquez and Cueto in the rotation, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, etc. Maybe Homer Bailey bounces back. They look pretty well-stocked.

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The Nats' foil: It's easy to root for the DBacks/Rays because as Nats fans we can HOPE/PRAY that our own future will mirror those two organizations. Do you see any similarities other than general philosophy? These DBacks look impressive.

Dave Sheinin: There are similarities in the general philosophy, because it is well-established now that there is only one way to win consistently in baseball, and that's to develop players (especially pitchers) through your own farm system. So there's no mystery as to what's going on. The question is one of execution.

Actually, I think the Rays' approach has been very similar to the Nats', in that they have supplement their own young core through trades for other youngsters (Garza, Navarro, Jackson, et al.) and through brilliant bottom-feeder signings (Pena, Hinske, et al.) Again, the difference has been in the execution, not the philosophy.

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Anonymous: I was born and raised in L.A. My late father was an Angels fan so I rooted for them to win it all, and they were crushed by the Red Sox. Then the team with the best record in the majors got crushed by the Sox, who are now getting dismantled by the Rays. My last hope is the Dodgers, but it does not look like there's any chance they'll beat the Phils. I have vague recollections of the Phils beating the Dodgers for the pennant many years ago. Any idea when that was?

Dave Sheinin: Honestly, I think the Dodgers have a better chance of pulling off the massive comeback than the Red Sox do. But I still don't think it's going to happen. They'd still have to beat Hamels tonight, then win twice in Philly.

I'm guessing the long-ago Phillies/Dodgers series you're thinking of was 1983, when Steve Carlton, Mike Schmidt and the boys won the pennant.

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Wilmingon, Del.: The (Devil) Rays have been VERY impressive since game 1. Did the Red Sox lose all momentum in game 2?

What was with all the Boston fans leaving early last night? they pride themselves on being 'true' fans who are knowledgeable about the game. Can we finally put that notion to rest and accept that Boston fans are like any other team fans?

Red Sox nation is a third-world country!

Dave Sheinin: If the Red Sox lose this series, I believe their critical tactical mistake will have been letting Josh Beckett go back out to pitch the fifth inning in Game 2. They had just taken the lead, and (with an off-day the next day) could have extended their top relievers -- Okajima, Masterson, Delcarmen, Papelbon -- to collect the 15 outs required to lock it down. They sent Beckett back out there, and the rest is history. (And they wound up having to extend some of those relievers anyway.)

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Worcester, Mass.: The Rays batters have made the Sox pitching look awful.

And the Rays pitching has made the Sox batters look awful.

Short of three stellar pitching performances by Dice-K, Beckett, Lester - how do the Sox turn this around?

And please don't fall into the trap of Big Papi not having Manny -- Yuok is just as good protection -- David's power seemed to have been affected by the wrist and he no longer knows how to hit to the opposite field.

Thanks.

Dave Sheinin: You're spot-on about Ortiz. Honestly, it's kind of sad to hear the big man making excuses (not enough runners on base, not enough protection behind him, etc.) because the problem is all with him, or specifically his left wrist. He's not finishing his swings or driving the ball. He's missing hitable pitches.

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Washington, D.C.: Hey Dave,

Thanks for the chat today. I read somewhere that the Nats officials are pleased with the Rays making it so far this year. They say it shows that the model of building from within is viable in MLB. That model took 10 years to result in their first playoff birth and their fans didn't show up until they made the playoffs (they didn't even sell out until later this year.) DC "fans" will be long gone if the Nats follow this and we'll be rooting for the Portland/Las Vegas/San Juan Nationals long before their plan works out. Thoughts?

Dave Sheinin: The problem is, where are the Nationals right now on the Rays' timeline? My sense is that they're at around 2003 or 2004 -- four or five years from being ready to win big. I've got people coming up to me left and right this postseason -- media, officials of other teams, agents, etc. -- telling me what a mess the Nationals look like from their perspective, and asking me what I think is going to happen there.

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Dave Sheinin: OK, my friends. I'm going to get on up out of here (wow, that was four prepositions in a row). Enjoy the NLCS game tonight, and we'll see you back here next time.

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