Election 2008 Key States: Ohio

Cleveland Plain Dealer political reporter Mark Naymik was online Wednesday, Oct. 29 at noon ET to break down the state of the presidential race in Ohio -- the deciding state in the 2004 election -- and to discuss the competitive House races in the state.

Battleground Cheat Sheet: Ohio; also this week: More discussions on key states

The transcript follows.

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Fair Elections: So glad to see Blackwell out of there. Has there been a marked difference in having a Democrat in charge of the voting process in 2008 as opposed to 2004? What changes have you noted to prevent voter suppression efforts in this cycle?

Mark Naymik: Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell also served as a honorary co-chair of the Bush 2004 campaign in Ohio, which created a lot of concern, most overblown. (Democrats tried to link him to Diebold voting machine problems.) Blackwell issued several directives that were controversial, including one that required voter registration cards be submitted on heavy paper stock. It was rescinded. Okay, that's four years ago.

The new Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, as you note is a Democrat, but she has not been immune to charges of partisan politics. She rejected absentee ballots sent by the McCain campaign that were missing a check-mark on a box. The GOP sued her and won. The move led many editorial pages to accuse her of partisan politics. She also has been locked in several legal battles about what to do with mismatches in the new statewide voter file. The GOP says she is creating the potential for fraud; she says she's protecting the voters who might unfairly be knocked off the voter file.

The concern about bad voter registration cards submitted by ACORN also has generated a lot of hype that has heightened attention to the Secretary of State's office. Brunner has issued more clear directives on Election Day observers and other provisional-ballot-related issues that have lessened some concern. In the end, there is slightly less concern.

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Lakewood, Ohio: Are Ohio Democrats worried about voter suppression effort by the GOP? Will the Republicans resort to their usual suppression efforts? Are they using any new tactics?

Mark Naymik: I get this question a lot, and people worry that the GOP will send party members into the polls to challenge voters in Democratic areas on Election Day. From what I've seen in past elections, such challenges do not really take place. I have not seen GOP volunteers in heavily Democratic areas challenging voters. To be candid, race may play a role in this -- many heavy Democratic areas are in predominately black inner cities. Both parties don't want to inflame potential differences by pitting white challengers against black voters.

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Washington: There is a lot of talk about "working-class voters," but "working class" seems to be defined by education or income rather than occupation or even work status. For example, Hillary Clinton's supporters were described as "working class," but also predominantly were older. That means a low-income, non-college-educated retiree might be called "working-class." Nothing against retirees, but most of them aren't in the workforce, so you can't call them "working." Has there been any attempt to tease out support by actual workforce status? Do we know how people who actually work full-time are voting in Ohio?

Mark Naymik: Fair question. We have not looked at those demographics. The campaigns ultimately are focused on turnout of voters, and we know that older retirees are very regular voters, so I don't imagine the campaigns will worry too much about the distinction between working and non-working within that group. You raise a good point on the "working-class" vote -- Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in Ohio by nine percentage points on the strength of "working-class" and retiree voters, exit polls show, so it's not a surprise that Obama is trying very hard to speak to the middle-class working voters. I think we will see him make that appeal tonight in his 30-minute commercial.

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Alexandria, Va.: How has early voting been going in Cuyahoga County? Long lines, long waits or fairly smoothly?

Mark Naymik: I assume you mean in-person early voting. In-person voting in Cuyahoga has been picking up in the past few days. Since it began, about 1,000 people a day were voting. On Sunday, thanks to busloads of churchgoers, the board processed more than 2,000 early voters. Because the board offices are in downtown Cleveland, it is a safe bet that the bulk of the voters are Democrats. If you live in the suburbs, it is easier to mail in your absentee ballot. (Remember, voters who vote in person also are casting an absentee ballot.) Early voting -- both in person and by mail -- is up statewide from 2004. About one in five voters has voted already in Ohio, the Secretary of State's office says.

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Philadelphia: While I am optimistic that Obama can pull out a win in Ohio, it still would be a major upset on Election Day. How do you see it? What areas of the state will you be looking to for early returns on Election Night to clue you in on the outcome?

Mark Naymik: An Ohio Newspaper Poll released Sunday shows Obama up by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is a statistical dead heat -- but since our first of three polls in mid-September, Obama has gained seven points and McCain has lost two points. The trend favors Obama.

But McCain is campaigning hard in Ohio -- he'll be here Thursday for a two-day bus trip. Running mate Sarah Palin is here today and will continue to campaign in the state. (She should run for governor she has been here so much.)

The big cities -- Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland -- will go for Obama. Clues to victory will be how well Obama does in rural and exurbia -- Butler, Delaware and Medina counties -- and in swing counties like Lake County. (There are plenty of other examples as well.) The problem is that Ohio -- largely thanks to Cuyahoga County's slow count -- may not have results in early. The election might be called before we know. If the election comes down to one state, Ohio will be the one we wait on.

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Dunn Loring, Va.: ACORN has been very active in Ohio and several Obama supporters have acknowledged improperly registering and voting in Ohio, but so far the only votes challenged by Jennifer Brunner has been to Republican absentee ballots. Despite the views of your first two questioners, doesn't this indicate that any voter suppression is likely to be against Republican voters?

Mark Naymik: I urge people on this issue to remember that voter registration fraud (it's real, with plenty of examples in Ohio to support it) does not equal voter fraud. The GOP is concerned that illegal votes will cancel out legal votes, ultimately creating suppression of good votes.

But we have seen few cases -- I can think of one or two reported in Ohio -- where people cast illegal ballots. Why? ACORN registers fake people to collect a paycheck, not to help a candidate. A famous case of registration fraud from 2004 is Jive Turkey, a name turned in by ACORN.

Mr. Turkey never showed up at the polls. I would have liked to see his ID.

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washingtonpost.com: The Democrats picked up one of Ohio's House seats in 2006; how many do you expect them to gain this year? Are these wins the result of demographic shifts, or could they be reversed if the Democratic wave recedes?

Mark Naymik: Ohio Democrats are confident that they can pick up at least four , enough to give them control of the House. I don't see more than three. But the Democrats are benefiting from some weak GOP candidates, and a lingering anti-Republican mood. We have not seen significant population shifts impact this.

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Pittsburgh: Now that Joe-the-Plumber has given the McCain/Palin ticket his formal endorsement, have intrepid reporters been checking his bank account for any recent infusions of cash from GOP fat-cats, which might enable him to actually buy his boss's plumbing firm?

Mark Naymik: No, but we are looking at why Democrats in state government used state databases to look into Joe the Plumber's background -- drivers license and child support, etc. This story is getting a lot of traction in the state. The Columbus Dispatch first broke the story after a tip.

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Austin, Texas: I have a sister who lives in Cincinnati. She won't talk politics with me -- says it's too volatile a subject (she voted enthusiastically for Bush in 2000, less enthusiastically in 2004). Anyway, what it the prediction on the House race in the 2nd Congressional District? Has Jean Schmidt made enough enemies to lose?

Mark Naymik: Conventional wisdom from both parties is that she holds on.

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Columbia, Md.: This is my first voting experience after becoming a proud U.S. citizen. I have two kids and am taking Nov. 4 off, and yes part of it is so I can vote. Do they allow kids in polling booths, or do I have to find a babysitter? I would appreciate your help.

Mark Naymik: Speaking only to Ohio's rule: A child is allowed in with a parent.

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New York: Simple question: Who will win in Ohio?

Mark Naymik: Two days before the 2004 election, I finally thought Kerry might pull it out in Ohio. He did not. The Ohio GOP/McCain operation is not as big as Obama's this year, but I am not predicting this time what will happen in Ohio.

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Portland, Ore.: Is there any lingering effects of the past Republican scandals that Democrats were able to capitalize on in the past election? I'm thinking of the governor's race especially. Any of that carrying over to this election, or is that all old news?

Mark Naymik: Good question. The anti-Republican mood is from the top -- Bush's poor poll numbers. In Ohio, Republicans are benefiting from Democratic scandals -- the biggest being the Democratic attorney general who resigned in spring after a sex scandal. Locally, the FBI is investigating Cuyahoga County's top two Democratic politicians. This has been a huge story here, and Republicans are using it in ads against Democrats.

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Washington: Mark, thanks for doing this chat. You guys have been a key "battleground state" forever. I'm just curious if things feel different "on the ground" this year from say, 2004 or 2000. If so, how?

Mark Naymik: Obama has a much more organized campaign than John Kerry in 2004. There are also far fewer outside groups -- like the now-defunct America Coming Together -- doing door-knocking and other GOTV efforts that seemed to duplicate efforts in Democratic areas. And the Ohio Democratic Party is far stronger.

As for McCain: His operation is less organized than Bush's. Partly that's because McCain isn't the incumbent. He also doesn't have the resources. The Ohio GOP is still the backbone here and is doing its thing. As for ground game, I've written a bit that Obama has the edge.

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Kansas City, Mo.: What's the outlook this time for matching up voting equipment with voters? There were stories in 2004 about voters waiting hours to vote.

Mark Naymik: Election officials claim they have learned lessons from 2004 and will pay better attention to new registrations/primary activity to help them plan. It's important to remember that some of the problems in 2004 were the result of bad planning by Democratic officials, so I don't see this as a conspiracy in anyway, just bad planning.

FYI: More than half -- about 53 counties -- of Ohio will use touch-screen systems. Most of the others on are optical-scan machines, which have the ability to handle surges because people can just fill in the paper ballot and it can be scanned at the polling location later.

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Re: Voter Challenges: It seems you and Kai Wright are looking at two different 2004 elections in Ohio. From Kai's chat (going on now): "In 2004, for instance, the GOP sent 1,400 challengers to Ohio's Cuyahoga County. Not coincidentally, that's where we saw historically long waits to vote." You said there was no indication of voter challenges gumming up the works. Who's right?

Mark Naymik: Cuyahoga County has 1,500 precincts, so the number is not huge.

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