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Shailagh Murray
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Wednesday, October 29, 2008; 11:00 AM
Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 10 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.
Washington Post national political reporter Shailagh Murray was online Wednesday, Oct. 29 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.
The transcript follows.
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Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts
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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning. Have you been hearing any buzz about more retirements from House Republicans? Informed speculation? My understanding is that, unlike the Senate, it's no fun to be in the minority in the House. The Democrats figure to pick up another 20-30 seats, and a key factor has been House Republican retirements. Is that going to get worse?
Shailagh Murray: Good morning everyone. Six days left! Can you believe it?
I see Raleigh already is jumping the gun. I have not heard talk of new retirements but that is certain to be a concern -- if there are indeed Republicans left to retire. It would be hard to believe that the GOP hasn't hit rock bottom this cycle, but let's see how the Democrats handle their supermajorities.
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Pennsylvania: Shailagh, given that (almost) everyone pretty much has called the election for Obama, is there any sense that the still many days left to go works against Obama -- i.e. do you think his campaign wishes that the election was now, and that the longer there is to go, the more McCain could actually pull closer (and maybe even pull this out)?
Shailagh Murray: No question, the Obama campaign would love this election to happen right now. Who wouldn't? But in fact it is happening right now, because people are voting early in so many states, at a pace that suggests we may be heading into an era when elections take place over the course of several weeks, with the first Tuesday in November viewed as a deadline as opposed to a starting point.
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Alexandria, Va.: Brava on your appearance in the drinking game video with Milbank. You are braver than I.
washingtonpost.com: Washington Sketch Video: Buzzword Bingo (washingtonpost.com, Oct. 16)
Shailagh Murray: Thanks! I must say, that video got far more attention than any debate story I ever have written. And that was non-alcoholic beer, for the record.
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Fort Lee, N.J.: No matter what happens on Tuesday, has Howard Dean's 50-state strategy been vindicated, just because the GOP has had to fight in areas they never thought they would have to visit again?
Shailagh Murray: It absolutely has been vindicated. This election is being fought not just state-by-state, but in Maine and Nebraska, within individual congressional districts. How great is that? At some point both parties will figure this out, and then anything goes.
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And that was non-alcoholic beer, for the record: I'd think just hanging out with Milbank and Balz would be intoxicating enough!
Shailagh Murray: Absolutely. My colleagues, my heroes.
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Bethesda, Md.: Do you think Obama's 30-minute infomercial is a good strategy? Seems like overkill at this point, and delaying the World Series seems like a bad idea.
Shailagh Murray: Doesn't it all seem like overkill at this point?
Keep in mind the guiding principle of the Obama campaign: The more time people have to get to know him, the more inclined they are to support him. So consider this part of the effort to close the deal.
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Washington: Assuming Obama wins, any idea what cause Michele Obama would pursue with the First Lady's pulpit? I thought Kathleen Parker's article about Laura Bush's influence was interesting.
washingtonpost.com: Laura Bush's Bully Pulpit (Post, Oct. 29)
Shailagh Murray: She has been focused on military families these past months, and I would expect that to continue. I would be shocked to see her take on a big ambitious policy agenda. It's not her style.
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Fairfax, Va.: Who is in greater danger: Saxby Chambliss or Mitch McConnell? What chance do you give that either loses on Tuesday?
Shailagh Murray: I will go out on a limb and say Saxby Chambliss. He hasn't been around as long, and Obama has a lot of strong support in Georgia -- including hundreds of thousands of African American voters who weren't even registered before this year. Either would be a big upset and would surprise me, but the Obama factor makes Georgia the bigger wildcard.
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Voter Registration: The Canadians have a very simple and fool proof voter registration system: You check off that you would like to be registered to vote when you file your taxes. Why can't we just import the system?
Shailagh Murray: I'm not sure about Canada, but elections are run by local governments here, so it's very tough to take any sort of national approach to voting in the U.S. Check out some of Web sites that keep track of early voting -- it's astonishing how much the rules vary.
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McCain-Palin Friction: Is this story growing in intensity with the whack-job and ignoramus comments being floated out of the McCain campaign? It seems the campaign is falling apart just at the time they need it to close ranks? Or is this an internal indicator of the McCain campaign staff deciding they're going to lose, so it's every man/woman for themselves?
Shailagh Murray: Losing campaigns fall apart -- that's just political gravity. And of course Sarah Palin is going to take a lot of the heat; for better or worse, she has defined the past six weeks of the election. Chances are we haven't seen anything yet, compared to the stories that are likely to flow after next Tuesday.
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Girard, Ohio: Obama's not delaying the World Series -- the first pitch will be thrown on time, but the pre-game show will be truncated, according to FOX account executive Joe Coppola. Just FYI.
Shailagh Murray: Thanks for the clarification.
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Alexandria, Va.: Why were Democrats unable to get these new African American voters to the polls in previous election cycles?
Shailagh Murray: Because they didn't compete for a lot of states that have large black populations -- like much of the South.
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Minnesota: What do you think about Palin in 2012? It seems to me that her base of support is too narrow to be at the top of a ticket.
Shailagh Murray: Remember when people were wondering about Obama after his 2004 speech? Hard to believe that was just four years ago.
I'm not sure Palin has the talent to climb that high that quickly. Strictly as the chief executive of his campaign, Obama has no rival in politics. But I'm fully prepared to be surprised.
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Takoma Park, Md.: Has Biden had plastic surgery? His face looks odd. Reminds me of Greta Van Susteren on Fox News.
Shailagh Murray: I don't know!
Keep in mind that Biden has undergone two rounds of mega-brain surgery, which means two de facto face lifts. It was 20 years ago, but still -- he was in his 40s. So maybe that's what people are seeing. He doesn't look different to me, compared to a few years ago.
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Bloomington, Ind.: Good morning Shailagh. Where are you? Still reporting about that old presidential campaign? My lovely companion can't wait for the election to be over because it's all I talk about. As a pro, how do you get away from all the political chatter?
Shailagh Murray: The country is going to sink into a massive national depression after this is over. People will have no idea what to do with all the energy they've spent stressing out about their candidate, watching all that cable TV and refreshing Web sites.
I recommend a fantasy baseball team. It's basically the same exercise described above, but you can win money.
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Fort Myers, Fla.: Pew has Obama up by 16 points, but Rasmussen has him up by only 3. What gives? They're both decent pollsters, right?
Shailagh Murray: Polls are so scary these days, because of the cell-phone factor and the uncertainty about who will vote. Focus on the averages compiled on Web sites like fivethirtyeight.com and pollster.com and on the individual state polls, which are sampling more narrow groups.
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Chicago: Hey Shailagh, what drinking game are you and Milbank going to play on election night?
Shailagh Murray: I sure wish Dana were going to be in Chicago on Tuesday, but I think he's planning to spend the evening in Arizona.
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Washington: Why is Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) running unopposed for re-election? I find it hard to believe that the GOP could not find someone to run against him. If he really is that popular, does he have national aspirations?
Shailagh Murray: Republicans had terrible problems recruiting this year, and we're about to find out why. Actually, in the interest of being fair and balanced, I wouldn't call this a standout year for Democratic Senate and House candidates, either. The 2006 crop was far more impressive.
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Princeton, N.J.: I am 70 years old. When I was young there were the Taft wing and the Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party. The Rockefeller wing is dying. The Taft wing has been taken over by anti-intellectual religious zealots. Is their any hope that the Republican Party can get back to its roots?
Shailagh Murray: It certainly doesn't seem to be headed in that direction now. But how the Republican Party picks itself up and moves forward surely will be a fascinating parallel narrative for the next few election cycles.
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Avon Park, Fla.: As an Obama supporter I'm a little concerned that his infomercial tonight could cause overexposure, which could lead to voter fatigue about him. Is there a significant chance that people could get tired of Obama and thus move to McCain as a result?
Shailagh Murray: I can tell you're an Obama supporter because you're exhibiting the telltale signs: anxiety, impatience, paranoia.
Sure, this probably is overkill. It's also a novelty, so it won't come off as just another ad -- but it certainly is a splashy way to end.
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Purcellville, Va.: Do you see Mark Warner's impressive lead in Virginia having a coattail effect not only for Obama but for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House? For example, many people may not be familiar with the 10th District's Judy Feder, but while they're voting a Democratic ticket, will she likely get a boost?
Shailagh Murray: Maybe. Dozens of marginal House seats fall into this category, especially suburban districts and those that include college towns. If Obama has massive turnout and McCain does just okay getting his folks to the polls, there could be a tsunami.
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Alexandria, Va.: Good morning, Shailagh. What congressional races in particular will you be watching on Election Night to determine overall trends, including a possible Democratic wave? Thanks.
Shailagh Murray: Great question. Here's a list of a few congressional districts where the polls close early and that we consider telling: Virginia's 2nd, Indiana'a 3rd, Kentucky's 2nd and Florida's 21st and 25st.
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Scarsdale, N.Y.: Thanks, Charlie Crist. Thanks a lot, traitor. You just handed Florida to Obama by extending the hours for early voting.
Shailagh Murray: Or maybe he was just trying to keep the Supreme Court out of this election. My guess is Florida doesn't want another voting controversy on its doorstep.
Folks, I can't believe I am saying this, but goodbye until after the election! And when you vote on Tuesday, wear comfortable shoes and bring a book. Cheers.
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washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Ohio and the General Election (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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washingtonpost.com: Discussion: Voter Suppression and Ballot Problems (washingtonpost.com, Live NOW)
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