Real Wheels

Washington Post cars columnist Warren Brown was online Friday, May 22, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the auto industry, GM's future and to give purchase advice to readers. Brown has covered the cars industry for The Washington Post since 1982.

The transcript follows.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: Your article on May 10 put a big smile on my face. A few years ago coming back from visiting a friend near Atlanta I was on 75 North and my partner was sleeping in the back seat when I said out loud "Oh s---." She wakes up and says, "What?" I say, "Look at the sign." It read "Welcome to Kentucky." It seems I missed the turn to 40 East to get to 81 North. Instead of going back I decided to take the back roads east to hit 81 (great fun to drive on, all curves and hills). Got home at 3 a.m., our usual trip of 11-12 hours took 18 hours. I tell the story all the time. Have a picture of her standing by the sign.

Warren Brown: Ha!

Good morning, Gaithersburg:

I was confused by all of the construction and detours coming out of Detroit. Normally, I just take I-75 South toward Toledo, look for the Ohio Turnpike sign, and drive that turnpike into Pennsylvania,and then follow the road, I-270 West, I think, into Maryland. But I completely missed the Ohio Turnpike this trip and stayed on I-75 too long. Glad I had a fun car, the new Chevrolet Camaro.

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Camp Hill, Pa.: Greetings Mr. Brown,

A few chats ago you touched very briefly on the viability of Saab; would you please elaborate on the wisdom of buying one now? I've always wanted one, and lately I'm hearing of deals on certified pre-owned Saabs that are increasingly hard to resist.

When I buy a car, I want to hang on to it for a good long time (hence my '93 Corolla!). Would a used Saab be a good idea for me? And if so, what years/models should I look for?

Many thanks for your thoughts.

Warren Brown: Hello, Camp Hill:

The bottom line is that we're now in the best buyer's market since 1982, when I began covering the car business for The Washington Post. Why the best? It's as Chrysler dealer L.T. "Tom" Younger, a longtime dealer who is losing his Chrysler franchise in Columbus, Miss., put it in a recent advertisement: "Our hard luck is your good luck." He's putting huge discounts on his existing Chrysler inventory.

A similar situation applies to Saab, which is in bankruptcy reorganization.

Saab dealers are under pressure to get rid of existing inventory. That means discounts on very good cars -- cars with excellent fit and finish, reasonable power, darned good engineering and top safety.

Look for deals on the Saab 9-3 new and used.

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Warren Brown: NOTE TO AUDIENCE:

Well folks, as we at Real Wheels have been telling you for many weeks, as I have predicted several times in my Car Culture column, and as I and my radio co-host Brian Armstead have been telling you via "On Wheels" on WMET World Radio (1160 AM) on the dial (Sundays at noon): GM is likely to file for bankrupcy reorganization next week, in much the manner that Chryssler recently took that contract abrogation route.

It's tough. It's brutal, but even GM's top executives now know that it's inescapably necessary. Here's why:

. GM's enormous debt, not all of which can be reduced through voluntary negotiation.

. Globally collapsed new-vehicle sales, which is causing disaster everywhere, even at mighty Toyota, whose sales are down 40 percent and who last fiscal year lost more money than GM.

. Dealer-day-in-court laws, which normally protect dealers from the possibly ruinous behavior of automobile manufacturers. Those laws lose their teeth in bankruptcy proceedings.

. The UAW? Not really, because the UAW already (including concessions last week) has made monumental concessions to help reduce GM's costs.

Welcome the New GM (Government Motors--just joking), which will include Chevrolet, Buick, GMC (because big trucks will roll again in recovery), and Cadillac.

Goodbye Old GM, which includes Saab, Saturn, Hummer, much of Opel and Vauxhall, and Pontiac.

The bad news:

An estimated 1,124 GM dealers will lose their GM franchises. (Not necessarily close their doors, because a franchise represents a manufacturer's brand. Many dealers have multiple franchises.)

The good news:

The New GM has a bunch of darned good products, fuel-efficient and fun, of which the new Camaro is a very good example.

What does this mean for YOU:

. Discounts on great cars and trucks.

. Continued access to service, even at GM dealers losing their franchises. Why? Because they are losing their future ability to sell new GM products. They are NOT losing their ability to sell or service used models.

Stay tuned. Real Wheels will keep you ahead of the curve on these issues.

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Clifton, Va.: Don't forget Ford, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, VW, Ausi, Porsche, Mercedes, Land Rover and BMW all have too many dealers to support the current level of vehicle sales. Only exception is Mini but the dealer in VA is awful and dishonest.

Many non GM and Chrysler dealers will go out of business in this area.

Problem with dealerships disappearing is they bad ones are not the most likely candidates sometimes the best dealer for that marque in the area goes.

Prblem with the D.C. area is all the BMW dealers are below average and awful.

Warren Brown: Clifton, my brother:

I don't buy that "too many dealers" argument. Arguably, it's because dealers sponsor my Sunday radio show. (But if you want a sponsorship slot, we'll take your money, too.) Maybe, it's because dealers are among the biggest advertisers in traditional media, including The Washington Post, period. I'll let you take those expected shots.

But here's the real deal:

. Dealers aren't much of a cost item for their manufacturers. Why? Because dealers OWN their stores, most often bought with their money obtained via bank loans secured with their assets.

. Dealers OWN the vehicles sold in their franchises -- inventory bought with dealer-secured loans, again secured with dealer assets.

. Dealers pay for their staff. They pay for their parts.

. In most communities -- like Columbus, Miss. -- dealers, like Columbus Motor Co., are among the biggest taxpayers and biggest contributors to local charities (just look at the huge amount of money Darcars raises and contributes to Washington metropolitan charities).

Too many dealers? Let the market decide that, instead of a bankruptcy court. Dealers aren't stupid. If there is no market, if they can't cut it, they sell out or otherwise close up shop.

Proof: There were 36,000 new-car dealerships in the United States in 1960. By August 6, 2007 -- the official starting date of the current economic meltdown, according to financier George Soros -- there were an estimated 22,000 new-car dealers. That decline was nearly 100-percent attributable to market forces.

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Anonymous: Please help. I am a female, recently divorced with young kids, I hate driving and do no like cars and do not know anything about cars and have no money for a car that I might possibly like (a BMW, perhaps!). But I need a car to get my children to their important places. What would be the best ( a couple of options would be good) car for a person in my situation? Please help.

Warren Brown: Ah, Anonymous:

You seem to have BMW tastes. But if I read you correctly, you have a Hyundai budget, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Hyundai offers the best automotive value, period. Mid-size family sedan? The Sonata is among the least expensive filled with the most standard safety equipment. Luxury? Try the Hyundai Genesis sedan or coupe. I would suggest comparing with BMW. But that would be silly, because BMW is BMW is BMW. There are no real substitutes. But the Genesis makes a good impression.

Otherwise, there are the usual suspects, assuming that you aren't filthy rich and are not collecting as much alimony as you like or need. Here's my family-oriented list:

Chevrolet

. Malibu -- mid-size sedan

. Camaro -- coupe, but probably not convenient enough for three children.

. Traverse -- one of the best family haulers, a crossover-utility, ever made.

Ford:

. Fusion, preferably the Fusion Hybrid -- ace midsize sedan.

. Taurus, now full-size. Great family hauler, also fun to drive.

. Flex -- very good crossover utility.

. Edge -- great family hauler.

Honda:

. Insight hybrid -- super efficient, now with four doors, but probably too tight for growing kids

. Civic -- good city runner with reasonable family hauling ability.

. Accord -- great all-around mid-size sedan.

. CR-V -- great compact cross-over utility.

Use the same categories for Toyota, Nissan, Volkswagen (look at the VW CC). You'll find something, maybe even a husband who deserves a good woman like you.

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Herndon, Va.: Warren, Within a year I expect to replace a 2002 Mitsu Eclipse convertible with another ragtop. What's your take on the best drop top out there now...with at least enough of a testosterone factor that I'll be able to show my face once exiting the vehicle? Let me elaborate: VW Beetle cabriolet -- too girlie, Mustang GT Convertible -- maybe too "teen-age muscle car." I've been driving a convertible car for 20 straight years and need something that falls in the middle for less than $45K. Thanks!

Warren Brown: Ah, Herndon, trust me, that Mustang GT convertible is not the least bit teeny. Any parents putting teenagers in that one should have their parental license revoked. In the hands of many low-experience drivers, that is a crash waiting to happen.

Other possibilities:

. Porsche Boxster

. BMW 3-Series

. Mercedes-Benz C-Class

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GM Dealer Service: Do you expect that the GM dealers losing their franchises will continue to be able to offer warranty services?

Or will they become large independent garages?

And would you predict that they will be able to lower their hourly rates to be more in line with "classic" independents?

Warren Brown: The federal government, under the Obama Rules, will guarantee warranty coverages for GM and Chrysler. But that guarantee has a time limit, the exact details of which escape me now. GM and Chrysler dealers terminated under bankruptcy proceedings expect to be able to offer warranty service. But I need to clean upthis answer with more details. Will check.

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Washington, D.C.: Hi Warren,

I'm curious -- what is the difference between a VW and Audi? Are they analogous to Ford v. Mercury and Chevy v. GM? Assume I can afford either -- a GTI or a A3, how would the two compare? Thanks!

Warren Brown: Audi is the luxury division of VW. VW, increasingly, is falling under the controlling interest of Porsche.

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NY, NY - Re: Camp Hill: Hi Warren,

How will Chrysler's bankruptcy affect existing owner warranties. Am I correct that that they will become null and void? I'm speaking particularly of issues that would normally prompt a recall campaign or some other kind of defect. Thanks for the chats. I look forward every week!

Warren Brown: No.

GM and Chrysler warranties are now backed by Bailout Central, otherwise known as the U.S. government.

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DC: Any luck getting to drive the new Camaro SS? And how long do you think until demands for it drops off enough so that the it's selling price drops below MSRP?

Warren Brown: I'll drive the Camaro SS in late june. Even with a GM bankruptcy, you will have to wait for prices to drop on that one. It's hot.

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Charlotte, NC: With recent agreement on MPG standards, is there any life to the cash for clunkers idea?

Warren Brown: Yes.

Except, in the U.S., cash-for-clunkers ahs become cash-for-guzzlers. Legislation to that effect seems to be moving swiftly through Congress. More later.

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Warren Brown: Thanks for joining us today. We will try to answer all of your questions and put the answers on line later this week. Emphasis on the word "try." Thanks for producing today's show, Amy.

Thanks, Ria. Eat lunch.

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