Post Politics: The Fix on Ensign, Palin, More

Discuss the latest news about Congress, the Obama administration, upcoming elections and more with Washington Post staff writer and The Fix blogger Chris Cillizza.

Cillizza was online Friday, July 10 at 11 a.m. ET.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning everyone. It's chat time. The Fix chat is coming to you live from Buzz Bakery our unofficial chat sponsor and is being fueled by a triple shot Zebra. (The drink, not the animal.) The soundtrack fro today's chat is Wilco's newsest album, which I have yet to decide whether I love, like or hate. One thing I will say -- the duet with Feist ("You and I") kicks ass.

Let's do this thing.

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The odds?: Oh Great Fixinator, given the latest revelations about Senator Ensign and his parents' "gifts," what odds do you give that he'll resign? I ask for entertainment purposes only, given that gambling is, of course, an evil vice.

Chris Cillizza: Fixinator! Me likey.

Lots and lots of questions on Ensign. And, to be honest, I am stunned that this story hasn't got more attention since a Senator's parents paid off his mistress and their family to the tune of $96,000.

Am I missing something here? This is a big deal, right?

Does Ensign survive? Hard to say.

This is bad -- far worse than his admission of the affair with Cynthia Hampton. Why Ensign wouldn't just get out all the bad news at once rather than let it seep out slowly is beyond me and most GOP strategists I talk to.

He pledged yesterday to hang on but these sort of scandals have a life of their own that is often out of the control of the politician at the center of them.

Watch to see if any of Ensign's Senate colleagues break ranks and call on him to resign. Nobody has done it yet but if the story remains front and center in the news, there will be increasing pressure on them to do just that.

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Etiquette of the affair: Sen. Ensign's family paid $96K to the family of his mistress as a gesture of concern. Gov. Sanford discussed his Argentine dailiance with his father-in-law (maybe the opposite of asking for the daughter's hand in marriage?). Is there a guidebook somewhere for politicians who are conducting extramarital affairs, and want to involve their extended families?

Chris Cillizza: My advice: Don't cheat on your wife. Makes things a lot easier on your political career.

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Arlington, Va.: Since the $96,000 Ensign's parents gave to his mistress and her husband were broken up into eight $12,000 checks for the sole purpose of not having to report these payments on income tax forms, I think a case for money laundering can be made.

Chris Cillizza: The fact that the checks were made in increments of $12,000 -- to keep them under the gift disclosure requirements -- makes this look like the Ensigns spent considerable time figuring out how to do this out of the public eye.

Not good.

In the coming days there will be further reporting into whether any laws were broken. Even if they weren't, this plain looks bad for Ensign.

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Long Island, NY: Chris

Thanks for the chat - two questions:

1) What exactly is in a "Zebra"?

2) What's the Fix's view for Palin in the future - my bet is she cashes to be the Oprah of the Right (and gets rich doing it) but at some point she tries and fails at a POTUS run (a la Rudy).

Chris Cillizza: Strong Island. Home to the extended Fix clan.

1. Zebra -- dark and whit chocolate syrup and espresso. And good.

2. I have given up trying to figure out what the future holds for Gov. Palin. And I can track the exact minute when I gave up -- I was at a Mexican restaurant in Dallas on July 3 -- enjoying some much needed down time with Mrs. Fix and Charlie -- when I started to geta rush of emails that she was planning not just to retire in 2010 but to resign her office.

My guess is that Palin's resignation was aimed more at trying to return some sense of normalcy to her family life and make some money in the private sector than at positioning herself for president in 2012.

But, as I said above, who knows?

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You said: My advice: Don't cheat on your wife. Makes things a lot easier on your political career. : If you excluded the philanderers from public office, how many politicians would that leave in DC?

Whould the House or Senate have enough members for a quorum?

Chris Cillizza: Ooooooooh!

I am leaving that one alone. Who am I Dana Milbank?

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Philadelphia: Why didn't Ensign simply seep out this latest news during one of Sanford's many ramblings? It would have been totally buried...between that and Michael Jackson...

Chris Cillizza: My guess is that Ensign never thought this would get out...after all, it as a private donation made by his parents with their own money.

Of course, if he had paid ANY attention to past political scandals he would have known that everything always comes out. (Ask Blair Hull about his sealed divorce records.)

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Elon, N.C.: Related to Mark Sanford, John Ensign, John Edwards, etc... So sick of T.V. pundits taking the question "Why do you think he did it?" seriously Your dentist, your garbageman, your TV weatherman, they all could be having an extramarital affair and it'd have nothing to do with being a politician.

Chris Cillizza: Agree. Men cheating is not unique to politics. It's just that politicians are public figures and so when they stray or, for example, disappear in Argentina for five days, it gets a lot more attention.

Sidenote: Listening to Wilco album as "Tear Stained Eye" by Son Volt (aka Jay Farrar) comes on the radio in coffee shop. Can this count as an Uncle Tupelo reunion?

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Rolla, Mo.: I smell a reality show a la "Rock of Love' where philandering politicians (Ensign, Sanford, Vitter, Edwards...) vie for the love of one woman. The question I have is who would be the lucky woman?

Chris Cillizza: Um, that is a genius idea. Flavor Flav would need to be invovled somehow too. Also, his oversized clock necklace.

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Salinas, Calif.: Chris, does John Ensign have to be in his first trimester for Tom Coburn's claim of confidential privilege to stick?

Chris Cillizza: SO GOOD.

For those who are out of the loop, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) said yesterday that he would not speak about his conversations with Ensign because those discussions were cloaked by patient-doctor confidentiality.

Coburn is an OBGYN.

I am not kidding.

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Who am I Dana Milbank?: Where is Dana? Taking a sick day?

Chris Cillizza: For some reason my Milbank tracking device is on the fritz this morning.

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Evanston, Ill.: Will the rest of the Senate start giving Roland Burris some respect now that he isn't going to seek a second term? Given all the skeletons in the other Senator's closets shouldn't they have been more welcoming in the first place?

washingtonpost.com: Burris To Retire

Chris Cillizza: I doubt it.

Burris' problem is that he blew his chance when he wasn't fully forthcoming about his relationship with Blagojevich in the immediate aftermath of his appointment to the Senate by Mr. Patti Mell.

As a result, people like Harry Reid and Dick Durbin wound up putting themselves out on a limb for Burris only to see him saw it off behind them.

Politicians don't like when that sort of thing happens.

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Boston: Just out of curiosity, what are the guidelines for media in prefacing a person's title/name with the word "disgraced"? I hear about "disgraced former Gov. Blago" whenever he comes up. But I only heard about "disgraced Senator Vitter/Ensign/Gov. Sanford" for a couple days and in no way was it universal. Now they are back to just Senator and Governor. Spitzer seems to have escaped the "disgraced" title as well. How do you decide?

Chris Cillizza: Hmmm.

Don't think there is a standard. Sort of a judgment call.

Except in the case of Blagojevich. It's a mandatory descriptor for him.

:)

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Arlington, Va.: Mr Cillizza

A real journalist would be drinking his Kellog's cornflakes w/Bud out of the bowl while downing bad coffee. You sir are a disgrace to your profession.

Chris Cillizza: I have smoked 11 packs of cigarrettes already this morning. Does that count?

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everything always comes out. : Come on Chris! Obviously you know nutin about the ones that never came out.

Chris Cillizza: True enough. But once the story -- even a small corner of it -- sees the light of day, the whole picture almost always comes out eventually.

This also reminds me of a line from the GREATEST political novel ever written: All of the Kings Men.

"There's always something...."

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Wokingham UK: Is there any chance of a time's coming when an American politician could get away with Sarkozy type behaviour - 'I have met my soulmate and I'm leaving my wife; I'm taking soulmate to see the Pope; I'm still the best leader you've got'?

Chris Cillizza: I don't know although I do think the collective impact of the series of sex scandals over the last few years -- Spitzer, Edwards, Vitter, Ensign, Sanford -- is to dull our sense of surprise.

I think the coverage of the latest Ensign revelations is a perfect example. HIS PARENTS PAID OFF HIS FORMER MISTRESS TO THE TUNE OF $96,000. That is a HUGE story.

But, outside of Nevada, it didn't draw the scads of press coverage that I thought it might.

Not sure we will ever get to the Sarkozy point though....

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Can this count as an Uncle Tupelo reunion?: Not until they're both separately doing a solo duet of say "Chickamauga"

Chris Cillizza: Uncle Tupelo....seminal.

"Gun" makes me want to go out and drive real fast.

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Doctor-patient confidentiality: Didn't Colburn also claim to be acting as a "church deacon" to Ensign? I'm assuming as part of that crazy church that all of Congress apparently belongs to?

Chris Cillizza: He did note that he was serving in a religious role as well..to quote Politico' Jonathan Martin: "Ya can't make it up."

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Stewartstown, Pa.: "My advice: Don't cheat on your wife. Makes things a lot easier on your political career."

That's like saying teenagers should practice abstinence in order to avoid unwanted pregnancies. One has to accept the world as it is. If the media and public didn't make a fuss about extramarital affairs they wouldn't pose a problem.

Chris Cillizza: Um, ok.

Let me put a plug in for monogamy and marriage. Mrs. Fix rocks my world and is the best partner an d friend I could have. I think to assume infidelity as a given in marriage is sort of depressing, no?

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Houston: Actually, I bet that a reality show starring philandering members of congress would be the ONE reality show idea that would fail - these guys are SOOOO boring in real life.

Chris Cillizza: Except for Sanford. He is not boring.

He flew to Argentina to b with his "soul mate"!

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Sleeping with the Enemy: Does John Ensign and all of his tawdriness help unpopular Sen. Reid in next year's election? You know: "Ugh, but at least he's not Ensign."

Chris Cillizza: Awesome "name".

I think the Ensign scandal does help Reid because it further distracts Republicans from finding a candidate to run against the Democratic Leader.

Republicans have already struggled to get someone strong in against Reid -- and Rep. Dean heller isn't going to do it -- and with their lead recruiter (Ensign) now fighting for his political life, that task is much harder.

That said, Reid's numbers are weak and any credible Republican will make a real race of it.

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Bennington, Vt.: Is Cillizza an Italian surname? Just curious about background of your grandparents? Please tell me your mother's parents were middle-class Kansan WASPs and your father's parents were tribal Western Kenyan...

Chris Cillizza: It is!

My dad is Italian and my mom is Irish.

And, to pre-empt any further questions, I do have an official U.S. birth certificate.

:)

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Chicago: I disagree with the premise of Wokingham's question. The whole point in this country is that our politicians rarely have the cojones to say what Sarkozy said. Instead they pathetically mope around and try to deceive everyone about what they're doing.

Giuliani had a high-profile divorce and affair, and it didn't really hurt him much in NYC all things being equal, because he was upfront about it. Guys like Craig and Vitter and Ensign and Sanford, on the other hand, hold themselves out as upstanding family men and defenders of the sacred vow while they're cheating behind their wives' backs. Screw 'em.

Chris Cillizza: Another perspective....

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Chicago: Hey Chris, your performance on Mouthpiece Theater on Tuesday was your best yet.

Chris Cillizza: Thanks! I felt a little rigid but glad it turned out well.

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Not sure we will ever get to the Sarkozy point though: Hi Chris,

Forget Sarkozy, do you think we will ever get to the Berlusconi point - hookers and naked foreign ambassadors laying around Camp David?

Chris Cillizza: Dana, is this you?

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Mercer Island, Wash.: How do you have time to do this with a newborn at home (Congrats by the way).

How is Little Charlie doing? Is Charlie somebody's namesake?

Chris Cillizza: 1. Charlie Rocks. He is a redhead!

2. http://twitpic.com/9vyzd

3. I have now switched to listening to "Elvis Perkins in Dearland". If you don't have Evis Perkins' albums, BUY THEM.

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New York, N.Y.: Thanks for the Fix! There's been a lot of talk about how crucial the '09/'10 gubernatorial races are due to the coming 2010 Census and its impact on congressional re-districting. To your knowledge, in past years like this (2000, 1990, etc.) what influence have parties truly been able to exert on this process at the national level simply by controlling state governments? Is this just much ado about nothing?

Chris Cillizza: Thanks for the question...it allows me to plug th Friday governors Line, which will be up on the Fix shortly.

Who controls the governorship and the state legislature is critical to how redistricting plays out. While there are some states -- Iowa being a prominent example -- that use a non partisan or bipartisan commission to draw the congressional lines for the next decade, most states still give that responsibility to the state legislature.

In states where one party controls the state House, state Senate and governorship, you can expect their side to benefit greatly from the decennial line drawing.

It's why governors races -- and there are 39 of them between now and November 2010 -- are so important.

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"There's always something": Are you sure you're not confusing Robert Penn Warren with Roseanne Rosannadanna?

Chris Cillizza: Could be....

Can I make a plug for "All the Kin gs Men"?

Seriously folks, if you read only one piece of political fiction ever, read this book.

Need one piece on political non fiction? "What It takes" by Richard Ben Cramer.

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My advice: Don't cheat on your wife: I imagine Mrs. Fix could kick some serious journalist butt, too!

Chris Cillizza: Mrs. Fix -- not a stand by your man type. Which is why I love her.

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U.S. birth certificate: Has the Post posted an authenticated copy on its Web site? If not, why not? Until Alan Keyes accepts it as genuine, I will remain suspicious.

Chris Cillizza: Fair point.

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"I have smoked 11 packs of cigarrettes already this morning. Does that count? ": Only if you extinguished them all in a single ashtray that you never empty, creating a giant mountain of butts that serves as a shrine to your addictions, both to the nicotine, and your job.

Duh.

Chris Cillizza: I sit surrounded by old, yellowed newspapers, a pile of cigarette butts and my fedora, which has a press" ticket in the side of it.

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Dunn Loring, Va.: Hoping you can take a non-Ensign question: has The Post disclosed who was the lucky Post reporter who got to attend Obama's off-the-record 4th of July party?

Chris Cillizza: I will disclose the following: it was not me.

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"Milbank tracking device": Is that why the Mouthpiece shots are only from the waist up? (So we won't notice the bulge of his ankle bracelet?)

Chris Cillizza: That among other reasons....

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Affairs: Hey, if it wasn't for affairs my pitbull mix wouldn't be with me today!

Chris Cillizza: The dog world is pro-affair!

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Priced to Move!: I love that it was $96K, not $100. Apparently even in hush money you move more merchandise if you go with the leading nines.

Chris Cillizza: Speaking of which, the official Fix home is on the market if anyone is in the mood....

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non sex scandal question: So maybe we can get back to actual politics - why haven't we heard more about Sen Kennedy's health care plan which has a public option I think and is also much cheaper than other plans. Do you think it could get moderates' support?

Chris Cillizza: The reason you haven't hard more about Kennedy's plan is that it isn't going anywhere.

Max Baucus, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, is going to make sure the bill that ultimately emerges is to his liking, not to Kennedys.

And, given the problems that Baucus is having in settling on a final version at the moment, there is no chance a more liberal plan will win out.

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Eugene, Ore.: What your favorite episode of "The Simpsons" in terms of politics? Mine is the one where Sideshow Bob runs for Mayor: "Oh my God... the dead have risen and they're voting Republican."

Chris Cillizza: How about when Homer runs for Sanitation Commissioner?

http://www.snpp.com/episodes/5F09

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Kokomo, Ind.: Outside of "Dreams from My Father," what is the one Obama bio book you'd recommend so far?

Chris Cillizza: Richard Wolffe (formerly of Newsweek) had loads of access to Obama.

Let me put in a quick plug for a forthcoming campaign book by the Post's Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson. Dan rocks and I will be buying it the day it comes out.

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Crystal, Nev.: Can you imagine a scenario where John Ensign resigns his seat in the Senate amid controversy, embattled Governor Jim Gibbons appoints himself to the seat, indicted Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki becomes Governor, and a special Senate election in 2010 sucks all the potential Republican recruits against Harry Reid into that race?

Chris Cillizza: WHOAH.

I didn't even think of that.

I am disappointed in myself.

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Providence, R.I.: I enjoy reading the blog, but I have to ask: What's the deal with Mouthpiece Theater? How much work do you put into each week? What are your thoughts on it now that you're a few weeks in? Give us a behind the scenes look.

Chris Cillizza: 1. Mouthpiece Theater is to political web video what the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy debate was to political TV.

2. I am kidding. (Sort of)

3. Dana and I spend a few hours on the day of filming to find stories that fit our particular proclivities and writing the script. The taping usually takes an hour or two.

4. I am happy with Mouthpiece. The goal was to give people a different way to consumer political news and I hope we are doing that. Obviously it's a work in progress but it's been fun so far.

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Alexandria VA: the Mouthpiece Theater unofficial fashion critic here: the MT shopper has outdone herself with the gold ascots and the paisley smoking jackets, reaching the perfectly correct mixture of tradition and totally tacky. Kudos! (although your own performance earlier this week was oddly two-dimensional...)

Chris Cillizza: Yes, the wardrobe on Mouthpiece is improving rapidly....now if we could just do something about the two hosts...

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Need one piece on political non fiction?: How about "All The President's Men"? I hear the authors are pretty good.

Chris Cillizza: A wonderful book too.

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Chris Cillizza: And, scene.

That's all for today folks. There is word that the Fix chat is going weekly sometime in the near future so stay tuned for an announcement and spread the word.

Have a great weekend. And don't hike the Appalachian Trail.

Chris

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