Post Politics Hour

Washington Post national politics reporter Perry Bacon Jr. was online Thursday, Oct. 8 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest political news.

____________________

Perry Bacon Jr.: Good morning. Welcome to the chat. Look forward to your questions.

_______________________

Washington D.C.: I expected Obama to be a "think outside the box" kind of person. But he comes across as quite conservative in his decision making.

Wouldn't it be an advantage for Obama to champion a simple, no conditions, no mandates, universal healthcare program?

Perry Bacon Jr.: Other than running for president in 2008 rather than 2012 or 2016 (a very very important decision of course and a risky one), Obama hasn't taken huge, unusual moves in his campaign or in his presidency. I don't know what you're suggesting on health care, but I think the kind of bill doesn't hit all the boxes (not disruptive to current system, deficit neutral, etc.) that the Baucus bill does.

_______________________

Germantown, Md.: I think its finally time for Nancy to pull Charles aside and clarify that the slogan was "Change we can be believe in" not "Change in my bank account." Time for the Democrats to shame this man into submission. Will they have the guts to do it?

Perry Bacon Jr.: Right now, Rangel has the backing of leadership. I think this depends on how harsh the ethics committee report is. If he is accuses of major violations, it would put the Dems in trouble, as he is in charge of the tax writing committee in Congress. My guess is they might try to ease him into retirement if his ethics problems continue. Rangel is a Pelosi ally and also a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, which is a big block of House Democrats and often bands together to defend its members, so this is complicated.

_______________________

Boston: Both Senator Dole and Senator Frist say they would urge the GOP to support a Health Reform bill including a Public Option. Are the only GOP leaders who are willing to say that those who are no longer in the game?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I don't think Dole and Frist are for a public option. and I don't mean to harsh, but do people really believe Sen. Frist, who was one of the leading Republicans behind the Terri Schiavo effort, would have bucked conservative activists and voted for this health care bill if he were still in the Senate? I highly, highly doubt that. One of his quotes suggested if he were in leadership today, he would be crafting a bi-partisan compromise. I do think that the big names (jindal, mccellan) coming out for health reform do complicate the gop efforts to cast the bill as radical.

_______________________

Undo 8 years in 8 months: Mr. Bacon, aren't those who don't recognize President Obama cannot undo the Bush/Cheney's failures of 8 years in 8 months being unrealistic?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think in general expectations for Obama were out of control when he first entered. Some of those came from him; he's whole notion he could make Washington less partisan I always thought was a pipe dream. He suggested he could save the economy when I would argue no president can do that. On some issues, like Afghanistan, his approach is more similar to Bush than I think some of his supporters knew. But in some ways, his supporters seem to think he can wave a magic wand and do anything. In fact, Congress is a huge player in federal policy, they can stop something like the public option from passing.

_______________________

San Diego: Thanks for chatting this morning. The stock market began declining during the summer of 2008 and continued doing so through the election and inauguration. Conservatives in the media blamed the market's fear of Obama and his "socialism."

Well, the stock market has rebounded and is significantly higher than it was when Obama took office, and yet no one on the right is giving the President any props.

Would you please ask any conservatives that you interview if this means that socialism is a success? Of course I'm being snarky ... but only a little.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think people blamed the stock decline in 2008 on a number of different factors, but I don't think Obama's socialism was one of them. I think economists give the stimulus, which Obama championed, credit for improving the economy, but the public i think will respond when the unemployment rate goes down.

_______________________

Shouldn't be so complicated: I understand that Rangel has quite a bit of power, but he is also under investigation for clearly abusing that power. What he's being accused of is serious. I've been voting for Democrats for a while, but their support of Rangel seems pretty gutless, especially when they were using the "ethics" stick to beat Republicans with while Bush was in charge. It's dispiriting to watch.

Perry Bacon Jr.: The Republicans are loving attacking Pelosi on this issue, because of her "culture of corruption" rhetoric in 2006. I don't know if it will work. The Republicans lost in 2006 because Democrats defeated many Republican members who were being investigated. This is different, will voters in Minnesota really care that their congressmen allows Rangel to stay in power? I suspect not.

_______________________

How much is enough ?: If push comes to shove with Rep. Rangel and it becomes too embarassing for the President, who has more pull, won't the Black Caucus side with the President ?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I suspect Obama will duck getting involved in this kind of congressional issue unless he has to. If say Pelosi and leadership want Rangel out and he won't leave and the Black Caucus gets behind him, Obama could weigh for the other Democratic leaders, as he has done in the Patterson situation in New York to try to get a unpopular governor off the ballot. But this is still very early in the process; Rangel could be exonerated by the ethics committee.

_______________________

The last "outside the box" moment in Washington: Sarah Palin.

You know, they built the box for a reason.

Perry Bacon Jr.: Ha, very funny. But which one is more outside the box: a vice-president candidate from Alaska or a first-term black senator whose last name rhymes with Osama?

_______________________

disruptive to current system: Why shouldn't we disrupt the current system which clearly doesn't work compated to all other industrialized countries. Whenever the public is asked whether they prefer the present system of private insurance through employers or something like Medicare given to everyone, they go for Medicare for All by 2 to 1 (cf your own Post ABC Poll).

Sure those who have not been sick are satisfied with what they have, but they worry about the future and prefer a single payer system.

We could give an improved Medicare to evey man, woman, and child in America and it would not cost a penny more than we are now spending (probably a lot less) because of the enormous waste of high overhead and patient and physician compliance costs of private insurers.

The Baucus Bill is welfare for insurance executives and their stockholders.

Perry Bacon Jr.: A big fan of the Baucus health care bill. We should be clear and say the Baucus bill was hashed out with the White House, in some ways it is the Obama bill.

_______________________

Annapolis, Md.: It's complicated?! I'm a lifelong Democrat, but this "shielding" of senior Congressman by their brethren is appalling. And Congress wonders why their group approval ratings are in the tank...

Perry Bacon Jr.: Lots of Democrats seem annoyed with Rangel. I wonder how this plays with moderate Democrats head home this weekend.

_______________________

Saint Paul, Minn.: Hi Perry -- Thanks for taking questions today. More bad ethical news for Sen. Ensign, and yet he says he's not going to resign. Republicans don't seem to be rushing to his defense, though. Where do you think this is going to go?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think he will at some point resign. I think he is has very limited support in the Senate GOP and the scandal grows. The only reason he will stay is likely why Sanford has stayed in South Carolina: what else would he do? The moment Ensign resigns, his career is over.

_______________________

Fairfax County, Virginia: I'm following the Virginia campaign closely, but frustrated that the recent polls have been from the robocall groups, not the top-end polls where there's a person doing them. Now that we are in the final month, how often should we expect the more "major" polls, or is it completely random and unpredictable when news organizations and others will choose to do this? Thanks for the insight in advance.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I suspect there will be many more polls, including from the Post. It's a very interesting race, although I hope we in the press resist the urge to declare this a major referendum on the Obama presidency.

_______________________

Chicago and Olympics: A different take on the President's trip to advocate for the Olympics. It shouldn't be perceived as a failure, and I don't think the White House was naive enough to think his attendance at the meetings would guarantee Chicago got the prize. But given its his home city, and Chicagoans were BIG fundraisers and players for the Obama presidential candidacy, how could he have stayed home?

Win or lose, he needed to make the trip in order to maintain that strong Chicago support for when he runs for election. Do have done otherwise would have cost him politically...and even though Brazil was a shoe-in from the beginning, he would have been blamed had he not attended in person.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think Obama will have strong support in Chicago no matter what. I found the whole Olympics move bizarre and I know some of Obama's own aides did as well.

_______________________

Boston: I am an Obama supporter but have to admit today's Post background article on the miscommunications/misunderstandings on Afghan policy are troubling. Was it a case of a new national security team still working out the kinks before and after the March strategy announcement?

I'd read that National Security Adviser General Jones was still figuring out his role during that phase but still, isn't it squarely his responsibility to make sure there aren't these type of issues (especially with his military background)?

washingtonpost.com: Civilian, Military Officers At Odds Over Resources

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think some disagreements happen in goverment, so I don't find them that troubling. The situation on the ground there, with the disputed election, has also changed since March. And while Gen. Jones seems very annoyed by this notion, I think the unpopularity of sending more troops domestically is an issue.

_______________________

Princeton, NJ: Aren't the Republican efforts against Rangel complicated by Ensign?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I don't think so. House and Senate, different lawmakers, different situations. I don't think either side's best defense is "you have unethical lawmakers too?" I happen to think the Ensign situation is much easier to describe than Rangel's and therefore more politically difficult.

_______________________

Silver Spring, MD: Will the vote next Tuesday be on the Healthcare plan that the CBO just reported on? Also, will the CBO conduct a review of "the" healthcare bill after all the differenct bills are reconciled into one bill?

Perry Bacon Jr.: Yes and yes.

_______________________

Fairfax County, Virginia: Easy to say wait for the ethics report on Rangel. I completely agreed with that until I learned today that the so-called report has been more than a year in the making.

Can you explain when the ethics report might realistically be expected? Because if "never" is the answer, then we can't wait for the report. He has to go, voluntarily or involuntarily.

As an Obama supporter I haven't forgotten those Harlem precincts that had zero (zero) votes for Obama in the primary either. That's when I lost faith in Rangel.

Perry Bacon Jr.: Ethics doesn't comment on investigations. We have no idea of their timetable. I'm sure it will be by the end of year, but who knows when. I think the Democrats want that report out as bad as the Republicans do.

_______________________

Re Olympics: Aw come on. Can you imagine the hue and cry if Obama had NOT gone and then Brazil got the Games? He would have been widely called uncaring and "unpatriotic." His going was the best of two poor options.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I disagree. He could have easily said I"m too busy doing health care/afghanistan, etc. and Michelle Obama is there.

_______________________

Regarding the polling question: Are there any polls that aren't impossible to answer beyond yes, no, or pick from the above? I've been called a few times by a live pollster, but the questions have been useless. I don't see how you can get meaningful data out of check the box questions. I therefore don't believe 90% of the polling results that I read.

Perry Bacon Jr.: Polls that ask if you are voting for McCain or Obama would seem to work to me. I'm skeptical of polls that ask about complicated issues like the public option or questions that might cause people to lie (people wont' say they won't vote for a black person, a woman, a fat person, etc. even though I suspect that happens)

_______________________

Las Cruces, N.M.: I object to the criticism of our fair General in Afghanistan. His remarks have been used for domestic political purposes. In his remarks he stresses his willingness to do whatever his CinC decides, reiterates the previously voiced belief that time is of the essence, and correctly pointed out that counter-insurgency couldn't be accomplished with current troop levels.

His public dressing down was merely to create space for Obama as he tries to weasel out of his campaign stance that Afghanistan was the good war that was chaotic solely because Bush was an idiot.

There was a reason Bush didn't commit resources and treasure to Afghanistan. It's an unwinnable war, which Obama should have recognized before boxing himself in during the election. What's changed between November '08 and today? Nothing really! I thought Obama was the perfect candidate because of his ability to reason and be transparent? His suggestion that the U.S. is suddenly so capable of defeating Al Q. around the world that Afghanistan is no longer important is a bunch of crock and I hope the media calls him on the bunch of crock!

Perry Bacon Jr.: Wow, some strong feelings here and I won't endorse much of this. There's an interesting debate about what McChrystal should say in public and the influence his remarks should have.

_______________________

Army Officers and current climate: I have to say, I think the military officers who are grumbling about McChrystal's reception are failing to take into account the current climate, in which some opposition party members are not only proclaiming their disdain for the president, but are also actively advocating a coup and behaving in a really threatening manner. (Realistically, a guy brings an assault weapon to a meeting with a political leader because he's hoping to get a clear shot, not because he's exercising his Second Amendment rights.) Mr. Obama operates in a uniquely threatening environment and the military should be sensitive to that.

The military also has a history of borderline disloyalty to Democratic presidents. They openly disrespected Bill Clinton and, during the debacle of the 2000 election, young officers spoke on camera of being unwilling to serve a Democratic president. (They clammed up when the JAGs told them to, but they'd gotten their message out.)

My father was a Navy officer and he talked often about respecting the chain of command. Sorry, I think McChrystal should have been more circumspect and I don't think the situation is analogous to Shinseki's.

washingtonpost.com: Army Officers Criticize Rebuke

Perry Bacon Jr.: I am unware of the coup, but another comment on McChrystal.

_______________________

"Michelle Obama is there": The GOP spins things in whatever way they can form their usual (and by now quite expected) hissy fits. Nature of the beast. It's a no-win situation for Obama on every front... damned if he does -- or doesn't.

Perry Bacon Jr.: Republicans sounded a little out of touch in some of their remarks about the economy. I'll stick with my view it wasn't the White House's smartest move.

_______________________

Poplar Bluff, Mo: Perry, thanks for taking questions. Last night, I watched Keith Olbermann's "Special Comment" on the failure of public option so far. In today's Post, there was an article about SNL's lampooning President Obama. How long is the left begin to drift away from supporting Obama when he has compromised on health care, thinking about increasing troop levels in Afghanistan, and will not do anything about gays serving openly in the military? If I was the GOP, I would start branding the President as "Republican-Lite". Thank you.

washingtonpost.com: 'SNL' Skit No Laughing Matter

Perry Bacon Jr.: Obama has no real problem with the left. Polls shows liberals are his biggest support group. I suspect most people who voted for Obama couldn't explain the public option if their life depended on it. People like Olberman are angry and that will create more liberal angst in columns, but I would watch his numbers among independents much more.

_______________________

Re: Olympics: Had Bush gone to lobby for Dallas or Houston, people would have seen it as a waste of time. Which is what it was for Obama.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I don't think Bush is associated with those cities as Obama is with Chicago, but I agree with your basic premise.

_______________________

Virginia Gov: I know that the big urge is to find the results as being a referendum on Obama. I would say that if Deeds won, it would be only because Obama is strong. Not so if Deeds loses. Deeds has run one of the worst campaigns I have ever seen. He gives almost no reason to vote for himself, just repeats over and over again stories about his opponents thesis. What I would like to know from Deeds is exactly why I should vote FOR him. He has definitely not done so.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I think if Deeds wins, the biggest factor is how Democratic Virginia is becoming and was trending even before Obama won there in 2008. I think the thesis plays the biggest in getting turnout from Democrats in Northern Virginia. If Deeds loses, you say he ran a bad campaign, and he wasn't as strong as Kaine or Warner. But I don't the national mood right now is helping Deeds, who has not exactly embraced Obama.

_______________________

Dupont Circle, DC: So President Obama has confirmed with the Human Rights Campaign that he will keynote their annual stuffed penguin dinner for the A-list gays. Supposedly he's going to make some big announcement, I'm assuming it will be the standard lip service to gays and lesbians about how we need to continue to fight blah blah blah and look at me, I've nominated an openly gay man to be Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. For the Record, Clinton sent a gay to Luxembourg and even W. Bush to Romania. Any chance that this supposed big announcement is any movement on legislation? Seriously, the Hate Crimes bill had to be attached to the Defense Appropriations Bill, no movement on ENDA, DADT or DOMA. This gay is kind of getting tired of writing checks every April.

Perry Bacon Jr.: I don't expect Obama to declare his support for gay marriage in this speech. And I don't think this is a surprise. Obama ran a campaign focused on moving beyond Bush, a foreign policy based less on fighting wars and more on diplomacy and pocketbook issues like health care. He rarely touted gay rights, abortion rights, etc.

_______________________

Helena, Montana: I read that Senators Schumer and Carper are making some kind of deal for the public option that would allow states to opt out of it. I wonder if the states that are the lowest on the scales of infant mortality, infant low birth weight, and other metrics of health care would choose to deprive their citizens of the public option on ideological grounds.

Perry Bacon Jr.: Your question gets an interesting issue; many of the people who would benefit from this health care bill, because they have low incomes, live in places like Mississippi, which have conservative governors and are strong oppose the president. I don't think that provision will pass, but if it does, I suspect you would see Republican governors pretend to object but then take the money, as they did during the stimulus.

_______________________

Berkeley, Calif.: How is Robert Byrd's health?

Do you see him retiring at some point?

Perry Bacon Jr.: I don't know what the latest is with his health, but i dont't see him retiring, even though his health has prevented him from having much of a role in the Senate this year.

_______________________

Perry Bacon Jr.: Thanks for the chat folks.

Perry

_______________________

Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.