Ask Boswell: Redskins, Nats, Orioles and More

Washington Post sports columnist Thomas Boswell was online Thursday, October 15, at 11:00 a.m. ET to take your questions about the MLB playoffs, the Redskins, the Nats, the NFL, the Caps and the latest sports news and his recent columns.

The transcript follows.

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Boswell Column Archives

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Tom Boswell: No shortage ofsudjects today with Skins and LDS starting in baseball, plus, plus, plus...

So lets go!

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El Segundo, Calif.: Tom,

I agree with most of your column. After reading I reviewed the Redskins roster -- they're getting old too. Looking for some quality, core players with under four years in the league I found two, Orakpo and Landry. The last few drafts have been largely wasted, the offensive line will take years to retool. Put me down for things getting worse and/or a rebuilding time before they get better.

washingtonpost.com: Thomas Boswell: They've Fallen Far, But Still Far From the Bottom (Washington Post, Oct. 15)

Tom Boswell: This is a huge point. A friend, who's a lifelong Washingtonian and sport nut, asked me the other day if I shouldn't ask the same question about the Redskins that I always ask about the Nationals: Who on the roster could be a key part of a championship team in three years?

He thought: Landry, Rogers, Hall, Orakpo and ... That's not much.

I'd add, though not as stqars but good complimentary players, McIntosh and Horton on defense. Haynesworth is a big question by then. Huge 350-pound guys who look exhausted at times in October, don't seem to wear too well. But he's a vast talent -- if he can stay healthy and motivated. On offense, Cooley, yes, certainly. In three years, Portis: no. Huge gap to fill. Moss in three years, maybe, in a lesser role with somebody else as the No. 1 target. On the OL, nobody. Dockery? So you have an entire OL to build/rebuild.

Oh, and QB. Do you live with Campbell's apparent limits -- a 15th-best QB in the NFL at best -- and try to match him with a superior defense and a vastly better running game/O-line?

After talking around the league the last month, the Skins are probably going to have to take a shot at drafting a QB this year from a fairly deep pool. The "up-capped year" in '10 probably isn't going to be the talent bonanza for wealthy teams that some thought. Everybody from Roger Goddell to, increasingly, the union, suspects that NFL salaries will qactually go down a bit next year.

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Sitting On the Fence: Wow. Based on the responses to your The Redskins are Only Mediocre column, it looks like there is an out-and-out rebellion against Snyder and Cerrato. Apparently, if you're not against Redskins management, you're for them.

For your own safety, be careful out there!

Tom Boswell: I like to annoy people by actually having my own view.

Reaction to the Redskins has been consistently hysterical, and often wrong, since the George Allen era. The hardest thing to find, at least within 100 miles of DC, is a balanced and only semi-emotional perspective on the team. Yet, for some reason, that's always come fairly naturally to me.

If the Skins lose to the Chiefs at home, then it's probably a watershed event. K.C. has been beaten badly in 15 of its last 30 games. They are seldom even competitive on the road. They lost 13-10 to pathetic Oakland in KC. Their OT loss to Dallas last week probably means that, with a turnover edge, they are capable of beating the Skins. But I doubt they will.

I've been very critical of Snyder and Cerrato and am comfortable with that. Nothing changes there. But, even if you draft poorly, even if you keep your team in constant turmoil (except when Gibbs was back), even if you hire unqualified head coaches, even if you ignore your offensive line...add to the list whatever you please...it is extremely hard to be extremely bad when you spend as much money on salaries as Snyder has.

He's created the George Steinbrenner Connundrum: How long does it take a really bad owner with a truly huge wallet to drive a classic franchise into a deep hole. It took George a long time. He even went to five WS in six years in his early '76-'81 days. But, by '88-'91, the Yanks were far under .500.

As I said in my Sunday column, this season looks a lot like Spurrier's second season. If the Skins beat KC to get to 3-3, they can probably avoid being one of the 6-to-8 really bad teams and maybe even get to 7-9 (even though, at the moment, they would be Vegas underdogs in nine of their last 10 games). If they lose Sunday, the bottom drops out. It's a big game. Just six weeks ago, who would have believed it? As I said in my first Skins column in August in the first sentence, "The Redskins aren't very good." But I didn't think they'd need to beat the Chiefs at home to get to 3-3.

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Sec 114, Row E: Hey Bos, as a season ticket holder, the Nats will give 82 free tickets for renewing my 2 seats for the full 81 games ... don't they know how many tickets I had to eat out of the 81?

Has it gotten this bad? You give more tickets to full season ticket holders?

Tom Boswell: Yes, I was surprised/shocked when I saw the 50 percent giveaway free tickets to my Nats season-ticket group (of which I'm a tiny part).

On the one hand, it certainly makes you want to renew. All you have to do to get the free tickets, as I remember, was re-up by Nov. 1. But it may also give people the idea that they should cut back from an 81-game plan to a 40-game plan that actually gives them tickets to 60 games. Or cut a 40-game plan to 20 games, which is really 30 games.

Of course, you domn't get to use the "free tickets" in exactly your same seats. But you can use them for any comparable tickets in the park. And, at this point, there are tickets available to almost every game in almost every type of seating section.

Let me put it this way: It is a great deal for current season ticket holders. And an incentive to become a season-ticket holder. This is a 33.3 percent price cut, as I see it.

But it also proves a point I make over and over. Baseball attendance is not directly connected to on-field performance. There is, roughly, a one-year lag. If you are awful in '08 (102 loses), you pay the price in '09 -- tickets down 21percent -- regardless of offseason improvements, like getting Dunn. So, because they were so bad in '09 (103 loses), they will pay a price for it in '10, even though they signed Strasburg and will presumably sign two or three free agents.

The Lerners need to understand this. They can't say, "Hey, we spent some money and made some improvements. Where are the fans?" They'll come. But it will take a while. You have to keep improving. Once you mess things up, it takes patience to wait for things to improve again. That's part of the price you pay for alienating youre fan base with a worst-in-the-sport product in the first two years in a new ballpark.

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TV Land: Could you provide any illumination to the baseball scheduling process? Phillies fans have to stay up past 1 a.m. on a work night, Rockies fans can't watch a road game without taking a half day off work, and Angels fans who went to church on Sunday missed part of their game. I assume there is some sort of rhyme or reason that I'm just not seeing.

Tom Boswell: No, there is no reason for it. At least not a reason that has very much to do with fans.

However, ask a different question: How might this help TV and ratings? Then you'll start seeing the light.

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McLean, Va.: Why does my tummy ache every time I recall that we gave up two picks (nevermind Champ) for Portis, two picks for T.J. Duckett, two picks for Jason Taylor, and two picks for Brandon Lloyd?

I get the feeling we could have used those after all.

Tom Boswell: Yes, that could be part of the problem, couldn't it!

On opening day, the Skins had 18 or 19 (expensive) free agents on their rosters. That was two-to-three times as many as the Giants, Eagles or Cowboys.

But, as you point out, the Skins haven't even been able to spend money particularly well. Snyder, obviously, has no eye for the game and Cerrato should have gone long ago, as the whole town finally seems to recognize.

Why did it take so long? Well, the four years of Gibbs kept everybody on hold in evaluating the team. They made the playoffs twice without a franchise QB. Then, perhaps because the parts of a decent team were already in place when he arrrived -- including a good cohesive locker room after the Sean Taylor trauma -- it took half a season for things to come a bit unhinged. Remember, early in '08, even Zorn joked about how his offense was "Ground Zorn" because he simply fell back into using the Gibbs approach while installing his own offense. I pointed out then that what was working best for Zorn was simply using what Gibbs had already given him. But injuries to the OL and, I suspect, a few weeks of film for the league to study on Zorn, threw everthing into reverse.

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Fairfax, Va.: If/When Zorn is fired, logically would Vinny be out the door as well? Wasn't Zorn hired on Vinny Cerratto's recommendation? I thought I remembered Cerratto saying the hire was on him, and he is also responsible for the last two drafts, which both look like failures as well.

Can/will Dan Snyder be able to fire his raquetball partner?

Tom Boswell: On any sanely run franchise, this would be the end for Cerrato. Yes, he said Zorn was his hire. But was it really? Was he just covering for Snyder because famous coaches didn't want to come to Washington to work for him, like Bill Cowher? Vinny has always been Snyder's shield. He deflects criticism. He says, "It was me," when it was Dan.

I watched the same syndrome in Baltimore, but worse, when Mike Flanagan and others would propose good moves -- sign Ortiz from Minny, make the Beckett-Lowell for Bigbie-plus trade -- only to have Peter nix it. But the O's front office guys would take the fall for him or never say that their advice was not followed.

It took Angelos an eternity to learn. He didn't have a four-year Gibbs interruption in the pain and criticism to soften it. And it took him 10 straight losing years to hire MacPhail and only after Bud got in it, pushing him to act sensible and not become a kind of shunned outsider in the game.

The last time I spoke with Goodell, he was nowhwere close to this kind of Franchise Intervention. You can't force it. But you can certainly facilitate it.

That's another reason I pointed out in this a.m.'s column that the Redskins are -- not yet -- truly bad. Really major changes usually take a complete fall to the bottom. And often that takes a long time, complete with slashed attendance (like the Orioles cut in half.) Is that really what Redskin fans want? Is this a case of "Be careful what you wish for?"

For now, the Skins still have the possibility, at least in theory, that Snyder shows Cerrato the door or put him in a secondary role -- despite a "merely" mediocre season, and hires a team builder as President to run the ship with little imput from him.

I have to admit that this does not seem to be "in character" for the owner.

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San Diego, Calif.: Here is a Nats question for you: Strasburg is presently pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Why should the Nats, instead of pitching him there, have made a deal with Mexicali of the Mexican Pacific League to pitch him in Mexico this winter? The players are all AAA quality or better (Mexicali has five Cubs prospects on their roster), and Mexicali is only 90 miles from his home in San Diego ...

Tom Boswell: The Nats aren't trying to reinvent the wheel. They are developing Strasburg the standard way. And one reason Boras was comfortable dealing with Rizzo was that he assumed Mike would be patient and by the book with SS.

Why would you want to send a 21-year-old to another country -- any other country -- right after getting a $15M deal!? You want to have your people around him to help him.

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Section 405, nosebleed row: Bos,

Thanks for the column today - it talked me down from the ledge somewhat.

I think the reason why Redskins fans are so apoplectic at ownership (aside from game day at FedEx being expensive and a pain in the backside to get to and out of) is twofold.

One, guys like me grew up during Gibbs I and know how good the Redskins have been. Wilbon mentioned the Cubbies, but no living Chicago fan has memories of a championship.

Two, with the resources the team has (see 'game day' above), the team should be a whole lot better. My question is: does Cerrato have naked pictures of Snyder? Why does he keep him around (this is a serious query). Thanks.

Tom Boswell: Yes, you make the one point that I wish I'd made again -- the Skins are getting the most pathetic return on investment in the NFL.

Their record, relative to their payroll, is certainly as bad as any team in the NFL. But, man, I've made that "underachievement" point so many timwes before (as everybody has) that you'd think it was unnecessary.

I was looking at it from an "absolute" level, not a "salary-adjusted" perspective.

It's the salary-adjusted view that makes Snyder and cerrato look so bad. But didn't I just write that column on Monday? And I think I placed Snyder in the Marshall-Griffith-Short-Angelos tradition of Bad Owners before the season even began.

It's helpful to look at issues/teams from different angles. Also, the Awful teams phenomenon is an NFL wide story. It interests me that a team can fall apart as badly as the Skins and still not come close to teams in streaks like 1-21, 2-23, 2-28. The Rams are about to go 0-16 "around the corner" from last year. Teams like the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, etc., have been bad for many years, almost without any winning seasons. And this is in a league that gives bad teams very easy schedules the next year! The NFL will do anything to make it look like "everybody has a chance" when, in reality, the sked often makes it hard for a 5-11 team to avoid having an 8-8 year every once in a while to keep its fans hooked on the possibility of progress.

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Mardella Springs, Md.: We're awaiting the first planned November Classic, and Peter Gammons is advocating adding two additional wild card teams into the mix. Am I the only person hoping for the Twins and Rockies to make it to the Series in 2010?

Dream on, I know, but outdoor baseball games in November played in Denver and Minneapolis might bring these idiots to their senses. Probably not, but we can hope.

Tom Boswell: Thanks. I agree.

Eight teams in the baseball playoffs is the right number. I heard a friend, who knows a lot about sports but almost nothing about baseball, say that what the game needed was another round of playoffs. "Why is the baseball post-season so short?" I almost fell over.

The sport needs to start earlky enough and/or trim its schedule by a few regular season games, so that, even with a couple of candelations and a seven-game Series, the whole thing ends before November.

Period. Next case.

(P.S.: The owners want every one of the 162 games. They are wrong. It's not in the game's best interest or theirs.)

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Today's Colu, Mn.: Just when I start frothing at the mouth, and bleating and blathering to my family and friends, you provide perspective.

Can you please loan me your kerchief so's that I may wipe my face?

Many thanks!

washingtonpost.com: Thomas Boswell: They've Fallen Far, But Still Far From the Bottom (Washington Post, Oct. 15)

Tom Boswell: Ha!

Seriously, folks, people all over the country snicker at Washington for constantly being so over-the-top and usually off the mark in evaluating the Redskins.

WE know that New York fans, in general, overvalue their own stars and are a very provincial sports town -- despite being a huge and sophisticated town otherwise. New York is knowledgeable about sports, but also hopelessly homerish.

Well, the "book" on us is that we have lost our marbles over the Redskins and don't want to find 'em. And that, as a result, while we support the other teams in town adequately, we don't quite give them the enthusiasm that they deserve especially when they win.

However, I prefer a town that's Redskin-crazed (and it has been all my life) to a town that's not really crazy about anything. Again, do we really want to see the Redskins fall to the bottom of the barrell just to "show" the owner the errors of his ways? Isn't it possible that he's capable of learning from his (repeated) mistakes without a punishment quite that bad?

That's not a rhetorical question. I really don't know the answer to that last one. When a guy walks around everywhere surrounded by a bunch of body guards worthy of a President, is he totally in touch with reality? He marched around the field in Detroit with the whole entourage thing going, plus Tom Cruise, then came through the Charlotte press box with a phalanx of security guys. (Is that the easiest job in America or what..."protecting" Dan Snyder...from what, all the people who don't want his autograph?) When a person's Look at Me quotient is that high, it's possible that, as long as he's in the discussion, he's pretty happy.

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Bowie, Md.: The NFL schedule isn't as differential as it used to be. Division mates always have 14 games in common (counting playing each other as "in common"). The only difference is that first place team has two games against other first places, second two games against second ...

Tom Boswell: Good point. Thanks.

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Rockville, Md.: Imagine this: Next Monday night the Redskins vs. Eagles. Zorn's last stand as coach with each player, play-call and strategy move being critiqued by the man who could be the next head coach (Gruden) conceivably as early as the next game. Doesn't that make for must see TV?

Tom Boswell: That would be Must Laugh TV.

Another reason to hope the Skins win Sunday. If they don't, Gruden might already be the coach by the Eagles game. (And I enjoy Gruden on MNF. That is a shock. He always looks wound much too tight as a coach. The whole "Chucky" act. But he's really got a nice self-depricating goofy streak on TV.)

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Silver Spring, Md.: Bos, The Nats (especially Rizzo) have moved with dispatch to fill front office holes with what appears to be highly respected, experienced baseball guys. Given everything Rizzo's done with player and front office moves since he became (interim) GM last summer, what's your evaluation of the job he's doing?

Tom Boswell: I think he's doing very well. He must be happy to get n assistant GM in place. He's been doing both jobs since Bowden left on March 1.

What's most encouraging is that at three important positions -- including Dominican operations -- he has attracted known proven people, not "Who is he?"

Quality attracts quality. Bowden, despite his "sizzle" at times, had such a spotty personal reputation in the game that he didn't attract many quality people, with a couple of noteable exceptions like Bob Boone.

Rizzo is the opposite. No sizzle. Lots of steak. And it looks like quality people want to join him. Also, for a GM, his ego is about as totally under control as anybody you can imagine. If you can't work with him, who canm you work with?

Now we find out if he can pull of free agent signings tghis off-season. The Nats need to strike early, not wait and see who is left in the bargain bin and hope to get lucky, as they did with Dunn and Beimel last year. I'm pretty sure Rizzo and kasten feel this way. But new owners tend to overvalue their limited experience and the lesson of last winter was "wait and get 'em cheap."

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Speaking of draft picks: Bos, since I actually am a Ravens fan and just follow the Redskins since I live here, I thought I'd make a comparison on draft picks, since that one chatter brought up all those picks given away in trades. I think it gives a clear example of the failings of the Redskins "brain trust."

Here's what the Redskins have picked up in the first three rounds of the last two drafts:

2008: Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, Malcolm Kelly, Chad Rhinehart

2009: Brian Orakpo, Kevin Barnes

Here's who the Ravens picked up in the first three rounds of the last two drafts:

2008: Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Tavares Gooden (starter at LB), Tom Zbikowski (back up safety), Oniel Cousins (back up OT)

2009: Michael Oher, Paul Kruger (DE-LB back up), Lardarius Webb (back up CB)

The Ravens had a clear need to improve their offense and in two years time, added a starting QB, a starting RB and a starting OT, three of the most important spots on an offense. They also picked up four useful players to flesh out a great defense.

The Redskins, meanwhile, didn't really address needs, and they didn't pick good players! The only exception appears to be Orakpo. Did any of those other guys really make the Redskins better? Isn't that the point of the draft?

Tom Boswell: Thanks.

Many in the NFL think that Orakpo is a superior pass rusher bt will be rookie-lost as a LB for quite a while. He got turned inside out on man-to-man coverage with the TE on Charlotte's 17-yard TD pass to cut the Skins lead to 17-9. However, Orakpo may turn out to be an excellent, though hardly obscure, pick.

I went back through every Skins draft for the last 30 years yesterday and compared them to several other teams. Yes, I'm a nut on that, too. You can now find out how many years every player in the NFL ended up being "the primary starter" at his position for his team. For example, the Skins draft picks in '81 -- their best year ever -- had a total of 43 seasons as starters at their positions. Mark May 10, Russ Grimm 9, Dexter Manley 9, Darryl Grant , Charlie Brown 4, Clint Didlier 3. The previous year, they drafted Art Monk 14.

Since '00, here are the Skins totals. being a starter in '09 is not included.

'00...14

'01...11

'02...7

'03...6

'04...9

'05...4

'06...5

'07...2

'08...1

Obviously, this is not apples-to-apples. Recent players who are starters, likle Landry, will keep adding to their numbers. Still, it gives a general sense of how little impact the Skins have gotten from the drafts of the Snyder-Cerrato years.

Also, there are measures of the total impact of a player's whole career. I don't like the methodolgy much. But in the '80's, the Skins had players with career numbers like Green 104, Monk 93, Mann 81 and many in the 40's and 50's.

In recent times, there are far fewer of those players, tough there have been some nice ones: Champ Bailey 96 (ooops), Samuels 60, Jansen 49, LaVar 46, Cooley 35, taylor 34, Camnpbell 24, Rogers 18.

Among QB's: Rypien 57, Frerotte 57, Humphries (took a team to Super Bowl) 50.

Again, no time to explain the method. You can find it at pro-football-reference.com.

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Alexandria, Va.: Randle-El was a pretty good receiver for the Steelers. Makes me wonder if he's really not all that, or if it's just the fact that he plays for the Redskins that you don't hear about him much anymore.

Tom Boswell: He's a slot receiver, not a real WR. When used properlky, he has value. Might run a few single wing, I mean "wildcat" plays, eventually.

He's a terrible "big play" punt returner now. Really he's just back there to "fair catch" or return a few yards then dig a hole. No problem. That's what they want him to do. No fumbles, sure hands. Maybe a good return once in a great while. They don't want to risk Moss back there very often. And there's nobody else.

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Longer Season: Keep it 162 but play more double headers!

Tom Boswell: Wow!

I haven't heard that. The union might fight it. And they might be right. But one "split-gate" DH a month -- 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. games the same day -- might be conceivable. As for old-fashioned DHs, just for the fun of it (for fans) that won't happen. It's about the money. You could only do it with split-gates. That's probably a problem. But I still like the idea. Schedule them before an off day?

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Navy Yard, Washington, D.C.: Tom,

The Angels -- destined to win it all? After the Twinkies fell to the Yanks, the Angels are the only team remaining that I feel positively about.

And while you didn't write it, on that same note, the very moving article on the Angels and Nick Adenhart had me struggle to hold back tears on the metro this morning. Just another reminder that the Post has some of the finest sports writers in the country.

washingtonpost.com: Angels Are Touched by a Rookie Lost, and Never to Be Forgotten (Washington Post, Oct. 15)

Tom Boswell: For those who might have missed it. I haven't read it yet. Will right after this.

Picking the LDS is driving me crazy. And just realized I haven't done it in this chat.

I've been pulling for a Yanks-Dodgers Series with Torre back to New York with Manny vs. A-Rod ever since Ramirez landed in L.A. (I realize this is shallow of me.)

My favorite team is, easily, the Phils. They have a ton of heart and a much better team with Lee, Ibanez and Werth becoming even better. But Lidge is still a nightmare. I'm glad he survived two saves against the Rox. But he's just using a mid-to-high'80's "cutter" and praying, it seems to me, that they are looking for the fastball/slider that he threw 99% of the time his whole career. How long can that last?

I think Manuel, a fav, too, really messed up Pedro Martinez when he left himin for 130 pitches in a September start. I couldn't believe it at the time. Pedro had been good. After that, he was toast. Now they're thinking of bringing him back for Game Three. Anything can happen for one game. Maybe his arm has bounced back. But if they'd kept him fresh with 90-to-100 pitch starts and moved Myers and madson into the 8-9 inning roles, I'd have liked their chances better. Charlie is loyal and hates to abandon Lidge after his Perfect Season in '08.

Dodgers have no ace, unless Kershaw keeps pitching as he did in the division series. And they merely have good power, not great. But LA is really deep -- two LH relievers (Sherrill!), pinch hitters.

I'll go with Angels and Phils. But I think these could be two long wonderful series. I'm much more interested in watching them than picking them.

Key factor. The Yankees really want to use a three-man rotation with Sabathia in games 1-4-7 with three days and four days off, respectively, between starts. However, if Friday night is rained out in NY, then that's not possible, unless he came back on two days rest in a Game Seven.

Mike Scoscia says the weather forcast is so bad that "We may face CC seven times."

The Angels have always hit him well. But he's at his career peak now.

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Why readers are panning your column: It's about hope. It's not just today's win- loss record that matters; in fact for a bad team it's less important than prospects for the future. All of the teams you cite as being worse off than the Redskins can point to something as a reason to see light at the end of the tunnel:

Lions - early returns on Stafford as a franchise QB are good, Calvin Johnson, finally got rid of Millen

St. Louis Rams - yes, in serious rebuild mode but have one of the brightest defensive minds in the game as head coach, Spagnuolo, also Stephen Jackson

Chiefs - creative playcalling from Haley, Matt Cassel, finally got rid of Herm Edwards

Browns - true, Mangini off to a rocky start but he was runner-up coach of the year two years ago, Josh Cribbs is the most exciting returner in football

Bills - Dick Jauron is gone, but they still have TO, Marshawn Lynch, and Marcus Stroud

Bucs - in full rebuild mode, Kellen Winslow, Antonio Bryant, Cadillac Williams, Aqib Talib

Titans - a good team having a bad year, will be back in force next year

Jaguars - Del Rio is also gone, might be addition by subtraction there, Jones-Drew, Mathis, move to a bigger market will generate more cash for free agents

Seattle - one of the best home fields in football, new start under Mora Jr., T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Raiders - okay, total dysfunction, resemble the Redskins

Redskins - see Raiders, Oakland

Tom Boswell: Lots of good info for chatters. Thanks.

Once people (finally) work up a good "hate," they don't want it spoiled. That's okay. Have fun.

See you all next week.

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