Real Wheels

Washington Post cars columnist Warren Brown was online Friday, February 12, at 12 p.m. ET to discuss the auto industry. Plus, he gave purchase advice to readers. Brown has covered the cars industry for The Washington Post since 1982.

The transcript follows

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Warren Nostradamus?: Hi Warren

Didn't you predict problems for Toyota several years ago? I seem to recall you mentioning Toyota would experience problems when their manufacturing volumes increased to levels close to GM/Ford.

Is this typical in manufacturing? Do you think the problems arise with the increase in cars (a lot of Camry's) or the increase in models (FJ Cruiser, Venza, Yaris)

Thanks

Warren Brown: Nostradamus?

Go back and read the history of his times. Investigate his philosophical and religious beliefs. Basically, his predictions were based on an understanding of man's folly--the dangerously, tragically misleading belief that physical entities--be they nations, corporations, or economies--can grow eternally. That belief usually leads to hubris, mistakes, pride-induced cover-ups, and eventual disaster.

In the Toyota matter, the U.S. media and and consumer protection industry have been as guilty as Toyota.

Both the media and U.S. consumer advocate business--because it is a business, their non-profit status notwithstanding--turned their heads whenever Toyota buyers complained about the problem. It was as if the company, the media, consumer advocates and their legislative friends all had a stake in protecting Toyota's reputation--perhaps to use Toyota's presumed infallibility to pummel Detroit's car companies into submission. (Poor Detroit. Victims of their own hubris. They chose to ignore or fight their home-based critics, rather than fix what needed to be fixed and attack their critics lies and misunderstandings when those needed to be fought. Meanwhile, their critics continued to wave the flag of Saint Toyota in their faces.)

But those of us who hung out in the real world, the place where people actually drove cars, bought them and had them serviced, knew that Toyota was nobody's saint.)

Check WWW.ToyotaProblems.com.

Check www.CarComplaints.com

Check recalls and service bulletins at www.NHTSA.dot.com.

Look up Japan-based consumer groups. How happy have they been with Toyota?

To put it simply, Toyota was following GM's history lockstep, while a U.S. media was busy looking elsewhere, while the U.S. consumer advocacy business was busy holding up Toyota as a "good example" of how car companies should behave, and while unthinking politicians (Hello, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) were doing much the same thing in a misguided pursuit of votes. Here's the reality:

. Toyota pursued the truck and SUV business, gulping gasoline with the same passion as the Detroit Three.

. But it used the profits from the truck business smarter. It understood that Americans loved symbols more than anything else. The gas-electric Prius? Toyota admitted that it was supported by its sales of trucks and other gas-guzzlers, which it continues to sell. But it had long devised a marketing ruse to sell models such as the FJ Cruiser via the Internet and "enthusiast" buff-book media, while building its enviro-friendly reputation via the general media, and the media played on.

. Defects deemed safety issues, such s transmission problems, for the Detroit 3 somehow wound up being classified as non-safety items, for Toyota and Honda. Only safety and emissions-control items are recallable. Poor Nissan. It apparently didn't enjoy the Toyota-Honda magic. It often was treated in the media like GM, Ford, and Chrysler. I have my theories about that.

. Bottom line in this way too long response is that Toyota, like GM, made exactly the same mistakes as GM in its pursuit of market share and the dubious title of No. 1 Automobile Manufacturer.

Nostradamus would tell you that accurate prediction of such unhappiness is not a matter of some mysterious wisdom. It is, in fact, the history of man--as Britain, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, the old Soviet Union, and now, the United States, have learned. Is the global environment next?

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Harrisburg, Pa.: I have a 2005 Prius, which has been recalled for the floor mat/accelerator problem. When do you think Toyota will be fixing this problem? Their website says to wait for the second letter, which will tell me to bring the car in for the fix.

Warren Brown: All I can tell you is to wait for the second letter. Presumably, Toyota won't issue it until it actually has found a fix.

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Rockville, Md.: Hi Warren:

I hope you were able to get out today. On the Toyota brake problem, the Post had an article about some manufacturers having a manual override. I'm worried that our new Honda Civic doesn't have one. Does the Ford Fusion or Focus have one? Can the government require specific equipment especially as companies move to computers which we all know don't always work, i.e., the Metro trains?

Keep warm and dry.

Warren Brown: I wouldn't put too much faith in the government requiring a specific fix. Remember air bags? The government required those, too. But the early versions killed people, hurt people, and saved them. Luckily, they saved far more people than they killed or injured. I once tried explaining that to the grieving family of an air bag victim. They called me an "ass." I couldn't disagree.

We need to grow up. Life has inherent risks. Driving anything increases that risk. The goal is to reduce driving risks as much as possible. Government regulation helps. But it's not at all infallible.

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Minivan time: Our family has grown, happily, and its time for the space and convenience of a minivan. We're leaning towards a Honda Odyssey -- I just wish we could get driver seat memory for less money -- whoever has the kids will be driving the minivan, so we'll be alternating drivers frequently. Can seat memory be added aftermarket or is it too complicated?

Also, would you recommend other minivans that are as safe and reliable? Our attempts to see Toyota Siennas have been frustrating--2010s sold out at local dealerships (Philadelphia area) and 2011s aren't available yet.

Warren Brown: Congrats on the growth of your family. (Yes, you population control advocates. I know that population growth embraces its own disasters. But, what can I say? I love kids.) Anyway, the Odyssey is a darned good minivan. So is the Chrysler Town & Country, and the latter has automatic front seats.

You might also take a look at Hyundai's offering in that segment. Good luck.

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Bethesda, Md.: My wife's Volvo 2005 xc90 4wd v6 sucks in the snow. Won't even make it up my driveway with a little ice. Could it be the tires?

Warren Brown: You got "all season radials?" If so, it's probably the tires. Put some real snow tires on that thing.

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Fairfax County, Va/: Do you have a write-up on the Mercedes Benz GLK? Where can I get a copy of it?

Warren Brown: Hey, Rocci, Ria and Sakina: I think we wrote this one up last year. Could you guys check and answer? many, many thanks.

A review of the 2009 Mercedes-Benz GLK

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Snow land: Some years ago, during the last "runaway acceleration" scare, automotive writers set out in the muscle cars of the era to see whether the brakes would stop a car with the accelerator jammed to the floor, and the consensus was that the brakes would always be powerful enough to overcome the gas. Theoretically, that's what should still happen, right? But sometimes it doesn't. In the present crisis, we have learned that many cars now control the throttle with electronics rather than a direct cable. Question: Are brakes still operated mechanically? Or does software control them too? I'm wondering whether the brake electronics are somehow reducing stopping power under conditions when it would be most needed. Do antilock brake systems stop functioning under simultaneous hard acceleration? Could throttle software override brake software, instead of the other way around as it should? I can't help but suspect that the Toyota problem might involve more than the accelerator pedal.

Warren Brown: Good question, Snow land:

I was a part of that media frenzy driving muscle and "regular" cars at top speed and slamming on the brakes. All of those cars had mechanically linked braking systems. All stopped after some distance, even on wet surfaces. I doubt that any real physicist would call those "tests" scientific. So many variables involved.

But it certainly is possible to have electronically controlled braking systems, electronically controlled anything, disrupted by electromagnetic forces. Which is why car companies everywhere subject their vehicles to strong electromagnetic waves to test their vulnerability.

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Harrisburg, Pa. (again): I thought Toyota HAD found the fix for the floor mat problem. I get the impression that they've decided the other acceleration problem was more urgent, so we got pushed back.

Warren Brown: My HUNCH is that Toyota, at this moment, really doesn't know. My apologies, if I'm wrong. But if I'm right, Toyota needs to do a much, much better job of explaining itself. In this instance, it would behoove consumers, media, and government people to treat Toyota the same way they would have treated GM. DEMAND A FULL, ACCURATE, AND CLEAR EXPLANATION. NOTHING LESS.

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Vienna, Va.: Sonata 2011 -- When will you be able to test drive that? Any first thoughts on it?

Warren Brown: Early spring. Here's hoping that it is as good (without "for the money" attached) as previous Sonata models.

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Nashville, Tenn.: "...turned their heads whenever Toyota buyers complained about the problem. It was as if the company, the media, consumer advocates and their legislative friends all had a stake in protecting Toyota's reputation--..."

Mr. Brown: I have heard you make this claim a couple of times. Why do you think they turned their heads on these problems?

Warren Brown: I think the media, consumer groups, and legislators were so intent on pummeling "big business" in the form of the Detroit 3, for the right reasons in many cases and for political and legal convenience in many others, they had a vested interest in holding up Toyota as a "good" business example, while steadfastly ignoring the fact that Toyota was committing many of the same sins and pursuing many of the same business strategies as GM.

I routinely pointed that out, which gave many people the erroneous impression that I was biased defender of domestic car companies. Ha! All of those companies would tell you, based on my printed record, that I wasn't blindly pro-Detroit. I was just calling for fairness. In many cases, GM, Ford, and Chrysler, in comparison with Toyota and Honda, have NOT been treated fairly. I stand by that assessment.

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Vero Beach, Fla.: We would like to buy or daughter a new car for under $20,000. She is student at a Boston area liberal arts college. She just got her drivers license in January and has very little driving experience.

My wife told me about the Nissan Versa, Honda Fit and two Toyota models, the Yaris and Scion. We want her car to be very safe, reliable, able to carry 4 people, get over 30 mpg, be easy to drive and have at least a 1.6L engine with automatic transmission. It should also be able navigate snow filled streets.

Which of the three brands/trims mentioned above would you recommend and why? Since we have just barely begun our research, I know nothing about any of these cars. In fact until my wife mentioned them to me, I had never heard of them.

My last two cars were a 2003 BMW Z-4 and I now drive a BMW 128i Coupe and it has more than lived up to my expectations. However, over a 7-month period, I conducted a massive research project gathering a great deal of info and learned much about the BMW and similar competitive cars from from Japan and Europe. i/e., Volkswagen, Audi, Saab, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz. I gleaned this info from car sales personnel, brochures, web sites, driving the cars and reading auto magazines. Consequently I knew enough to make a wise decision as well as what I was getting when I bought the BMW.

However, I do not want to go through this exhaustive, time consuming process for her car. I believe my wife and daughter should do the research and i will help out using my general knowledge about autos and buying a new vehicle.

Thank you for reading my question.

Warren Brown: Of those mentioned, my favorite is the Honda Fit. Great build quality, good utility for a small car, actually fun to drive. Inasmuch as you once treated yourself to a BMW, why not spend a bit more money on your daughter, and get her a Mazda3, which even you might enjoy?

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Boston, Mass.: I'm so torn. We need a minivan to accommodate a growing family. After owning a Subaru Forrester with AWD, I was set on the Toyota Sienna as it's the only minivan with AWD option. Even after the recalls, I was still on board but with all the discussions about quality problems, I'm hesitating.

Would you still buy/trust a Toyota? How much will I notice not having AWD? Thanks!

Warren Brown: Yes, I would still buy and trust Toyota. Toyota makes good vehicles. But it isn't now and never was infallible, as its press clips would have us believe. It has made errors in the past and will make them in the future. It's just that its mistakes have finally caught up with its absolutely brilliant public relations department. Those world-class flacks, perhaps the best in the world, sooner or later will pull Toyota out of the mud. I'd buy the Sienna.

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Bristow, Va.: After the Toyota recall problems have been taken of, Toyota will survive, thrive and continue to be one of the best cars you can drive, no jive!

Warren Brown: And it will still be run by human beings who make mistakes. Sho' 'nuff.

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Warren Brown: Thanks for joining us today. Please come back next week. My sincere apologies for today's typographical errors. Thanks Rocci and Sakina for another fine production. Ria! Give this woman a standing ovation for keeping the test cars moving in the snow! Yeahh!!

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