Watching the Big Ones: GDP and the Fed

This week is as big as it gets for economy-watchers. Wednesday, the Commerce Department will report how much the gross domestic product rose or fell in the first quarter, the broadest indication yet of how bad the downturn is (economists expect a piddling 0.3 percent annual growth rate). That afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce whether it cut the federal funds rate for the sixth straight policymaking meeting (analysts think a quarter-percentage point cut is most likely, but there is a significant chance of no cut at all). On Friday, the Labor Department will announce what happened to the job market in April (the consensus projection is 75,000 fewer jobs and a slightly higher unemployment rate).

-- Neil Irwin