Big Brown, Speed Racer

The Derby Champion Heads to Pimlico With Enormous Expectations. What Are the Odds?

In the 1950s, a handicapper named Len Ragozin devised a revolutionary system for rating the performance of racehorses that factored in time, weight carried, positioning during a race, track surface conditions and wind. Based on calculations applied to each race, Ragozin assigned horses a number between zero and 40; the lower, the better.

By the late 1960s, Ragozin's "Sheets" had surfaced publicly, and their perceived accuracy became so valued that they cost $5 per race, nearly as much as an entire copy of the Daily Racing Form.

When Ragozin's company calculated the performance by Big Brown on May 3 in the Kentucky Derby, it made a startling discovery: the 3-year-old colt had recorded a - 3/4 , the lowest number in the modern history of the race.

"This is by a quarter of a point better than any other," said Len Friedman, 66, a hardcore Sheets player from Brooklyn and head handicapper at Ragozin's company. "Secretariat ran a 1/2 ."

In 1973, Secretariat won the Triple Crown -- the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes -- and entered racing lore as perhaps the greatest horse of all time. No one has yet come forward and placed Big Brown in such hallowed company, but those involved with him and others who watch him run are captivated by his authority, speed and power.

When the horses line up Saturday for the Preakness at Pimlico, Big Brown is likely to be the shortest-priced favorite in the 133-year history of the race.

"He has that stride," said Big Brown's jockey, Kent Desormeaux. "Every jockey who reads those words knows exactly what I mean. Each stride, each leap forward covers an enormous amount of ground, and it's effortless. They change leads [the lead hoof] so fluidly you almost have to look at their legs to make sure they've done it. They don't exactly quicken their stride; they just add power to it. These are the little things that the freaks of horses, the thoroughbred racers, have -- that stride."

No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, and the list of those considered to be the next sure thing continues to grow like a pile of losing tickets -- Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense.

Yet, Big Brown has done more than flash potential. His Kentucky Derby victory laughed in the face of history: Besides his record-setting Ragozin number, Big Brown became the first horse to win America's classic race off just three career starts since the filly Regret in 1915. He also became the first runner since the gelding Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to win from the outside No. 20 post position.

National Racing Museum and Hall of Fame historian Allan Carter only had to look to last year's Kentucky Derby to put Big Brown's performance in perspective.

"The best thing is comparing him to Curlin," Carter said, referring to the 2007 Horse of the Year who finished third in the Kentucky Derby behind Street Sense and Hard Spun. "He had only had three starts and never raced as a 2-year-old. As good as he was in three starts -- and he's the best horse on the planet right now -- he didn't win the Derby, and I think it was because of his lack of experience."

Unless Gayego joins the field, Big Brown will become the first horse since Citation in 1948 to scare off all his Derby rivals from trying the Preakness.

"He was so intimidating," Carter said of Citation. "Only [five] horses ran in the Derby against him, and after that a lot of people said, 'To hell with it.'

The only other time before that was in 1922, when the Derby and Preakness were held on the same day before the advent of the Triple Crown.

Frank Carulli, the linemaker for the Maryland Jockey Club, watched the Kentucky Derby from the Pimlico press box, and marveled at what he saw.

"I was mainly focused on Big Brown because that's who I bet," said Carulli, who sets the morning-line odds for the Preakness and watches close to 10,000 races a year. "The camera angles provided were fabulous. I couldn't believe he was going to overcome the trip, four wide on both turns, and then he made that bid, and it looked for a second like he might hang, and then he went the other way and he exploded. Just an awesome move. Ultra-impressive."

Carulli said he couldn't say for sure how low he would set Big Brown's odds, but they're going to be low.

"He's the obvious favorite; it's just a question of how low do you go," he said. "We don't know the caliber of horses he beat. We may not figure that out for a couple of months. You see [Holy Bull Stakes winner] Hey Byrn show up for the Preakness with good credentials, but the one time he got drilled was by Big Brown. And I don't think Kent has asked him for his best yet."

Trainer Richard Dutrow made bold predictions about Big Brown in the week before the Kentucky Derby, and they came true. Desormeaux, a Hall of Fame rider, who has won the Derby three times, said Big Brown was the best horse he had ever been on, and that was before they had even gotten to Churchill Downs.

Friedman isn't ready just yet to put Big Brown in the pantheon of immortals, not after four races.

"The problem is, he hasn't done enough running yet to decide whether he is among the great horses," he said. "He hasn't done anything more than [2001 Kentucky Derby winner] Monarchos did. He ran about the same Derby that Monarchos ran, and his races before were very similar to those Monarchos ran before the Derby, and after the Derby, Monarchos went back and was never heard from again. He never did anything the rest of his life."

Trainer Carl Nafzger, who won the Derby last year with Street Sense and was recently elected to the Hall of Fame, laughs at the idea of attempting to put Big Brown into historical context so soon.

"You can't judge a horse by history or anything," Nafzger said. "A horse is an individual animal with individual characteristics. Everybody tries to put all these things into human reasoning, and it don't work. I didn't pick Big Brown [in the Derby] because of the same reasons you all didn't pick him. Now the tests will start on him, but he's done every test so far."