Swine Flu Campaign Waits on Vaccine
Only Third of Supply Is Expected for First Round of Vast Effort
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Government health officials are mobilizing to launch a massive swine flu vaccination campaign this fall that is unprecedented in its scope -- and in the potential for complications.
The campaign aims to vaccinate at least half the country's population within months. Although more people have been inoculated against diseases such as smallpox and polio over a period of years, the United States has never tried to immunize so many so quickly.
But even as scientists rush to test the vaccine to ensure it is safe and effective, the campaign is lagging. Officials say only about a third as much vaccine as they had been expecting by mid-October is likely to arrive by then, when a new wave of infections could be peaking.
Among the unknowns: how many shots people will need, what the correct dosage should be, and how to avoid confusing the public with an overlapping effort to combat the regular seasonal flu.
To prepare, more than 2,800 local health departments have begun recruiting pediatricians, obstetricians, nurses, pharmacists, paramedics and even dentists, along with a small army of volunteers from churches and other groups. They are devising strategies to reach children, teenagers, pregnant women and young and middle-aged adults in inner cities, suburban enclaves and the countryside.
"This is potentially the largest mass-vaccination program in human history," said Howard Markel, a professor of medical history at the University of Michigan who is advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as it spearheads the effort.
Public health officials describe the effort as crucial to defend against the second wave of the Northern Hemisphere's first influenza pandemic in 41 years.
As schools reopen, the number of cases could jump sharply within weeks, sparking a second wave potentially far larger than the outbreak last spring. Although the swine flu appears no more dangerous than the typical seasonal flu, the new virus -- known as H1N1 -- is likely to infect many more people because most have no immunity against it.
The vaccine effort carries political risks for the Obama administration. "If the outbreak fizzles, they will be susceptible to being criticized for spending billions of dollars," said Harvey V. Fineberg, president of the National Academy of Sciences' Institute of Medicine, which advises Congress about medical issues. "On the other hand, if this outbreak is early and severe and there isn't enough vaccine, they'll be criticized for under-preparation."
Officials stress that they are proceeding cautiously. A final decision to move forward will not be made until they get the results of clinical trials -- testing to determine safety and dosing -- and assess the virus's threat. But officials are confident the vaccine will pass muster and expect a campaign will be launched as soon as manufacturers deliver the first vials.
"There's little doubt we're going to vaccinate people," said Anthony S. Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who is leading the government's testing of the vaccine. "Who and when and exactly how -- we have to figure out."
The campaign is haunted by memories of the government's ill-fated 1976 effort to vaccinate against swine flu. The epidemic fizzled, but the vaccine was given to 40 million people and blamed for causing a rare paralyzing disorder known as Guillain-Barré Syndrome.