How Pelosi's decision could hamper Obama
Friday, November 5, 2010; 7:45 PM
Pelosi stunned many Democrats on Friday with the announcement that she will run for leader of the new Democratic minority in the House. If her colleagues and the smart money in Washington thought she would retreat and resign after the Democrats' 60-seat loss Tuesday, Pelosi reminded them that she didn't become the first female speaker in history through timidity.
The question is whether she has significantly complicated life for Obama as he prepares to deal with the Republican majority in the House and Senate Republicans led by someone who spent the week hurling thunderbolts at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. From outside reports, the White House was conflicted about whether it wanted her to stay or go, torn between loyalty to the speaker for all she did during the past two years and its own political needs in the wake of Tuesday's loss.
Pelosi will be a symbol of resistance and liberal opposition to the Republicans. If Obama wants a House leader who will help draw bright lines of distinction with the new House majority, Pelosi may be exactly the right person to lead House Democrats. If he wants more room to maneuver, to make deals with Republicans as well as confront them, she may not be at all what he wants.
Memories are short in Washington, which is why there was such widespread expectation that Pelosi would resign. Former Republican speaker Newt Gingrich stepped down days after his party's embarrassing performance in the 1998 midterms (though the party did not lose its majority). Former Republican speaker J. Dennis Hastert decided not to seek a leadership position after his party lost the majority four years ago, and later quit Congress entirely.
For Pelosi, who may have looked farther back in the history books, the role model may be Sam Rayburn, the legendary Democratic speaker from Texas. Rayburn's party lost its majority in the 1946 midterms but he stayed on, running successfully for minority leader - although he never liked the term.
Rayburn's persistence was rewarded when Harry S. Truman's 1948 campaign against the "do-nothing" 80th Congress not only resulted in the president's unexpected victory but the election of a Democratic majority in the House to boot.
Pelosi may not believe House Democrats will return to the majority that quickly, but she sounds determined to defend what has happened on her watch.
If Rayburn was one of the strongest speakers in history, Pelosi is the strongest of modern times. Fighting the kind of prejudice that all women in politics face, she emerged as a shrewd, savvy and, above all, tough-minded speaker. Under her leadership, the House passed historic legislation and accumulated a record of significant productivity. Without her political skills, Obama would not be able to count health care as one of his achievements.
The other side of the story is that Pelosi became as polarizing a figure as there was in Washington - much more than Obama. The health-care law has divided the country and come to symbolize Democratic overreach. She pushed House Democrats to pass the cap-and-trade energy bill and many paid the price for it.
By Election Day, her image was upside down, with 29 percent viewing her favorably and 58 percent unfavorably. Only among liberal Democrats did her image hold up during the four years she has been speaker. Among all other groups - Republicans, independents, moderate and conservative Democrats - her numbers declined.
Republicans made Pelosi their favorite target in campaign commercials this fall, and Democrats who used her did so to make the point that they would keep their distance and independence if the voters rewarded them with another term. Most of them lost anyway.