Leading and Coincident Indices Washington, D.C., Metro Area Updated July 22, 1998

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The coincident and leading indices track the economic health of the Washington Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA). The coincident index is meant to track the cyclical highs and lows of the economy. The leading index is meant to track the condition of the local economy about nine to 12 months from now.

One way to follow the data is through the moving average. If an index is above the moving average, the economy is currently expanding. If the index moves below the average, the economy is constricting. On the leading index, using the same guidelines will help provide insight into the future state of the local economy in the next nine to 12 months.

Data Compiled in the Indices
Coincident Index Initial claims for unemployment insurance; Consumer confidence in the future (expectations); Residential building permits; The help-wanted index (an index of the number of employment recruitment advertisements in local newspapers); Durable goods retail sales.		Leading Index Total wage and salary employment; Domestic airline passenger boardings; Consumer confidence in the present situation; Nondurable goods retail sales.

Complete historical data on the local economy from 1978 to the present also is available. All data in this area is provided by Economic Reporter Online.

Washington MSA Leading Index

Date	1/93	2/93	3/93	4/93	5/93	6/93	7/93	8/93	9/93	10/93	11/93	12/93
Index	96.1	95.2	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.2	95.0	95.1	96.0	95.2	96.1	97.0
Average	94.9	95.1	95.1	95.1	95.1	95.1	95.1	95.2	95.3	95.3	95.4	95.5
Date	1/94	2/94	3/94	4/94	5/94	6/94	7/94	8/94	9/94	10/94	11/94	12/94
Index	96.7	96.8	96.8	97.3	96.7	96.4	96.2	96.9	95.8	97.2	96.9	97.2
Average	95.6	95.7	95.9	96.1	96.1	96.2	96.3	96.5	96.5	96.6	96.7	96.7
Date	1/95	2/95	3/95	4/95	5/95	6/95	7/95	8/95	9/95	10/95	11/95	12/95
Index	96.0	96.5	97.2	96.7	96.5	96.3	96.4	97.0	96.2	96.9	96.4	95.7
Average	96.7	96.6	96.7	96.6	96.6	96.6	96.6	96.6	96.7	96.6	96.7	96.7
Date	1/96	2/96	3/96	4/96	5/96	6/96	7/96	8/96	9/96	10/96	11/96	12/96
Index	95.6	96.3	95.3	96.9	97.5	97.6	96.9	97.2	97.2	98.2	98.0	97.8
Average	96.5	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.4	96.5	96.6	96.6	96.7	96.8	96.9	97.1
Date	1/97	2/97	3/97	4/97	5/97	6/97	7/97	8/97	9/97	10/97	11/97	12/97
Index	98.7	97.9	97.9	98.0	98.9	98.9	97.5	98.4	98.4	98.8	99.0	100.1
Average	97.3	97.4	97.7	97.7	97.8	97.9	98.0	98.1	98.2	98.3	98.1	98.3
Date	1/98	2/98	3/98	4/98	5/98*	6/98	7/98	8/98	9/98	10/98	11/98	12/98
Index	99.2	99.3	99.4	99.6	100.1
Average	98.5	98.6	98.8	98.9	99.0

* Preliminary figures. The number will be revised in the next month.
Source: Economic Reporter Online

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Washington MSA Coincident Index

Date	1/93	2/93	3/93	4/93	5/93	6/93	7/93	8/93	9/93	10/93	11/93	12/93
Index	99.1	99.2	99.0	100.0	100.0	100.3	100.7	99.9	101.0	101.2	102.1	101.7
Average	98.2	98.3	98.5	98.8	98.9	99.1	99.3	99.4	99.6	99.8	100.1	100.3
Date	1/94	2/94	3/94	4/94	5/94	6/94	7/94	8/94	9/94	10/94	11/94	12/94
Index	100.2	100.6	102.1	102.5	102.8	102.8	103.0	102.4	103.0	103.1	103.8	103.6
Average	100.4	100.6	100.8	101.0	101.3	101.5	101.7	101.9	102.0	102.2	102.3	102.5
Date	1/95	2/95	3/95	4/95	5/95	6/95	7/95	8/95	9/95	10/95	11/95	12/95
Index	102.5	102.3	103.9	103.4	103.4	103.8	103.3	102.7	103.4	103.3	104.1	103.4
Average	102.7	102.8	103.0	103.0	103.1	103.2	103.2	103.2	103.3	103.3	103.3	103.3
Date	1/96	2/96	3/96	4/96	5/96	6/96	7/96	8/96	9/96	10/96	11/96	12/96
Index	100.1	103.1	102.9	103.1	104.1	104.0	103.6	104.0	103.4	104.2	104.9	104.5
Average	103.1	103.1	103.1	103.0	103.1	103.1	103.1	103.2	103.3	103.3	103.4	103.5
Date	1/97	2/97	3/97	4/97	5/97	6/97	7/97	8/97	9/97	10/97	11/97	12/97
Index	103.9	104.2	105.1	104.7	105.3	105.4	106.2	106.0	106.2	106.9	106.5	106.2
Average	103.8	103.9	104.1	104.2	104.3	104.4	104.7	104.9	105.1	105.3	106.2	106.3
Date	1/98	2/98	3/98	4/98	5/98*	6/98	7/98	8/98	9/98	10/98	11/98	12/98
Index	105.2	106.4	107.1	107.6	107.4
Average	105.8	106.0	106.2	106.4	106.6

* Preliminary figures. The number will be revised in the next month.
Source: Economic Reporter Online

Full Data, January 1978 to Present

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