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Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

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Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 1:45 PM EDT

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Eugene_Robinson

First post: 5/23/2007
Last post: 7/24/2009
Total posts: 79

The over-the-moon reaction by conservative commentators and activists to Sarah Palin's debate performance puzzled me -- until I came up with a hypothesis to explain the phenomenon. Tell me if you think I'm right or wrong: For "movement" conservatives, the vice-presidential debate was less about 2008 than about 2012 and beyond.

Honestly, it was bizarre to hear intelligent, informed conservatives sing rhapsodies over a performance that was long on spunk but woefully short on substance. When Palin tried to answer Gwen Ifill's questions, as she did on the financial bailout, she got lost in the weeds. So she basically ignored the questions and retreated to her talking points -- embellished with enough mugging, eye-rolling, winking, smirking and all-around folksiness to choke a mule, or a moose. One candidate on that stage clearly had command of the great issues of our time. One didn't.

Palin did well, though, when the subject turned to energy. I didn't agree with her "Drill, baby, drill!" prescription for energy independence, because I think it can't possible work, but she did come across as if she knew what she was talking about.

It's not that conservatives heard a different debate. It's that they were focused on a different election cycle. The conservative movement is looking for its next Ronald Reagan -- its next charismatic leader with game-changing communication skills, bedrock conservative principles and, well, barracuda-like political instincts. Some on the right believe they may have found that leader in Palin. Smart conservative political analysts aren't under the illusion that Palin can turn this election around; only John McCain can do that, if he can figure out how. But remember that the "movement" conservatives' embrace of McCain is based on pragmatism, not passion. He's just not their guy.

Palin, they suspect, may be their gal. She wowed them in Minneapolis -- but then faltered so badly in her interviews with Katie Couric that conservatives wondered if she really had the right stuff. Thursday night, they liked what they saw. Especially heartening for them, I think, was the fact that while she didn't know beans about most of the issues, her facility and comfort talking about energy suggests that when she has time to get familiar with other issues she'll learn them too.

Under my scenario, for ideological conservatives it will be a pity if McCain loses to Barack Obama but not a disaster. If that happens, I can pretty much guarantee that Sarah Palin will be back four years from now. Somewhere, the "Palin 2012" bumper stickers are probably already being printed.

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Re: Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 2:33 PM EDT

risenmessiah

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 1

Close, but not quite I think.

It's more that movement conservatives (and most Republicans) are simply eager to see some fresh blood. They see the sway Obama has with young people and they hear people like Bill Maher joke that among younger voters there are as many atheists as Republicans.

So it's no surprise that after eight years of Bush, there's a desire to show the world that the GOP also has a deep bench of fresh faces ready to take on the future...as opposed to a bunch of nearly dead white guys recycling the same old mantras.

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Re: Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 2:37 PM EDT

msbulldog

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 1

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In 4 more years..

posted at 10/3/2008 3:04 PM EDT

pablo1

First post: 11/9/2007
Last post: 4/16/2009
Total posts: 5

I think it will be down to Romney, Palin, and Gingrich. I think Gingrich was behind the House voting against the first bailout vote. Strictly behind the scene, (I think Pelosi thought she had the votes, but 12 of them were Trojan horses).
In 2012 I wouldn't be shocked with a Gingrich/Palin ticket. Sounds like a losing one though.
The real fly in the ointment though, there is a good chance that Palin will be facing impeachment charges in Alaska after November, the Alaskans are not happy that the RNC has taken over the state in Palin's absence.

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Palin 2012

posted at 10/3/2008 3:05 PM EDT

jrubin1

First post: 2/16/2008
Last post: 10/9/2009
Total posts: 100

I don't think so. Last night was only talking points from the GOP convention and some simple down home poor "Prairie Home Companion".

Some may find her folksy ways as a bright light in these dark times, but one the brightness comes back, she is just another Tina Fey in politics.

Her intelligence, broad complex thinking, would never emerge from the cold tundra of Alaska.

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Re: Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 3:09 PM EDT

bjalexa

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 1

Yes, in theory I think you're right but I don't think it will play out that way.

Starting with Ronald Reagan, the Republican Party started to value personality over substance -- increasing more with each passing election cycle. Yet, they don't seem to understand what that has done. They still can't tie Dubya's abysmal performance as a president to the complete and total lack of intellectual heft he has shown throughout his adult life. It seems they have become the party that relies on caricature, not only for their candidates but as the defining tool for Democratic candidates as well. What ever happened to the value we one placed on intellect and knowledge -- the very things one needs to play ball in major league diplomacy and government? Have we dumbed down so far that we no longer expect our highest government officials to have an understanding of what has gone on before them? Historical reference is now unnecessary?

I don't think the stars have aligned correctly for Palin. She has a report coming out a week from today that is likely to be harsh. She is early enough in her time as governor that she can claim the title and yet slip out from any of the murk. I think those days might be numbered. She may have fooled 40 percent of the electorate "outside" but she hasn't fooled everyone in Alaska.

I think this is Sarah's moment in the sun. Four years is too long for her to go without a scandal in Alaska. She doesn't have the stellar record there that many people believe she has. Once the knowledge of that starts filtering through, I doubt her popularity will ever be as high as it was the day she shuffled those pumps across the stage in Saint Paul and we heard our first Palin lie.

Perhaps the Republicans think they can hope for 2012. I keep waiting for the real Republicans to realize their party has been hijacked by a proudly xenophobic frat house with a miniscule attention span, a scorn for higher education and some kind of attachment to killing stuff. That may be the 3rd party in our future. Real Republicans. If that's the case, Palin is not their candidate in 2012.

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Palin 2012

posted at 10/3/2008 3:10 PM EDT

acestaro

First post: 8/12/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 4

Interesting theory, but I'm reminded of the Right's embrace of Dan Quayle in 1988 along much the same lines. The electorate never saw sufficient gravitas in him, nor do I think they ever will in her.

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Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 3:17 PM EDT

robin1

First post: 7/22/2008
Last post: 12/8/2008
Total posts: 11

The frenzied cheers for Palin, by conservative commentators tells me one thing--we weren't the only ones who knew the emperor had no clothes, but they were the ones who were worried about their own skins.

Palin's Couric interview was so bad that it should have created a crisis of conscience for a thinking conservative commentator. The problem was not what Palin thought--it was whether she thought at all. But what if you have been hired to be a CONSERVATIVE commentator? What if your network might let you go, if you are no longer presenting a clear message? And what about your fans? Will they be willing to admit that your VP candidate is an ignoramous? George Will and Charles Kruthammer have the stature to say what they want. But Kathleen Parker told us in this newspaper what happens when a lesser columnist dares to point out that the VP candidate seems not to have read a thing in the past ...ah.44 years.

These commentators are RELIEVED. They are so relieved that they don't seem to have noticed that Palin lost the debate. And they don't really care. They will keep their jobs in the Obama administration. It will be easier than having to defend Palin.

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Palin's Future

posted at 10/3/2008 3:25 PM EDT

GenuineRisk

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 3/17/2009
Total posts: 5

Palin first has to get through the Troopergate mess in Alaska. Folks there are calling for her impeachment, which would bring her career to a screetching halt.

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Palin: the real deal?

posted at 10/3/2008 3:34 PM EDT

stickbook

First post: 7/22/2008
Last post: 10/8/2008
Total posts: 6

I'm inclined to concur with previous posters in that I would be surprised if the Rs embraced Palin as their champion for 2012.

To be forthright, I'm a staunch Dem, predisposed towards being over-critical of the other guy's candidate. However, I can't shake the sense I'm getting from Palin that she's a lightweight.

Four years ago, when Obama burst onto the scene with the keynote address at the Democratic convention (and sufficiently upstaging Candidate Kerry) he had the arresting gravitas of someone who was, for lack of a better phrase, "the real deal". I'm too young to have been cognizant of Reagan's entry onto the national stage, but my understanding is that he had the same impact.

It seems to me that most voters -- however partisan, uninformed, or otherwise -- can sense this. Which leads me to believe that if Sarah Palin exhibited such gravitas, the voters would have responded with more positive feedback than they have so far. She can please the right, but not the middle. And, to counter to Rovianism, that's where elections are really won.

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The Republicans Can Do Better, and They Know It

posted at 10/3/2008 3:38 PM EDT

steveqdr

First post: 3/27/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 2

Registered Republican here, but not part of the Bush/Cheney fan club, and will be voting for Obama. As for Palin 2012, not a chance. The Republicans can do much, much better, and if they have any brains, they will know it. Their best bet: Current Defense Secretary Gates. Of course, of Obama wins (likely) and keeps Gates as SecDef, that would rule out a Gates run. Still, there have to be other Republicans who can reasonably satisfy the (regrettably) dominant fundamentalist Christian base of the Republican party, and who are also actually qualified to lead the country.

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Interesting Theory

posted at 10/3/2008 3:50 PM EDT

dbitt

First post: 5/25/2007
Last post: 7/29/2009
Total posts: 27

I have to agree with some of the posters above. Palin may seem to have all the right ingredients, but she'll have to get through the next few years despite a governing style not too unlike that of W's. That leads me to believe she'll have her share of scandal and infamy to get past-- but if she survives it, she may be the kind of raw material the right can shape into their candidate for 2012.

Ultimately, I suspect it's more about building a deeper bench of young, charismatic Republicans.

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Re: Palin's Progress... Toward 2012?

posted at 10/3/2008 3:50 PM EDT

GenRochelle

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 1

I don't think Palin will be the nominee in 2012. She's got spunk, I agree. But there are GOP party members with more substance who will probably emerge instead.

I think that Mitt Romney will re-group and learn from his mistakes in '07 and '08. He has the money, the command of the issues, and the hair (ha ha ha) to be "the guy" in 2012. If not Romney, then I think Bobby Jindal could be the GOP's Obama... And I've continually been impressed with Mike Huckabee's personality, rationalism and connectability. And I'm a Democrat!

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Hillman

posted at 10/3/2008 3:52 PM EDT

HillMan

First post: 9/18/2007
Last post: 4/9/2009
Total posts: 126

There's simply no way that Palin can be a contender in 2012.

Why? Down deep she's sortof mean. Her sneer and condescension has been billed, so far, as being 'tough for a woman'. It played great for the conservative base at the convention, but it turned moderates off.

And that sort of thing doesn't play well for long. At first it's invigorating, whether you like it or not. But after a while it becomes grating.

And by 2012 she will have had to take actual policy positions. And those positions will be at odds with what most Americans want.

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Does it matter?

posted at 10/3/2008 3:53 PM EDT

sgr_astar

First post: 4/30/2008
Last post: 10/23/2008
Total posts: 14

I don't know where all the prejudice came from. One thing is for sure: if you put Mr Robinson to a debate, a democratic party melt down is inevitable.

As to Gov Palin, she just plays her role as a humble VP instead of someone who want to advice the president on foreign policy. Arrogance come hand-in-hand with ignorance, that applies perfectly with Biden and Obama. But that does not mean these two are not qualified for the white house. If I were hiring, I would tell the two: you are over qualified! Go teaching, you bombastic fool.

I don't know how much McCain or Palin are so deeply involved in the housing problem, but we all know Obama and Biden got plenty from Fannie and Freddie. McCain has pointed out the problems with the lending practice years ago, and he was the only one who blew whistle on it, but no one listened.

After all, it is not how much books you wrote about yourself, but how much spine you have in your body, and how much truth you can handle. None of the democrats have a spine, that's for sure, neither does Mr Robinson.

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Oh, absolutely

posted at 10/3/2008 3:55 PM EDT

martymar123

First post: 8/23/2008
Last post: 7/22/2009
Total posts: 8

Oh, absolutely. If McCain loses, the rule of Barack The Terrible Liberal will usher in a new and oppressive era of semi-rational thought, with awful Times and New Yorker-reading people coming out of the woodwork and speaking openly and speaking in complete sentences, causing the world around us to actually start making sense again.

Sure, after someone else has started to fix the problems, she will be ready to come tear it back down again, because that is what people like her are best at. Doggone it!

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2012 - Gotta Be Kidding

posted at 10/3/2008 4:05 PM EDT

Seeing_Clear

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 10/3/2008
Total posts: 1

Not once have I heard an intelligable conersation from Palin. Admittedly, she pulled it off last night in the debate, but ask her something she's not been spoonfed, she's just another empty shell (G.W. Anyone?). Last time we heard someone talk like this, the country swirled down the toilet for 8 years. Lets be honest...we want, if not need, people smarter than us that are clearly intellectual in thought to be capeable of handling critical issues. We don't need "folksy, joe-six-pack" people to make the toughest decisions ......IN THE WORLD.

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What about Jeb?

posted at 10/3/2008 4:07 PM EDT

Garak

First post: 8/29/2007
Last post: 11/23/2009
Total posts: 102

Jeb Bush might well be able to take the 2012 nomination (assuming McCain loses). Jeb can do something Palin might not: unify the religious right and big money wings of the GOP. Yes, Palin kept the baby. But Jeb went to the mat on Teri Schiavo, and used state funds to fund right-wing religious groups. And Jeb has a proven track record of cutting taxes for CEOs. The first tax "reform" Jeb rammed through in Florida was to abolish the intangibles tax, a property tax on stocks and bonds. Jeb also has every real estate developer in Florida in his pocket by gutting land use and environmental laws.

Jeb has as much credibility with the religous right as Palin, and a lot more with the big money people. He is far more articulate than Palin, and is fluent in Spanish. Jeb could make a real play for the Hispanic vote. If he wants it--and some say his wife has forced him to promise to stay out of politics--I don't see how Palin could stop him.

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Palin... the next Gipper?

posted at 10/3/2008 4:09 PM EDT

repubsux

First post: 10/3/2008
Last post: 9/15/2009
Total posts: 5

If I was a Republican, I'd slit my wrist at the idea! This is how low they have sunk? Of all the "thinkers" and "mavericks" in that party, you really think they will put up Palin in 2012 because she could memorize and regurgitate a few canned party lines in 2008? Can they really think that little of the electorate? Why... of course!

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Re: Palin... the next Gipper?

posted at 10/3/2008 4:28 PM EDT

martymar123

First post: 8/23/2008
Last post: 7/22/2009
Total posts: 8

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