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U.S. Faces Period of Uncertainty in Beijing Relations

The death of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping formally marks the beginning of a period of huge uncertainty about the shape and direction of U.S.-Chinese relations, with little indication now whether China will move toward greater cooperation or fresh confrontation with the West, senior U.S. officials said yesterday.

At one end of a range of possibilities being studied by U.S. government experts, China could emerge over the next decade or so as a much more powerful and assertive player on the international stage, and over a longer period, as a potential military rival of the United States and a direct competitor for access to scarce resources.

At the other end of this range, China could choose a path of cooperation with the United States and agree to adhere to rules of behavior regarding international trade, exports of dangerous goods, and respect for human rights that long have been prevalent in the West. Still another possibility is that China might pick a middle course that will keep the two nations from becoming either enemies or partners.

"There is a lot of uncertainty about what [Deng's death] . . . means," except that it will almost certainly accelerate somewhat a process of slow transition in China to a stronger leadership with clearer goals, said one U.S. official responsible for policymaking on China.

"In practical terms, in the short run, there are no consequences," because the ailing Deng had not played a major role in Chinese decision-making for the past few years, the official said. At the same time, he added, it is clear that "a major figure has now passed from the scene," formally leaving the door ajar in China for possible debate about some of the policies that provoked tension with the United States.

"We have no firm sense of the long-term direction," the official added, "but no reason to believe instability inside China" or in U.S.-Chinese relations looms on the immediate horizon.

Deng was regarded by many U.S. officials as a leader who attached great importance to good relations with Washington even as he maintained repressive political policies -- such as a harsh crackdown on internal dissent, including the brutal slayings of protesters at Tiananmen Square in 1989 -- that frequently strained U.S. ties.

For much of the President Clinton's first term, as Deng's illness caused him to fade from influence in favor of a clique of technocrats and military officials that now rules by consensus, U.S. officials had few hopes of forging much closer relations or having substantial impact on China's behavior.

Washington was not able, for example, to make much headway with Beijing in a series of high-profile disputes over China's pirating of U.S. technology, repression of human rights, sale of sensitive nuclear gear to Pakistan, and military intimidation of Taiwan. Recently tensions between Washington and Beijing have eased somewhat. But the underlying disagreements remain, as do the Chinese leaders who clashed with Washington, according to current and former U.S. officials.

President and Communist Party leader Jiang Zemin is "first among equals . . . in a collective leadership that is pretty well established," Winston Lord, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said during President Clinton's first term. He added that while the immediate succession of power is "pretty well established . . . it would be foolhardy to predict" which direction the country might take when a newer generation of leaders comes to power over the next decade.

Lord said China already is in a "very difficult mood" and that during the transition to new leadership the country may exhibit "a combination of growing nationalism and wariness and inflexibility . . . [including] suspicion of the United States." But he added that Jiang "has a stake in showing he can manage relations" with Washington smoothly, and said that the administration had already done much to prevent serious damage by starting a more intensive, high-level dialogue with Beijing last year.

"It would obviously be a great advantage for China as well as all of us if there were a smooth transition," Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright said in London yesterday. "We very much want to have a multifaceted relationship" in which Beijing can cooperate with the United States on nuclear nonproliferation and policies toward Vietnam and Cambodia, even while the two nations differ on matters such as trade and human rights.

Deng's death has raised some questions about whether Albright will be able to make a planned visit to China on Monday for consultations with senior officials there. Presidential national security adviser Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger told CNN that there is "no reason at this time to expect any change," but that Washington was still consulting with Beijing.

According to several officials, Washington's overall view of the dilemma that China faces in coming years was perhaps best sketched last July by then-national security adviser Anthony Lake during private meetings in Beijing with Jiang and Liu Huaqiu, the minister in charge of the foreign affairs bureau of China's state council.

Lake said then, according to a classified summary of the conversation, that the Clinton administration is eager to forge closer ties with China and begin laying the groundwork for a 21st century in which the great powers of the world -- such as China and the United States -- work together to find solutions to global problems such as international crime and terrorism and also work out sensible rules to govern international trade, exports of dangerous goods, environmental protection, and other matters of common concern.

But Lake also told the Chinese leaders that there is "an alternate view" of the future, in which the world's great powers become not allies but even sharper rivals for political influence and control over the world's scarce resources, and thus remain mired in a "19th century" approach to international relations. Lake was implicitly referring to the "multipolar" view that he and other senior U.S. officials believe is outmoded but which still grips China's present leadership, said an official who is familiar with the conversation.

"They are in cement on this . . . and did not try to integrate Lake's view into their own thinking," the official said. He added that at least they listened politely.