Albright Says GIs Need to Stay
In Bosnia

Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright yesterday became the first top-level Clinton administration official to state publicly that a U.S. military presence will be needed in Bosnia beyond the June deadline set earlier for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

"A consensus is developing that there will be or should be some form of U.S. military presence post-SFOR," she said, referring to the conclusion next summer of the mandate of the current international force, known as SFOR.

While Albright appeared to be stating only what has become increasingly apparent in recent weeks, her comments caught by surprise some other administration officials who seemed less ready to cross the Rubicon of a new Bosnia commitment.

White House spokesman Michael McCurry said he thought Albright was simply giving an assessment of the sentiments expressed at a White House meeting Tuesday between President Clinton and key members of Congress.

At that session, Clinton said he does not want to sacrifice progress already made in the ethnically divided country by simply pulling out according to an arbitrary timetable, although lawmakers who attended said the president told them he had not reached a decision.

"I don't think it would be fair to say that there is any consensus now," McCurry said yesterday. "I think what was clear at the meeting was that there is the prospect the president could build that consensus with hard work."

Albright's remark came in comments to reporters before a State Department meeting with German vice chancellor Klaus Kinkel.

"I think it's important that people know that the president has not yet made any decision on this subject," she said, "but that yesterday there was a very important meeting with probably about 30 to 35 members of Congress, and that a clear consensus emerged from there that making sure that [the 1995 Dayton peace agreement on Bosnia] is carried out is important for America's national interest. And that there will be, a consensus is developing that there will be or should be some form of U.S. military presence post-SFOR."

Albright was not talking about consensus internationally or on Capitol Hill, but within the administration, a senior State Department official said when asked for clarification.

"Key members of the administration are leaning toward this outcome," the official said. "The discussion now is about what kind of military mission it should be, how many troops, how long they would stay, what their mission should be."

The United States has about 8,000 troops in Bosnia, working with NATO allies and Russian units to enforce the peace agreements that halted Europe's bloodiest conflict in 50 years. European countries that are participating in SFOR, led by Britain, and NATO secretary general Javier Solana, have been lobbying hard for a U.S. commitment to stay in Bosnia beyond June, saying a U.S. withdrawal would prompt the others to pull out as well and probably lead to a resumption of the war.

Albright agrees with them, a senior aide said. He said the past six months have produced significant progress in restoring peace to Bosnia -- "hundreds of thousands of refugees returned, economic activity doubling, police doing their jobs, a quarter of the [accused] war criminals in prison, all the things we wanted to do" -- because of effective cooperation between military and civilian authorities, which Albright wants to continue.

"In principle, a U.S. military presence looks like it's needed and people see that," this official said. "There is a difference between the principle of a U.S. military presence and a specific proposal, and that remains to be decided."

Despite apparent surprise at the Pentagon at what at least one senior official there described as a premature announcement by Albright, defense spokesman Kenneth H. Bacon later affirmed her assessment.

He said Defense Secretary William S. Cohen -- who argued when he took office in January that continued deployment would be neither advisable nor politically sustainable -- now agreed on the need for some kind of continued U.S. military presence in Bosnia.

After discussions with European counterparts, and his own sense that progress is being made in Bosnia, Cohen has "come to see we'd lose more [by pulling out next year] than we would gain," Bacon said.

Having failed to meet either of two previously set withdrawal deadlines, administration officials generally are skeptical about fixing yet another one. At the same time, Pentagon planners fearful of an open-ended commitment are looking at ways of establishing specific milestones for a follow-on force that, once met, would trigger the withdrawal of U.S. troops.