A Movement Slowly Heats Up
In the 1970s, revelations about rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere prompted a new interest in global warming among scientists and environmentalists. Since then, several significant developments and events have led up to next month's climate conference in Kyoto, Japan.
1988
The United Nations and World Meteorological Organization appoint a group of international scientists -- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- to investigate global warming.
1990
The first IPCC report forecasts a doubling of carbon dioxide levels and predicts an increase in temperatures of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius over 100 years. The report warns of a possible rise in the sea level as well as extreme floods and droughts that could threaten food and water supplies.
1992
Nations gather in Rio de Janeiro for the first Earth Summit and agree to set goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change rejects mandatory cuts and calls for nations to voluntarily reduce pollution to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
1993
President Clinton, in an Earth Day speech, embraces the goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions as promised in Rio. But it soon becomes clear that the United States, like many other industrialized countries, will fall far short of the mark. Economic growth, consumer apathy and cheap gasoline prices cause U.S. emissions to rise sharply.
1995
A second IPCC report concludes that global warming has already begun -- and humans appear to be at least partly to blame. The 2,000 scientists predict a wide range of environmental and health effects unless aggressive steps are taken to reduce heat-trapping gases.
1996
More than 120 nations meet in Geneva to endorse the IPCC report and to call for accelerated talks on a legally binding treaty on cutting greenhouse gases. Four more rounds of negotiations are held in Geneva and Bonn, Germany, over the following year.
1997
June: A second U.N. Earth Summit in New York fails to produce additional commitments on climate change. Clinton, in a speech, acknowledges the seriousness of the problem but refuses to accept a European Union proposal for aggressive cuts in heat-trapping gases. The EU calls for reducing emissions to 15 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2010, with trade sanctions and other penalties against countries that fail to comply.
Oct. 6: Japan proposes a more cautious plan that would roll back emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. European governments are critical of the proposal, but the United States voices cautious support.
Oct. 21: A group of 77 developing countries offers an aggressive proposal that seeks even deeper cuts from industrialized nations. Their plan would limit emissions at 35 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 -- restrictions that would not apply in their own countries.
Oct. 22: Clinton outlines the U.S. position on global warming, calling for relatively modest but legally binding cuts in pollution as well as incentives and tax breaks to encourage companies to reduce emissions early. The administration seeks to cap pollution at 1990 levels by 2012, with further, unspecified cuts to follow. Clinton insists that developing countries play a significant role in fighting global warming, a position opposed by many European and Third World governments.
Dec. 1-10: Diplomats to meet in Kyoto in hopes of signing the world's first international accord setting mandatory limits on greenhouse gases.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company
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