By Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, June 11, 1999; Page A16

JAKARTA, Indonesia, June 10—Vote counting from Indonesia's first free election in 44 years continued at an excruciatingly slow pace today. But enough clear trends have emerged, from the small number of returns and from the projections of independent monitors, that political party officials and analysts were shifting their attention to the next phase of the complex process -- forming the coalitions that will select the nation's next president.

What is apparent is that the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, will emerge as the dominant party in the new parliament, capturing between 35 and 40 percent of the vote. Golkar, the ruling party of the discredited Suharto government, appears to be heading for second place, with about 20 percent.

The Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP), considered a likely Golkar ally, could come in third place, with about 15 percent of the vote. And a conservative Muslim party, the National Awakening Party, led by Abdurrahman Wahid, should emerge a close fourth. The National Awakening Party joined in a preelection coalition with PDI-P, and Wahid is considered a likely governing partner for Sukarnoputri.

The showing by Sukarnoputri's party appears much better than expected; many analysts said before the balloting Monday that PDI-P would emerge with only one-third of the votes. Now it appears that the pro-reform parties, if they can stay united, will hold a solid majority in the legislature and can claim to represent the popular will for change. And with at least 15 percentage points' difference between PDI-P and Golkar, Sukarnoputri can also claim that a Golkar-led coalition would not enjoy popular legitimacy.

Sukarnoputri's aides are already claiming the mandate. "What we want to see is a big margin between us and Golkar," said Laksamana Sukardi, the PDI-P treasurer and a top Sukarnoputri adviser. "A big margin will mean smooth sailing."

But Golkar is also expected to try to retain power -- and to keep the incumbent, B.J. Habibie, in the presidential palace -- by cobbling together a minority parliamentary coalition and then relying on the votes of appointed members and the military.

"I think we can form a coalition with any party we feel has the same platform and which is willing to have President Habibie as president," said Golkar treasurer Fadel Muhammad.

Mathematically, Golkar could pull it off. Golkar and PDI-P will take most of the parliamentary seats, but the rest will be divided among smaller parties, some of them Islam-based and more comfortable with Habibie than Sukarnoputri, a woman, as president.

Later this summer, the parliament will be joined by 200 additional people -- 135 provincial politicians, and 65 appointed representatives of "functional groups," such as veterans and students -- to form a 700-member super-body that will select the next president.

Pro-reform groups fear that Golkar, with its huge bank accounts, could try to buy off the provincial and "functional group" representatives and enable Habibie to stay in power.

But given the popularity of Sukarnoputri's party and the pro-reform forces, analysts say Habibie could be reappointed but unable to govern the country. "In terms of political legitimacy, there's no grounds for it," said Wimar Witoelar, a political commentator.

In many other countries, a leader who presided over a party that could win only 20 percent of the popular vote nationally might resign on principle, or at least not seek reelection. But Witoelar said, "If Habibie was the kind to read the mood of the people, he wouldn't have hung around this long."

Others here predicted that if Habibie tried to maneuver his way back into power with his party winning just 20 percent or so of the popular vote, there could be a return to the kind of street protests that last year toppled Suharto. "It's a formula for violence," said a longtime foreign observer of Indonesian affairs who was working as an election monitor.

For Sukarnoputri to emerge the winner now requires two things, according to her allies, independent commentators and foreign analysts.

First, she needs to cement the sometimes shaky coalition with Wahid and the National Awakening Party, and enlist the other major pro-reform party, the newly formed National Mandate Party, led by the charismatic Muslim scholar Amien Rais.

The second thing is to move forcefully to claim her apparent mandate -- something her advisers say she is prepared to do as soon as the official counting is complete.

If the two competing coalitions are close in the actual vote count -- Sukarnoputri leading one group, and Habibie at the top of the other -- a key role could then fall to the armed forces, which have 38 appointed seats in the 500-member parliament, and could have more if military men are named as some of the provincial representatives.

It is unclear which way the armed forces might go under such a scenario. But many analysts point out that military commanders are comfortable with Sukarnoputri.

Final returns are not expected for several more days.