By Kelly Couturier
Special to The Washington Post
Wednesday, February 18, 1998; Page A15

INCIRLIK AIR BASE, Turkey, Feb. 17—U.S. F-16 pilot Rick Mattson gave the thumbs-up sign as he taxied his fighter jet to a halt after a five-hour patrol over northern Iraq.

Mattson, a major in the Michigan Air National Guard, is part of a fighter squadron that arrived at this southern Turkish air base earlier this month to take part in Operation Northern Watch, a 45-plane U.S., British and Turkish air patrol that is designed to prevent Iraqi aircraft from flying over an allied-declared region of the country populated largely by separatist Kurds.

According to the pilots, crewmen and commanders of the 1,400-member Northern Watch contingent, it is business as usual at Incirlik, NATO's southernmost air power staging point, despite the possibility that U.S. forces may soon be launching airstrikes against Iraq.

The usual array of fighter jets, air tankers, surveillance planes and radar-jamming aircraft flew over northern Iraq from Incirlik today, according to base spokesmen, with the mandate of keeping Iraqi warplanes from flying above the 36th parallel and monitoring the activity of two Iraqi army corps in the region.

But as the crisis over U.N. inspections of suspected Iraqi weapons sites has accelerated and the U.S. threat to use force against Baghdad looms larger, U.S. airmen interviewed here said they are prepared for the possibility that they may be involved in raids on Iraq.

U.S. officials, aware of Turkish reluctance to participate in such an operation, said they have not asked Turkey to permit airstrikes from Incirlik, which allied forces used to launch thousands of sorties against Iraq during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. A senior U.S. official in Ankara reiterated recently that "Turkey is not in the hot seat."

The Turkish government signaled early in the latest gulf crisis that its reluctance stems from concern that its participation could damage Ankara's relations with its southern neighbor and other Arab states.

Turkey, a NATO ally, joined the U.S.-led Gulf War coalition against Iraq in 1991 but has complained bitterly that it has paid a heavy price in the aftermath. Turkish leaders say the nation has lost billions of dollars in oil-trade revenues as a result of U.N. sanctions imposed on Iraq, a major Turkish trading partner before the war.

Moreover, Turkish civilian and military leaders complain that allied protection of the Iraqi Kurdish enclave has hindered the Ankara government's 14-year war against its own Kurdish separatists, who have used northern Iraq as a haven from which to launch attacks into Turkey. Ankara has spent billions of dollars to fight the insurgency, which has tied down 150,000 Turkish troops.

A lingering Turkish suspicion, most recently voiced by Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, that the United States aims to partition Iraq by fostering creation of an independent Kurdish state in the north is another reason for Turkey's hesitation to support U.S. policy, particularly as it might apply to northern Iraq. The government here fears that a sovereign Kurdish state there would further inflame separatist sentiment among Turkey's sizable Kurdish minority.

The Turkish armed forces, who frequently enter northern Iraq to fight the Kurdistan Workers Party, reportedly have contingency plans to prevent a flood of refugees from Iraq similar to that which occurred in the aftermath of the Gulf War.

But after a visit to Ankara two weeks ago by Marc Grossman, the assistant U.S. secretary of state for European affairs, and Gen. Joseph Ralston, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the early opposition to a Turkish role in a strike at Iraq has given way to more moderate statements. Officials here now suggest that Washington may be able to obtain Ankara's permission to use Incirlik if it chooses to make such a request.

"There has been a shift toward the United States in Ankara's attitude," wrote Sami Kohen, a columnist with the newspaper Milliyet, who pointed to statements by Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz underlining the threat posed to Turkey by Iraqi production of weapons of mass destruction. Yilmaz appears also to have softened the official tone against offensive use of Incirlik by declaring that any request for U.S. warplanes to use the base would be decided by parliament.

According to Kohen, the prime minister's latest assertions were in line with views held by the senior military command and President Suleyman Demirel.

U.S. personnel at Incirlik, meanwhile, acknowledge a heightened intensity while the possibility of a U.S. air offensive hovers over the region. "I'd be an idiot to think there wasn't a higher probability that we're going to war," said one pilot.

A ground crewmen said the contingency weapons loaded onto the F-16s he maintains for Northern Watch missions -- guided missiles and cluster bombs -- could be adapted easily for specified targets.

Asked if he believes Incirlik will be used in an attack on Iraq, Brig. Gen. Donald A. Lamontagne, commander of Operation Northern Watch, demurred, saying: "As you know, Incirlik was used during Desert Storm. I cannot comment . . . further."

As U.S. forces here wait for further word from Washington, many question whether they will be transferred out of Incirlik any time soon according to their standard rotation schedule of three weeks to six months. "We've been told to sit tight," one ground crew member said.