By Dixie Barlow
Washingtonpost.com Staff
March 1999

Once again, democracy in Africa's most-populous nation seems to be close at hand. In February 1999, Nigerians went to the polls and elected former military ruler Olusegun Obasanjo as the country's new civilian president, potentially ending 15 years of military rule. Under rules laid down by Nigeria's current military government, Obasanjo will be sworn in on May 29.

But Obasanjo's win is no guarantee of political stability. Irregular voting and claims of ballot fraud have already marred the legitimacy of his victory and led to political unrest. In March, militant youths protested the election result torching police stations and fighting battles with officers in Lagos. At least eight people were killed in the fighting in what analysts say could be just the beginning of turmoil in the country. Obasanjo has appealed for calm and asked for Nigerians to accept the election result.

Opportunity for the restoration of democracy came last summer when oppressive military leader Gen. Sani Abacha died in June. His successor, Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar, indicated that the shift would take place, but such intentions have been thwarted before in Nigeria. In 1993 the military regime nullified the presidential election, and its latest flawed attempt to return democracy failed. A year later, the supposed victor in the election, Chief Moshood Abiola, a rich businessman from the southwest who was also a Muslim, was imprisoned for declaring himself the winner.

This time a democratic transition seems to be taking shape. Abubakar removed himself from any candidacy, replaced Abacha allies from leadership in the states, released political prisoners and initiated a path to civilian rule leading to general elections and turnover to a freely elected president in May 1999. In December 1998, a high turnout of voters in elections for local leaders indicated the people's enthusiasm for civilian rule.

Human rights activists point out the shift to political liberalism is only partial and not all repressive practices have been abandoned, but some Western diplomats say that Abubakar's record of delivering on his pronouncements looks very good.

Nigeria's Loss of Promise
As a newly independent nation in 1960, Nigeria had much promise. The largest country in West Africa, it was rich in natural resources and human capital and had one of the most vibrant, literate and civil societies on the continent. It became one of the world's largest oil exporters, principally to the United States. But the potential to be the most powerful and progressive country in the region was squandered in Nigeria's lurching between elective governments and military strongmen. Its population, which could have thrived, now maintains a subsistence agricultural sector and must import its food, national income goes to service billions in foreign debt, and Nigeria is considered one of Africa's most repressive nations.

In 38 years Nigeria has experienced six coups d'etats, a presidential assassination, the region's bloodiest civil war (Biafra in 1967-70) and only 10 years of elected government. Every move to democracy has been stymied by the military, and yet each time the generals came to power it was to rescue the country from corrupt civilian rule. This switch and search for a constitutional and political arrangement that could constitute a viable nation and still serve a diverse population has confused the source of public discontent and diluted the national identity.

Cultural History
Nigeria, essentially an artificial creation of colonialism, is made up of many underlying layers seemingly at odds with the surface and a national identity is hard to find. The new state combined 250 to 400 ethnic groups, multiple languages, strong Muslim presence in the north and a predominant Christian influence in the southeast and southwest. Understanding the diversity of peoples and regions is central to comprehending the country's politics.

This varied cultural ecosystem bequeathed a fragmented society and political system. Over the years the weakly united country has been divided into more and more substates to mitigate the intensity of multiple traditionalism – political, ethnic and emotional ties of generations.

The short colonial rule of about seven decades unleashed rapid change and contributed to Nigeria's difficulties today. Expanding exports and developing infrastructure resulted in distorted economic growth that has since collapsed.

The Next Nigeria
Nigeria's democratic elections has advanced what could be Africa's most important political transformation since South Africa shed apartheid earlier this decade. In the shift toward more democratic governments in Africa, Nigeria remains the most influential nation.

"If it turns democratic . . . the strongmen of Africa will have no future," said Edem Kodjo, a former prime minister of Togo and secretary general of the Organization of African Unity. Many Nigerians, however, feel the election of Obasanjo, who commanded the army and ruled the country between 1976 and 1979, falls short of democracy.

The election "isn't the real transition to something democratic," said Kayode Fayemi, a Nigerian political scholar based in London, before the vote. "But it could be an opening of a political space that could let civil society slowly build democracy. It's the best we can hope for right now."