Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar speaks in a television broadcast July 20. (Reuters)

By Karl Vick
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, July 21, 1998: Page A1

LAGOS, Nigeria, July 20—The head of Nigeria's military government promised tonight that free elections will be held early next year and a civilian sworn in as president of Africa's most populous country on May 29, ending 15 years of rule by the armed forces.

In a sweeping televised address that took in all of the major questions left hanging by the sudden deaths of both of the nation's dominant political figures in the space of one month, Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar laid out what democracy advocates called a relatively prompt transition to civilian rule, which Nigeria has known for only 10 of its 38 years of independence.

To effect the transition, Abubakar invited the formation of new political parties that would promote candidates to replace the current military regime in "an unfettered electoral process."

Abubakar ordered the release of all remaining political prisoners detained by his predecessor, Gen. Sani Abacha, who died June 8. He also announced the dismantling of the three-year-old democratic transition plan that Abacha had turned into a mechanism for self-succession and the dissolution of the five state-approved political parties that all had made Abacha their presidential nominee.

"This administration has no desire whatsoever to succeed itself," Abubakar said. "It is clear that Nigerians want a country where fairness, justice and equity are not mere slogans. Nigerians want true democracy."

This country of 110 million people had been awaiting word on what political direction it would take ever since Abacha's unexpected demise after five repressive years in power thrust Abubakar into the role of military ruler. Abubakar's efforts to forge a new plan were thrown into upheaval with the death July 7 of Moshood Abiola, a political prisoner whom many Nigerians considered to be the country's duly elected president. Abacha had imprisoned Abiola in 1994 for claiming the right to rule because of his apparent victory in a 1993 presidential election that was annulled by the military, and Abiola died of a heart attack shortly before his expected release by Abubakar.

Reaction to Abubabkar's speech among democracy activists -- including a handful of political prisoners whom Abubakar freed last month -- was mixed. Although many elements of the plan are similar to transition schemes that past military governments had reneged on, several activists expressed relief that it was less drawn out than many had feared. Rumors circulated last week that Abubakar was mulling remaining in power for as long as 30 months.

"The timing is not too bad," said Abdulkarim Daiyabu, of the Movement for Justice in Nigeria.

"Maybe, considering all that will need to be done, one will not query the extension he has given to himself," said Abraham Adesanya, deputy chairman of the National Democratic Coalition.

Olisa Agbakoba, one of the nation's most prominent human rights advocates, said Nigeria's history shows its military is incapable of shedding power. Of the nine changes of government that preceded Abubakar's announcement, two resulted from elections, one from assassination and six from military coups.

"We've seen these kinds of statements before, in 1985, in 1992 and in 1993, when Abacha came into office," said Abgakoba, chairman of United Action for Democracy. "Simply put, there is no way the military can manage a genuine transfer of authority to civilian society."

Much of the military's unwillingness to surrender power has been attributed to the riches that the country's governing generals have amassed while in power -- and the desire of junior officers someday to share in that wealth. Abacha's five-year reign made him immensely rich -- a knowledgeable diplomat said credible estimates of his fortune range from $5 billion to $10 billion -- but left Nigeria a shambles.

By jailing politicians and journalists by the score, Abacha made the country an international pariah. Economic growth is near a standstill. The electrical grid teeters on collapse. Mile-long lines at service stations testify to the fact that the world's sixth-largest exporter of oil suffers chronic gasoline shortages.

In his address tonight, Abubakar appeared visibly distressed by Nigeria's international reputation. The only departure from a markedly wooden delivery came when he all but spat out a reference to the "embarrassment" of the country's reputation for corruption. He answered with an array of reform initiatives, from open bidding for government contracts to the possible privatization of public utilities, with the proceeds earmarked for social spending.

The general also appealed for patience from the international community, which has been warming to his government since Abacha's death.

The Clinton administration, which had largely cut off dealings with Abacha's regime because of its repression and reluctance to move toward democracy, reacted cautiously to Abubakar's proposals.

"This is an important development," State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said. "We want to study it carefully and clarify it with the government, but at first blush it appears to be a welcome step in the direction of a credible transition, the kind of step that the international community has been urging."

Emeka Anyaoku, the Nigerian-born secretary general of the Commonwealth, said the organization comprising Britain and its past and present possessions would take a close interest in the implementation of Abubakar's program for Nigeria, a former British colony.

"The release of political prisoners and detainees by the Nigerian authorities and the new program of transition to democracy announced by General Abubakar today provide further evidence of his commitment to national reconciliation and establishment of a credible process to democracy in Nigeria," Anyaoku said.

But activists here were anxious about some of the details of Abubakar's plan. "The taste of the pudding is in the eating," said Adesanya. "We'll watch closely how all of these things are put into practice."

One area of concern is Abubakar's rejection of calls to hand over power to a broad-based "government of national unity" during the transition. Several groups of democracy advocates had proposed placing the country in the hands of an appointed panel whose members would be drawn from each of six geographic regions and would serve two to four years.

Abubakar said he had considered the idea but concluded that appointing a civilian panel was no more appealing than extending the rule of the military's 15-member Provisional Ruling Council. "We will not substitute one undemocratic institution for another," he said.

Abubakar's plan to create an new electoral commission also raised fears that the transition would be stage-managed. Although he said he would annul recent state and local elections conducted through parties Abacha had authorized personally and would discard the dictator's election apparatus, Abubakar said his government will establish a new body to sanction political parties.

"The credibility of a political party will be in the polls when they win votes, not the stamp of approval by any government," Agekoba said.

Opposition figures were also disappointed that Abubakar declined to convene a constitutional convention, which several advocacy groups and scholars had encouraged as a means of ventilating regional tensions. The hope was that delegates would return Nigeria to the loose federation it had been before successive military regimes centralized power.

Instead, Abubakar said, the country will be asked to approve a constitution drafted under Abacha in 1994 and 1995 -- but which has never been made public.

"It might be an excellent document," Abgakoba said. "But the tension rising from the fact that we have been excluded from its writing overwhelms whatever its merits might be."