Nigerian Vows to Quit in Three Years

LAGOS, NIGERIA, OCT. 1 -- Head of state Gen. Sani Abacha extended military rule by three years today, promising that his regime will depart after leading sub-Saharan Africa's most populous nation through democratic reforms that will culminate in presidential elections.

In a taped broadcast to the nation, Abacha announced a program of reforms that includes fully lifting a ban on political activities and forming civilian local and state legislatures and a national assembly. He also commuted sentences of about 40 Nigerians accused of plotting to overthrow his government, but he did not say when they would be released from jail.

Diplomats and political analysts reacted sharply to the speech, calling the changes superficial and expressing disappointment over Abacha's extending his reign for another three years. Abacha, 53, took power during a coup in November 1993.

Critics were especially alarmed that Abacha refused to release political detainees, including Moshood Abiola, arrested last year after declaring himself winner of 1993's annulled presidential elections, which he reportedly won.

"They are not going to be let off the hook" with such a transition program, one diplomat said. "They think they've made bold moves, but we do not think that at all."

Nigeria fell into political turmoil after the 1993 annulment, which ignited riots and prompted the United States to cancel aid to Nigeria, ruled by military leaders for all but 10 years since gaining independence from Britain 35 years ago today.

In recent months, Abacha's regime has come under growing pressure from foreign governments, which have threatened economic sanctions against the West African nation of more than 100 million people. Criticism has intensified since July, when Abacha ordered the arrest of a group he accused of plotting a coup. They included former head of state Olusegun Obasanjo, the only Nigerian military ruler to voluntarily relinquish power in favor of civilian rule.

The accused were tried in secret by a military tribunal that reportedly handed down a number of death sentences, subject to final review by the Provisional Ruling Council, Nigeria's ruling body.

Supporters of those arrested in connection with the coup attempt said they could not take solace in Abacha's statement.

"He really hasn't told us anything," said Morenike Ransome-Kuti, daughter of Beko Ransome-Kuti, a democracy activist arrested last July and sentenced to life imprisonment for allegedly writing letters defending accused coup plotters. "He hasn't said to what extent he'll commute the sentences. What this means is that my dad probably won't be released until this regime leaves."

"We cannot take anything positive from this speech," said Frederick Fasehun, a leader of Nigeria's Campaign for Democracy. "We expected him to keep Abiola incarcerated, and he did. There were no surprises, really."

Abacha said he would not release Abiola because it is the duty of Nigeria's court system to determine the wealthy businessman's fate.

In his 45-minute address, Abacha announced a broad-ranging political program that included a plan to rotate Nigeria's top six political positions among six regions, an attempt to defuse ethnic tensions that have dogged the country throughout its history.

The system of rotating presidents, put forth in a draft constitution completed earlier this year, would be used for at least 30 years, Abacha said. The plan earned cautious praise from some political analysts.

"It is certainly a step in the right direction, if it can be implemented correctly," said Tunde Babawale, a political scientist at the University of Lagos.

Abacha announced the formation of a National Electoral Commission and said elections of state and local governments and legislatures would take place by September 1997. The military ruler abolished state legislatures shortly after grabbing power.

Along with restoring legislatures, Abacha announced that he was lifting bans on the publications of two major media organizations, Punch and Concord. The Guardian newspaper, whose ban had been lifted earlier, appeared on the streets for the first time today.

Abacha said his regime plans to leave on Oct. 1, 1998, but added that "the duration of the timetable {for the transition program} will be determined by the time required to complete each phase of the program."

That caveat left government opponents concerned that Abacha may not be committed to stepping down within three years.

"It gives him a way out," said Osaze Lanre Ehonwe, acting executive director of the Civil Liberties Organization, a democracy and human rights group. "Given our past experiences with military rulers, we have to take today's statement with a large grain of salt."

Ehonwe said the United States and other governments "should be as skeptical as Nigerians are about this transition. They should remain skeptical until the military proves its sincerity beyond a shadow of a doubt."

Britain's Foreign Office said it regretted "a lack of commitment to an early handover" to civilian rule.