Nigerian Oil Strikers Returning to Work

ABIDJAN, IVORY COAST, SEPT. 5 -- Most of Nigeria's oil workers returned to their jobs today after a two-month strike failed to force the military government to release jailed opposition leader Moshood Abiola.

The strike by a large segment of Nigeria's 250,000 oil workers aggravated a political crisis stemming from the military's annulment last year of presidential elections that Abiola is widely believed to have won. He was arrested and charged with treason in June after declaring himself president on the election's anniversary.

The political stalemate, economic paralysis resulting from crippling gasoline shortages, sabotage by oil workers and protests and riots in the southern cities of Lagos and Ibadan had posed the greatest challenge to the military regime of Gen. Sani Abacha since it seized power last November.

There have been growing fears that Nigeria, West Africa's military and economic powerhouse, was sliding into a conflict that would destabilize neighboring countries and severely drive up international oil prices.

"More of our staff has come in today" than any day since the strike began on July 4, said a spokesman for the Shell Petroleum Development Co. of Nigeria, which produces about half of Nigeria's oil.

Shell's production had fallen by 50 percent, but loading activities were resuming, industry sources said. In addition, at least two oil companies had withdrawn statements saying they were incapable of meeting contractual obligations because of the strike, the sources said.

Labor union leaders, who were replaced by the government last month but still maintain the support of rank-and-file members, appeared to be split over officially calling off the work stoppage and did not issue a statement. The government had attempted to end the strike by calling back retired petroleum workers and proclaiming a no-work, no-pay policy.

Union leaders and strikers were disillusioned by the lack of public support. "We have done our best," Arthur Onoviran, spokesman for one of the striking unions, told the Associated Press. "We knew when it started that it was up to all Nigerians to save the country, and not the oil workers alone."

Abacha has been able to consolidate his authority by dismissing labor leaders, intimidating and arresting strikers and opposition supporters, and turning to his advantage the opposition's disarray.

He also replaced his navy and army chiefs of staff two weeks ago, prompted by rumors of an imminent coup and divisions within the military government over how to deal with Abiola.

The inability of Nigeria's opposition to remain united has scuttled efforts to oust the military, which has ruled this country of 111 million people for all but 10 of the nation's 34 years of independence from Britain.

"The opposition has been bedeviled by all kinds of problems," said John Kayode Fayemi, a London-based Nigerian political analyst. "It will be difficult to challenge {the military} consistently and successively, because you'll always have people who will collaborate" with the generals.

The Abacha regime, like the previous one of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, has used Nigeria's oil wealth -- which accounts for at least 80 percent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings -- to buy loyalty, reflecting the corruption that has inspired anti-military sentiment, said Fayemi.

Abacha, in a message to the National War College today, restated his commitment to return Nigeria to civilian rule.

But he did not set a date for a transfer of power, saying that this will be determined by a national constitutional conference that will draw up a new charter aimed at restoring democracy.

"This administration wishes to reemphasize the determination of the military to pursue all phases of its sociopolitical transition program with dedication and military precision, but we need social stability to accomplish this task," Abacha said, according to the Reuter news agency.

Information and Culture Minister Jerry Gana acknowledged that some in the military wanted civilians to run the country and said Abacha will announce a departure date for his regime in January.

But it is uncertain whether the government will be able to survive for that long, analysts said. While Abacha has won this round against his opponents, it is likely his authority will be challenged again in the coming months.

"Until you resolve the basic injustice that led to the oil crisis in the first place, it's going to be difficult to return to business as usual and the international community will not take Nigeria seriously," said Fayemi.

The problem lies in the annulment of last year's elections. Abiola, a millionaire publisher and shipping magnate, enjoys popular support in his ethnic Yoruba homeland in the southwest, where oil is concentrated, but many other influential Nigerians, largely in the Hausa-Fulani north, mistrust him, fearing he will isolate them.

Eastern Igbos traditionally question the word of Yorubas because they were betrayed by the south when the eastern region of Biafra broke away from Nigeria in the late 1960s. The ensuing civil war left more than 1 million people dead.

Meanwhile, Abiola is languishing in his jail cell awaiting the resumption of his treason trial on Sept. 12. The Nigeria Medical Association has said his health is deteriorating.