Michael Dobbs

The government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has accepted a peace plan designed to end the conflict in Yugoslavia and allow the safe return of ethnic Albanian refugees to Kosovo.

Washington Post foreign correspondent Michael Dobbs joined us us from the Yugoslavian capital of Belgrade on Friday, June 4, to discuss the possibility of peace in Kosovo.

Read the transcript below.

Washingtonpost.com: Thanks for joining us Michael. Can you give us the latest on the reaction from Belgrade on the peace plan, and whether you've seen signs that Yugoslav troops will begin to withdraw its troops from Kosovo any time soon?

Michael Dobbs: I think most Serbs are relieved that the bombing will eventually stop after 73 days of continuous air attacks. But they also understand that the agreement represents a defeat and some people are asking whether it was worth holding out for so long for such a result. So, there's a mixture of relief and anger, both at NATO and their own political leaders. The withdrawal of Yugoslav troops has not yet begun and will depend upon talks between the Yugoslav army and NATO generals over the weekend.

Bucharest, Romania: Is there any assurance that Milosevic would not try live up to his reputation and in order to survive, would he attempt to inflame another nationalistic conflict by turning against Romanian and Hungarian minorities in Vojvodina?

Michael Dobbs: This is always a possibility but the number of potential conflicts is getting fewer. The most logical next conflict will probably be with Montenegro rather than with the Romanians and Hungarians of Vojvodina. There already have been some signs of future crisis between Montenegro and Belgrade. But Yugoslav politics are in a state of flux right now and it's difficult to predict what Milosevic's next step will be.

NY, NY: Are the Serb people and government prepared for another option rather than autonomy for Kosovo within Serbia that now after what has taken place since last year appears quite impossible - separate republic within FRY, independence, or Kosovo partition?

Michael Dobbs: Nobody here is talking about a separate republic for Kosovo and this is not something the Albanians themselves want anymore. They want full independence. NAto

Wauwatosa,WI: Will the KLA ever put down there arms? Does this general agreement even cover the fact of a disarmed KLA? Will the KLA attack the NATO Troops since they will feel betrayed if they are not given their independence? Is independence or a greater Albania 3 years away?

Michael Dobbs: The agreement provides for the "demilitarization" of the KLA, but it is probable that the KLA will resist attempts to make it disarm completely. It is quite possible that NATO will face problems from the KLA side now, particularly if all the Albanian refugees are unable to return to their homes. That would leave a disaffected Albanian minority in Macedonia, a potential new source of instability.

berkeley, ca: Is the Serb voice on the war over Kosovo being successfully conveyed by Western journalists to Western publics?

Michael Dobbs: My colleagues and I here in Belgrade have tried over the last two and a half months have tried to report the Serb point of view and the suffering of the Serb civilian population. We believe that it is as important to have reporters in Belgrade and Serbia as in the other countries that have been involved by the war. We believe that our reports have been comprehensive and objective.

belgrade, serbia: Why are the 360 killed Albanian civilians regarded as the victims of Serbian atrocities and more than 1 800 Yugoslav civilians killed in NATO bombing referred to as collateral damage?

Michael Dobbs: We reporters have never referred to Serbian civilian victims as "collateral damage." We have described those killed or injured in this war, for whatever reason, as a victim. That said, however, the NATO spokesmen have a point when they say they did not deliberately set out to kill civilians. The massacres that took place on the ground in Kosovo were clearly carried out deliberately.

Warrenton, VA: The peace agreement seems to have some glaring loopholes in it. In the interest of getting this mess over with have we caved on some key points? Or is there still more negotiating to do?

Michael Dobbs: There is obviously a lot of negotiating left on the details of the implementation of the agreements reached on Thursday. It is unclear, for example, how Serb troops can withdraw if the NATO air campaign is continuing. Also, there is a risk that a full withdrawal of Serb troops will result in a security vacuum in Kosovo, prior to the entry of NATO troops. These matters will all be discussed by NATO and Yugoslav commanders this weekend. I think the agreement is closer to NATO's demands than the Serbian position, but NATO has agreed that Kosovo should remain part of Serbia, which was doubtful at Rambouillet.

Halifax NS: Will these developments -peace conditions- weaken the Serb grip on Montenegro? -Hope so!-

Michael Dobbs: In the short term, probably yes, but it is unclear whether Milosevic might try to stir things up in Montenegro over the long term as a way of diverting attention from the economic crisis in Serbia. Montenegro could be the next crisis.

Greenbelt, Maryland: Considering all the damage being inflicted inside Kosovo by both NATO bombing and the Serb forces, is the remaining infrastructure adequate to properly support the return of the refugees? Is there any talk yet about who is going to be picking up the check for rebuilding the region?

Michael Dobbs: Europe and the United States will probably be left with the bill for most of the reconstruction. Nobody else has the money to pay for reconstruction. While there is much devastation in Kosovo, I suspect that many refugees will want to return home as quickly as possible, even if their homes have been destroyed.

New York, NY: Milosevic has a big stack of signed agreements which he never really honored. To your knowledge, was the Kosovar people's opinion taken into consideration? As long as the Serbs agree doesn't mean that it's the best solution for stability in the region. To me it looks like the victims have no say about their future. What do you think about that?

Michael Dobbs: It's true that they weren't directly involved in the latest negotiations, but the whole purpose of the war has been to permit Kosovars to return to their homes in conditions of security. Short of full independence, I don't see what more NATO could do to protect the interests of the Albanian Kosovars. The Serb minority in Kosovo also has legitimate rights and interests that need to be protected.

Sacramento, CA: The peace plan approved by the Serbian parliament appears to grant all of the conditions set down by NATO. What led to this decision? Was the impact on the NATO bombing on Serbia and the threat that it would continue unabated for many months the reason that Milosevic decided to cut his losses and agree? Was NATO's bombing having a much bigger impact on his military assets than was reported in the media? Or was it the impact on Serbia's infrastructure and people that finally persuaded him to quit?

Michael Dobbs: I think that Milosevic came to the conclusion that he could not win this war against NATO, and further delay in accepting NATO's conditions would only result in more destruction for his country. But, see my article in today's Post for a fuller analysis of his motivations.

Taghkanic, NY: Did the Serbs ever shoot back at NATO planes? It appears none were shot down during the 10 weeks of air raids.

Michael Dobbs: Well, the Serbs shot down at least one NATO plane because they showed everybody the wreckage and there may have been other incidents. But, I don't believe Serb claims that they shot down dozens of NATO warplanes. In general, the Serbs saved their air defenses from destruction by NATO by using them sparingly. This was probably a sensible tactical decision on their part as it forced NATO to fly at higher altitudes than they would ideally have liked.

Los Angeles, CA: I find it incredible to hear
the Milosevic has called it quits. I would have thought his very life would be in danger if he caved in after all the bloodshed and damage that has been done to Yugoslavia. How does he hope to survive now? I expect to read, he has been shot, in tomorrows news. I can't believe our good fortune.

Washingtonpost.com: Michael, is Milosevic's life or political career imperiled because of his endorsement of the peace accord?

Michael Dobbs: His political position now is probably no weaker than it would have been had he signed on to the original Rambouillet document proposed by NATO that could have led to the independence of Kosovo from Serbia within three years by referendum. Throughout his political career, Milosevic has demonstrated great skill in extricating himself from difficult situations, so I think it is premature to say that his political career is over.

Bethesda, Md.: I've heard that hard-liners such as Vojislav Seselj, head of nationalist Serbian Radical Party, said he will quit the government because of Milosevic's acceptance of the deal. What is this recent news doing to the balance of power in the Serbian parliament. Are there signs that Milosevic's power and influence may be weakening?

Michael Dobbs: In the short term, it's probably shifted political power away from the extreme nationalists led by Vojislav Seselj to more moderate figures such as Vuk Draskovic, a former deputy prime minister who was forced out of the government a month ago after calling for a peace settlement with NATO. However, Milosevic himself remains the most powerful politician in Serbia, if only because of the weakness of his potential opponents.

Rosslyn, Va.: What are the economic impacts of NATO airstrikes on Yugoslavia and how long does Belgrade estimate it will take for them to recover to pre-war conditions?

Michael Dobbs: Pre-war conditions weren't great to begin with. By some estimates, the war has set Yugoslavia back by at least a decade. Many of its factories and bridges have been destroyed. On the other hand, much of this was outdated technologically. Yugoslavia desperately needs to modernize its economy, but it is unclear where the funds for investment will come from, particularly if Milosevic remains in power. Western governments have suggested they will not help in Serbia's reconstruction as long as Milosevic remains in power.

Minneapolis, MN: What is the role of Madeleine Albright in the apparent peace settlement over Kosovo and how does it augur for her future? She has a year and a half to go before the current Administration must leave power. What will she do?

Michael Dobbs: Madeleine Albright, like other U.S. leaders, has a mixed record on this war. On the one hand, U.S. diplomacy and persistence have helped to bring the war to an end on what are essentially western terms. On the other hand, the U.S. and Albright made serious miscalculations about the staying power of the Serbs and Milosevic's reaction to the initial NATO ultimatum. I think that the Serbian political analyst Aleksa Djlias was right when he predicted, in an interview with me, that the war would end with a victory for the West, but it would be a pyrrhic victory, because of the enormous costs attached.

WEst River MD: It appears that General Clark was the most instrumental in keeping NATO together, in spite of all the controversy over Rules of Engagement, non-use of ground troop, etc.

Is he the "hero" in this? Think there is a political future for him?

Michael Dobbs: I do not think there are any unblemished heroes in this war. Wars like this are messy and tragic, and lead to many casualties, so it is difficult to speak of heroes. In the end, however, even though the war may have begun badly for NATO, NATO leaders can congratulate themselves that it ended reasonably well.

WASHINGTON,DC: EVERYONE IS ASSUMING THAT SINCE MILOSEVIC HAS NOW BEEN
LABELED A WAR CRIMINAL THAT
ONCE HE IS REMOVED ALL THAT ILLS THAT AREA WILL GO AWAY WITH HIM, WHEN IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL HARDLINERS BELOW HIM THAT WILL GIVE HIM A RUN FOR THE TITLE HITLER OF THE 90'S. DO YOU THINK MILOSEVIC AND THE REST OF THEM WILL EVER COME TO JUSTICE?

Michael Dobbs: So far, the main indicted war criminals in Bosnia have not been brought to the court in the Hague, and there is probably less chance that Milosevic will be brought before such a court than Radovan Karadzic. However these charges make it very difficult for him to lead a normal life. For example, it will be very difficult for him to leave Yugoslavia in the future without facing arrest.

Washingtonpost.com: That's all the time we have. Thanks to everyone who participated and thanks to Michael Dobbs.

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